The same pattern continues to prevail in the global long steel products market – weak demand, new capacities and mills running below where they should be. The global picture has narrowed: demand is flat and partly seasonal, supply keeps increasing and the supply-demand balance looks worse every week. The main issue is not really demand or supply, it is about who can still move material. The tonnages are there but trading opportunities have shrunk and competition is relentless. China keeps exporting because it must and, with most traditional markets closing behind protective barriers, exporters are fighting over the same limited opportunities for open trade.

Mills lack profitability, buyers lack interest, system lacks oxygen

Prices appear stable, but confidence seems to be absent. Mills remain busy, but lack profitability, while buyers hold stocks, but have no appetite to buy more. The system still functions, but with less and less oxygen.

Uncertainty still predominates, 2026 foreseen to be difficult for exporters

Uncertainty is still the prevailing tone in the market. The recent China-US talks were not as positive as the leaders described, similar to the situation regarding China’s five-year plan. It seems that China will continue to flood the market with 10 million tonnes every month. On the other hand, due to the 50 percent Section 232 tariffs, US imports will be reduced by 10 million tonnes annually and the new safeguard system in the EU will take approximately another 20 million tonnes of demand from the import market. This means import demand will be down approximately 30 million tonnes annually. With total Chinese exports increasing by around 60 million tonnes, next year will be very difficult for exporting countries.

Longs imports into EU almost at standstill, regional prices foreseen to increase by Q1

In the EU, the uncertainties about CBAM, reduced quotas and higher duties have led to an almost 100 percent standstill in imports of long steel products into the EU market.  As the shipments ordered a month ago are now entering the market, the impact on domestic mills’ price increases is still not visible. The seasonal demand trend will not provide any help either to bring prices up. However, it is expected that the prices of EU domestic producers will increase significantly in the first quarter of 2026 at the latest due to the absence of import alternatives.

New capacities in US increase pressure on prices

US long product demand remains flat and below 2024 levels, while domestic supply has expanded with new mill capacities, adding pressure on prices. Imports are minimal due to the 50 percent Section 232 duty, compounded by the AD/CVD tariffs on traditional suppliers.

Extended US government shutdown hits confidence levels in domestic market

The 0.25 percent interest rate cut in the US has done little to revive construction activity, and even a further reduction of a similar scale expected in December would not significantly shift market sentiment. The ongoing US government shutdown – now exceeding 30 days – has further weakened confidence, delaying infrastructure spending and procurement. Overall, the US market remains oversupplied and cautious, with limited visibility for an improvement into early 2026.

Few positives entering the holiday season, protectionism here to stay for now

We are entering the holiday season up to mid-February and so market activity will be slower than usual in the northern hemisphere. It is very tough to point to real positives in the market, but at least we know where we stand now. Protectionism is not just a temporary phase, it is the current framework market players have to operate in. This at least brings a certain level of stability: there are fewer unexpected twists and there is somewhat greater predictability in the market.

At least no escalation in US-China trade tensions, future interest rate cuts may help

Another positive development is that the trade war between the US and China has not escalated. Further interest cuts in 2026 will certainly help, if they happen.

Current market status unstable, with unsatisfactory outlook

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable with a tough, slow and unsatisfactory outlook.

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19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Athenaeum InterContinental Athens Hotel

Day 2: Monday, April 28, 2025

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:30 – 10:50                   SESSION ONE – Critical changes in the global long steel markets and macroeconomic overview

- Long products market outlook

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group

- Macroeconomic Overview

Nikos Vettas, Professor, Athens University of Economics and Business / General Director, Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research

10:50 – 11:20                     Networking break

11:20 – 13:00                    SESSION TWO – Major factors effecting the markets

- Chinese steel market outlook

Su Changyong, Vice Chairman, Metallurgical Council of CCPIT / Deputy Secretary General, CISA / President, Metallurgical Industry Press

- Trump’s trade policy and EU reactions: what lies ahead for steel trade?

Matthew Nolan, Counsel, ArentFox Schiff LLP

Nikolay Mizulin, Partner and Co-leader of International Trade, Mayer Brown

Bulent Hacioglu, Managing Partner, Trade Resources Company

- The next phase of CBAM: preparing for 2026 and beyond

Jamie Mcleod, Senior Manager, Customs, Crowe U.K. LLP

13:00 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, April 29, 2025

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

The tariffs in question will remain in force until the subject countries meet President Trump’s requirements. In the meantime should these countries respond to the US tariffs with similar measures or tariffs, Trump may increase or expand the scope of duties.

