There have been no signs of improvement in the global long steel products market. On the contrary, the current business environment has, unfortunately, deteriorated rather than improved in terms of the supply and demand balance. The wars, particularly in Iran and Ukraine, have significantly exacerbated existing disruptions across global supply chains. What we have seen looks more like a supply-side shock than a demand recovery: higher energy, electricity and freight costs have pushed prices upward, and these increases have so far been widely accepted by customers as inevitable.

Many economies would enter recessionary territory if ceasefire in Iran war fails to hold

So much will depend on whether the ceasefire just announced in the Iran war will hold. If it does not hold and should energy prices remain elevated, there would a substantial risk that many economies will enter recessionary territory, with wide-ranging and potentially severe consequences. Transportation costs have already risen considerably, while uncertainty surrounding future demand has increased across all major markets. At the same time, there is a noticeable shift toward greater protectionism, further complicating international trade dynamics.

US scrap export volumes decline, UK shifts to containerized scrap exports to Turkey

US ferrous scrap export volumes are in decline due to more domestic consumption and difficult prices in Asian markets, while the UK is shifting to containerized exports to Turkey.

On the bright side, increased pre-ordering and restocking activity observed

Despite the prevailing challenges, there are some positive aspects in the global market. Heightened uncertainty is prompting contractors involved in confirmed construction projects to secure supply in advance, leading to increased pre-ordering in order to mitigate the risk of further cost escalations. Additionally, in an inflationary environment, apparent demand often exceeds actual demand, as businesses tend to build up inventories as a precautionary measure. This dynamic is likely to result in a degree of restocking activity, providing short-term support to market demand.

Three distinct regional dynamics seen in competition in global market

Three distinct regional market dynamics can be identified in terms of the level of competition in the global market, which remains high, though it varies across regions. Broadly speaking, in the United States, competition is largely domestic, with local producers competing primarily within the internal market. In the European Union, the landscape is more mixed, characterized by intense domestic competition alongside a limited presence of imports from third countries. In contrast, in the rest of the world, competition is significantly more intense, with global players actively competing across multiple markets.

Rising costs of energy exerting pressure across the industry

At the same time, rising energy costs – particularly impacting steel producers – along with increasing scrap prices driven by higher oil and transportation costs, have exerted additional pressure across the industry. These factors are contributing to heightened competition globally, as producers strive to maintain margins and market share in an increasingly challenging cost environment. The market has accepted cost-driven price increases up to a certain degree. The uncertainty is in the second-order consequences. As with any supply-side shock, the market may have to rebuild around new supply routes, new energy costs and changing raw material availability, and it is still too early to judge how the wider economy will react. It will be necessary to wait and see what impact the ceasefire in the Iran war – provided it holds – will have on easing the surges in costs and if it will bring about a badly-needed return to something approaching normality for business and trade.

Current market environment very unstable, dependent on US war-related policy decisions

The current market environment can be best described as highly unstable and deeply influenced by geopolitical developments. In particular, the global economy has been increasingly dependent on policy decisions made by the United States administration in relation to the war against Iran, though some hope is now offered by the implementation of the ceasefire. Recent developments have intensified market volatility, with rising energy prices, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures creating a highly uncertain outlook.  In this context, market conditions remain fragile and unpredictable, with future stability largely contingent on geopolitical outcomes and policy direction in the coming months.

Outlook for next quarter remains uncertain

The outlook for the next quarter remains uncertain, primarily due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market direction will largely depend on how the situation evolves in the near term.

If the ceasefire holds…

Should the ceasefire hold, an improvement in demand can be expected, leading to a more positive outlook and gradual market stabilization. However, were the ceasefire to break down and war to be renewed, the risk of a significant economic slowdown will increase. In such a scenario, many economies could enter recessionary conditions, with potential project delays or cancellations and an overall challenging business environment. Other than the military-industrial complex, all other industrial sectors would be negatively affected.

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The investigation, which covers the period from October 1, 2024, to September 30, 2025, was launched upon the request of domestic producer 7 Steel (UK) Limited. The TRA will review whether the termination of the antidumping duty would lead to a continuation of dumped imports and the resumption of damage to the economic sector. In order to assess the injury, the TRA will also examine the period between October 1, 2021, and September 30, 2025. The current antidumping duties are 7.9-24 percent.

The products subject to investigation currently fall under Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers

• 7213 10 00,
• 7213 20 00,
• 7213 91 10,
• 7213 91 20,
• 7213 91 41,
• 7213 91 49,
• 7213 91 70,
• 7213 91 90,
• 7213 99 10,
• 7213 99 90,
• 7227 10 00,
• 7227 20 00,
• 7227 90 10,
• 7227 90 50,
• 7227 90 95.

The higher tariff will be effective as of June 4, 2025. Trump stated that the measures are intended to secure the future of the US steel industry, ending unfair trade practices and the global dumping of steel and aluminum.

In addition, tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from the UK will remain at 25 percent, with possible changes or quotas starting from July 9, 2025, depending on the status of the US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal signed on May 8.

Trump stated that the tariffs, which will apply to the products from trading partners with duty-free exemptions or tariff-rate quota deals, including Canada, Mexico, Australia, Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, the EU, Japan and the UK, will be effective as of March 12, 2025. However, a White House official subsequently stated that the tariffs will be effective as of March 4, 2025.

The products include HRC, CRC, metallic coated sheet, organic coated sheet, tin mill products, quarto plates, merchant bars and light sections, reinforcing bar, wire rod, angles, sections, railway material, gas pipes, hollow sections and large welded tubes.

The period of investigation of this review is April 1, 2018, to March 31, 2023, and the TRA will investigate whether the measure currently in place has removed or reduced serious injury to the UK steel industry and whether it is likely that serious injury will recur if the measure is not extended. The review will recommend to the Secretary of State for Business and Trade if the safeguard measure should be extended by up to two further years to 2026.

As a result of the ITC’s affirmative determinations, the existing orders on imports of this product from Belarus, Italy, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom will remain in place.

The supply and demand balance in the global long steel products market is not getting any better and the main export destinations are requiring lower offers almost every week. The overriding issue for the market is volume and the lack of volume which is in effect coming from the lack of consumption. Consumption has unfortunately not recovered yet from the pandemic. Generally, negative factors prevail in the different regions worldwide, though with China and Asia faring somewhat better.

Turkish longs sector still in dire straits 

Turkish reinforcing bar exports are down 60 percent compared to last year when they were already down 30 percent compared to the previous year. Local demand is set to increase due to reconstruction of the region hit by the recent earthquakes and the renewal of old buildings in Istanbul. However, this will be insufficient to support the Turkish reinforcing bar industry. The wire rod situation is even worse. Despite the new capacities, export figures are down by almost 80 percent. Turkish mills are also facing further difficulties due to the recent rise in scrap prices. On a positive note, there is a possibility that Turkey may return to orthodox fundamentals as far as economic policies are concerned, which would bring some stability and visibility.

Protectionism to continue to prevail globally 

On the other hand, the EU has extended its safeguard measures for another year, which is a clear proof that world trade is no longer as it was defined by the Uruguay Round and will continue with its current protectionist structure which will exert pressure on developing countries. Furthermore, the CBAM in the EU will replace the current safeguard measures in the region within 12 months. Direct and indirect subsidies and state aid will allow the US and European steel industries to remain profitable, while other countries will be suffering due to the unfair competition from certain Asian exports.  The competition in open markets is very tough as Asian prices are very competitive. China is dominating the world market, with some Middle Eastern countries competing closely. Meanwhile, there is still lots of focus on reducing CO2 emissions worldwide.

