There have been no signs of improvement in the global long steel products market. On the contrary, the current business environment has, unfortunately, deteriorated rather than improved in terms of the supply and demand balance. The wars, particularly in Iran and Ukraine, have significantly exacerbated existing disruptions across global supply chains. What we have seen looks more like a supply-side shock than a demand recovery: higher energy, electricity and freight costs have pushed prices upward, and these increases have so far been widely accepted by customers as inevitable.

Many economies would enter recessionary territory if ceasefire in Iran war fails to hold

So much will depend on whether the ceasefire just announced in the Iran war will hold. If it does not hold and should energy prices remain elevated, there would a substantial risk that many economies will enter recessionary territory, with wide-ranging and potentially severe consequences. Transportation costs have already risen considerably, while uncertainty surrounding future demand has increased across all major markets. At the same time, there is a noticeable shift toward greater protectionism, further complicating international trade dynamics.

US scrap export volumes decline, UK shifts to containerized scrap exports to Turkey

US ferrous scrap export volumes are in decline due to more domestic consumption and difficult prices in Asian markets, while the UK is shifting to containerized exports to Turkey.

On the bright side, increased pre-ordering and restocking activity observed

Despite the prevailing challenges, there are some positive aspects in the global market. Heightened uncertainty is prompting contractors involved in confirmed construction projects to secure supply in advance, leading to increased pre-ordering in order to mitigate the risk of further cost escalations. Additionally, in an inflationary environment, apparent demand often exceeds actual demand, as businesses tend to build up inventories as a precautionary measure. This dynamic is likely to result in a degree of restocking activity, providing short-term support to market demand.

Three distinct regional dynamics seen in competition in global market

Three distinct regional market dynamics can be identified in terms of the level of competition in the global market, which remains high, though it varies across regions. Broadly speaking, in the United States, competition is largely domestic, with local producers competing primarily within the internal market. In the European Union, the landscape is more mixed, characterized by intense domestic competition alongside a limited presence of imports from third countries. In contrast, in the rest of the world, competition is significantly more intense, with global players actively competing across multiple markets.

Rising costs of energy exerting pressure across the industry

At the same time, rising energy costs – particularly impacting steel producers – along with increasing scrap prices driven by higher oil and transportation costs, have exerted additional pressure across the industry. These factors are contributing to heightened competition globally, as producers strive to maintain margins and market share in an increasingly challenging cost environment. The market has accepted cost-driven price increases up to a certain degree. The uncertainty is in the second-order consequences. As with any supply-side shock, the market may have to rebuild around new supply routes, new energy costs and changing raw material availability, and it is still too early to judge how the wider economy will react. It will be necessary to wait and see what impact the ceasefire in the Iran war – provided it holds – will have on easing the surges in costs and if it will bring about a badly-needed return to something approaching normality for business and trade.

Current market environment very unstable, dependent on US war-related policy decisions

The current market environment can be best described as highly unstable and deeply influenced by geopolitical developments. In particular, the global economy has been increasingly dependent on policy decisions made by the United States administration in relation to the war against Iran, though some hope is now offered by the implementation of the ceasefire. Recent developments have intensified market volatility, with rising energy prices, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures creating a highly uncertain outlook.  In this context, market conditions remain fragile and unpredictable, with future stability largely contingent on geopolitical outcomes and policy direction in the coming months.

Outlook for next quarter remains uncertain

The outlook for the next quarter remains uncertain, primarily due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market direction will largely depend on how the situation evolves in the near term.

If the ceasefire holds…

Should the ceasefire hold, an improvement in demand can be expected, leading to a more positive outlook and gradual market stabilization. However, were the ceasefire to break down and war to be renewed, the risk of a significant economic slowdown will increase. In such a scenario, many economies could enter recessionary conditions, with potential project delays or cancellations and an overall challenging business environment. Other than the military-industrial complex, all other industrial sectors would be negatively affected.

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The investigation covers the period from 2021 through the first half of 2025, and over the next 30 days the Ministry of Economy will be registering the opinions of the interested parties; over 60 days from the start of the investigation on March 10 the ministry will be looking into the comments and information regarding the case.

The antidumping case covers the imports of the steel bars under the following codes:

• 7213 10 00 00,
• 7213 91 10 00,
• 7213 91 41 00,
• 7213 91 49 00,
• 7213 91 70 00,
• 7213 91 90 00,
• 7213 99 10 00,
• 7213 99 90 00,
• 7214 20 00 00,
• 7214 91 10 00,
• 7214 91 90 00,
• 7214 99 10 00,
• 7214 99 50 00,
• 7214 99 95 00,
• 7227 20 00 00,
• 7227 90 10 00,
• 7228 20 91 00.