The pressure in the global long steel products market is increasing as there is no positive news from China yet, while everywhere there is weak demand, market protection and excess capacity. Some questions about the future are expected to receive answers after Trump’s inauguration on January 20

Still no positive news heard from China

Chinese export data for November 2024 showed that China was on its way to a record year in steel exports. The economic news coming from China is less than encouraging and there is no anticipation of any resurgence in its domestic demand for long steel products in 2025. In fact, it is puzzling how Chinese steel users still manage to consume 900 million mt of steel annually.

Global markets face economic strains, inflationary pressures and trade measures

The global economy faces significant challenges amid uncertainties over US trade policy before the new administration takes office. The proposed tariffs, including a 25 percent duty on imports from Canada and Mexico, could disrupt supply chains, raise costs and increase global economic strains. Rising borrowing costs could further burden industries like construction, which are already struggling with low demand and inflationary pressures. While some importing countries who are already subject to Section 232 tariffs may benefit from a more level playing field in the US, the proposed tariffs may also increase costs for domestic construction. These costs impact businesses, especially in capital-intensive industries like construction and could slow economic growth further, thus adversely affecting steel demand in general.

Could actions by Trump prove to be counter-productive?

In the US, after Trump becomes president again, mass deportations of undocumented workers could create labour shortages, particularly in construction, driving up costs and slowing growth. Domestic mills, like Commercial Metals, report losses due to domestic competition with high production capacities recently added by all domestic mills and with more capacity increases expected. While rebuilding after the Los Angeles fires may eventually boost activity, this may still be years away.

Europe still experiencing negative growth, to issue new protective measures

Europe is still experiencing negative growth. The European Union is anticipated to announce a revision of its protective measures on April 1. Turkey and India have also announced market protection measures.

Unpredictable period with low visibility ahead: what will China do?

Although market observers are expecting some answers to their questions to be made clear after January 20, the fact is that we are probably entering a very unpredictable period with low visibility. That said, there is still hope that after its New Year holiday China may repeat what it did back in 2016, but we need to wait for another month to find out.

Very strong competition in very poor market, with quite unsatisfactory outlook

Competition in the market is very strong, while the market can be described as very poor and unstable, with a very unsatisfactory outlook.

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The global long steel products market has mostly entered the holiday period. In many markets, business will start moving only after January 13. Many uncertain factors lie ahead for the post-holiday period, including the situation regarding Chinese exports, the actions likely to be taken by the new US administration and the difficulties faced by the steel industry in Europe.

Chinese stimulus measures so far not expected to have huge impact on exports

In the short term, the Asian markets are speculating on the positive sentiment from China, but it is hard to see how it will convert into real upward movement. It seems the Chinese government is going to make another attempt to increase liquidity to stimulate domestic demand. However, domestic prices are still very low in China and so the potential short-term impact on exporters will probably be limited and they will not change current export volumes until the Chinese steel industry slows down production. However, Chinese Premier Xi Jinping has pledged that China will meet its ambitious GDP growth target of five percent this year and remain the engine of global economic expansion, and so no production cuts would be anticipated. As a result, steel prices in the international markets, except in the US, will suffer going forward.

What are the prospects for Chinese steel exports in Q1?

The important sectors in the Chinese domestic economy, steel in general, and construction and manufacturing, are all in deflationary mode. Steel exports from China have increased during the fourth quarter. It is yet to be seen if Chinese exporters have already booked export orders for the first quarter. They may not have full export order books as demand and prices from overseas customers have fallen further and quantities are less.

Energy prices in Europe surge to 2022 levels, mills announce shutdowns

In the meantime, energy prices have surged to very high levels again in Europe, levels not seen since 2022, and mills in the region have started announcing shutdowns. Usually, this would push prices up but in the current low season we have to wait and see what happens.

Weak demand in Europe, luckily prices have not fallen even further

The market in Europe is still extremely challenging. Domestic producers are holding prices low to fight against imports and to collect any orders they can. But there is no way for them to reduce their prices further as their costs simply do not allow that. Demand is very weak. Many benders are still accepting long-term projects at price levels which do not correspond to current replacement costs. Mills are taking measures to reduce offers by working shorter hours or stopping liquid steel production for a few months. Nevertheless, it is a good sign that prices have not slid down any further despite the approach of the end of the year.

