According to the government notice, the antidumping measure will remain in place until January 28, 2031. The TRA recommended maintaining the existing duty rates, as it did not consider it appropriate to recalculate the antidumping amounts during the expiry review.

Under the extended measure, Chinese producer Valin Group will remain subject to an antidumping duty of 7.9 percent, while all other Chinese exporters will continue to face antidumping duty of 24 percent.

The TRA launched the expiry review on January 28, 2026, which covered the period between October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025. According to the TRA, the review indicates that dumping and injury to the UK industry would likely continue or recur if the existing measures were allowed to expire.

The subject products currently fall under the codes

• 7213 10 00,
• 7213 20 00,
• 7213 91 10,
• 7213 91 20,
• 7213 91 41,
• 7213 91 49,
• 7213 91 70,
• 7213 91 90,
• 7213 99 10,
• 7213 99 90,
• 7227 10 00,
• 7227 20 00,
• 7227 90 10,
• 7227 90 50
• 7227 90 95

The supply and demand balance in the global long steel products market has become marginally worse for international business since June, although supply has started to react. Global crude steel production moved from an increase of 1.7 percent year on year in June to a decrease of 0.3 percent in July, with China’s crude steel output moving from an increase of 0.4 percent to a decrease of 3.6 percent in these respective months. However, global production in the January-July period was down only 0.6 percent year on year, which does not yet signal a meaningful rebalancing. The market situation in the coming period is extremely difficult to predict, particularly given the geopolitical developments affecting the Black Sea region and the Strait of Hormuz. International trade has become increasingly challenging. Demand remains generally subdued, while disruptions to supply and logistics are creating upward pressure on prices.

Energy costs rise significantly, overall environment increasingly inflationary

At the same time, energy costs have risen significantly. Natural gas prices in Europe and elsewhere remain at very high levels, with electricity prices following the same trend, while coal prices have also moved higher. Consequently, the overall environment has become increasingly inflationary. We, therefore, have an unusual combination of relatively weak demand and rising costs and supply-side pressures, which are creating considerable uncertainty and volatility in the international steel market.

China’s steel bar exports rise further, its real estate investments deteriorate

In the meantime, China’s real estate investments deteriorated from a decrease of 18.0 percent in the first half to a drop of 19.2 percent in the January-July period, with fixed-asset investments and infrastructure investments decreasing by bigger margins of 6.7 percent and 3.6 percent respectively in the January-July period, compared to respective declines of 5.7 percent and 2.4 percent in the first half. Steel exports from China in July remained above 10 million metric tons, with steel bar exports rising by 20.9 percent in July and by 12.3 percent in the January-July period. Together with the tighter EU and UK import quotas from July 1, this means a better balance inside protected markets but more displacement into the remaining open markets. The imbalance is being redistributed rather than resolved.

Higher costs begin to push EU prices upwards

Demand in the EU market remains weak, partly due to the summer season and the continued lack of activity in construction. A sudden increase in consumption is not currently foreseen, particularly as we move into the fourth quarter, which is traditionally a period of slowing activity. Nevertheless, sharply higher energy costs are now pushing mills’ prices upwards. Exceptionally low water levels on Europe’s major rivers have also increased transport costs for both mills and importers. Even in a weak demand environment, producers cannot continue absorbing these additional costs indefinitely. The current upward price movement is therefore mainly cost-driven rather than the result of any significant improvement in consumption.

US remains one of the clearer growth markets, but high interest rates still a major issue

The US is one of the clearer growth markets: domestic steel shipments increased by 5.3 percent in the first half of 2026, while steel demand is forecast to grow by 1.7 percent in the calendar year 2026, supported by infrastructure and technology-related investment. There is a gradual demand recovery in the US as well as strong infrastructure investment and continued AI investments. Meanwhile, imports are down 22 percent year-to-date. Supply in the US long steel market is moderately tight but has been moving toward a balance as of August. High interest rates are still a major issue for residential and commercial construction. However, rising domestic capacity and slowly recovering imports should gradually ease the supply pressure. Overall, the situation is better for US mills, but tougher for international suppliers. The US is going on its own path, at least until the results of the mid-term elections are announced. In the meantime, there are about 20 steel producers in the US announcing outages for September, October and November.

Global prices to remain driven by supply-side factors rather than by demand

From a pricing perspective, the main supportive factors are the prospect of reduced supply pressure from China, disruptions affecting trade in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, higher energy and production costs, and the increasingly restrictive trade measures being implemented in the US, the EU and the UK. Global production finally saw a slightly negative correction in July, indicating that mills are beginning to respond. In the EU, steel producers are announcing profits. Our expectation is that prices will remain under upward pressure during the next quarter driven primarily by the abovementioned factors rather than by a strong recovery in underlying demand.

