The 92nd meeting of IREPAS (the International Rebar Exporters and Producers Association) was held in Athens on April 27-29 in conjunction with the SteelOrbis Spring’25 Conference.

There were 143 representatives from 49 different producers among the 502 registered delegates from a total of 58 different countries. There were also 97 registrations representing 50 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that the global long steel products market is currently overwhelmed by a spiral of duties and trade measures and protectionism such as has never been experienced before. He stated that the recently created uncertainties in the market on top of the already existing problems, the markets are now somewhat lost.

The IREPAS chairman added that the current environment is not bright and the level of competition in the global market is very strong, being almost at maximum levels.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Challenging year ahead, market will be much slower in H2

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, noted that the EU steel industry has started the year quite well, though steel production in the region was low in the first quarter. He highlighted that the new German government is expected to ease the pressure from the uncertainties on the market, which may boost steel production. Noting that the green transition in the EU seems to be postponed, indicating that there seems to be no viable transition until at least 2030, he stated that a lot of mills in the EU will start shifting from the blast furnace route to the electric arc furnace route in the next five to 10 years and there will be uneven demand for scrap until that time. Addressing the scrap export restriction plans in the EU, he stated that, as scrap demand is low in the region now, any restrictions would put pressure on the steel industry but may also lead to more bureaucratized trade between scrap generators and steelmakers.

Regarding the Trump administration’s tariff actions, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee stated that, in the first few months this year, sales to the US were at enormous levels as a new tariff was anticipated. Noting that EU-based mills were running at high capacity to export to the US before the implementation of new measures, he said he believes that the market will be much slower in the second half of this year. He added that Trump’s second term will be much different than his first term. In addition, he expressed the belief that, despite the actions taken by the US, Canada and Mexico will not impose tax on steel exports to the US as the US is their biggest trade partner and a restriction would hurt their own industries.

Björkman stated that iron ore prices have been fluctuating at around $100/mt CFR, compared to $89/mt CFR seen in September 2024, due to higher production at the end of last year and early this year. He noted that, if China lowers steel production and the general output of iron ore increases, these two factors together will result in lower iron ore prices.

Traders at IREPAS: No reduction in US tariffs expected, trade conditions remain challenging

F. D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, stated that, although the US imposing new 25 percent tariffs on imports from the countries previously exempted from the Section 232 measures seems like an advantage for the countries such as Egypt and Turkey which were already subject to 25 percent tariffs, only 18 percent of total imports into the US was from the Section 232-paying countries and 82 percent was from the exempted countries. He added that, despite the advantages some countries will gain, there will be no improvement in the market conditions given the economic uncertainties and the general market slowdown. Also, he said he believes that there will be no reduction in the US tariffs.

Looking at the EU, he said there have been some reductions in the import quota volumes, resulting in more challenging trade conditions. Considering the increased sales of wire rod and HRC over the past quarter from the ASEAN region to the EU, Mr. Baysal noted that, even though there are some restrictions on certain ASEAN countries, the EU is now more open to those countries compared to its old traditional markets given the free trade agreements between the EU and some Southeast Asian countries.

Mr Baysal added that he foresees no reduction in China’s exports and capacity utilization going forward.

Producers at IREPAS: Markets in unknown territory because of tariffs

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, pointed out that the hot topic during the producers committee meeting was tariffs and their effect on business, adding that this is completely unknown territory and that nobody has any idea where things are headed at the moment, which makes it very difficult to conduct business.

He said that, as the Chinese domestic market is not doing so well, China will still be the main factor depressing prices as it is heavily dependent on exports and its prices are quite low compared to those of other exporters. He went on to say that the stimulus package is not helping much at the moment to boost to market, which is why China is selling billet to countries like Turkey and many other countries.

The IREPAS chairman noted that, as billet is a competitive alternative to scrap in terms of price, particularly Turkish mills will keep buying billet, adding that, as long as prices are at the current levels buying billets is much more profitable, even though the lead times from Asia are two to three times longer.

Commenting on the GCC shifting from being an importer to being an exporter, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that the reason they are exporting is that they have overcapacity, and are selling to the EU, especially Germany, and to North Africa and Israel. He indicated that the answer to the question on whether their exports will continue depends on how infrastructure projects will take shape in the region in the coming period and how much of that demand the local market can absorb: otherwise, they will continue to export.