L-shaped angles according to codes 7216 21 00 00 and 7216 50 10 00 are also under investigation.

The DOC has decided to rescind the administrative review of the AD order because there were no reviewable entries of subject merchandise for which liquidation is suspended, or in other words, there were no entries of subject merchandise for the companies subject to this review during the period of review.

Due to a lapse in appropriations and federal government shutdown, on November 14, 2025, the DOC tolled all deadlines in administrative proceedings by 47 days and then due to heavy backlog tolled all deadlines by an additional 21 days. Therefore, the deadline for the preliminary results of this review is now February 9, 2026.

Ms. Svyrydenko emphasized that scrap is a critical input for Ukraine’s metallurgical and foundry industries. Despite the export duty currently applied, scrap exports have continued to increase, often being shipped onward to third countries without generating added value for the Ukrainian economy. In contrast, domestic processing supports employment, generates tax revenues, and supplies materials essential for defense needs and post-war reconstruction. The use of scrap in steelmaking also helps reduce carbon emissions, a growing priority given the European Union’s climate-related requirements. According to the prime minister, maintaining restrictions on raw material exports strengthens domestic manufacturing, reduces environmental pressure, and enhances the energy security of local communities.

The DOC found that revocation of the antidumping duty orders on the given product from the given seven countries would likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of dumping.

The weighted-average dumping margins are at

• 114.53 percent for Belarus,
• 133.0 percent for China,
• 60.46 percent and 71.01 percent for Indonesia,
• 17.21 percent for Latvia,
• 232.86 percent for Moldova,
• 47.13 percent and 52.07 percent for Poland
• 41.69 percent for Ukraine

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings

• 7214.20.00,
• 7228.30.8050,
• 7222.11.0050,
• 7222.30.0000,
• 7228.60.6000,
• 7228.20.1000

of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS).

The review, which was initiated on May 8, 2024, originally covered the following six companies:

1. ArcelorMittal Steel Kryvyi Rih;
2. Public Joint Stock Company Yenakiieve Iron and Steel Works;
3. PrJSC Electrometallurgical Works Dneprospetsstal;
4. PJSC Dneprovsky Iron & Steel Integrated Works;
5. Metinvest Holding LLC;
6. Variant Agro Build Ltd.

The DOC noted that it is rescinding the review because there were no reviewable, suspended entries of subject merchandise by any of the companies.

The weighted-average dumping margins stand at

• 114.53 percent for Belarus,
• 133.00 percent for China,
• 60.46 percent and 71.01 percent for Indonesia,
• 16.99 percent for Latvia,
• 232.86 percent for Moldova,
• 47.13 percent and52.07 percent for Poland,
• 41.69 percent for Ukraine.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings 7214.20.00, 7228.20.8050, 7222.11.0050, 7222.30.0000, 7228.60.6000, and 7228.20.1000 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS).

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at InterContinental Berlin

Day 2: Monday, April 29, 2024

09:00 – 09:15                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:15 – 09:45                   SESSION ONE – Critical changes in the global long steel markets

- Long products market outlook

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group

09:45 – 10:40                  SESSION TWO – Macroeconomic overview

Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX Research, Commerzbank AG

10:40 – 11:10                     Networking break

11:10 – 12:30                    SESSION THREE – Critical changes in the global long steel markets

- Chinese steel market outlook

Yuan Wenjiong, Chairman, Dao Fortune

- Indian steel market outlook

Somanath Tripathy, Executive Director(Materials Management), Rourkela Steel Plant, Steel Authority of India Limited

- Ukrainian economy and steel industry: current situation and outlook

• Current situation in Ukraine steel industry: production, capacities, shifts in trade
• Logistics and ports
• Redirection of trade flows
• Metinvest’s strategy under current conditions
• Prospects for Ukraine’s exports and imports

Roman Perepelytsia, Head of Strategy & Business Development, Metinvest Holding

12:30 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, April 30, 2024

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

The DOC found that revocation of the antidumping duty orders on the given product from the given seven countries would be likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of dumping. The DOC has determined weighted-average dumping margin of up to

• 114.53 percent for Belarus,
• 133.00 percent for China,
• 71.01 percent for Indonesia,
• 16.99 percent for Latvia,
• 232.86 percent for Moldova,
• 52.07 percent for Poland,
• 41.69 percent for Ukraine.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings 7214.20.00, 7228.20.8050, 7222.11.0050, 7222.30.0000, 7228.60.6000, and 7228.20.1000 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS).

The global long steel products market is slowing down in general, which is putting pressure on producers. Demand for reinforcing bars and wire rods remains very weak and there is strong pressure on prices from the new exporters – Algeria, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia – who are in the market with very aggressive offers.