New US administration may trigger even greater difficulties for global long steel trade

Trade in the global long steel products market may enter a period of even greater difficulties with the change in the US administration. Proposed additional duties may trigger other countries to retaliate and it may soon become more difficult to trade globally.

Difficult winter anticipated for US domestic steel market

US domestic mills have been keeping prices low and are still offering discounts on already low prices. In addition, most US buyers, not trusting import price guarantees, refrain from ordering their usual quantities. Interest rates have eased a bit, but are still on the high side for investments. In short, a not so pleasant winter is expected in the US steel market. On the other hand, US domestic scrap pricing for December is expected to be down, for the first time in two decades.

Market is unstable with difficult and unpredictable outlook

Under these circumstances, the situation in the global longs market, where competition remains very tough and more local than global, may be described as unstable and complicated with a difficult unpredictable outlook.

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Raw material costs are increasing once again and energy prices are expected to be very high at least until March 2023. Mills are facing cost pressures once more in the global long steel products market. Business activity has been reduced during the past month and, even though scrap and iron ore prices have gone up, net margins have either at best kept pace or in some cases narrowed. In this overall context, the first quarter of 2023 could be a very difficult one for the global long products market, even the worst quarter in a long time.

Mills will be forced to cut outputs further to avoid incurring losses

It looks like some mills are trying not to reduce their outputs too much or only as much as necessary as they will be finishing this year with positive results due to the good performance recorded in the first half of the year. However, the situation will probably be a lot different next year and they will be forced to reduce outputs further in order to minimize losses on their balance sheets. Another reason is that, if they continue to maintain their production levels and sell at a loss, it is very likely that they will face trade measures. In these circumstances, it will take some more time for a new supply-demand balance to be seen in the market.

Uncertainly prevails in EU market over supply and energy costs, imports an option

The gap between domestic and import prices has shrunk so much in the European market that more and more mills have bought domestic, respectively inner EU material in small volumes as uncertainty prevails. Steel buyers in the EU market have started to become nervous about what will happen after the holidays, as the anticipated longer revamps by mills will very likely limit supply. On the other hand, there is a big question mark over the weather conditions in the first quarter of next year. If temperatures remain mild, then demand for construction, which has been healthy so far, will pick up earlier and help mills to raise their prices. However, there is also uncertainty in relation to energy prices, which places a question mark over everything within the EU.

Economies doing better than expected, Buy American package in US could stir up trade battle

After the shock of the war in Ukraine and of energy price hikes, the markets seem to have digested the interruptions of logistic chains and economies look better than expected. The general outlook for 2023 is also better now. That said, in the US the new Buy American investment package will be in force from January 1 and it will be a huge challenge for the EU. A new trade battle could be in the offing.

Possible new official stance on Covid in China could boost steel demand

Covid-19 seems to be under control everywhere except in China. There are some signs that China may quietly dismantle its zero-Covid policy after the Chinese New Year holiday in January. This will hopefully lead to an increase in demand for all steel products.

Softer approach to interest rates could also have a positive impact on steel demand

December is a short month, and there is pent-up insecurity on what energy costs will be like in January, or even tomorrow. On the other hand, we understand governments are concerned about markets and so they talk more softly about interest rate increases and the central banks also appear to be easing off on the issue of interest rates. This may also have a positive impact on demand.

Competition becomes fiercer and increasingly regionalized

Competition in the market is very difficult and fierce wherever allowed. Otherwise, it is more and more regional as markets are increasingly protected. Domestic mills compete with each other and with possible imports. Volume chasing by domestic mills is very detrimental, leading to even lower prices, without the increase in additional volumes.

Outlook for the current unstable market is very challenging and unpredictable

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as highly unstable and unpredictable. The outlook is also very challenging and unpredictable. The outlook for the first quarter of 2023 is negative and it could be the worst quarter in a long time. The situation is certainly tough, but with the end in sight.

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SE said imports of the product, which falls under HS codes 7213.91.03 and 7213.99.99, will continue to be subject to a 41 percent AD levy. The decision follows a request from domestic producers Ternium Mexico, Deacero and TA 2000, formerly known as Talleres y Aceros, in August 2020. The extended antidumping duties are effective from 11 December, 2021, onward.

According to the agreement, China has also pledged strong commitments on currency practices regarding currency devaluations and exchange rates. Meanwhile, for the first time in any trade agreement, China has agreed to end its practice of forcing foreign companies to transfer their technology to Chinese companies in order to gain market access.