The determined dumping margins are as afollows:

• Promet Steel JSC – Bulgaria : 15.9 percent
• Tata Steel Manufacturing (Thailand) Public Company Limited – Thailand : 6.2 percent
• Conares Metal Supply Limited – UAE : 4.2 percent

The agency has terminated the investigation on rebar from Thailand-based Thai Steel Profile Public Company Limited, as the goods were not dumped.

The preliminary dumping margins were at 18.1 percent for Bulgaria, two percent and 6.9 percent for Thailand and 0.4 percent for the UAE.

The Canadian International Trade Tribunal is continuing its inquiry into the question of injury to the domestic industry and will issue its decision by January 13, 2025.

The products subject to duty currently fall under the following Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers

• 7213.10.00.11,
• 7213.10.00.12,
• 7213.10.00.13,
• 7213.10.00.90,
• 7214.20.00.11,
• 7214.20.00.12,
• 7214.20.00.13,
• 7214.20.00.14,
• 7214.20.00.21,
• 7214.20.00.22,
• 7214.20.00.23,
• 7214.20.00.24,
• 7214.20.00.31,
• 7214.20.00.32,
• 7214.20.00.33,
• 7214.20.00.34,
• 7214.20.00.90,
• 7215.90.00.20,
• 7215.90.00.30,
• 7227.90.00.50,
• 7228.30.00.51,
• 7228.30.00.52,
• 7228.30.00.53

The CBSA will investigate whether the imports are being dumped and will make a preliminary decision within 90 days, at which time provisional duties may apply.

The products subject to antidumping duty investigation currently fall under the following Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers

• 7213.10.00.11,
• 7213.10.00.12,
• 7213.10.00.13,
• 7213.10.00.90,
• 7214.20.00.11,
• 7214.20.00.12,
• 7214.20.00.13,
• 7214.20.00.14,
• 7214.20.00.21,
• 7214.20.00.22,
• 7214.20.00.23,
• 7214.20.00.24,
• 7214.20.00.31,
• 7214.20.00.32,
• 7214.20.00.33,
• 7214.20.00.34,
• 7214.20.00.90,
• 7215.90.00.20,
• 7215.90.00.30,
• 7227.90.00.50,
• 7228.30.00.51,
• 7228.30.00.52,
• 7228.30.00.53.

The supply and demand balance in the global long steel products market has not improved compared to previous months. Unfortunately, the positive expectations after the Chinese New Year holidays have not materialized. It seems Chinese exporters will continue to be aggressive, which of course will also drive other Asian exporters (Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and South Korea) to adopt a similar stance. If we look at the EU import statistics, we see a massive shift towards Asian suppliers. On the other hand, demand is not picking up as the market had anticipated or hoped, which puts pressure on both prices and production. However, the markets still hold positive hopes for the second half of the year.

Chinese real estate sector in deep trouble, Chinese exports may surge again

Two major Chinese developers, namely, Evergrande and Country Garden, are in deep financial trouble. There are some worrying rumours of infrastructure projects being cancelled due to the lack of funding. Iron ore with 62 percent Fe content is trading at around €116/mt and coke prices have dropped as well. This weakening of raw material costs brings many mills in China into positive territory. The pressure on Chinese long product mills is mounting and, if the rumours of the cancellation of infrastructure projects materialize, this could cause a surge in Chinese exports, supported by reduced raw material costs.

EU market very quiet amid reduced residential construction in northern Europe

The EU market is very quiet as residential construction has declined substantially in northern Europe. There is very little activity and prices from domestic mills are as stable as a rock. There is some increase in imports including unusual origins such as China, Oman and the UAE. Other sources are not able to compete with domestic offers.

