There were 99 representatives from 41 different producers among the 386 registered delegates from a total of 49 different countries. There were also 86 registrations representing 41 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Ioannis Manessis, chairman of IREPAS, said that two major conflicts – one in Ukraine and the other in Iran — have consequences for global trade in general and serious repercussions for the industry in particular. He said steel trade has been affected by both demand destruction and supply disruptions, as well as by elevated energy costs, higher freight rates and the practical difficulty of securing vessels on time to transport materials.

Mr Manessis added that protectionism continues to intensify at the same time. IREPAS chairman also said that real demand in the global long products sector remains subdued while geopolitical tensions have driven up freight, energy, and raw material costs. Combined with some degree of inventory replenishment, this has supported higher prices he concluded.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Tighter supply, geopolitics reshape global scrap market

Speaking at the panel session, Jens Björkman from Stena Metal International and also chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, shared the committee’s assessments of the current dynamics and difficulties in the global raw material markets. Mr. Björkman highlighted significant shifts in global market dynamics over the past year, pointing to tighter supply conditions, changing trade flows and increasing geopolitical influence on pricing and demand. One of the key developments has been the slowdown in Chinese steel output, with March production falling to the lowest monthly level in six years. This decline, linked to weaker margins and stricter controls, has supported sentiment in other regions, while iron ore prices have remained relatively firm at $105-110/mt due to supply-side constraints. India continues to stand out as a major growth market, supported by strong domestic sponge iron production. This has reduced its reliance on scrap imports, although the country could be an attractive destination, based on freight costs and pricing conditions.

The chairman of the raw material suppliers committee stated that, in Europe, safeguard measures and regulatory frameworks have reinforced protectionist dynamics, supporting intra-regional scrap demand. However, concerns persist over high energy costs and the risk of stagflation, which could weigh on longer-term demand. In the United States, stronger domestic steel production has boosted internal demand for raw materials. At the same time, the attractiveness of scrap exports has declined, particularly for high-quality grades, as supply increasingly shifts toward domestic consumption.

Mr. Björkman pointed out that Turkey has seen improved sentiment, supported by stronger steel production and demand. Reduced semis supply from Iran has increased reliance on scrap imports, pushing prices to around $410/mt, an annual high. Rising freight costs, driven by higher bunker fuel prices and disruptions of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, have further supported pricing.

Mr. Björkman emphasized that there is no global surplus of scrap supply, as scrap continues to be steadily consumed. Europe exports around 19-20 million mt annually, reflecting limited domestic demand growth, but future availability may tighten due to increasing EAF adoption and regulatory constraints. Traditional importers in the Middle East may face challenges as scrap availability tightens in Europe and the US. Meanwhile, he noted, growing scrap generation and processing capacity in Asia, particularly in China and India, could gradually reshape global trade flows.

Mr. Björkman said that increasing regulatory requirements, particularly EU waste shipment rules, are expected to drive investment in sorting and processing. At the same time, tighter credit conditions and reduced availability of trade finance are adding complexity to global scrap trade. He went on to say that, despite strong pricing and demand conditions, the market outlook remains uncertain. Energy prices, economic growth and geopolitical developments continue to pose risks, while elevated oil prices at around $110 per barrel are still considered manageable for now. However, in conclusion, he commented that any deterioration in demand or purchasing power could quickly shift the market into a more challenging phase.

Traders at IREPAS: Geopolitical tensions and higher costs disrupt steel trade flows

Speaking during the panel session, Wilhelm Alff, director at Duferco and chairman of the traders committee, shared the committee’s assessment of current market conditions, highlighting weakening demand, regulatory pressures and rising geopolitical risks. Mr. Alff reminded that crude steel production in China reached around 960 million mt in 2025, while data from the first quarter of 2026 indicate that output may decline further or at best remain stable, with no clear signs of growth. In China, the sharpest drop was observed in the rebar segment, in which production fell by 12 percent, reflecting the ongoing downturn in the construction sector. The only improvement in China was the growth of more than 10 percent in iron ore inventories, mainly due to strategic stock building, highlighting the disconnect between raw material positioning and weak end-user demand.

