Overall, the situation in the global long steel products market has worsened slightly. There has been a so-called stability in the global long steel products market for the last couple months as far as demand is concerned, though demand remains weak. However, some volatility is seen in rebar prices due to changes in scrap prices. Higher scrap prices have been resulting in increased demand for steel billets from the Far East. Governments worldwide may push for increased investments in infrastructure amid AI data centre construction and resulting increases in electricity needs. In the US, of course, this is already happening, but it is also expected to be seen in other parts of the world soon.

Chinese give signals of wanting to keep supply in check, but doubts persist

Excess production capacity continues to be a major concern. In terms of supply, it seems the Chinese government wants to keep supply in check. Of course, it is not clear that this will actually happen. There is still no sign of any improvement in demand or of a slowing down of Chinese exports for the time being. Market players are crossing their fingers that next year the Chinese will take similar actions to what they did back in 2016.

Uncertainty is the main risk facing all parties

Uncertainty is the main risk facing all parties and appears likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. Increased interest rates in the West are another concern affecting future demand expectations.

European producers struggle amid skyrocketing energy prices, immediate action needed

In Europe, supply has been kept in balance due to extremely high energy prices (except in the Nordic countries), which make steel production very expensive. The price of gas in the European Union has increased by 150 percent over the past three months, and the Dutch TTF natural gas futures are now trading above 100 euros, versus less than 40 just three months ago! This also means electricity prices have increased by as much. Such a sharp increase in European electricity and natural gas prices since August has added over €110/mt to direct steelmaking and rolling costs. At current finished steel prices, the economics of European steel production are becoming increasingly difficult. European mills face a straightforward economic choice: either pass these additional costs on to buyers or reduce production. Where selling prices no longer cover variable production costs, maintaining output only increases operating losses. This, in combination with the new quotas and CBAM, means there is not much availability in the European Union. The present situation has become unsustainable. It demands immediate action.

Price increases in EU driven by costs rather than by safeguard quotas

Radically reduced safeguard quotas (with the exception of Turkey) have not supported price levels in the European Union as offers and demand in the market are still not in balance. Instead of import competition, it is now an intra-European competition, and it seems like each mill wants to benefit on volumes rather than on profit margins. The price increases seen lately are entirely cost-driven, i.e., by high energy and logistical costs. Even the all-time low water levels on all European rivers did not really affect the supply chain (with a few exceptions), but only increased costs.

German construction industry still awaits launch of state-funded projects, investors hold back

The construction industry in Germany is still awaiting a turn-around and the entry of state-funded projects. It all takes too much time, while private investors are holding back due to the uncertainties observed all over.

Some slight improvement in supply-demand balance in general

Mills in the rest of the world do not have the extremely high costs of European production, which are mainly the result of the EU’s CO2 policies, but it still seems oversupply is not a very big issue. So, the balance of supply and demand in general is probably a little better than before.

Demand in US relatively stable, but growth focused on select areas

In the US, demand is relatively stable, but high import tariffs and trade restrictions have significantly reduced opportunities for international suppliers, while domestic mills enjoy a more protected market. Margins for international traders in the US remain under significant pressure. AI data centre construction, energy, and selected infrastructure projects remain among the few major growth areas. Residential and commercial construction activity remains weak, partly due to high financing costs. Steel demand growth is uneven across different steel products and sectors. Overall, the global supply-demand imbalance continues to be a serious concern. It may soon be a US problem as well for certain products like rebar.

EAF-based producers see production costs rise continuously, integrated mills benefit

One interesting factor is that the production costs for EAF-based material are increasing continuously due to electricity shortages and the lack of adequate transmission lines. This is probably to the advantage of integrated producers who use coal.

India and parts of Southeast Asia remain relatively strong markets

Internationally, India and parts of Southeast Asia remain relatively strong markets. We also see some potential for improvement in Southeast Asia during 2027, although any recovery is likely to be gradual and uneven. Another positive factor is that there is no bombing in the Middle East.

Competition in global market remains very tough and very regional

Competition in the global market is, as always, very tough and very regional. Excess global capacity, particularly in Asia, combined with trade barriers and limited access to major importing markets, is forcing exporters to compete aggressively for fewer available opportunities. The first quarter of 2027 is expected to see further price increases in Europe. The North American market is still stable at 80 percent capacity utilization, but in the next two to three years domestic competition may
pick up due to oversupply and uncertain consumption forecasts.

Current status of the market stable in Europe for the moment, unstable in other areas

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market is stable in Europe at least for a few more weeks, but unstable in other areas.