Situation unchanged in US but higher interest rates a problem

As for the US, the situation is unchanged. However, the earlier optimism that the interest rates would come down sooner has vanished. Commercial and residential construction has not picked up and any improvement will have to wait until the summer. Government-funded projects were also affected by the lockdown of finances by the House of Representatives, which have just been released. There are discussions about converting empty office spaces to homes to cover the home deficit, which will not help the steel industry. Auto sales are also affected by the interest rates and are flat. In short, we are on hold for the next two moves of the US Federal Reserve. Rebar prices are steady but face downward pressure with lower raw material costs. Due to higher shipping costs, imports are not as competitive. HRC prices are still on a downward trend, which is affecting all steel futures. Slow economic activity in China after the Lunar New Year holiday and the lack of prospects for a quick easing of interest rates in the US have put pressure on commodities worldwide.

Turkey struggles in markets where it was formerly dominant

Turkey is competing on many fronts. Asian, GCC and North African exporters are now exporting heavily to markets where Turkey used to be dominant.

Lower raw material prices the only good news for steel mills

Iron ore prices have hit a six-month low, while ferrous scrap is being generated in decent volumes in the US, which has meant more tonnages destined for export. In Europe, the slow economy has reduced ferrous scrap flow and also demand from the steel industry which is struggling with poor order books. The only good news for steel mills nowadays could be that the raw material prices, both for iron ore and scrap, are going down. Also, lower activity means lower volumes, reducing supply pressure on the markets.

State subsidies for climate action to be a major issue for years to come

One of the main topics for market players to discuss for years to come will be the definition of state subsidies related to climate change, because it looks like this issue will definitely be used for the next level of protection measures. 

Competition remains local or regional

Competition is still mostly local or regional rather than global due to existing protectionist measures and it is strong where such measures do not exist.

Status of markets generally unstable, outlook slow and unsatisfactory

Under such circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable in many markets or stable at a low level at best. The outlook, unfortunately, is slow and unsatisfactory.

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The global long steel products market is slowing down in general, which is putting pressure on producers. Demand for reinforcing bars and wire rods remains very weak and there is strong pressure on prices from the new exporters – Algeria, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia – who are in the market with very aggressive offers.

Business still stagnant in US, high interest rates a major factor 

Business in the US is still stagnant. Demand has slowed down and supply is the same, putting pressure on prices. High interest rates constitute the biggest factor in the slowdown of both commercial and residential construction. The US Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep inflation under control are working, while slowing down the economy. Flat steel prices are still under pressure, with flats mainly supplied from domestic sources.

Non-traditional sources active in exports, Turkey struggles due to trade measures 

Exports are only active from non-traditional sources like Algeria and Egypt, which are subject to no antidumping or countervailing duty measures so far. Turkey has been unfairly hit with high antidumping duty, when one mill honored a contract made before the Ukrainian war and delivered as pledged, even after the surge in prices. All Turkish mills (except one) were conveniently painted with the same brush.

New US and EU measures target Russian exports of semis and raw materials 

It seems that the situation in Ukraine will be a never-ending story. However, the new restrictions to be introduced by the US and the EU will create more complications for producers who import Russian semis and raw materials and export their goods to the US and the EU, namely, Turkey and Egypt. The EU is already demanding a declaration from producers confirming no Russian input for goods that are shipped into the EU. US officials are paying visits to individual companies explaining the risks of not cutting ties with Russia. We will witness more circumvention cases in the coming period. The halting of Russian steel imports in six weeks’ time into the EU should have a significant impact. It is difficult to prevail in defensive cases, which may cause Turkey to strongly reduce imports from Russia.

US and EU to produce less steel in 2023 than in 2022 

Both the US and the EU will produce less steel in 2023 than in 2022.  In the US, flat product output is down five percent year to date, while domestic long product output is down even more.

Europe very quiet due to holidays, private sector investors lack confidence 

Europe has been very quiet over the last few weeks due to the holidays. Prices are very flat and there are no signs of improvement in sight. The main reason is low activity and low ordering from the market. Mills are fighting for every ton which is available. Overcapacities in the EU are preventing mills from raising prices. Imports are practically non-existent right now as one can see from the safeguard import statistics. All EU countries are trying to avoid a recession by injecting money into the economy, but the private sector is afraid due to all the uncertainties surrounding energy prices, interest rates and additional burdens which may come from Brussels in relation to CO2 emissions. All these uncertainties are holding the private sector back from investing.

Strong domestic construction in Russia restrains its exports 

Russia is experiencing strong growth in its domestic construction sector and so it is not so hungry for exports.

Stimulus packages in China have no impact on its exports 

So far, all stimulus packages introduced in China have had no impact on exports that affects global steel prices. China’s BOFs are working at over 90 percent capacity utilization and EAFs at under 50 percent.

Scrap demand falls amid reduced steel outputs, scrap prices hold firm 

Slowing production has also led to lower ferrous scrap demand. European demand is expected to contract in the coming quarter. Although demand is slowing down for scrap also, inflows are dropping for scrap traders. Availability is low and this is exerting pressure on recyclers to get material to their yards and shredders. Scrap prices are still holding firm, mainly because suppliers are much more organized. They may stay around the mid-$300s/mt unless demand for reinforcing bar falls further. India seems to have a weak domestic market, but, on the other hand, it is paying top bucks for scrap, which supports scrap at the mid-$300s/mt.

Some new projects in Europe, Turkey and S. Arabia to provide support 

There are a number of projects coming on stream in Europe and Turkey. There is also the NEOM city project in Saudi Arabia, with demand for a huge quantity of reinforcing bars which is supposed to come on stream shortly.

Freight costs lower but still higher than before pandemic, clean energy an issue for steel sector 

Raw material prices are softening a little and shipping prices are coming down but are still higher than pre-pandemic prices. New policies on carbon emission limitations and clean energy will be a problem for the steel industry in the future. Ironically, a lot of Chinese “clean” energy technology is made in factories using coal-powered electricity. Clean energy technology should come from clean supply chains, though cheap Chinese inputs such as polysilicon for solar panels and critical minerals for batteries are often made or extracted by cheap labor in other parts of the world.

US still a locomotive of the global economy 

The US economy and US industrial orders are still the locomotive of the global economy. Electricity prices have also lessened since last year’s fluctuations. Inflation no longer seems a threat and in general autumn is expected to be better than the first seven months of 2023.

International competition weak amid low prices and high logistics costs 

International competition in the market is weak because prices are so low that logistics are killing trade. There is almost no international competition. Otherwise, the competition is for volumes, not to increase them or simply to keep them stable, but rather to limit the slide in volumes as much as possible. Imports are dropping in North America and the EU, which of course affects the MENA region and Latin America.

Current market status unstable, outlook unsatisfactory except for scrap suppliers 

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable and unpredictable. The outlook for the next quarter is mostly unstable and unsatisfactory, except for ferrous scrap suppliers.

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As a result of the ITC’s affirmative determinations, the existing orders on imports of this product from Belarus, Italy, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom will remain in place.

The DOC found that revocation of the antidumping duty orders on the given product from the given countries would be likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of dumping.

The DOC has determined weighted-average dumping margins of up to 280.02 percent for Belarus, 18.89 percent for Italy, 41.10 percent for South Korea, 756.93 percent for Russia, 142.26 percent for South Africa, 32.64 percent for Spain, 4.44 percent for Turkey, 44.03 percent for Ukraine, 84.10 percent for the UAE, and 147.63 percent for the UK.

The products in question are currently classifiable in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) under subheading 7213.91.3011, 7213.91.3015, 7213.91.3020, 7213.91.3093; 7213.91.4500, 7213.91.6000, 7213.99.0030, 7227.20.0030, 7227.20.0080, 7227.90.6010, 7227.90.6020, 7227.90.6030, and 7227.90.6035.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the situation in the global long steel products market is deteriorating as we have entered a rising-cost business cycle, adding that the situation is dramatic and huge uncertainty lies ahead.

The IREPAS chairman said the current crisis is a once-in-a-generation event with mills and consumers facing an unprecedented increase in energy prices, particularly in the EU, but also almost everywhere else. In addition to the energy crisis, there is also a logistics crisis, he said, adding that production cuts are expected soon, which will balance the drop in demand caused by higher interest rates and costs, as well as by shortages of many items.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Lower scrap demand prevails in market, except in South Asia

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the committee meeting findings stating that energy prices, especially in the EU, were the main topic of the conference. He added that during summer and autumn all-time record high levels were recorded for natural gas and electricity prices. The committee chairman indicated that interest rates have been hiked to tame inflation, pushing the US dollar to an all-time high against other currencies.

