Competition becomes predatory in oversupplied global long steel market

The global long steel products market is oversupplied and overcrowded. The situation has worsened and is now structural. The competition in the global market is predatory.  Margins are dead. The only strategy is cashflow and turnover. Whoever can ship first, wins. Whoever negotiates for $5/mt more, loses the order. Every confirmed business is a major success. Moreover, without the US market, competition may become brutal.

Latest US blanket 50 percent Section 232 duty marks unprecedented shift

The latest US decision to impose a blanket 50 percent Section 232 duty on all steel imports marks an unprecedented shift – one that severely impacts importers while handing a windfall to domestic producers. Although there was previously a similar measure targeting imports from Turkey, this universal application is unparalleled. What makes this especially jarring is its immediate enforcement, affecting cargoes due to arrive soon, offering no transition period or due process. This abruptness feels inconsistent with the values and principles we have long associated with the US marketplace – predictability, fairness, and rule of law.

New US decision cuts its market off from rest of world, importers handed long vacation

If the 50 percent Section 232 duty holds, it may ironically render the US the most expensive steel market globally, shutting it off from the world at a time when collaboration and balance are most needed. It seems importers in the US have been handed a long, scorching summer of vacation, just as they brace to absorb the financial fallout of all US-bound cargoes. These are extraordinary times and must be navigated with clarity, unity, and resolve.

Demand still weak in Europe and Turkey, with imports putting pressure on prices

Demand is still soft in the European market and imports are putting a ceiling on any potential price increases. Unless there is an actual pickup in end-user consumption, prices will hover at current levels or drop, especially if more cheap Asian billet flows in. Demand in Turkey is still lacking also, but more important is that, with the current iron ore and coal prices, there will be more supply pressure from Far Eastern and Southeast Asian suppliers. Far Eastern and Southeast Asian origin steel billet prices are going down almost every day.

Scrap-based producers falling behind in terms of costs

Scrap-based producers are getting priced out. Billet from Asia is cheaper than melting scrap. There is almost no point in running a melt-shop when you can just roll. This shift reshuffles power, as cheap billet exporters win and EAF-based mills are now considered high-cost producers.

Chinese long steel exporters start to push out Southeast Asians

Southeast Asian mills, who had dominated the market, are now being quietly pushed out by China. Chinese long product exports surged by over 100 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2025. Reduced blast furnace costs, falling domestic demand, and export subsidies mean this wave of Chinese exports will not slow as it is policy-driven, not market-driven. A serious displacement is taking place. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia are all fighting for markets. Even South Korean mills, who were deemed to be bulletproof previously, are now closing lines for the first time in decades. China is stable, but prices are not going up and their steel is cheap, hoping for new export markets. Oil prices are also weak which is good for some players in the steel market, terrible for others.

Market currently very unstable, outlook unsatisfactory, seems to depend on political decisions

The market is currently very unstable. No one is making money. Everyone is quoting, but very few are actually booking orders. The outlook is unsatisfactory and seems to depend on political decisions.

OECD: Some brighter prospects in ASEAN and MENA regions

The recently published OECD Steel Outlook 2025 states, “Demand in the OECD area will remain roughly constant, while Chinese demand will decline appreciably due to the downturn in construction and structural shifts in China’s economy. Prospects are brighter in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) areas, where demand will grow strongly.”

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