Global steel demand foreseen to improve in 2027, but no broad recovery yet

On the demand side, the picture is less encouraging. Nevertheless, there is still meaningful demand in the Americas, while demand in most other regions appears broadly stable rather than deteriorating significantly. Looking at the global situation, India, Southeast Asia, Africa and select US construction segments offer the best opportunities for long steel products. According to market analysts, global steel demand is expected to improve further in 2027, supporting trade volumes and market confidence. These are positives for select markets and margins, but not yet evidence of a broad global demand recovery.

Ferrous scrap market still characterized by weakness

The ferrous scrap market is weak without much movement towards the upside as steel mills seek to avoid price hikes that would further constrict their margins.

Competition at reduced levels amid limited number of viable supply alternatives

Competition in the global long steel market is currently somewhat reduced, mainly because the number of competitive supply sources has become more limited. Trade restrictions, geopolitical disruptions, higher freight and energy costs, and difficulties in accessing certain markets have all reduced the number of viable supply alternatives.

Current market status very unstable, market highly sensitive to geopolitical developments

Under such circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as very unstable. The market will remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly in the Black Sea and the Middle East.

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Half of the import quotas have been allocated exclusively to free trade agreement (FTA) partners, while the remaining half will be available to all exporting countries, including FTA partners.

The regulation establishes three different quota access mechanisms depending on the exporting country’s status.

Countries receiving a country-specific quota (CSQ) may use their allocated quota immediately. Once exhausted, eligible FTA partners may continue exporting under an additional FTA Quota – CSQ, which is administered on a first-come, first-served basis.

Countries without country-specific quotas may instead access:
- “Other countries” quota: accessible for the exporting countries which are not FTA partners.
- FTA Quota – Other countries quota: accessible for the exporting countries which are FTA partners.

The countries that are able to access these three type of quotas may vary depending on the products.

The CSQ allocations for reinforcing bars are as follows:

• Türkiye : 239,66.09 mtons (59,919.02 mtons per quarter)
• Egypt : 144,367.80 mtons (36,091.95 mtons per quarter)
• Algeria : 63,761.42 mtons (15,940.36 mtons per quarter)
• Moldova : 39,719.11 mtons (9,929.78 mtons per quarter)
• China : 20,216.13 mtons (5,054.03 mtons per quarter)
• Ukraine : 67,710.16 mtons (16,927.54 mtons per quarter)
• FTA Quota – CSQ : 158,803.37 mtons (39,700.84 mtons per quarter)
• Other Countries : 63,322.34 mtons (15,830.59 mtons per quarter)
• FTA Quota – Other Countries : 38,299.23 mtons (9,574.81 mtons per quarter)
• UK (to Northern Ireland from other parts of the UK) : 8,649.90 mtons (2,162.48 mtons per quarter)

The CSQ allocations for wire rods are as follows:

• Türkiye : 244,589.00 mtons (61,147.25 mtons per quarter)
• Malaysia : 86,683.40 mtons (21,670.85 mtons per quarter)
• UK : 175,399.53 mtons (43,849.88 mtons per quarter)
• Ukraine : 189,145.02 mtons (47,286.26 mtons per quarter)
• Switzerland : 162,195.34 mtons (40,548.83 mtons per quarter)
• Viet Nam : 97,086.65 mtons (24,271.66 mtons per quarter)
• Moldova : 95,839.25 mtons (23,959.81 mtons per quarter)
• Egypt : 86,714.89 mtons (21,678.72 mtons per quarter)
• FTA Quota – CSQ : 122,881.38 mtons (30,720.34 mtons per quarter)
• Other Countries : 153,927.34 mtons (38,481.84 mtons per quarter)
• FTA Quota – Other Countries : 138,440.96 mtons (34,610.24 mtons per quarter)
• Korea : 11,334.76 mtons (2,833.69 mtons per quarter)
• Japan : 5,293.99 mtons (1,323.50 mtons per quarter)

There have been no signs of improvement in the global long steel products market. On the contrary, the current business environment has, unfortunately, deteriorated rather than improved in terms of the supply and demand balance. The wars, particularly in Iran and Ukraine, have significantly exacerbated existing disruptions across global supply chains. What we have seen looks more like a supply-side shock than a demand recovery: higher energy, electricity and freight costs have pushed prices upward, and these increases have so far been widely accepted by customers as inevitable.

Many economies would enter recessionary territory if ceasefire in Iran war fails to hold

So much will depend on whether the ceasefire just announced in the Iran war will hold. If it does not hold and should energy prices remain elevated, there would a substantial risk that many economies will enter recessionary territory, with wide-ranging and potentially severe consequences. Transportation costs have already risen considerably, while uncertainty surrounding future demand has increased across all major markets. At the same time, there is a noticeable shift toward greater protectionism, further complicating international trade dynamics.

