19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at InterContinental Barcelona

Day 2: Monday, May 8, 2023

09:00 – 09:10                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:10 – 10:50                    SESSION ONE: Long Products and macro economy

- Long products market outlook

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group 

- Keynote Speech :Eng Ahmed Ezz, Chairman, Ezz Industries

- Macroeconomic overview

Pedro Videla, Professor and Head of the Economics Department, IESE Business School

10:50 – 11:20                     Networking break

11:20 – 13:00                     SESSION TWO: Critical changes in markets

- Spanish steel market outlook

Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, Chief Economist, UNESID

- Turkish steel market outlook

Dr. Veysel Yayan, Secretary General, Turkish Steel Producers Association (TSPA)

- Chinese steel market outlook

• Outlook for Chinese steel production and consumption in 2023 compared to the previous year. How will the different steel-consuming industries perform?
• What steps is China is taking towards green technologies?
• How long will the increase of its EAF-based steel capacities take?
• Perspective for semis imports in China in the next few years
• With the Chinese steel industry’s ongoing focus on enlarging EAF-based production, what is the outlook for scrap supply? Will imports of scrap increase?
• China’s strategy to secure iron ore supply both from domestic mines and overseas investments

Frank (Shaoliang) Zhong, Deputy Director General, World Steel Association / Chief Representative, World Steel Association Beijing Office

- US trade policy and steel: has anything really changed post-Trump?

• The current state of US Trade measures
• Economic policies affecting steel import trade
• Comparison with past Trump administration policies

Matthew Nolan, Partner, Arent Fox LLP and Bulent R. Hacioglu, Managing Partner, Trade Resources Company

13:00 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                  Cocktail Reception InterContinental Barcelona

Day 3: Tuesday, May 9, 2023

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

As expected, things are getting more difficult for exporters in the global steel market. The EU opened fire with an antidumping investigation on HRC imports from Turkey, with Turkey firing back with duties on steel products from the EU. Canada started a similar investigation against imports of heavy plates from several countries, while Egypt has been working on a 10 percent duty. Accordingly, the world market is shrinking further and Russian mills are taking the lead and dominating the market. It will be a real game of survival for a while and the cost of production is the key.

Global longs consumption still very uncertain, prices move up especially in Asia

While prices are heading up (particularly in Asia), consumption in the global long steel products market seems very uncertain. Demand for physical steel is held up by the optimism in the futures market. This is somewhat worrying for the supply and demand situation in the market if the support from the futures market were to weaken. On the bright side, despite the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic the World Steel Association (worldsteel) in its recent report still foresees an increase in steel demand in China in the current year, predicting a rise of one percent from 2019 to 916.5 million mt. This helps restrict the fall in global steel demand in 2020 to an anticipated drop of 6.4 percent, whereas demand in the rest of the world excluding China is foreseen to contract by 14.2 percent compared to 2019. Meanwhile, market players are hoping that June and July will be months of stabilization before a recovery later in the year.

Brazilian steel industry faces serious demand crisis

Brazilian crude steel production continued to fall in April amid the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Its crude and rolled steel outputs in the given month fell by 39 percent and 36 percent, respectively, while its semis output declined by 24 percent, all year on year, according to the Brazilian Institute of Steel (IABr). Domestic steel sales in April decreased by 36 percent year on year, in line with apparent consumption of steel products which collapsed by 35 percent. Due to the adverse conditions in the international market, Brazilian steel exports fell by 17 percent year on year. These data demonstrate the seriousness of the demand crisis that the Brazilian steel industry is facing, which led it to operate with only 42.2 percent of its installed capacity in April. As a result, in the first four months of the year Brazil’s crude steel production fell by 14 percent year on year to 10 million mt. The output of finished steel products contracted by nine percent  year on year to 7.1 million mt due to the decrease in apparent consumption in the period under review (down nine percent to 6.2 million mt). In the January-April period, Brazil’s steel imports contracted by 18 percent to 705,000 mt, while its steel exports fell by five percent year on year to 4.1 million mt.

Mills in EU struggle, buyers only order what they need and wait for lower prices

The construction business in the EU has been hit harder than expected by the Covid-19 crisis. New building permits in May were substantially lower than in March and April and many projects have either been put on hold or stopped. The public sector still has big infrastructure projects in the pipeline. However, since the Covid-19 crisis has kept everybody at home for almost three months, these projects have been delayed significantly. Cut-and-benders are trying to grab any order available as they start to believe the next one will be at a lower price anyhow. EU-based mills are selling hand to mouth as buyers will only order what they need and wait for prices to fall further. Italian mills are selling at almost any price to collect cash, and this has pulled the market downwards. The same goes in Poland where mills are pushing clients into placing orders by lowering their prices almost daily. At the same time, scrap prices have increased, which is a toxic combination for cut-and-benders and the mills. The biggest threat for importers is the ongoing discussions in Brussels on the reevaluation of safeguard measures. The EU is once again changing  the rules in the middle of the game under pressure from EUROFER.

Demand recovers in ferrous scrap market

On the other hand, demand in the ferrous scrap market has recovered and the raw material inventories that were depleted have had to be rebuilt as the markets have been opening up after the lockdowns. Activity has been general and has taken the markets by surprise.

Stimulus packages and normalization procedures provide a boost

Stimulus packages around the world are acting as fuel. There are concerted efforts to avoid a U- or L-shaped economic rebound, with a V-shaped rebound being what the financial markets are seeking. Finally, normalization procedures have been initiated in many countries. The automotive sector is back in business in various countries, e.g., in the US, EU and Turkey.

China’s recovery a very important factor

China has acted as a powerhouse in the past month for commodities. Industrial activity in the country returned to normal in May. The quick return of Chinese companies to the market and China becoming an importer have been very positive factors.

Japanese production cut is good news for other exporting countries

Japanese mills have announced a production cut of approximately 20 million mt, which of course is not a positive development for them but does represent good news for other exporters in the global market.

Difficult to talk about the existence of a global market nowadays

We cannot really talk about the existence of a global market nowadays. There will be 100 percent self-sufficiency in Asia in the medium term and then exporters will be wandering in search of the next market. Every producer outside of China is struggling with insufficient volumes and, under such circumstances, competition can come from anywhere at any time. The mills in many countries have to follow what the Russian mills are offering in the market and then to decide whether they can compete.

Future remains very much uncertain but some signs of optimism seen

The current status of the market is clearly unstable. The markets are still assessing the damages from the Covid-19 pandemic and the future remains very much uncertain. But at least investors and industries are showing optimism.

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19:00 – 22:00                        Welcome cocktail at Hilton Duesseldorf

Day 2: Monday, September 23, 2019

09:00 – 09:15                   Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:15 – 10:15                     SESSION ONE – Global Markets: What are the future challenges and opportunities?

-  Global economic developments and expectations

- Impact of protectionism and safeguard measures on European economic growth.
- Impact of trade wars between US and China on global economy.
- Most recent expectations in economic growth rates.
- Most recent developments in major economies such as China, US and EU.
- Short and long term expectations in major economies such as China, US and EU.
- Risks and challenges.

Ulrich Leuchtmann, Commerzbank AG / Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy, Research Division

-     World steel outlook 2019-2020 and challenges ahead

Adam Szewczyk, World Steel Association / Head, Data Management

10:40 – 11:00                     Networking break

11:00 – 12:30                     SESSION TWO – Steel markets: Industry outlook and market trends

-    Long products market outlook

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

Daniel González, Celsa Group / International Commercial Director

-     Southeast Asian steel industry and outlook

• Supply and demand situation
• New investments
• Exports of steel long products
• Imports of steel long products

Wee Jin Yeoh, SEAISI (South East Asia Iron and Steel Institute) / Secretary General Designate

-     International trade in steel products : Trends and the impacts of protectionism

• What were the major steel trade flows 5 years ago, what are those as of today and what will they be in the future?
• Who were the 10 biggest exportes of steel and raw materials 5 years ago and who are they today?
• Who were the 10 biggest importers of steel and raw materials 5 years ago and who are they today?
• Pros and cons of protectionism for the European, American and Asian steel markets and industries.
• What kind of impacts could be seen on steel production, the producers, and the end users of steel withon those markets affected by protectionism?