Market outlook for next quarter very challenging, scrap to be scarcer as US and EU export less

The outlook of the market for the next quarter is very challenging and weak. It seems there will be higher prices due to higher energy costs and also scarcity of scrap, since the US, one of the two big scrap exporting regions, requires more and more scrap domestically. In addition, Europe, is increasing its consumption of scrap and less will be available for the export market, also leading to higher scrap prices. The outlook for demand is stable but unsatisfactory.
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Accordingly, the EC decided to launch the review after the EUROFER had submitted a request for a review on June 30, 2026, based on the fact that the expiry of the measures would be likely to result in continuation or recurrence of dumping and recurrence of injury to the EU industry. The review will cover the period between July 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, and will be completed within 12 months.

The antidumping duties on the given products are at the 7.9 percent for Valin Group and 24.0 percent for all other Chinese companies.

The products subject to the review currently fall under Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers

• 7213 10 00,
• 7213 20 00,
• 7213 91 10,
• 7213 91 20,
• 7213 91 41,
• 7213 91 49,
• 7213 91 70,
• 7213 91 90,
• 7213 99 10,
• 7213 99 90,
• 7227 10 00,
• 7227 20 00,
• 7227 90 10,
• 7227 90 50,
• 7227 90 95.

According to the government notice, the antidumping measure will remain in place until January 28, 2031. The TRA recommended maintaining the existing duty rates, as it did not consider it appropriate to recalculate the antidumping amounts during the expiry review.

Under the extended measure, Chinese producer Valin Group will remain subject to an antidumping duty of 7.9 percent, while all other Chinese exporters will continue to face antidumping duty of 24 percent.

The TRA launched the expiry review on January 28, 2026, which covered the period between October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025. According to the TRA, the review indicates that dumping and injury to the UK industry would likely continue or recur if the existing measures were allowed to expire.

The subject products currently fall under the codes

• 7213 10 00,
• 7213 20 00,
• 7213 91 10,
• 7213 91 20,
• 7213 91 41,
• 7213 91 49,
• 7213 91 70,
• 7213 91 90,
• 7213 99 10,
• 7213 99 90,
• 7227 10 00,
• 7227 20 00,
• 7227 90 10,
• 7227 90 50
• 7227 90 95

Day 1: Sunday, September 27, 2026

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at the Metropol Palace, Belgrade

Day 2: Monday, September 28, 2026

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

IREPAS Chairman: Ioannis Manessis, Principal, Hellenic Halyvourgia S.A

09:30 – 11:10                  SESSION ONE – Critical Changes Shaping the Global Long Steel Markets

- Long products market outlook

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group

- Regional Markets of the Balkans and Southeast Europe in the Global Storm

- Branko Zecevic, President, Metalfer Group

 - HBI in the Raw Materials Landscape

Vincent F. Chevrier, General Manager / Technical Sales and Marketing , Midrex Technologies, Inc.

- CBAM: A Verifier’s Perspective on Compliance and Implementation

Jerónimo Casas, Global Product Manager for Climate Change and Sustainability Solutions, SGS

11:10 – 11:40 Networking break

11:40 – 12:45 SESSION TWO – Steel Markets in a Changing Global Landscape

- Navigating the New Global Order: Strategic Foresight for Steel Markets

Keynote Speaker: Velina Tchakarova, Geopolitical Strategist and Founder, FACE For A Conscious Experience

- Dry Freight and Steel Trade Flows Amid Geopolitical Risks

Maria Bertzeletou, Senior Market Analyst, The Signal Group

12:45 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, September 29, 2026

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

The DOC preliminarily determined that POSCO and POSCO International Corporation (PIC), treated as a single entity, did not sell subject merchandise in the United States at prices below normal value during the period of review. The DOC has preliminarily determined a weighted-average dumping margin of 0.00 percent for the collapsed entity.

The all-others rate is 41.10 percent.

The overall business environment in the global long steel products market has deteriorated again. Everything is even more difficult and complexities are increasing further. Nevertheless, the apparent de-escalation of the conflict involving Iran could mark an important turning point. If geopolitical risks continue to ease, we may be approaching the bottom of the current market cycle.

International rebar market now weaker compared to one month ago

The international reinforcing bars market is now weaker than it was a month ago. Demand in the market continues to be subdued, while supply remains high, putting pressure on prices and margins. However, in addition to the positive development represented by the easing of tensions in the Middle East, some producers are heard to have begun lowering production in response to market conditions, which should help improve the supply-and-demand balance over time.

Demand hit by low confidence, more Iranian and Russian billet could depress rebar prices

It seems that the concerns and lack of confidence shown by market players, in particular by buyers, constitute the main obstacles preventing demand from improving. The price of scrap shows how confident mills are for future planning. We may see more Iranian and Russian billets in the market, which would exert further pressure on reinforcing bar prices.

Producers face higher costs of power during the hot summer season

As far as costs are concerned, with energy demand increasing amid the seasonally high temperatures, the higher price of power will also work against producers’ interests.