Business still stagnant in US, high interest rates a major factor 

Business in the US is still stagnant. Demand has slowed down and supply is the same, putting pressure on prices. High interest rates constitute the biggest factor in the slowdown of both commercial and residential construction. The US Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep inflation under control are working, while slowing down the economy. Flat steel prices are still under pressure, with flats mainly supplied from domestic sources.

Non-traditional sources active in exports, Turkey struggles due to trade measures 

Exports are only active from non-traditional sources like Algeria and Egypt, which are subject to no antidumping or countervailing duty measures so far. Turkey has been unfairly hit with high antidumping duty, when one mill honored a contract made before the Ukrainian war and delivered as pledged, even after the surge in prices. All Turkish mills (except one) were conveniently painted with the same brush.

New US and EU measures target Russian exports of semis and raw materials 

It seems that the situation in Ukraine will be a never-ending story. However, the new restrictions to be introduced by the US and the EU will create more complications for producers who import Russian semis and raw materials and export their goods to the US and the EU, namely, Turkey and Egypt. The EU is already demanding a declaration from producers confirming no Russian input for goods that are shipped into the EU. US officials are paying visits to individual companies explaining the risks of not cutting ties with Russia. We will witness more circumvention cases in the coming period. The halting of Russian steel imports in six weeks’ time into the EU should have a significant impact. It is difficult to prevail in defensive cases, which may cause Turkey to strongly reduce imports from Russia.

US and EU to produce less steel in 2023 than in 2022 

Both the US and the EU will produce less steel in 2023 than in 2022.  In the US, flat product output is down five percent year to date, while domestic long product output is down even more.

Europe very quiet due to holidays, private sector investors lack confidence 

Europe has been very quiet over the last few weeks due to the holidays. Prices are very flat and there are no signs of improvement in sight. The main reason is low activity and low ordering from the market. Mills are fighting for every ton which is available. Overcapacities in the EU are preventing mills from raising prices. Imports are practically non-existent right now as one can see from the safeguard import statistics. All EU countries are trying to avoid a recession by injecting money into the economy, but the private sector is afraid due to all the uncertainties surrounding energy prices, interest rates and additional burdens which may come from Brussels in relation to CO2 emissions. All these uncertainties are holding the private sector back from investing.

Strong domestic construction in Russia restrains its exports 

Russia is experiencing strong growth in its domestic construction sector and so it is not so hungry for exports.

Stimulus packages in China have no impact on its exports 

So far, all stimulus packages introduced in China have had no impact on exports that affects global steel prices. China’s BOFs are working at over 90 percent capacity utilization and EAFs at under 50 percent.

Scrap demand falls amid reduced steel outputs, scrap prices hold firm 

Slowing production has also led to lower ferrous scrap demand. European demand is expected to contract in the coming quarter. Although demand is slowing down for scrap also, inflows are dropping for scrap traders. Availability is low and this is exerting pressure on recyclers to get material to their yards and shredders. Scrap prices are still holding firm, mainly because suppliers are much more organized. They may stay around the mid-$300s/mt unless demand for reinforcing bar falls further. India seems to have a weak domestic market, but, on the other hand, it is paying top bucks for scrap, which supports scrap at the mid-$300s/mt.

Some new projects in Europe, Turkey and S. Arabia to provide support 

There are a number of projects coming on stream in Europe and Turkey. There is also the NEOM city project in Saudi Arabia, with demand for a huge quantity of reinforcing bars which is supposed to come on stream shortly.

Freight costs lower but still higher than before pandemic, clean energy an issue for steel sector 

Raw material prices are softening a little and shipping prices are coming down but are still higher than pre-pandemic prices. New policies on carbon emission limitations and clean energy will be a problem for the steel industry in the future. Ironically, a lot of Chinese “clean” energy technology is made in factories using coal-powered electricity. Clean energy technology should come from clean supply chains, though cheap Chinese inputs such as polysilicon for solar panels and critical minerals for batteries are often made or extracted by cheap labor in other parts of the world.

US still a locomotive of the global economy 

The US economy and US industrial orders are still the locomotive of the global economy. Electricity prices have also lessened since last year’s fluctuations. Inflation no longer seems a threat and in general autumn is expected to be better than the first seven months of 2023.

International competition weak amid low prices and high logistics costs 

International competition in the market is weak because prices are so low that logistics are killing trade. There is almost no international competition. Otherwise, the competition is for volumes, not to increase them or simply to keep them stable, but rather to limit the slide in volumes as much as possible. Imports are dropping in North America and the EU, which of course affects the MENA region and Latin America.

Current market status unstable, outlook unsatisfactory except for scrap suppliers 

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable and unpredictable. The outlook for the next quarter is mostly unstable and unsatisfactory, except for ferrous scrap suppliers.

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