Commenting on scrap demand, Mr. Björkman said that US scrap demand had slowed down and that mills there are running at slightly lower capacities, pressuring scrap and iron ore prices, adding that supply of new production scrap which was previously in good shape has been slower. Also, for China, he noted that, despite a significant stimulus, demand for steel and raw materials has been weakening, with the outlook remaining negative. Scrap demand is significantly lower in some parts of the EU, and this has been offset by Southeast Asian demand where energy problems are not so severe. Also, logistics are another issue for the EU market given the all-time low water levels on the Rhine River, as Europe’s river system is an important part of the EU’s scrap exports.

According to the chairman of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee, the demand situation in Turkey, which has also been struggling with high energy prices, is under pressure from alternatives to scrap such as semi-finished products, which it has been possible to get at lower price levels. Mr. Björkman explained that Turkey is not only buying Russian billet, but also ex-Asia billet, and that the pressure coming from cheaper billet is affecting Turkish mills’ ability to buy scrap. He added that, thanks to the alternative destinations for scrap such as some Asian countries, the pressure on prices in the market which Turkey was able to exert has been mitigated, though these alternative destinations are not likely to become permanent markets, and so Turkey will maintain its role in setting a benchmark in the international scrap market.

Regarding the possibility of a ban on scrap exports by the EU, Björkman said that it is becoming a likelihood and that any potential ban seemed to be targeting non-OECD countries at first, but now OECD countries seem likely to be included as well. The European Parliament will vote on a ban on November 17 and it could come into force in 2026. He added that the scrap tonnage recycled in the EU is too large; even if a few million tons will likely remain in the EU, the rest will need to find other markets.

Traders at IREPAS: Trade routes are changing due to both war and energy crisis

F. D. Baysal, chairman of the traders committee, commented on the changing trade routes for Russian steel after the start of the war in Ukraine, indicating that Russian steel is mostly going to China, Egypt, Taiwan and Turkey, and “to our surprise 3.5 million mt of Russian slab is still going to the EU, to the mills that are Russian-owned”, he added. He went on to talk about energy prices, another topic of heated discussion throughout the conference, pointing out that the EU is affected the most, but even within the EU not every country is affected to the same extent.

According to Mr. Baysal, in Germany the cost of energy stands at $470/MWh, while it is at $200/MWh in Spain, which is similar to Turkey. Although energy prices have risen worldwide, there are countries with serious advantages like the US, an exporter of gas, GCC countries, and also China, since they are getting Russian gas, as he reminded participants.

The committee chairman said that the traders committee does not expect a lot of changes in the EU policy regarding steel import quotas for Turkey, “I don’t think EU mills will allow that,” he added. Mr. Baysal indicated that some suppliers such as North African countries and the UAE are now exporting to the EU and will eventually gain some market share in the region. He stated that the markets for Turkey are limited, Turkish supplies are mainly taken by countries that are not as much affected by the energy crisis like China or India. Apart from this, access to the US market is limited due to Section 232 and to the EU because of the quota.

Regarding steel imports into the US, Baysal said he does not expect a huge increase in imports, as there is not a strong increase in demand, while he added that there are countries that are exempt from Section 232 like Mexico, Canada and the EU, though  EU has a disadvantage in terms of energy.

Answering a question on semi-finished steel imports from Southeast Asia to Turkey and Europe, the traders committee chairman said that he does not think it is going to be permanent, as, when energy costs go back to normal, the EU will buy from its traditional sources. However, he admitted that North African countries such as Egypt and Algeria or GCC countries such as the UAE will gain some market share in the EU and may be able to hold on to it.

