There were 223 producer representatives among the 918 registered delegates from a total of 70 different countries. There were also 69 registrations representing 31 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the supply was no longer an issue in the global long steel products market, and demand would be the driving factor from now on, though it would probably be rather slow for a while because prices are normalizing and delivery periods are becoming shorter. He also added that the cost of producing steel is increasing, especially on the energy side.

IREPAS chairman also said the logistics situation is getting worse in terms of constituting a bottleneck. Furthermore, the strong surge in electricity costs, which have tripled or quadrupled since August this year, has tightened the pressure on many mills, meaning they have to seek to pass on cost increases to their customers, he added. Mr. Cebecioglu also said that the outlook for the market in the next quarter is much more positive than it has been seen for some time despite several uncertainties.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Scrap demand level is very supportive of the market

Jens Björkman from Stena Metal International, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, commented on the performance of the steel market and stated that general conditions are expected to improve amid quite substantial support from governments for a rebound after lockdowns. “We will continue to see markets resuming to more normal circumstances next year. We expect the markets to perform well,” Mr. Björkman noted.

The raw material committee chairman pointed out that China is planning to cap its steel production in the first quarter at lower levels, meaning that demand for raw materials will also remain limited. As a result, demand in China will be slightly lower during the first quarter next year.

Commenting on the scrap market, especially in Turkey, Mr. Björkman said that seasonally the October-November period is normally a very strong production period, with strong prices also. He added that, with continued strong production, the demand level is very supportive of the market. Regarding threats of scrap bans from certain countries and regions, the Stena official commented, “The risks of that happening are pretty mild, as it is such an important trade”.

Answering a question about financing of the raw materials trade, the raw material committee chairman underlined that, in terms of trade finance, such as letters of credit, there is no shortage of financing, while, on the other hand, there are some issues regarding credit insurance when selling material to the EU market or the domestic market. “Credit insurance, i.e., the ability to cover credit with insurance, has been very difficult during the pandemic and also the post-pandemic period. We are seeing some signs that it might get a little bit better as raw material buyers are performing better and are actually delivering very strong quarterly and annual results, which alleviates the situation for insurance. However, in general it has been a slow rebound so far,” Björkman said.

Traders at IREPAS: Prices will not decrease at least until Q2 2022

F. D. Baysal from Seba International, co-chairman of the traders committee, answered questions during a panel discussion. Mr. Baysal said he believed that there is definitely a genuine recovery. He pointed out that steel production slowed down just to adjust to demand, not because the mills were not able to maintain production, but because most mills are run in an automated manner and are capable of working with minimum staff.

Commenting on the outlook for EU imports, the traders committee chairman said that demand for imports in the EU has been strong for some time and will continue, though imports face other limitations: for example, specifically for rebar, homologation and quotas are the limiting factors. “The Turkish rebar quota opening on October 1 got consumed in a single day, with many importers still holding back significant volumes to clear customs as of January 1. Also, significant imports from other developing countries are not realistic, as it takes time to qualify due to homologation procedures which can take up to 15 months,” Mr. Baysal said.

Regarding the recent surges in energy costs worldwide, he pointed out that energy price increases may be permanent, but that the surge seen recently is definitely temporary. He said that in 2008 and 2014 energy prices were even higher than today, but in subsequent years they moved down and even collapsed during the pandemic, resulting in many postponed drillings, production halts, and shutdowns of coal plants. “Going forward, all it takes is for Russia, Saudi Arabia and the US to increase production, and pricing will go back to normal levels again. Obviously, the nations who are importing their energy will be affected the most,” he suggested. He also commented on the situation regarding freight rates and said that the current levels are not a new normal, but they will not go down in the next few months either.

Addressing the issue of the trade talks between the EU and the US, Mr. Baysal said he believed that nothing has changed regarding US trade policy, but things are rather getting worse or staying the same, instead of getting better.

During a discussion on whether China would return to the export markets or otherwise, the traders committee chairman shared with the conference participants a rumored report that the Chinese government is mulling an export tax on steel starting from January 1 next year.

Finally, Baysal commented on current steel price levels and on whether they are here to stay: “Yes, prices will not decrease any time soon, at least not until the second quarter of 2022. Scrap prices decreased a little last month, but shipping prices continued to double or even triple, keeping steel prices at the same levels. High energy costs will continue to negatively affect steel prices. If China continues to decrease production and stay away from the export market, high steel prices may continue for a long while yet. However, in the long run, I think neither shipping prices nor raw material prices will stay this high.”

Producers at IREPAS: Markets have never been better, great time to be in steel business

Michael Setterdahl, from GFG Alliance – Liberty Steel Mills, member of the producers committee, said that it is a great time to be in the steel business.

He went on to say that the markets have never been better and that the first quarter of 2022 will be excellent, as long as China does not start increasing exports, while pointing out that steel consumption is growing at a higher rate in the rest of the world than in China.

Considering that the extra increases in steel production costs amount to €120/mt, Mr. Setterdahl indicated that, in the medium term, there will be CO2 charges or taxes and that there will be surcharges on all products. He said that right now, steel has surcharges on ferroalloys, but there has been very little reference to natural gas or electricity in the pricing of steel. Commenting on energy costs on the other hand, the Liberty official underlined that the EU and emerging markets will be affected the most because they are importing energy. He also noted that increases in electricity from wind power and solar power are expected, but these will be incremental increases, not immediate as in the case of coal energy.

According to Mr. Setterdahl, demand in China is slowing down, with the Chinese demand growth forecast dropping from 6.5 percent to 4.9 percent. “As inventory levels are going up and as Chinese regulators are concerned about the increase in prices for residential buildings amid expensive rebar and cement, I think there is a political push in China to reduce demand,” Setterdahl noted. In response to a question on whether China would resume exports, he said that Chinese mills may want to turn to the export markets to maintain their volumes with domestic consumption slowing down, but Beijing will not allow mass exports, he noted, explaining that 20 million mt of steel exports out of China may be tolerated but, if the figure goes up to the maximum amount of 65 million mt registered a few year ago, Beijing will take action.

Of the many deserving long-term contributors to the IREPAS community, several were awarded plaques at the gala dinner held at the 79th meeting in Istanbul, which marked the 35th anniversary of the foundation of IREPAS.

19:00 – 22:00      Welcome cocktail at Wyndham Grand Athens

September 25th, Monday

09:00 – 09:15      Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:15 – 10:30        SESSION ONE – Global economic outlook

- Global Economic and Market Developments

Vassilis Patikis, Piraeus Bank / Head, Economic Research & Investment Strategy

• Structural Themes for the Post Crisis Global Economy
• US, European and Chinese Cycles
• Market Implications

10:30 – 11:00 Networking break

11:00 – 12:30          SESSION TWO – Critical changes expected in global long steel markets

- Long product market outlook

Jose Angel Rey, Celsa Group / Commercial Director

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

- Latest situation on the North American steel market and short term outlook

Frank Bergren, Metal Partners International / Managing Director

• Key challenges and opportunities in the US long products market
• Section 232
• What’s next for the US market?

- Focus on China: Can China sustain current situation?

Li Xinchuang, China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute (MPI) / President – China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) / Vice Secretary General

• Outlook for Chinese steel market – raw materials and long products
• Is the current domestic demand level sustainable?
• Overcapacity and environmental pollution : Is China going to be able to keep the undertaking on capacity cuts?
• Electrode production and exports
• An outlook for 2018 including AD cases

12:30 – 14:30 Networking lunch

14:30 – 17:00        IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 17:00 Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 17:00 Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 17:00 Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

17:00 - 19:00         Cocktail Reception

September 26th, Tuesday

09:30 – 11:00             SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• Producers Committee
• Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• Traders Committee

Interview with Traders Committee Chairman Mr. Michael Setterdahl :

The 68th meeting of IREPAS (International Rebar Exporters and Producers Association) was held in Doha on March 3-5, 2013. There were 76 producer representatives amongst the 210 registered delegates from 60 different countries.

Yusuf Guven, chairman of the IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee, said that the iron ore inventory strategies implemented in China resulted in increased iron ore prices. He went on to state that China has been importing scrap from the US in line with the uptrend in iron ore prices and, because of this, some scrap availability issues have been seen in the rest of the world. Contrary to the usual seasonal winter situation, scrap inventories have not been available at US ports this winter. Also, domestic scrap prices in the US have moved upwards by $20-40 per ton.

Mr. Guven added that an increase in scrap consumption has been observed in Europe, while demand for steel is expected to remain strong in Turkey. He stated that it is not possible to say scrap is in short supply when looking at the global situation, noting that a certain supply and demand equilibrium exists in the market.

In conclusion, the chairman of the Raw Material Suppliers Committee told participants at the Doha meeting that there are no expectations of high volatility in scrap prices globally, while greater pressure may be seen on prices since scrap consumption is increasing.

Michael Setterdahl, chairman of the Traders Committee, stated that customers worldwide currently prefer to keep their inventories at low levels and to maintain a “sit and wait” stance. “With improved political stability, people will think more optimistically, and when they think like this they buy more steel,” he added, underlining that the trends in scrap and iron ore, coking coal and natural gas are key when watching the global markets. In addition, shortages of electricity, in China for example, should be observed.

The chairman of the Traders Committee also remarked that the economic situation is ready to take off.

Mr. Setterdahl concluded by saying that it is good to see no negativity in the MENA region, while trade between the GCC countries has increased and so the supply and demand situation is more balanced in the region; however, he added that it is unclear whether this situation is permanent.

Ugur Dalbeler, chairman of IREPAS and of the Billet Suppliers Committee, stated that in 2012 the low trend of iron ore prices put pressure on flat product prices. As a result, producers preferred to produce billet rather than slab if they had the option. Even some blast furnaces in Brazil reduced capacity in order not to produce more slabs. Therefore, more billets and less slabs were produced overall in 2012, while in 2013 the expectation is for a significantly reduced
billet output. Mr. Dalbeler said that the committee does not believe that scrap prices will go down and, as steel billet prices seem rather stable, this situation puts pressure on producers.

The IREPAS chairman also said that electric arc furnace-based producers and even integrated mills will either have to raise their prices or they will have to consider reducing their production. In conclusion, he stated, the committee’s view was that, although 2013 seems set to be characterized by sideways price movement, it will definitely be a better year than 2012.

Kim Marti Subirana, chairman of the IREPAS Rebar and Wire Rod Suppliers Committee, stated that 2013 started slower than expected but added that the year will be better than last year as the long steel products market will gain momentum. Business in the Middle East is looking good on the back of ongoing projects, while new projects are also being started. The committee chairman pointed out that new production capacities in the Middle East are on the way and that everything seems under control.

“The Turkish long steel market seems strong with new projects and demand, the Asian markets similarly appear strong, while the situation in Africa is relatively good,” he added. Business in Libya is slow at the moment but the country shows some limited signs of improvement and it is back in the game. Egypt, on the other hand, Kim Marti continued, has been experiencing some restrictions in relation to the US dollar, but business still continues in this country. Although Brazil had been expected to perform better than it actually did, the situation in this country still seems positive, as does the situation in South and Central America. Regarding North America, the committee predicts a good year.

The committee is optimistic regarding 2013 as general demand looks good globally. However, the committee also discussed import restrictions in certain countries, notably in Egypt and Morocco, which constitute a cloud in an overall clear sky.

The emerging markets continue to be important in rebar consumption, Mr. Marti added. He stated in conclusion that long steel product volumes are looking for new markets and this is putting pressure on the markets in question. “We need to correct the supply and demand balance in order not to place pressure on markets,” he said.

Notes to Editors:

IREPAS is a global association of producers and exporters of long steel products. It was founded by CELSA and GERDAU 30 years ago to develop understanding between producers, traders and consumers around the world. Today, IREPAS unites producers, traders, consumers of steel and professionals from the shipping and finance industries.

The 67th meeting of IREPAS (International Rebar Exporters and Producers Association) was held in Munich between September 30^th and October 2^nd, 2012. There were 80 producer representatives from amongst the 276 registered delegates from 37 different countries.

Ioannis Meimaroglu, the chairman of the IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee, said that steel mills have been trying to secure their orders before finalizing their raw material purchases due to instability and difficulties in the finished steel market, which means that they have been obliged to change their strategy from working on stock basis to working mainly on spot basis. He went on to state that this is affecting steel scrap suppliers very negatively since they cannot collect material on a continuous basis, as they do not know at what price level the material will be sold when their customers come to the market.

Mr.Meimaroglou added that this situation is also posing problems for steel producers, as they can never be sure of steel scrap availability at the requested prices on spot basis.

Underlining that scrap suppliers need time to collect scrap and cannot meet demand from steel mills at short notice, Mr.Meimaroglu said that scrap suppliers understand the concerns of the steel mills and the uncertainty in the steel markets, as steel export destinations become more limited and as Chinese steel exports target steel mills’ traditional customers.

He added; it is also very important for steel producers to help keep their raw material suppliers alive, as the latter are facing pressure from finished steel
markets and also price competition in their domestic markets, as well as fluctuations in currency exchange rates and export regulations.

Michael Setterdahl, the chairman of the IREPAS Traders’ Committee, listed the economical crisis and Chinese exports as major concerns in the market, stating that macro decisions made by some governments, especially China,  have recently been impacting the steel prices more than the producers’ own pricing policies. Mr.Setterdahl added that as long steel production is low globally except for China and Turkey , the outlook for prices of long products in 2013 is positive and recapped the discussions by saying “Everything depends on demand and supply, as always.”

Uğur Dalbeler, chairman of both IREPAS and the Billet Suppliers’ Committee, stated that the recent news on Chinese supply has put some pressure on steel billet prices in the international market. However, he went on to say that the view of the billet suppliers’ committee is that downward price movement may not be seen, as downward pressure on prices is expected to be softened by the oncoming winter season. The IREPAS chairman stressed that the real issue for the producers is to achieve healthy margins in business. The committee agreed there are shortages of scrap and that this is the main reason why billet prices have not decreased further. He characterized the general situation in the global billet markets as being in equilibrium. In conclusion, Dalbeler emphasized that, the
difficulties in scrap collection during winter months will provide support not only for scrap but also for billet prices.

Mohammed Al Saadi, the chairman of the IREPAS Rebar and Wire Rod Suppliers Committee, mentioned that the local Turkish market seems strong, with demand at good levels in the market. While the situation in Qatar and other Arab countries seems healthy with high production capacity utilization rates, demand in these countries is also good on the back of ongoing investments and projects. In the meantime, whereas political issues in Syria and Iran have been affecting the business in a negative way, everybody hopes the situation will be resolved in the short term, Mr. Al Saadi said.

Mr. Al Saadi explained that almost 65 percent of the production in Europe, especially Italy and Spain, is exported, adding that the US and Carribean markets seem stable, while global market conditions in general are likely to continue in their current state until next year. The committee considers the main market
concern to be Chinese supply, which also has a psychological impact on business.

Notes to Editors:

IREPAS is a global association of producers and exporters of long steel products. It was founded by CELSA and GERDAU 29 years ago to develop understanding between producers, traders and consumers around the world. Today, IREPAS unites producers, traders, consumers of steel and professionals from the shipping and finance industries.

Michael Setterdahl, the chairman of the IREPAS Traders’ Committee, stated that traders are now increasingly seeing more regionalization in trade. Traders see the trade to North Africa as quiet, while demand coming from the Persian Gulf region has remained strong and Asian billet demand is mostly met by ASIAN producers  and  Russia’s Far East. Traders expressed their concerns regarding the possible oversupply of steel due to impact of international sanctions against Iran  and also regarding the political upheaval in Syria which has also caused trade to slow down in this region.

Ioannis Meimaroglu, the Chairman of the Raw Material Suppliers Committee, said that scrap collection levels are currently lower than normal. In some places like Russia, this situation has been due to severe winter weather conditions, but generally is due to low market price levels, which are not attractive for local suppliers. Mr. Meimaroglu pointed out that there are new threats which may place pressure on scrap prices, such as freight rate increases and cost increases in some countries, and such as the recent energy cost increase in Turkey. “If such costs are not absorbed by the end product market, the consequences for scrap collection will be very important,” Mr. Meimaroglu warned. Scrap demand remains strong in Europe, in the US and Russia. Short sea scrap suppliers, especially from the Black Sea, expressed the view that it will be very difficult for them to increase their scrap collection volumes due to the price policy of the steel producers. As regards the coming two months, the
lack of container availability is expected to cause scrap supply problems to India and to the Far East in general.