This weakness in demand is particularly evident in Europe, where the overall economic outlook remains poor. Public spending is increasingly being redirected toward defense and social support rather than infrastructure, especially in Germany, limiting the recovery potential for steel consumption. The committee also pointed out that existing production capacity in the EU continues to exceed demand, noting that even prolonged production stoppages by major producers have had little visible impact on the market. A key concern for traders remains the implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The committee chairman emphasized that, in the current environment, traders are advised to use default emission values when calculating CBAM costs in order to avoid risks, although this approach increases cost exposure. Uncertainty surrounding calculation methods and verification procedures continues to complicate transactions, making it essential to involve producers and clearly define contract terms.

In addition, recent changes to the EU safeguard system have added further pressure. Quotas have been reduced by nearly 50 percent, while out-of-quota duties may rise to as high as 50 percent. Market participants criticized the lack of adjustment in country-specific quotas, even where suppliers have not delivered material for extended periods. As a result, portions of the quota system remain effectively unusable, further tightening supply and negatively affecting buyers and end-users in the region. Against this backdrop, traders also highlighted the growing impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. According to Mr. Alff, escalating tensions have tightened raw material supply chains and pushed costs higher, significantly slowing trading activity. Mills are increasingly relying on short-term sourcing strategies and opportunistic cargoes, while additional costs for transporting billets overland from Omani ports are estimated at around $40/mt. Severe port congestion is further complicating trade flows, making execution increasingly difficult. Despite these disruptions, the committee believes that the current situation is still being treated as temporary rather than structural. However, logistical constraints, especially in key maritime routes, continue to limit cargo movements and add uncertainty to global trade.

Commenting on global trade flows, Mr. Alff noted that exporters are likely to face growing challenges in accessing traditional markets. Tightening EU quotas and rising protectionism are forcing suppliers to seek alternative destinations, though options are becoming increasingly limited as more countries introduce similar trade barriers. Africa is expected to remain a key growth market in the medium term, supported by rising imports from Asia, particularly China, although the expansion of local production capacity and potential protectionist measures could gradually slow this trend.

Regarding China, the committee expects semi-finished steel exports to remain at elevated levels but under tighter control, as the Chinese authorities are likely to manage trade flows more actively to avoid another sharp surge. While the ongoing crisis in the Gulf region could support demand for Chinese material, its impact will largely depend on logistical conditions and the ability to move cargoes efficiently.

Looking at other regions, market conditions in the US and Latin America were described as relatively stable, with the US benefiting from solid demand driven by public infrastructure projects.

Overall, the traders committee underlined that the global steel market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty, shaped by weak demand in key regions, regulatory changes and geopolitical risks. In such an environment, Alff concluded that it is extremely difficult to predict price trends, emphasizing that market participants will need to continuously monitor developments and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Producers at IREPAS: Global steel sector under pressure from costs and weak growth

Alex Gordienko, export director of Spain’s CELSA Group and representing the producers committee, stated, in sharing the producers committee’s findings, that the global steel industry is facing increasing pressure from rising costs, weak economic growth and regulatory complexity. He noted that uncertainty remains high, particularly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Mr. Gordienko indicated that raw material prices have risen significantly, while the ability to pass these costs on to customers remains limited. As a result, margins across the industry are under sustained pressure, with finished steel prices failing to fully reflect higher input costs.

Mr. Gordienko noted that economic growth remains subdued across many regions, limiting the potential for a meaningful recovery in steel demand. He warned that current conditions reflect a fragile balance, with demand holding but lacking strong momentum. He described energy markets as highly volatile, largely due to tensions in the Middle East, adding that there is no clear timeline for a resolution and that a prolonged conflict could significantly worsen market conditions.

Mr. Gordienko went on to state that trade policy remains a key theme, with the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at the center of discussions.

CBAM is seen as a mechanism that will gradually level carbon costs globally, encouraging countries such as Turkey, China and India to develop their own carbon pricing systems.

He said that, while CBAM is not expected to trigger immediate price changes, producers anticipate a medium-term disruption. By 2027, mills with verified emissions data are expected to gain a competitive advantage, as buyers increasingly prioritize suppliers able to provide reliable carbon data. Currently, only a limited number of suppliers, particularly in Japan and South Korea, are fully prepared for these requirements.

Meanwhile, the other restrictive factor, he pointed out, is that a new quota system stricter than the EU’s framework is expected to be introduced in the UK.

Mr. Gordienko commented that logistical challenges are adding further pressure, particularly in the Middle East, where port congestion is disrupting cargo flows. Limited truck availability and rising freight costs, driven by higher bunker fuel prices and fuel shortages, are increasing delivery costs for producers. He also stated that production disruptions in Iran have significantly affected global semis supply. Publicly available information indicates that facilities representing around 10 million mt of capacity have been heavily damaged, with recovery timelines ranging from six to 12 months. Iran exported approximately 3 million mt of semis in 2025, with around 75 percent directed to Asia. The disruption has contributed to increased Chinese semi-finished exports, particularly in March, as China moved to fill the supply gap. In the meantime, diesel shortages in Europe and transportation constraints are further amplifying cost pressures, with freight rates rising faster than oil prices.

On the raw materials side, Gordienko stated that availability remains a structural constraint. European producers, heavily reliant on scrap for electric arc furnace-based production, face limited flexibility in switching to alternative inputs such as HBI due to high energy requirements. This suggests limited short-term changes in production routes.

Lastly, he shared his prediction regarding the market outlook. Despite relatively stable demand and pricing conditions, the overall outlook remains uncertain. In conclusion, he said that energy prices, geopolitical developments and cost pressures continue to pose significant risks, leaving the global steel industry in a fragile and unpredictable environment.

There have been no signs of improvement in the global long steel products market. On the contrary, the current business environment has, unfortunately, deteriorated rather than improved in terms of the supply and demand balance. The wars, particularly in Iran and Ukraine, have significantly exacerbated existing disruptions across global supply chains. What we have seen looks more like a supply-side shock than a demand recovery: higher energy, electricity and freight costs have pushed prices upward, and these increases have so far been widely accepted by customers as inevitable.

Many economies would enter recessionary territory if ceasefire in Iran war fails to hold

So much will depend on whether the ceasefire just announced in the Iran war will hold. If it does not hold and should energy prices remain elevated, there would a substantial risk that many economies will enter recessionary territory, with wide-ranging and potentially severe consequences. Transportation costs have already risen considerably, while uncertainty surrounding future demand has increased across all major markets. At the same time, there is a noticeable shift toward greater protectionism, further complicating international trade dynamics.

US scrap export volumes decline, UK shifts to containerized scrap exports to Turkey

US ferrous scrap export volumes are in decline due to more domestic consumption and difficult prices in Asian markets, while the UK is shifting to containerized exports to Turkey.

On the bright side, increased pre-ordering and restocking activity observed

Despite the prevailing challenges, there are some positive aspects in the global market. Heightened uncertainty is prompting contractors involved in confirmed construction projects to secure supply in advance, leading to increased pre-ordering in order to mitigate the risk of further cost escalations. Additionally, in an inflationary environment, apparent demand often exceeds actual demand, as businesses tend to build up inventories as a precautionary measure. This dynamic is likely to result in a degree of restocking activity, providing short-term support to market demand.

Three distinct regional dynamics seen in competition in global market

Three distinct regional market dynamics can be identified in terms of the level of competition in the global market, which remains high, though it varies across regions. Broadly speaking, in the United States, competition is largely domestic, with local producers competing primarily within the internal market. In the European Union, the landscape is more mixed, characterized by intense domestic competition alongside a limited presence of imports from third countries. In contrast, in the rest of the world, competition is significantly more intense, with global players actively competing across multiple markets.