Producers at IREPAS: Energy prices and inflation put pressure on production

Murat Cebecioglu, the chairman of IREPAS and of the IREPAS producers committee, informed the participants about the situation in certain countries, stating that many countries have been negatively affected by inflation rates, energy prices and declining steel production, while the US market remains stable, with its imports going down, an increase expected in its rebar consumption amid new infrastructure projects, and more capacity coming from domestic micro mills. He also noted that, in some other countries such as Qatar and Kuwait, the situation seems a bit better with some infrastructure projects planned.

Commenting on declining steel production, Mr. Cebecioglu said production cuts are already seen which will probably balance the drop in demand, though huge uncertainty remains for the next few quarters, also fueled by some political issues, adding that doing business will be extremely difficult not only in the EU, but elsewhere also.

He went on to say that for Turkey energy costs are the main issue causing a reduction in production and uncertainty is not helping mills to make long-term plans.Regarding Turkey’s sales prospects, “Right after the start of the war, Turkey was able to sell huge quantities to the EU, but now the EU has found other sources that are not included in its quota system,” the committee chairman noted. He underlined that, today, with Asian countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia selling to the EU with CFR prices which are lower than Turkey’s FOB prices, “there is no way Turkey can compete”.

Answering a question regarding the disturbance caused in the markets by Russian supplies, Cebecioglu commented that, from 2024, Russian slab and billet will be banned in the EU and Canada’s announcement that it will sanction any imported steel produced from Russian material causes hesitation to use Russian material. He added that Russian exports are disturbing prices in many markets and producers globally are suffering, with only limited markets remaining for sales opportunities.

As a result of the US ITC’s affirmative determinations, the US DOC will issue antidumping duty orders on imports of this product from Belarus, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates. Final antidumping duties were as follows:

• Belarus             : 280.02 percent
• Russia               : 436.80-756.93 percent
• UAE                   :    84.10 percent

The US ITC also made a negative finding concerning critical circumstances with regard to imports of this product from Russia.  As a result, imports of carbon and certain alloy steel wire rod from Russia will not be subject to retroactive antidumping duties.

Belarus

• BSW (BMZ)                                         : 280.02%

Russia

• Abinsk Electric Steel Works Ltd     : 756.93%
• JSC NLMK-Ural                                 : 756.93%
• All others                                             : 436.80%

UAE

• Emirates Steel Industries PJSC      :    84.10%
• All others                                             :    84.10%

Additionally, after the US DOC preliminarily found that critical circumstances exist with respect to mandatory Russian respondents, Abinsk and NLMK Ural, and all other producers and exporters of wire rod from Russia, the US DOC received no comments from the producers. Thus, for these final determinations, the US DOC continues to find that critical circumstances exist for imports from all producers and exporters of wire rod from Russia.

Belarus

• Belarus-Wide Entity                                     : 280.02%

Russia

• Abinsk Electric Steel Works Ltd.               : 756.93%
• JSC NLMK-Ural                                            : 756.93%
• All Others                                                        : 436.80%

UAE

• Emirates Steel Industries PJSC                  :   84.10%
• All Others                                                        :   84.10%

Upon publication of the final affirmative antidumping determinations, the US DOC will instruct US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to collect cash deposits equal to the applicable final weighted-average dumping rates. Since the US DOC also found that critical circumstances exist in the Russia investigation with respect to all exporters/producers, it will instruct CBP to impose the required cash deposit rates retroactively on all entries of carbon and alloy steel wire rod from Russia effective 90 days prior to publication of the preliminary determination in the Federal Register.

The US International Trade Commission (US ITC) is scheduled to make its final determinations on or about January 5, 2018. If the ITC makes affirmative final determinations that imports of carbon and alloy steel wire rod from Belarus, Russia and the UAE materially injure, or threaten material injury to, the domestic industry, the US DOC will issue antidumping orders.

The products in question currently fall under the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) 7213.91.3011, 7213.91.3015, 7213.91.3020, 7213.91.3093, 7213.91.4500, 7213.91.6000, 7213.99.0030, 7227.20.0030, 7227.20.0080, 7227.90.6010, 7227.90.6020, 7227.90.6030 and 7227.90.6035.