Uğur Dalbeler, chairman of both IREPAS and the Billet Suppliers’ Committee, stated that, due to the situation regarding Iran, steel billet supplies which used to be sent to Iran are now being consumed domestically in the CIS region, where steel billet consumption has remained strong in recent years and is expected to remain strong in 2012. Mr. Dalbeler said that billet consumption in Turkey and the Gulf region has also been strong so far in 2012, and that the outlook for billet consumption in
these areas remains positive. On the other hand, he said that the market situation in North Africa and Syria remains difficult to predict. However, there are positive expectations for steel billet consumption in Iraq. Regarding the Americas, the central and southern American markets have also started importing steel billet and the prospects are bright for these regions. Dalbeler concluded by saying that supply and demand in the billet market are currently balanced.

Kim Marti Subirana, the Chairman of the IREPAS Rebar and Wire Rod Suppliers’ Committee, said that the long steel market has started to gain stability, after the low activity levels experienced in February due to the cold winter in the northern hemisphere, adding that market activity is expected to accelerate in the coming month in line with better weather and increased construction activity.

The European long steel market remained fairly quiet in Q1, according to Kim Marti, while activity is expected to show some improvement in northern Europe in Q2. However, the same cannot be said for southern Europe. The outlook appears very bright for the long steel market in the Persian Gulf region, thanks to the positive economic situation there. Meanwhile, the US seems to be emerging from the recession, Marti said, also remarking that the outlook is good for rebar and wire rod in Central and South America.

April 1st, 2012 Sunday

19:00 – 23:00   Welcome Cocktail at London Hilton on Park Lane

April 2nd, 2012 Monday

09:00 – 10:00 Registration

09:30 - 12:30  IREPAS Committee Meetings

09:30–11:15   Wire Rod & Rebar Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
09:30–11:15   Billet Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
09:30–12:30   Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
10:30–12:30   Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

11:30–12:30   Producers Committee (by invitation only)

12:30 – 14:00 Lunch Break

14:00 Welcome Address by IREPAS Chairman – Mr. Ugur Dalbeler

SteelOrbis Spring ’12 Conference

14:00 – 15:30 Session One

Keynote Speaker: Kim Marti Subirana, Celsa Group
• Global Market & Macro Economics                        

PANEL: Global Market Supply / Demand

Moderator: Murat Eryilmaz, SteelOrbis

• David Faktor, Stemcor UK Ltd
• Ahmed A Aziz S A Al-Ansari, Qatar Steel
• Kerim Dilber, Turkish Steel Exporters’ Association

15:30 – 16:15 Networking Break

16:15 – 17:30 Session Two

Keynote Speaker: Colin Hamilton, Macquarie
• Economic Outlook and Effects on Steel Industry                          

PANEL: Risks and Price Volatility at the Markets 

Moderator : Phill Price, Stemcor UK Ltd

• Phillip Killicoat, Credit Suisse
• Martin Evans, CME Group
• Jeff Kable, JP Morgan
• Michael T. Zeitler, BNP Paribas

19:00 Gala Dinner at the Plaisterers’ Hall

April 3rd, 2012 Tuesday

10:00 – 11:30 Session Three

Panel with IREPAS Committee Chairmen

• Raw Material Suppliers Committee Chairman: Ioannis Meimaroglou, Helveco Intertrade
• Billet Suppliers Committee Chairman: Ugur Dalbeler, Colakoglu Metalurji A.S.
• Rebar&Wire Rod Suppliers Committee Chairman: Kim Marti Subirana, Celsa Group
• Traders Committee Chairman: Michael Setterdahl, Nucor Trading S.A.
• Producers Committee Chairman: Ugur Dalbeler, Colakoglu Metalurji A.S.