Rising costs of energy exerting pressure across the industry

At the same time, rising energy costs – particularly impacting steel producers – along with increasing scrap prices driven by higher oil and transportation costs, have exerted additional pressure across the industry. These factors are contributing to heightened competition globally, as producers strive to maintain margins and market share in an increasingly challenging cost environment. The market has accepted cost-driven price increases up to a certain degree. The uncertainty is in the second-order consequences. As with any supply-side shock, the market may have to rebuild around new supply routes, new energy costs and changing raw material availability, and it is still too early to judge how the wider economy will react. It will be necessary to wait and see what impact the ceasefire in the Iran war – provided it holds – will have on easing the surges in costs and if it will bring about a badly-needed return to something approaching normality for business and trade.

Current market environment very unstable, dependent on US war-related policy decisions

The current market environment can be best described as highly unstable and deeply influenced by geopolitical developments. In particular, the global economy has been increasingly dependent on policy decisions made by the United States administration in relation to the war against Iran, though some hope is now offered by the implementation of the ceasefire. Recent developments have intensified market volatility, with rising energy prices, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures creating a highly uncertain outlook.  In this context, market conditions remain fragile and unpredictable, with future stability largely contingent on geopolitical outcomes and policy direction in the coming months.

Outlook for next quarter remains uncertain

The outlook for the next quarter remains uncertain, primarily due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market direction will largely depend on how the situation evolves in the near term.

If the ceasefire holds…

Should the ceasefire hold, an improvement in demand can be expected, leading to a more positive outlook and gradual market stabilization. However, were the ceasefire to break down and war to be renewed, the risk of a significant economic slowdown will increase. In such a scenario, many economies could enter recessionary conditions, with potential project delays or cancellations and an overall challenging business environment. Other than the military-industrial complex, all other industrial sectors would be negatively affected.

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Demand remains weak in the global long steel products market, both structurally and seasonally. Buyers are cautious, operating on a hand-to-mouth basis and are still delaying medium- or long-term commitments. At the same time, supply pressure remains high. China has finally shown a significant production decline (with 2025 output down to 960 million mt, below one billion mt for the first time since 2019), but its exports surged to a record 119 million mt.

Geopolitics pull FX and commodity markets in different directions, causing uncertainty

Geopolitical tensions are clearly growing and are tearing the foreign exchange (FX) and commodity markets in different directions, increasing uncertainty for both mills and traders. This is feeding buyers’ wait-and-see stance on the demand side, while keeping input costs – especially scrap – more supported than finished steel products.

Demand still weak in EU, imports slowed down a lot by CBAM uncertainties

Demand in the EU market is still weak. Not only seasonal conditions but also uncertainties regarding political decisions are holding buyers back from making bigger commitments. Despite solid order books, construction companies are not flooding the market to avoid increases. The absolute uncertainty about quotas, CBAM, etc., has slowed down import volumes a lot. Only a few quotas were used up completely on January 1, which is proof of the fears of importers and traders.

US commercial construction expectations weaken for 2026

In the US, commercial construction expectations are down this year, with five of 17 market segments showing negative outlooks. Data centers (57 percent net positive) and power projects (34 percent net positive) remain strong. Although 63 percent of firms are planning new hires in 2026, over 80 percent are struggling to find qualified workers. Tariffs have affected 70 percent of contractors, and 63 percent report project delays or cancellations due to funding issues and rising costs. Top concerns for 2026 include the economic slowdown, workforce shortages, rising labor costs and material price volatility due to imports.

US residential construction segment also shows weakening, US mills in strong position

Residential construction in the US is not any better. Multi-family housing starts dropped 25.9 percent in October last year compared to September and were down 10.8 percent year on year, falling to their lowest level since 2020, according to the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Overall, housing starts in the US in October fell 4.6 percent from September and 7.8 percent from October 2024. Developers face challenges ranging from high inventory to high interest rates. Imports face tough competition with domestic products having a 50 percent duty advantage and with antidumping and countervailing duties on most commodities. Domestic mills are in the best position with high prices and practically no competition.

