Mills struggle to make ends meet in global longs market amid severe competition

Demand is very weak and the situation remains difficult in the global long steel products market. Mills are cutting production, protectionist measures are continuing full speed ahead, while China and other countries in the region are exporting a lot, putting pressure on prices. There is very severe competition in the market and every producer is fighting with its last penny in order to keep operating. Imports displaced by US tariffs are searching for homes, causing worldwide disruptions and any demand is contested by multiple origins.

Demand may show some improvement after the holiday season

The holiday season is over and we may observe relatively better demand in the coming months. For the last few weeks, a small price increase has been seen in Chinese domestic market, which has had a positive impact but further developments in China need to be observed. Anticipated interest rate cuts may also create a positive atmosphere in the global longs market. The price of scrap has moved sideways and the main problem is that mills are operating with no profits due to low capacity-utilization, which creates real damage for the future.

Imports still flood into Europe, summer production halts may support market balance

Imports continue to flood into Europe and demand there is weak. However, with European mills cutting production over the summer there is at least a chance of some balance returning to the market in the fourth quarter of the year. Whether this leads to a real turnaround remains to be seen. German domestic prices dropped substantially from June to August but now mills are trying to push prices back up again and recover some lost ground. Activity is still very slow, but the expectation is that September will be a better month.

Court appeals against Trump’s tariffs create further uncertainty

US President Trump has now had five of his tariff rulings challenged by courts of appeals. This will throw the market into uncertainty, more than before. It may take at least six months to have the appeals go through the court system all the way to the Supreme Court.

Domestic supply meets most demand in US longs market, prices soften a little

In the US, demand is very soft. With little to no imports, domestic supply seems to be meeting demand, which is why prices have not moved up even with the 50 percent duty on imports. On the contrary, most prices are moving down a little each week. Capacity utilization is still under 80 percent despite six months of “tariff protection”. More capacity is coming online, which means that the capacity utilization percentage will probably move down further. The market seems to be waiting for interest rate cuts. If the cut is just 0.25 percent, it will not be enough to stimulate the economy. Most stockists expect a reduction or a change in import duties, which is why they prefer to wait, instead of importing now in order to restock.

Current market is unstable and unpredictable, with an unsatisfactory outlook

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable. Prices are within long-term trends, but market fundamentals and economic policies are unpredictable. The outlook of the market for the next quarter is also unstable and unsatisfactory, with weak demand and policy uncertainty pointing to continued weakness of the market.

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