Unfortunately, the coronavirus outbreak had a negative impact on our 82nd meeting in Belgrade. After the news about the coronavirus cases observed in Italy by late February, many participants due to attend the 82nd IREPAS meeting decided not to travel to Belgrade due to concerns about the developing situation. However, since the circumstances in Belgrade and Serbia did not require or allow any change or alteration of the originally planned event, it was decided that the conference would be held and go ahead as scheduled.

Obviously the major topic of discussions during the meeting was the coronavirus outbreak. The potential impact of the coronavirus on the markets was summarized as follows.

1. Demand in the global iron ore market will return after the initial dramatic slowdown.
2. It was heard that Chinese steel mills have huge unshipped stocks of steel following the outbreak and that Chinese exporters are expecting prices to fall.
3. The first offers of Chinese origin billets to the Mediterranean region have also been heard. Consequently, it is expected that China will return to the export markets.
4. The best-case scenario regarding the impact of the coronavirus is that the world loses business for two months, that the world loses confidence in itself, and most likely China will take a confidence hit of large proportions, while the worst scenario is that the steel industry will be hit like in 2009, as has the stock market just this past week.

On the other hand, the producers at the conference emphasized that currently there is almost zero margin between scrap and rebar and that demand is being affected by both political and economic circumstances and by the virus outbreak. Since margins are where they are, it would seem the market is at an equilibrium near the bottom, unless scrap and iron ore prices fall.

The raw material suppliers pointed out that, while manufacturing seems to be picking up in the western world, short-term pricing trends are pointing in a negative direction due to the current circumstances.

The scrap market is expected to continue to see a volatile period, the raw material suppliers noted. They added that uncertainties and protectionist measures have had impacts and will continue to play a role in pricing going forward.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Metropol Palace Hotel, Belgrade

Day 2: Monday, March 2, 2020

09:00 – 09:15                   Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:15 – 10:15                     SESSION ONE – Economic developments and expectations

Marko Cadez, Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Serbia / President
10:15 – 10:45                     Networking break

10:45 – 12:30                     SESSION TWO – Critical changes in global long steel markets

-    Long products market outlook

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

Alexander Gordienko, Celsa Group

-     Latest developments in the European steel market

• General macroeconomic outlook in the EU
• Overview of steel-using sectors (construction, automotive, mechanical engineering, electrical appliances)
• Trends in apparent steel consumption
• Trends in imports from third countries and main exporting countries to the EU

Alessandro Sciamarelli, European Steel Association (EUROFER) / Senior Economic Analysis Manager

-     Dry bulk market outlook and effects of the low sulphur regulation (IMO 2020)

• What happened in 2019?
  Recent trends
  IMO 2020
  What can we expect moving forward?

Enrico Paglia, Banchero Costa / Research Manager

12:30 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                  Cocktail Reception at Metropol Palace Hotel, Belgrade

Day 3: Tuesday, March 3,2020

09:30 – 11:00                   SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

Iran stands out as one of the non-WTO countries whose rebar exports to Turkey have increased lately. Towards the end of last year, Iran started to be seen as a threat to the Turkish rebar market. Other non-WTO countries are Iraq, Syria, Azerbaijan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Belarus, Algeria, Libya, Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia.

The import duty on rebar in Turkey was first decreased to ten percent from 30 percent in July 2017, and then completely removed as of January 1, 2018, before again being raised to ten percent at the beginning of the current year.