EU struggles to improve its GDP, domestic prices soften due to weak demand

The overall geopolitical situation is not good for investments and Europe is still struggling to improve its GDP, while energy costs and inflation are rising. In the meantime, we have entered into a new phase regarding EU imports, which will only be observed during the initial days of the new quarterly period and will then be silent for the rest of the quarter. Despite the announcement of the quota reduction by almost 50 percent well in advance, EU mills had been able to raise their prices for a while, but now their prices are falling back to where they were before, as demand is weak all over the EU.

Chinese steel exports continue to increase despite gradual decline in output

There is nothing positive in the Far East except for the gradual decrease in production in China, which, however, will not change anything in the short run. Chinese steel exports continue to increase.

US market very reliant on data centers

Capacity utilization in the US is stalling at 81 percent and domestic mills are announcing increases of US$10/nt. The driver in the US market has been data centers, which are not all 100 percent-financed or are without building permits.

Most encouraging development was the easing of tensions in Middle East

Having said all above, the most encouraging development was the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Greater regional stability could have supported a gradual recovery in economic activity and steel demand, particularly in the Gulf markets. At the same time, despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, there are signs of improving demand for steel products. This suggests that reconstruction needs and investment could provide support for the market once geopolitical conditions normalize. These developments had given reason for cautious optimism about the medium-term outlook. But the tension seems to be there again.

Global competition still extremely intense, few genuinely free markets remain

Competition in the global steel market remains extremely intense. Trade flows continue to be shaped by tariffs, quotas and other trade measures, resulting in fragmented regional markets. Within Europe, competition is strong due to weak demand and significant production capacities. Competition in third-country export markets is even more challenging, as suppliers from around the world compete for a shrinking number of open destinations. Today, there are relatively few genuinely free markets remaining for global steel producers.

Current market status unstable, with a very unclear outlook

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable with a very unclear outlook.

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The DOC determined that Deacero S.A.P.I. de C.V. and Deacero Summit S.A.P.I. de C.V., treated as a single entity, made sales of subject merchandise at less than normal value during the period of review. The DOC has determined a weighted-average dumping margin of 14.67 percent for the entity.

According to the preliminary results, the weighted-average dumping margin was determined at 15.97 percent.

The DOC also rescinded the review with respect to seven companies, namely ArcelorMittal Mexico S.A. de C.V., Comercializadora Eloro, S.A., Grupo Villacero S.A. de C.V., Ingeteknos Fabricaciones S.A. de C.V., Ternium Mexico S.A. de C.V., Optimatiks Mexico S.A. de C.V., and TA 2000 S.A. de C.V., as there were no reviewable, suspended entries of subject merchandise from these companies during the period of review.

The all-others rate is 20.11 percent.

The regulation sets the total annual tariff-rate quota at 18,345,922 mt, while imports within the quota will remain duty-free, while volumes exceeding the quota will be subject to a 50 percent tariff, a sharp increase compared to the previous 25 percent safeguard duty.

This measure applies broadly to all third countries, including those with free trade agreements or preferential access, reinforcing the EU’s efforts to prevent trade diversion and protect domestic producers. However, imports originating from Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are excluded from the scope of the measure. The European Commission also retains the authority to expand the scope to include downstream steel products in future reviews.

The tariff-rate quotas will be administered on a quarterly basis, aiming to prevent import surges within short periods. During the first year of implementation, unused quotas will be carried over to subsequent quarters. However, the commission may later adjust this rule depending on market conditions, including import pressure and supply shortages.

The European Commission will:

• review the product scope regularly,
• assess the effectiveness of the measure every three years,
• potentially adjust quota volumes within a range of 14.4-22.2 million mt depending on market developments.

Annual volumes of tariff rate quotas for some steel products are listed below.

• Merchant Bars and Light Sections  :  881,735 mtons
• Rebars    : 844,526 mtons
• Wire Rods   : 1,569,532 mtons

In a joint statement, the European Parliament, the Council and the European Commission underlined that the EU has taken unprecedented steps since the start of the war to reduce its economic dependence on Russia and prevent its economic activity from supporting Russia’s war efforts.

However, the institutions acknowledged that some dependencies still remain, particularly for certain steel products that are not yet fully restricted. Limited volumes of Russian steel imports are therefore still permitted under transitional arrangements until September 30, 2028, with quotas that decrease annually. The EU confirmed that these measures are designed to ensure a complete phase-out of remaining Russian steel imports by the 2028 deadline.

There have been no signs of improvement in the global long steel products market. On the contrary, the current business environment has, unfortunately, deteriorated rather than improved in terms of the supply and demand balance. The wars, particularly in Iran and Ukraine, have significantly exacerbated existing disruptions across global supply chains. What we have seen looks more like a supply-side shock than a demand recovery: higher energy, electricity and freight costs have pushed prices upward, and these increases have so far been widely accepted by customers as inevitable.