Keynote Speaker : Dr. Matthias Bauer, European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE) / Senior Economist 

12:30 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                  Cocktail Reception at Hilton Duesseldorf

Day 3: Tuesday, September 24, 2019

09:30 – 11:00                   SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

Supply and demand in the global long steel products market remain balanced as exports from China are still not exerting too much pressure on the international market.

Strong demand seen all around the world 

The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has updated its forecast for global steel demand for 2017, forecasting around seven percent growth compared to 2016. Obviously, the main reason for this huge growth is the rise in the official demand figure for China; i.e., +12.4 percent. Such a sharp rise is mainly because the demand previously satisfied by the closed outdated induction furnaces – which were not included in the official figures – is now satisfied by the mainstream steelmakers in China and thus is recorded in the official demand figures for 2017. Nevertheless, demand is strong all around the world and the global capacity utilization rate of 73.5 percent in September is the highest of recent months and years.

Supply has increased in certain areas, shipping has become more expensive

Having that said, prices differ in various regions and markets due to diverse factors. Supply has shown some increase in certain areas and protectionist measures also play an important role in relation to the supply-demand balance. Freight has been very tight over the past month and this has made shipping more expensive.

Local US market weakens despite better GDP growth

The US domestic market is weaker, despite better GDP growth. It is now much harder to import into the US as domestic prices are either similar to or lower than import prices. The preliminary antidumping rates announced against imports of wire rods from certain countries hit the higher-value grades hard, whereas simple grades ex-Turkey received a duty rate of below 10 percent.

Significant price declines seen in Turkey and UAE

On a separate note, domestic billet and rebar price declines of over 10 percent in the space of one month have changed the mood of optimism which had been observed in the Turkish market in early October. Prices in the UAE market have weakened by an even bigger margin.

Signs of a disconnect appear between suppliers and buyers

There seems to be a disconnect appearing between suppliers and buyers who prefer to follow a wait-and-see approach either due to too much inventory or in the hope of lower prices.

International output and demand expected to be strong amid planned output caps in China

So far, mills have been able not only to pass on production cost increases but also to increase their margins. With five million metric tons of steel products per month being exported from China, only half the volume seen in the previous year, and as planned production caps in China during the winter months will further depress exports, we can expect general international production and demand to be strong.

Global ferrous scrap demand to maintain strength as Chinese steel exports diminish

Ferrous scrap has also been characterized by strong demand and will likely see continued solid demand outside of China as Chinese steel exports diminish.

Worldsteel: More steel is not the answer for anyone

Worldsteel has once again reminded its members that more steel is not the answer for anyone. Producers/suppliers are now following prices lower, but slowly.

Regionalization of steel business is driving up local demand levels

Demand is still very good in certain markets, for instance in the EU. The regionalization of the steel business has been driving up local demand levels.

Graphite electrode prices drifting to lower levels but EAF output still to be impacted

Raw material prices are now more in check, and graphite electrode prices are drifting down to lower levels from recent peaks and expected shortages are now estimated at 10 percent instead of at higher numbers. However, the shortage of graphite electrodes is still expected to put a cap on EAF production next year.

Competition still strong depending on region 

Competition in the market is still strong depending on the region, but spreads are one step above the situation that we had some months ago.

Quite satisfactory outlook for global market going forward though US demand raises concerns

The global long products market is stable in general with quite a satisfactory outlook going forward. If the US approves further protectionist measures, this might push scrap prices up again. However, demand has not picked up in the US, which is a concern going forward.

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