US scrap export volumes decline, UK shifts to containerized scrap exports to Turkey

US ferrous scrap export volumes are in decline due to more domestic consumption and difficult prices in Asian markets, while the UK is shifting to containerized exports to Turkey.

On the bright side, increased pre-ordering and restocking activity observed

Despite the prevailing challenges, there are some positive aspects in the global market. Heightened uncertainty is prompting contractors involved in confirmed construction projects to secure supply in advance, leading to increased pre-ordering in order to mitigate the risk of further cost escalations. Additionally, in an inflationary environment, apparent demand often exceeds actual demand, as businesses tend to build up inventories as a precautionary measure. This dynamic is likely to result in a degree of restocking activity, providing short-term support to market demand.

Three distinct regional dynamics seen in competition in global market

Three distinct regional market dynamics can be identified in terms of the level of competition in the global market, which remains high, though it varies across regions. Broadly speaking, in the United States, competition is largely domestic, with local producers competing primarily within the internal market. In the European Union, the landscape is more mixed, characterized by intense domestic competition alongside a limited presence of imports from third countries. In contrast, in the rest of the world, competition is significantly more intense, with global players actively competing across multiple markets.

Rising costs of energy exerting pressure across the industry

At the same time, rising energy costs – particularly impacting steel producers – along with increasing scrap prices driven by higher oil and transportation costs, have exerted additional pressure across the industry. These factors are contributing to heightened competition globally, as producers strive to maintain margins and market share in an increasingly challenging cost environment. The market has accepted cost-driven price increases up to a certain degree. The uncertainty is in the second-order consequences. As with any supply-side shock, the market may have to rebuild around new supply routes, new energy costs and changing raw material availability, and it is still too early to judge how the wider economy will react. It will be necessary to wait and see what impact the ceasefire in the Iran war – provided it holds – will have on easing the surges in costs and if it will bring about a badly-needed return to something approaching normality for business and trade.

Current market environment very unstable, dependent on US war-related policy decisions

The current market environment can be best described as highly unstable and deeply influenced by geopolitical developments. In particular, the global economy has been increasingly dependent on policy decisions made by the United States administration in relation to the war against Iran, though some hope is now offered by the implementation of the ceasefire. Recent developments have intensified market volatility, with rising energy prices, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures creating a highly uncertain outlook.  In this context, market conditions remain fragile and unpredictable, with future stability largely contingent on geopolitical outcomes and policy direction in the coming months.

Outlook for next quarter remains uncertain

The outlook for the next quarter remains uncertain, primarily due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market direction will largely depend on how the situation evolves in the near term.

If the ceasefire holds…

Should the ceasefire hold, an improvement in demand can be expected, leading to a more positive outlook and gradual market stabilization. However, were the ceasefire to break down and war to be renewed, the risk of a significant economic slowdown will increase. In such a scenario, many economies could enter recessionary conditions, with potential project delays or cancellations and an overall challenging business environment. Other than the military-industrial complex, all other industrial sectors would be negatively affected.

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The investigation, which covers the period from October 1, 2024, to September 30, 2025, was launched upon the request of domestic producer 7 Steel (UK) Limited. The TRA will review whether the termination of the antidumping duty would lead to a continuation of dumped imports and the resumption of damage to the economic sector. In order to assess the injury, the TRA will also examine the period between October 1, 2021, and September 30, 2025. The current antidumping duties are 7.9-24 percent.

The products subject to investigation currently fall under Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers

• 7213 10 00,
• 7213 20 00,
• 7213 91 10,
• 7213 91 20,
• 7213 91 41,
• 7213 91 49,
• 7213 91 70,
• 7213 91 90,
• 7213 99 10,
• 7213 99 90,
• 7227 10 00,
• 7227 20 00,
• 7227 90 10,
• 7227 90 50,
• 7227 90 95.

The higher tariff will be effective as of June 4, 2025. Trump stated that the measures are intended to secure the future of the US steel industry, ending unfair trade practices and the global dumping of steel and aluminum.

In addition, tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from the UK will remain at 25 percent, with possible changes or quotas starting from July 9, 2025, depending on the status of the US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal signed on May 8.

Trump stated that the tariffs, which will apply to the products from trading partners with duty-free exemptions or tariff-rate quota deals, including Canada, Mexico, Australia, Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, the EU, Japan and the UK, will be effective as of March 12, 2025. However, a White House official subsequently stated that the tariffs will be effective as of March 4, 2025.

The products include HRC, CRC, metallic coated sheet, organic coated sheet, tin mill products, quarto plates, merchant bars and light sections, reinforcing bar, wire rod, angles, sections, railway material, gas pipes, hollow sections and large welded tubes.