Many economies would enter recessionary territory if ceasefire in Iran war fails to hold

So much will depend on whether the ceasefire just announced in the Iran war will hold. If it does not hold and should energy prices remain elevated, there would a substantial risk that many economies will enter recessionary territory, with wide-ranging and potentially severe consequences. Transportation costs have already risen considerably, while uncertainty surrounding future demand has increased across all major markets. At the same time, there is a noticeable shift toward greater protectionism, further complicating international trade dynamics.

US scrap export volumes decline, UK shifts to containerized scrap exports to Turkey

US ferrous scrap export volumes are in decline due to more domestic consumption and difficult prices in Asian markets, while the UK is shifting to containerized exports to Turkey.

On the bright side, increased pre-ordering and restocking activity observed

Despite the prevailing challenges, there are some positive aspects in the global market. Heightened uncertainty is prompting contractors involved in confirmed construction projects to secure supply in advance, leading to increased pre-ordering in order to mitigate the risk of further cost escalations. Additionally, in an inflationary environment, apparent demand often exceeds actual demand, as businesses tend to build up inventories as a precautionary measure. This dynamic is likely to result in a degree of restocking activity, providing short-term support to market demand.

Three distinct regional dynamics seen in competition in global market

Three distinct regional market dynamics can be identified in terms of the level of competition in the global market, which remains high, though it varies across regions. Broadly speaking, in the United States, competition is largely domestic, with local producers competing primarily within the internal market. In the European Union, the landscape is more mixed, characterized by intense domestic competition alongside a limited presence of imports from third countries. In contrast, in the rest of the world, competition is significantly more intense, with global players actively competing across multiple markets.

Rising costs of energy exerting pressure across the industry

At the same time, rising energy costs – particularly impacting steel producers – along with increasing scrap prices driven by higher oil and transportation costs, have exerted additional pressure across the industry. These factors are contributing to heightened competition globally, as producers strive to maintain margins and market share in an increasingly challenging cost environment. The market has accepted cost-driven price increases up to a certain degree. The uncertainty is in the second-order consequences. As with any supply-side shock, the market may have to rebuild around new supply routes, new energy costs and changing raw material availability, and it is still too early to judge how the wider economy will react. It will be necessary to wait and see what impact the ceasefire in the Iran war – provided it holds – will have on easing the surges in costs and if it will bring about a badly-needed return to something approaching normality for business and trade.

Current market environment very unstable, dependent on US war-related policy decisions

The current market environment can be best described as highly unstable and deeply influenced by geopolitical developments. In particular, the global economy has been increasingly dependent on policy decisions made by the United States administration in relation to the war against Iran, though some hope is now offered by the implementation of the ceasefire. Recent developments have intensified market volatility, with rising energy prices, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures creating a highly uncertain outlook.  In this context, market conditions remain fragile and unpredictable, with future stability largely contingent on geopolitical outcomes and policy direction in the coming months.

Outlook for next quarter remains uncertain

The outlook for the next quarter remains uncertain, primarily due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market direction will largely depend on how the situation evolves in the near term.

If the ceasefire holds…

Should the ceasefire hold, an improvement in demand can be expected, leading to a more positive outlook and gradual market stabilization. However, were the ceasefire to break down and war to be renewed, the risk of a significant economic slowdown will increase. In such a scenario, many economies could enter recessionary conditions, with potential project delays or cancellations and an overall challenging business environment. Other than the military-industrial complex, all other industrial sectors would be negatively affected.

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The weighted-average dumping margins stand at

• 74.35-94.73 percent for Brazil,
• 4.06 percent for Indonesia,
• 20.11 percent for Mexico,
• 369.10 percent for Moldova
• 11.40 percent for Trinidad and Tobago,

while Brazil is also subject to 2.76-6.74 percent countervailing duty.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings

• 7213.91.3000,
• 7213.91.3010,
• 7213.91.3011,
• 7213.91.3015,
• 7213.91.3020,
• 7213.91.3090,
• 7213.91.3091,
• 7213.91.3092,
• 7213.91.3093,
• 7213.91.4500,
• 7213.91.4510,
• 7213.91.4590,
• 7213.91.6000,
• 7213.91.6010,
• 7213.91.6090,
• 7213.99.0030,
• 7213.99.0031,
• 7213.99.0038,
• 7213.99.0090,
• 7227.20.0000,
• 7227.20.0010,
• 7227.20.0020,
• 7227.20.0030,
• 7227.20.0080,
• 7227.20.0090,
• 7227.20.0095,
• 7227.90.6010,
• 7227.90.6020,
• 7227.90.6050,
• 7227.90.6051,
• 7227.90.6053,
• 7227.90.6058,
• 7227.90.6059,
• 7227.90.6080,
• 7227.90.6085

of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS).