The review, which was launched upon the application made by local producer InfraBuild, covered the period between October 1, 2023 and September 30, 2024. The commission has found that the expiration of the antidumping measures in respect of exports of rebar from South Korea and Spain would lead, or would be likely to lead, to a continuation of, or a recurrence of, the dumping and the material injury that the antidumping measures are intended to prevent.

Accordingly, the commission recommended that the duties continue and new duty rates for the parties subject to the review be revised as follows:

South Korea

1. Daehan Steel Co., Ltd
   • Current rate of duty : 4.7%
   • New rate of duty : 2.3%
2. Dongkuk Steel Mill Co., Ltd
   • Current rate of duty : Floor price
   • New rate of duty : 2.5%
3. Other exporters
   • Current rate of duty : 8.5%
   • New rate of duty : 12.0%

Spain

1. Compañía Española de Laminación, S.L. (CELSA)
   • Current rate of duty : 9.4%
   • New rate of duty : 12.4%
2. Other exporters except Nervacero S.A.
   • Current rate of duty : 11.8%
   • New rate of duty : 15.0%

The given products in various diameters up to and including 50 mm are currently classified under the following codes in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule

• 7213.10.00.42,
• 7214.20.00.47,
• 7227.90.10.69,
• 7227.90.90.01,
• 7227.90.90.02,
• 7227.90.90.04,
• 7228.30.10.70,
• 7228.30.90.40,
• 7228.60.10.72

As a result of the ITC’s affirmative determinations, the existing orders on imports of this product from Belarus, Italy, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom will remain in place.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the global long products market has recently been suffering from declining imports and exports and a lack of supply-demand balance.

The IREPAS chairman said the reduced production levels in 2022 have been carried over into 2023 and are able to satisfy actual consumption, which has resulted in an aversion to imported steel due to the lack of certainty, leading to a decline in the scope of international business.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Output cuts in EU to bring down scrap prices

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the committee meeting findings stating that the past few months have been challenging for the global steel market due to drastic price drops, higher energy prices and weak global demand.

Mr. Björkman pointed out that the energy crisis in the EU has eased, going back to pre-war levels and standing at a 10-year average, though high interest rates still remain a challenge. He said that there is a likelihood of production cuts ahead of the summer, which would bring down scrap prices and orders in the EU.

Regarding the potential consequences of the European Parliament’s recent revision of its Waste Shipment Regulation, Mr. Björkman stated that scrap shipments to non-OECD countries will be a major challenge, fortunately Turkey – which is a major destination for scrap supply – will not be affected. In addition, the committee chairman noted that within a five-year timeframe the EU will consume most of the scrap generated in the region itself since its steel production will shift to electric arc furnaces within the scope of green steel targets.

Aside from multiple challenges, Turkey is facing muted trade activities ahead of the approaching elections amid production cuts and weak demand for finished steel products, the committee chairman stated. He went on to say that once the election period is over Turkey is likely to see some pick-up in domestic business, though the demand in the local market will not be sufficient and so Turkey will have to try to export again. Regarding Turkey’s scrap demand, the committee chairman said that “a slower normal demand” is expected in the coming months.

Traders at IREPAS: Rough times for long steel industry         

Wilhelm Alff, chairman of the traders committee, said that the steel industry, especially the Turkish long steel industry, is going through very rough times amid weak domestic markets, high energy costs, a lot of trade cases, and new competition in the form of new players in the market such as Iran, India, China, the Middle East and Africa. Commenting on the Turkish market situation, the committee chairman said that areas which were previously reachable for Turkish long steel products are now getting less and less so, due to greater competition. He also drew attention to the fact that, as of March 31, Turkey had only used less than five percent of its EU rebar import quota, because of the reduction in EU steel demand and the increasing number of new mills in the region, for instance, the competitive offers from Oman and Egypt. He went on to say that, with the current market prices in the EU, which have been on a drastic downtrend since October last year and are at levels almost equal to import prices, buyers prefer domestic sourcing rather than waiting for late arrivals. The traders committee predicted that the EU quota situation will continue like this for at least another quarter.

Looking at China, Mr. Alff said that China’s tightening of its controls on overcapacity is likely to have a significant effect on market dynamics, resulting in decreased steel output which will support prices in turn. However, he added that this will also depend on how strictly these controls are implemented. The committee chairman stated that the anticipated demand in China failed to materialize after the New Year holidays and so it may be possible to see competitively-priced Chinese steel sold in the export markets. However, the extent to which this will happen depends on the level of demand in China and in the global market. He said that, if Chinese steel demand continues to be weaker than expected, Chinese suppliers may turn to the export markets, while China may face some obstacles due to trade measures.

Regarding the possible outcomes of the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism, Alff said that the approval of this mechanism is a significant move and it could face resistance from exporting countries such as China and India as they may consider these measures as unfair practice. He added that these countries may also respond with tariffs on European goods, which could lead to trade frictions. The committee chairman said that the eventual carbon border tax is likely to increase the cost of imported goods that have a heavy carbon footprint, which will result in difficulties for some countries as regards competing in the EU.

Producers at IREPAS: Falling energy costs and scrap prices may create opportunities   

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, pointed out that the steel industry has been experiencing challenging times amid inflation and rising interest rates, which pose a big problem for investors in making decisions about their investments. He also said that supply and demand are not balanced and that exports and imports are declining everywhere, while adding that capacity utilization rates are way below usual levels. All these factors put pressure on the market, he noted. However, he also pointed to some positive factors, saying that energy costs and scrap prices are coming down.

Commenting on Turkey, the committee chairman said that the country has lost its major traditional export markets and its leading position, adding that the countries to which Turkey used to export, like Egypt, the GCC and Indonesia, have become exporters themselves. Another obstacle facing Turkish exports are trade cases. It is difficult to sell to the US, Canada and the EU and it is impossible to sell to Singapore and Hong Kong. He stated that, with falling energy costs and scrap prices, Turkey may have the chance to do business again. Regarding the steel demand expected in Turkey’s southern region following the devastating earthquakes in February, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that the unfortunate disaster will create demand, not only for the steel industry, but also for downstream segments as well. However, he pointed out that the demand will be spread over years, adding that it is not going to come all at once like people have been saying.

Turning to China, Cebecioğlu said that the Chinese market has not picked up after the New Year holidays, while he indicated that Chinese traders are very aggressive and very much active in the export markets. The IREPAS chairman underlined that China affects all market players because of its big capacity and that the Chinese are exporting to every corner of the world, so “if they stick to reducing production, this might help”.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at InterContinental Barcelona

Day 2: Monday, May 8, 2023

09:00 – 09:10                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:10 – 10:50                    SESSION ONE: Long Products and macro economy

- Long products market outlook

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group 

- Keynote Speech :Eng Ahmed Ezz, Chairman, Ezz Industries

- Macroeconomic overview

Pedro Videla, Professor and Head of the Economics Department, IESE Business School

10:50 – 11:20                     Networking break

11:20 – 13:00                     SESSION TWO: Critical changes in markets

- Spanish steel market outlook

Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, Chief Economist, UNESID

- Turkish steel market outlook

Dr. Veysel Yayan, Secretary General, Turkish Steel Producers Association (TSPA)

- Chinese steel market outlook

• Outlook for Chinese steel production and consumption in 2023 compared to the previous year. How will the different steel-consuming industries perform?
• What steps is China is taking towards green technologies?
• How long will the increase of its EAF-based steel capacities take?
• Perspective for semis imports in China in the next few years
• With the Chinese steel industry’s ongoing focus on enlarging EAF-based production, what is the outlook for scrap supply? Will imports of scrap increase?
• China’s strategy to secure iron ore supply both from domestic mines and overseas investments

Frank (Shaoliang) Zhong, Deputy Director General, World Steel Association / Chief Representative, World Steel Association Beijing Office

- US trade policy and steel: has anything really changed post-Trump?

• The current state of US Trade measures
• Economic policies affecting steel import trade
• Comparison with past Trump administration policies

Matthew Nolan, Partner, Arent Fox LLP and Bulent R. Hacioglu, Managing Partner, Trade Resources Company

13:00 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                  Cocktail Reception InterContinental Barcelona

Day 3: Tuesday, May 9, 2023

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

The DOC found that revocation of the antidumping duty orders on the given product from the given countries would be likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of dumping.

The DOC has determined weighted-average dumping margins of up to 280.02 percent for Belarus, 18.89 percent for Italy, 41.10 percent for South Korea, 756.93 percent for Russia, 142.26 percent for South Africa, 32.64 percent for Spain, 4.44 percent for Turkey, 44.03 percent for Ukraine, 84.10 percent for the UAE, and 147.63 percent for the UK.

The products in question are currently classifiable in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) under subheading 7213.91.3011, 7213.91.3015, 7213.91.3020, 7213.91.3093; 7213.91.4500, 7213.91.6000, 7213.99.0030, 7227.20.0030, 7227.20.0080, 7227.90.6010, 7227.90.6020, 7227.90.6030, and 7227.90.6035.

The anti dumping duties are at the following levels:

• Greece       :42.1 percent
• Indonesia : 0-9.3 percent
• Spain         : 6.3 percent
• Taiwan      : 4.4 percent

The products subject to the reviews fall under the HS codes 7213.10.00.42, 7214.20.00.47, 7227.90.10.69, 7227.90.90.01, 7227.90.90.02, 7227.90.90.04, 7227.90.90.42, 7228.30.10.70, 7228.30.90.40 and 7228.60.10.72.

The applicable duties range between 2.4 percent and 108.5 percent. The antidumping duties were imposed in May 2017.

The products in question currently fall under Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers 7213.10.00.11, 7213.10.00.12, 7213.10.00.13, 7213.10.00.90, 7214.20.00.11, 7214.20.00.12, 7214.20.00.13, 7214.20.00.14, 7214.20.00.21, 7214.20.00.22, 7214.20.00.23, 7214.20.00.24, 7214.20.00.31, 7214.20.00.32, 7214.20.00.33, 7214.20.00.34, 7214.20.00.90, 7215.90.00.20, 7215.90.00.30, 7215.90.00.50, 7228.30.00.51, 7228.30.00.52 and 7228.30.00.53.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the situation in the global long steel products market is deteriorating as we have entered a rising-cost business cycle, adding that the situation is dramatic and huge uncertainty lies ahead.

The IREPAS chairman said the current crisis is a once-in-a-generation event with mills and consumers facing an unprecedented increase in energy prices, particularly in the EU, but also almost everywhere else. In addition to the energy crisis, there is also a logistics crisis, he said, adding that production cuts are expected soon, which will balance the drop in demand caused by higher interest rates and costs, as well as by shortages of many items.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Lower scrap demand prevails in market, except in South Asia

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the committee meeting findings stating that energy prices, especially in the EU, were the main topic of the conference. He added that during summer and autumn all-time record high levels were recorded for natural gas and electricity prices. The committee chairman indicated that interest rates have been hiked to tame inflation, pushing the US dollar to an all-time high against other currencies.

Commenting on scrap demand, Mr. Björkman said that US scrap demand had slowed down and that mills there are running at slightly lower capacities, pressuring scrap and iron ore prices, adding that supply of new production scrap which was previously in good shape has been slower. Also, for China, he noted that, despite a significant stimulus, demand for steel and raw materials has been weakening, with the outlook remaining negative. Scrap demand is significantly lower in some parts of the EU, and this has been offset by Southeast Asian demand where energy problems are not so severe. Also, logistics are another issue for the EU market given the all-time low water levels on the Rhine River, as Europe’s river system is an important part of the EU’s scrap exports.

According to the chairman of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee, the demand situation in Turkey, which has also been struggling with high energy prices, is under pressure from alternatives to scrap such as semi-finished products, which it has been possible to get at lower price levels. Mr. Björkman explained that Turkey is not only buying Russian billet, but also ex-Asia billet, and that the pressure coming from cheaper billet is affecting Turkish mills’ ability to buy scrap. He added that, thanks to the alternative destinations for scrap such as some Asian countries, the pressure on prices in the market which Turkey was able to exert has been mitigated, though these alternative destinations are not likely to become permanent markets, and so Turkey will maintain its role in setting a benchmark in the international scrap market.

Regarding the possibility of a ban on scrap exports by the EU, Björkman said that it is becoming a likelihood and that any potential ban seemed to be targeting non-OECD countries at first, but now OECD countries seem likely to be included as well. The European Parliament will vote on a ban on November 17 and it could come into force in 2026. He added that the scrap tonnage recycled in the EU is too large; even if a few million tons will likely remain in the EU, the rest will need to find other markets.

Traders at IREPAS: Trade routes are changing due to both war and energy crisis

F. D. Baysal, chairman of the traders committee, commented on the changing trade routes for Russian steel after the start of the war in Ukraine, indicating that Russian steel is mostly going to China, Egypt, Taiwan and Turkey, and “to our surprise 3.5 million mt of Russian slab is still going to the EU, to the mills that are Russian-owned”, he added. He went on to talk about energy prices, another topic of heated discussion throughout the conference, pointing out that the EU is affected the most, but even within the EU not every country is affected to the same extent.

According to Mr. Baysal, in Germany the cost of energy stands at $470/MWh, while it is at $200/MWh in Spain, which is similar to Turkey. Although energy prices have risen worldwide, there are countries with serious advantages like the US, an exporter of gas, GCC countries, and also China, since they are getting Russian gas, as he reminded participants.

The committee chairman said that the traders committee does not expect a lot of changes in the EU policy regarding steel import quotas for Turkey, “I don’t think EU mills will allow that,” he added. Mr. Baysal indicated that some suppliers such as North African countries and the UAE are now exporting to the EU and will eventually gain some market share in the region. He stated that the markets for Turkey are limited, Turkish supplies are mainly taken by countries that are not as much affected by the energy crisis like China or India. Apart from this, access to the US market is limited due to Section 232 and to the EU because of the quota.

Regarding steel imports into the US, Baysal said he does not expect a huge increase in imports, as there is not a strong increase in demand, while he added that there are countries that are exempt from Section 232 like Mexico, Canada and the EU, though  EU has a disadvantage in terms of energy.

Answering a question on semi-finished steel imports from Southeast Asia to Turkey and Europe, the traders committee chairman said that he does not think it is going to be permanent, as, when energy costs go back to normal, the EU will buy from its traditional sources. However, he admitted that North African countries such as Egypt and Algeria or GCC countries such as the UAE will gain some market share in the EU and may be able to hold on to it.

Producers at IREPAS: Energy prices and inflation put pressure on production

Murat Cebecioglu, the chairman of IREPAS and of the IREPAS producers committee, informed the participants about the situation in certain countries, stating that many countries have been negatively affected by inflation rates, energy prices and declining steel production, while the US market remains stable, with its imports going down, an increase expected in its rebar consumption amid new infrastructure projects, and more capacity coming from domestic micro mills. He also noted that, in some other countries such as Qatar and Kuwait, the situation seems a bit better with some infrastructure projects planned.

Commenting on declining steel production, Mr. Cebecioglu said production cuts are already seen which will probably balance the drop in demand, though huge uncertainty remains for the next few quarters, also fueled by some political issues, adding that doing business will be extremely difficult not only in the EU, but elsewhere also.

He went on to say that for Turkey energy costs are the main issue causing a reduction in production and uncertainty is not helping mills to make long-term plans.Regarding Turkey’s sales prospects, “Right after the start of the war, Turkey was able to sell huge quantities to the EU, but now the EU has found other sources that are not included in its quota system,” the committee chairman noted. He underlined that, today, with Asian countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia selling to the EU with CFR prices which are lower than Turkey’s FOB prices, “there is no way Turkey can compete”.

Answering a question regarding the disturbance caused in the markets by Russian supplies, Cebecioglu commented that, from 2024, Russian slab and billet will be banned in the EU and Canada’s announcement that it will sanction any imported steel produced from Russian material causes hesitation to use Russian material. He added that Russian exports are disturbing prices in many markets and producers globally are suffering, with only limited markets remaining for sales opportunities.