The DOC preliminarily determined that POSCO and POSCO International Corporation (PIC), treated as a single entity, did not sell subject merchandise in the United States at prices below normal value during the period of review. The DOC has preliminarily determined a weighted-average dumping margin of 0.00 percent for the collapsed entity.

The all-others rate is 41.10 percent.

The overall business environment in the global long steel products market has deteriorated again. Everything is even more difficult and complexities are increasing further. Nevertheless, the apparent de-escalation of the conflict involving Iran could mark an important turning point. If geopolitical risks continue to ease, we may be approaching the bottom of the current market cycle.

International rebar market now weaker compared to one month ago

The international reinforcing bars market is now weaker than it was a month ago. Demand in the market continues to be subdued, while supply remains high, putting pressure on prices and margins. However, in addition to the positive development represented by the easing of tensions in the Middle East, some producers are heard to have begun lowering production in response to market conditions, which should help improve the supply-and-demand balance over time.

Demand hit by low confidence, more Iranian and Russian billet could depress rebar prices

It seems that the concerns and lack of confidence shown by market players, in particular by buyers, constitute the main obstacles preventing demand from improving. The price of scrap shows how confident mills are for future planning. We may see more Iranian and Russian billets in the market, which would exert further pressure on reinforcing bar prices.

Producers face higher costs of power during the hot summer season

As far as costs are concerned, with energy demand increasing amid the seasonally high temperatures, the higher price of power will also work against producers’ interests.

EU struggles to improve its GDP, domestic prices soften due to weak demand

The overall geopolitical situation is not good for investments and Europe is still struggling to improve its GDP, while energy costs and inflation are rising. In the meantime, we have entered into a new phase regarding EU imports, which will only be observed during the initial days of the new quarterly period and will then be silent for the rest of the quarter. Despite the announcement of the quota reduction by almost 50 percent well in advance, EU mills had been able to raise their prices for a while, but now their prices are falling back to where they were before, as demand is weak all over the EU.

Chinese steel exports continue to increase despite gradual decline in output

There is nothing positive in the Far East except for the gradual decrease in production in China, which, however, will not change anything in the short run. Chinese steel exports continue to increase.

US market very reliant on data centers

Capacity utilization in the US is stalling at 81 percent and domestic mills are announcing increases of US$10/nt. The driver in the US market has been data centers, which are not all 100 percent-financed or are without building permits.

Most encouraging development was the easing of tensions in Middle East

Having said all above, the most encouraging development was the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Greater regional stability could have supported a gradual recovery in economic activity and steel demand, particularly in the Gulf markets. At the same time, despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, there are signs of improving demand for steel products. This suggests that reconstruction needs and investment could provide support for the market once geopolitical conditions normalize. These developments had given reason for cautious optimism about the medium-term outlook. But the tension seems to be there again.

Global competition still extremely intense, few genuinely free markets remain

Competition in the global steel market remains extremely intense. Trade flows continue to be shaped by tariffs, quotas and other trade measures, resulting in fragmented regional markets. Within Europe, competition is strong due to weak demand and significant production capacities. Competition in third-country export markets is even more challenging, as suppliers from around the world compete for a shrinking number of open destinations. Today, there are relatively few genuinely free markets remaining for global steel producers.

Current market status unstable, with a very unclear outlook

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable with a very unclear outlook.

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The DOC determined that Deacero S.A.P.I. de C.V. and Deacero Summit S.A.P.I. de C.V., treated as a single entity, made sales of subject merchandise at less than normal value during the period of review. The DOC has determined a weighted-average dumping margin of 14.67 percent for the entity.

According to the preliminary results, the weighted-average dumping margin was determined at 15.97 percent.

The DOC also rescinded the review with respect to seven companies, namely ArcelorMittal Mexico S.A. de C.V., Comercializadora Eloro, S.A., Grupo Villacero S.A. de C.V., Ingeteknos Fabricaciones S.A. de C.V., Ternium Mexico S.A. de C.V., Optimatiks Mexico S.A. de C.V., and TA 2000 S.A. de C.V., as there were no reviewable, suspended entries of subject merchandise from these companies during the period of review.