EU market hit by many negative factors all at once 

The situation as regards the EU mills has not improved on the sales side, though it has become more complicated on the raw material side with the scrap market holding firm. Demand in all EU countries has declined. Apart from private housing and industrial building construction, infrastructure projects are also now rare, which is the delayed impact of the slowdown in public projects two years ago when prices had reached up to €1,500 and higher for cut and bend and governments were asked to let steam out of the situation to avoid even further price jumps. Now everything has hit home at the same moment. Inflation, high interest rates and less public spending due to other important issues. What is going on politically in the world does not help the economy to recover in the short term. Market prices are now depending on variable costs for many EAFs. The market is entering the traditionally very quiet months of July and August when construction activity slows down. There are a lot of export offers at prices that suggest sales for US dollars under the usual costings. There are many newcomers in the export markets.

Slower demand in US for time of year, funding of new projects now more expensive 

Demand in the US market is slower than usual for the start of summer. In spite of almost everything returning to normal in the US, the PMI for manufacturing has been contracting for seven straight months. Steel prices did soften a little due to the lack of high demand and the easing off of scrap prices. The banking crisis and high interest rates do not support new private construction activity. Funding new projects has become more expensive and difficult to finance. Infrastructure projects continue their slow pace but are fully supplied by domestic mills working with healthy margins. With very small margins, imports are not as competitive except from neighboring countries which are not subject to Section 232 duties.

Chinese producers doing better than most, new stimulus also awaited in China 

Chinese integrated mills have good positive margins, which have led them to purchase iron ore at higher prices, although coking coal prices have gone down. As a result, some Chinese producers should be happy. But not everyone else is so content. Margins are shrinking in the EU, UK and in North America as spot prices are being adjusted lower to attract volumes. Supply is being partly restricted, also in the hope of creating demand. China may try to reduce capacities to bring balance to the market, but it is not very likely that the government will be able achieve this. If they succeed in slowing down Chinese steel production, it may bring some relief within a month or so. However, profit margins are set to remain low. There have also been some recent good perspectives regarding an anticipated new governmental stimulus in China.

Overall gloomy outlook predominates in global market 

Given all the above circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable.  The outlook of the market for the next quarter is not very promising, to say the least. There are political expectations (elections) in almost every region in the world and the summer holidays are approaching in Europe, and these factors may bring a stagnant and anxious period as regards both prices and demand in the international market. The continued rebalancing on the side of raw material supply and finished steel products, as well as a lack of consumption in the short, medium and long terms, can be expected. The downward movement of ferrous scrap in the US looks set to continue into July. Steel producers will probably give up the margins resulting from these decreases in their search for volumes.

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The DOC found that revocation of the antidumping duty orders on the given product from the given countries would be likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of dumping.

The DOC has determined weighted-average dumping margins of up to 280.02 percent for Belarus, 18.89 percent for Italy, 41.10 percent for South Korea, 756.93 percent for Russia, 142.26 percent for South Africa, 32.64 percent for Spain, 4.44 percent for Turkey, 44.03 percent for Ukraine, 84.10 percent for the UAE, and 147.63 percent for the UK.

The products in question are currently classifiable in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) under subheading 7213.91.3011, 7213.91.3015, 7213.91.3020, 7213.91.3093; 7213.91.4500, 7213.91.6000, 7213.99.0030, 7227.20.0030, 7227.20.0080, 7227.90.6010, 7227.90.6020, 7227.90.6030, and 7227.90.6035.

The products in question currently fall under Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers 72 14 20 00 10, 72 28 30 20 10, 72 28 30 41 10, 72 28 30 49 10, 72 28 30 61 10, 72 28 30 69 10, 72 28 30 70 10, and 72 28 30 89 10.

The products in question currently fall under Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers 7213 10 00, 7213 20 00, 7213 91 10, 7213 91 20, 7213 91 41, 7213 91 49, 7213 91 70, 7213 91 90, 7213 99 10, 7213 99 90, 7227 10 00, 7227 20 00, 7227 90 10, 7227 90 50, and 7227 90 95.