The period of investigation of this review is April 1, 2018, to March 31, 2023, and the TRA will investigate whether the measure currently in place has removed or reduced serious injury to the UK steel industry and whether it is likely that serious injury will recur if the measure is not extended. The review will recommend to the Secretary of State for Business and Trade if the safeguard measure should be extended by up to two further years to 2026.

As a result of the ITC’s affirmative determinations, the existing orders on imports of this product from Belarus, Italy, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom will remain in place.

The supply and demand balance in the global long steel products market is not getting any better and the main export destinations are requiring lower offers almost every week. The overriding issue for the market is volume and the lack of volume which is in effect coming from the lack of consumption. Consumption has unfortunately not recovered yet from the pandemic. Generally, negative factors prevail in the different regions worldwide, though with China and Asia faring somewhat better.

Turkish longs sector still in dire straits 

Turkish reinforcing bar exports are down 60 percent compared to last year when they were already down 30 percent compared to the previous year. Local demand is set to increase due to reconstruction of the region hit by the recent earthquakes and the renewal of old buildings in Istanbul. However, this will be insufficient to support the Turkish reinforcing bar industry. The wire rod situation is even worse. Despite the new capacities, export figures are down by almost 80 percent. Turkish mills are also facing further difficulties due to the recent rise in scrap prices. On a positive note, there is a possibility that Turkey may return to orthodox fundamentals as far as economic policies are concerned, which would bring some stability and visibility.

Protectionism to continue to prevail globally 

On the other hand, the EU has extended its safeguard measures for another year, which is a clear proof that world trade is no longer as it was defined by the Uruguay Round and will continue with its current protectionist structure which will exert pressure on developing countries. Furthermore, the CBAM in the EU will replace the current safeguard measures in the region within 12 months. Direct and indirect subsidies and state aid will allow the US and European steel industries to remain profitable, while other countries will be suffering due to the unfair competition from certain Asian exports.  The competition in open markets is very tough as Asian prices are very competitive. China is dominating the world market, with some Middle Eastern countries competing closely. Meanwhile, there is still lots of focus on reducing CO2 emissions worldwide.

EU market hit by many negative factors all at once 

The situation as regards the EU mills has not improved on the sales side, though it has become more complicated on the raw material side with the scrap market holding firm. Demand in all EU countries has declined. Apart from private housing and industrial building construction, infrastructure projects are also now rare, which is the delayed impact of the slowdown in public projects two years ago when prices had reached up to €1,500 and higher for cut and bend and governments were asked to let steam out of the situation to avoid even further price jumps. Now everything has hit home at the same moment. Inflation, high interest rates and less public spending due to other important issues. What is going on politically in the world does not help the economy to recover in the short term. Market prices are now depending on variable costs for many EAFs. The market is entering the traditionally very quiet months of July and August when construction activity slows down. There are a lot of export offers at prices that suggest sales for US dollars under the usual costings. There are many newcomers in the export markets.

Slower demand in US for time of year, funding of new projects now more expensive 

Demand in the US market is slower than usual for the start of summer. In spite of almost everything returning to normal in the US, the PMI for manufacturing has been contracting for seven straight months. Steel prices did soften a little due to the lack of high demand and the easing off of scrap prices. The banking crisis and high interest rates do not support new private construction activity. Funding new projects has become more expensive and difficult to finance. Infrastructure projects continue their slow pace but are fully supplied by domestic mills working with healthy margins. With very small margins, imports are not as competitive except from neighboring countries which are not subject to Section 232 duties.

Chinese producers doing better than most, new stimulus also awaited in China 

Chinese integrated mills have good positive margins, which have led them to purchase iron ore at higher prices, although coking coal prices have gone down. As a result, some Chinese producers should be happy. But not everyone else is so content. Margins are shrinking in the EU, UK and in North America as spot prices are being adjusted lower to attract volumes. Supply is being partly restricted, also in the hope of creating demand. China may try to reduce capacities to bring balance to the market, but it is not very likely that the government will be able achieve this. If they succeed in slowing down Chinese steel production, it may bring some relief within a month or so. However, profit margins are set to remain low. There have also been some recent good perspectives regarding an anticipated new governmental stimulus in China.

Overall gloomy outlook predominates in global market 

Given all the above circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable.  The outlook of the market for the next quarter is not very promising, to say the least. There are political expectations (elections) in almost every region in the world and the summer holidays are approaching in Europe, and these factors may bring a stagnant and anxious period as regards both prices and demand in the international market. The continued rebalancing on the side of raw material supply and finished steel products, as well as a lack of consumption in the short, medium and long terms, can be expected. The downward movement of ferrous scrap in the US looks set to continue into July. Steel producers will probably give up the margins resulting from these decreases in their search for volumes.

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