The all-others rate is 20.11 percent.

The regulation sets the total annual tariff-rate quota at 18,345,922 mt, while imports within the quota will remain duty-free, while volumes exceeding the quota will be subject to a 50 percent tariff, a sharp increase compared to the previous 25 percent safeguard duty.

This measure applies broadly to all third countries, including those with free trade agreements or preferential access, reinforcing the EU’s efforts to prevent trade diversion and protect domestic producers. However, imports originating from Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are excluded from the scope of the measure. The European Commission also retains the authority to expand the scope to include downstream steel products in future reviews.

The tariff-rate quotas will be administered on a quarterly basis, aiming to prevent import surges within short periods. During the first year of implementation, unused quotas will be carried over to subsequent quarters. However, the commission may later adjust this rule depending on market conditions, including import pressure and supply shortages.

The European Commission will:

• review the product scope regularly,
• assess the effectiveness of the measure every three years,
• potentially adjust quota volumes within a range of 14.4-22.2 million mt depending on market developments.

Annual volumes of tariff rate quotas for some steel products are listed below.

• Merchant Bars and Light Sections  :  881,735 mtons
• Rebars    : 844,526 mtons
• Wire Rods   : 1,569,532 mtons

In a joint statement, the European Parliament, the Council and the European Commission underlined that the EU has taken unprecedented steps since the start of the war to reduce its economic dependence on Russia and prevent its economic activity from supporting Russia’s war efforts.

However, the institutions acknowledged that some dependencies still remain, particularly for certain steel products that are not yet fully restricted. Limited volumes of Russian steel imports are therefore still permitted under transitional arrangements until September 30, 2028, with quotas that decrease annually. The EU confirmed that these measures are designed to ensure a complete phase-out of remaining Russian steel imports by the 2028 deadline.

There have been no signs of improvement in the global long steel products market. On the contrary, the current business environment has, unfortunately, deteriorated rather than improved in terms of the supply and demand balance. The wars, particularly in Iran and Ukraine, have significantly exacerbated existing disruptions across global supply chains. What we have seen looks more like a supply-side shock than a demand recovery: higher energy, electricity and freight costs have pushed prices upward, and these increases have so far been widely accepted by customers as inevitable.

Many economies would enter recessionary territory if ceasefire in Iran war fails to hold

So much will depend on whether the ceasefire just announced in the Iran war will hold. If it does not hold and should energy prices remain elevated, there would a substantial risk that many economies will enter recessionary territory, with wide-ranging and potentially severe consequences. Transportation costs have already risen considerably, while uncertainty surrounding future demand has increased across all major markets. At the same time, there is a noticeable shift toward greater protectionism, further complicating international trade dynamics.

US scrap export volumes decline, UK shifts to containerized scrap exports to Turkey

US ferrous scrap export volumes are in decline due to more domestic consumption and difficult prices in Asian markets, while the UK is shifting to containerized exports to Turkey.

On the bright side, increased pre-ordering and restocking activity observed

Despite the prevailing challenges, there are some positive aspects in the global market. Heightened uncertainty is prompting contractors involved in confirmed construction projects to secure supply in advance, leading to increased pre-ordering in order to mitigate the risk of further cost escalations. Additionally, in an inflationary environment, apparent demand often exceeds actual demand, as businesses tend to build up inventories as a precautionary measure. This dynamic is likely to result in a degree of restocking activity, providing short-term support to market demand.

Three distinct regional dynamics seen in competition in global market

Three distinct regional market dynamics can be identified in terms of the level of competition in the global market, which remains high, though it varies across regions. Broadly speaking, in the United States, competition is largely domestic, with local producers competing primarily within the internal market. In the European Union, the landscape is more mixed, characterized by intense domestic competition alongside a limited presence of imports from third countries. In contrast, in the rest of the world, competition is significantly more intense, with global players actively competing across multiple markets.

Rising costs of energy exerting pressure across the industry

At the same time, rising energy costs – particularly impacting steel producers – along with increasing scrap prices driven by higher oil and transportation costs, have exerted additional pressure across the industry. These factors are contributing to heightened competition globally, as producers strive to maintain margins and market share in an increasingly challenging cost environment. The market has accepted cost-driven price increases up to a certain degree. The uncertainty is in the second-order consequences. As with any supply-side shock, the market may have to rebuild around new supply routes, new energy costs and changing raw material availability, and it is still too early to judge how the wider economy will react. It will be necessary to wait and see what impact the ceasefire in the Iran war – provided it holds – will have on easing the surges in costs and if it will bring about a badly-needed return to something approaching normality for business and trade.

Current market environment very unstable, dependent on US war-related policy decisions

The current market environment can be best described as highly unstable and deeply influenced by geopolitical developments. In particular, the global economy has been increasingly dependent on policy decisions made by the United States administration in relation to the war against Iran, though some hope is now offered by the implementation of the ceasefire. Recent developments have intensified market volatility, with rising energy prices, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures creating a highly uncertain outlook.  In this context, market conditions remain fragile and unpredictable, with future stability largely contingent on geopolitical outcomes and policy direction in the coming months.

Outlook for next quarter remains uncertain

The outlook for the next quarter remains uncertain, primarily due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market direction will largely depend on how the situation evolves in the near term.

If the ceasefire holds…

Should the ceasefire hold, an improvement in demand can be expected, leading to a more positive outlook and gradual market stabilization. However, were the ceasefire to break down and war to be renewed, the risk of a significant economic slowdown will increase. In such a scenario, many economies could enter recessionary conditions, with potential project delays or cancellations and an overall challenging business environment. Other than the military-industrial complex, all other industrial sectors would be negatively affected.

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The weighted-average dumping margins stand at

• 74.35-94.73 percent for Brazil,
• 4.06 percent for Indonesia,
• 20.11 percent for Mexico,
• 369.10 percent for Moldova
• 11.40 percent for Trinidad and Tobago,

while Brazil is also subject to 2.76-6.74 percent countervailing duty.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings

• 7213.91.3000,
• 7213.91.3010,
• 7213.91.3011,
• 7213.91.3015,
• 7213.91.3020,
• 7213.91.3090,
• 7213.91.3091,
• 7213.91.3092,
• 7213.91.3093,
• 7213.91.4500,
• 7213.91.4510,
• 7213.91.4590,
• 7213.91.6000,
• 7213.91.6010,
• 7213.91.6090,
• 7213.99.0030,
• 7213.99.0031,
• 7213.99.0038,
• 7213.99.0090,
• 7227.20.0000,
• 7227.20.0010,
• 7227.20.0020,
• 7227.20.0030,
• 7227.20.0080,
• 7227.20.0090,
• 7227.20.0095,
• 7227.90.6010,
• 7227.90.6020,
• 7227.90.6050,
• 7227.90.6051,
• 7227.90.6053,
• 7227.90.6058,
• 7227.90.6059,
• 7227.90.6080,
• 7227.90.6085

of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS).

The DOC has preliminarily found that Deacero S.A.P.I. de C.V./Deacero Summit S.A.P.I. de C.V. made sales of the subject merchandise at prices below normal value during the period of review. The DOC has preliminarily determined an estimated weighted-average dumping margin of 15.97 percent for Deacero S.A.P.I. de C.V./Deacero Summit S.A.P.I. de C.V.

The DOC has also rescinded this review, in part, with respect to seven companies for which there were no reviewable entries of the subject merchandise during the period of review.

The DOC has decided to rescind the administrative review of the AD order because there were no reviewable entries of subject merchandise for which liquidation is suspended, or in other words, there were no entries of subject merchandise for the companies subject to this review during the period of review.

Due to a lapse in appropriations and federal government shutdown, on November 14, 2025, the DOC tolled all deadlines in administrative proceedings by 47 days and then due to heavy backlog tolled all deadlines by an additional 21 days. Therefore, the deadline for the preliminary results of this review is now February 9, 2026.

Demand remains weak in the global long steel products market, both structurally and seasonally. Buyers are cautious, operating on a hand-to-mouth basis and are still delaying medium- or long-term commitments. At the same time, supply pressure remains high. China has finally shown a significant production decline (with 2025 output down to 960 million mt, below one billion mt for the first time since 2019), but its exports surged to a record 119 million mt.

Geopolitics pull FX and commodity markets in different directions, causing uncertainty

Geopolitical tensions are clearly growing and are tearing the foreign exchange (FX) and commodity markets in different directions, increasing uncertainty for both mills and traders. This is feeding buyers’ wait-and-see stance on the demand side, while keeping input costs – especially scrap – more supported than finished steel products.

Demand still weak in EU, imports slowed down a lot by CBAM uncertainties

Demand in the EU market is still weak. Not only seasonal conditions but also uncertainties regarding political decisions are holding buyers back from making bigger commitments. Despite solid order books, construction companies are not flooding the market to avoid increases. The absolute uncertainty about quotas, CBAM, etc., has slowed down import volumes a lot. Only a few quotas were used up completely on January 1, which is proof of the fears of importers and traders.

US commercial construction expectations weaken for 2026

In the US, commercial construction expectations are down this year, with five of 17 market segments showing negative outlooks. Data centers (57 percent net positive) and power projects (34 percent net positive) remain strong. Although 63 percent of firms are planning new hires in 2026, over 80 percent are struggling to find qualified workers. Tariffs have affected 70 percent of contractors, and 63 percent report project delays or cancellations due to funding issues and rising costs. Top concerns for 2026 include the economic slowdown, workforce shortages, rising labor costs and material price volatility due to imports.

US residential construction segment also shows weakening, US mills in strong position

Residential construction in the US is not any better. Multi-family housing starts dropped 25.9 percent in October last year compared to September and were down 10.8 percent year on year, falling to their lowest level since 2020, according to the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Overall, housing starts in the US in October fell 4.6 percent from September and 7.8 percent from October 2024. Developers face challenges ranging from high inventory to high interest rates. Imports face tough competition with domestic products having a 50 percent duty advantage and with antidumping and countervailing duties on most commodities. Domestic mills are in the best position with high prices and practically no competition.

Seasonal supply tightness boosts scrap market, thereby providing support for longs market

The ferrous scrap market is strong mainly due to the seasonal supply tightness and provides some support for the long steel products market.

Competition at high levels but is not on a level playing field due to trade protectionism

There is high competition in the market. That said, with all the trade measures and tariffs, there is no fair competition anymore. It is just about searching for opportunities.

Market outlook slightly better but remains tough, some cautious optimism for 2026

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable. The outlook is slightly better due to seasonal reasons but remains tough. Despite all this and everchanging trade restrictions, we are still cautiously optimistic for 2026.

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The investigation, which covers the period from October 1, 2024, to September 30, 2025, was launched upon the request of domestic producer 7 Steel (UK) Limited. The TRA will review whether the termination of the antidumping duty would lead to a continuation of dumped imports and the resumption of damage to the economic sector. In order to assess the injury, the TRA will also examine the period between October 1, 2021, and September 30, 2025. The current antidumping duties are 7.9-24 percent.

The products subject to investigation currently fall under Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers

• 7213 10 00,
• 7213 20 00,
• 7213 91 10,
• 7213 91 20,
• 7213 91 41,
• 7213 91 49,
• 7213 91 70,
• 7213 91 90,
• 7213 99 10,
• 7213 99 90,
• 7227 10 00,
• 7227 20 00,
• 7227 90 10,
• 7227 90 50,
• 7227 90 95.