Seasonal supply tightness boosts scrap market, thereby providing support for longs market

The ferrous scrap market is strong mainly due to the seasonal supply tightness and provides some support for the long steel products market.

Competition at high levels but is not on a level playing field due to trade protectionism

There is high competition in the market. That said, with all the trade measures and tariffs, there is no fair competition anymore. It is just about searching for opportunities.

Market outlook slightly better but remains tough, some cautious optimism for 2026

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable. The outlook is slightly better due to seasonal reasons but remains tough. Despite all this and everchanging trade restrictions, we are still cautiously optimistic for 2026.

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Ms. Svyrydenko emphasized that scrap is a critical input for Ukraine’s metallurgical and foundry industries. Despite the export duty currently applied, scrap exports have continued to increase, often being shipped onward to third countries without generating added value for the Ukrainian economy. In contrast, domestic processing supports employment, generates tax revenues, and supplies materials essential for defense needs and post-war reconstruction. The use of scrap in steelmaking also helps reduce carbon emissions, a growing priority given the European Union’s climate-related requirements. According to the prime minister, maintaining restrictions on raw material exports strengthens domestic manufacturing, reduces environmental pressure, and enhances the energy security of local communities.

As we approach the holiday season, the general atmosphere in the global long steel products market is still cloudy. To sum up the market situation, demand is weak everywhere, with the approach of the holiday season exacerbating this situation, while costs are rising, China is producing a little less but is still exporting. The net effect is that the supply-demand balance has not improved, it has just shifted for different reasons. Decreases in consumption globally have put demand in a weak situation, with customers not yet observing any rises in consumption on the horizon which would give them hope for brighter market prospects.

EU market more cost-driven than before, scrap supply tighter

What has changed in the market is the cost structure. Scrap supply in Europe is tighter than usual, possibly in expectation of CBAM in 2026. Combined with higher electricity prices, this has pushed prices higher even though finished steel demand has not changed. So, the market is now even more cost-driven than last month.

New EU safeguard measures give brief boost, but demand shrinking in general

We have seen some price increases and a relative rise in demand in the EU due to the announcement of new safeguard measures. However, this improvement is temporary. Demand in the EU is shrinking in general despite promised infrastructure projects and a lack of apartments. The capacities of EU producers have increased over the past 12 months again, which increases the imbalance in the market. Despite the upcoming CBAM and tougher safeguard rulings, prices in the EU have been increasing only by very small margins due to low demand. No change is in sight.

China still exports at full speed, production cuts make little difference

On the supply side, China is finally showing real production cuts. In the first 10 months of the year, China’s crude steel output amounted to 817.87 million metric tons, down 3.9 percent year on year. This is the first meaningful drop in a while and should, in theory, take some pressure off the global balance. But as long as the tonnages they actually produce continue to flow abroad, the practical impact of the reduction in output is limited. In reality, China is still exporting at full speed because their domestic consumption is dropping even further. On the other hand, the export market is more attractive for the Chinese. Any changes in the rest of the world will have little impact on Chinese exports, as hopes fade of a stimulus by Beijing to boost domestic steel consumption.

Projects put on hold in US due to high interest rates

In the US, demand is still flat. Due to year-end taxes, most stockists are trying to reduce their inventories. Buying decisions are being pushed to 2026. Infrastructure investments are slow and due to high interest rates residential and commercial construction projects are put on hold, waiting for further interest rate cuts. Imports are reduced due to high duty and competition from domestic production.

Many countries still hoping to negotiate tariff exemptions with US

Many countries are trying to find a way to negotiate with the US to gain exemptions from tariffs, especially Mexico. The EU will probably also offer a new deal to the US once its new safeguard is in place. Any exemption will of course change the dynamics of the market.

Turkey’s scrap imports decline, sensitive to increases in scrap costs

Sudden increases in scrap prices will also cause production cuts in Turkey. Turkey’s scrap imports declined by 7.3 percent to 15.23 million mt in the first 10 months of 2025. The import volumes in the corresponding periods since 2020 varied in the range of 18-20 million mt.

Great uncertainty predominates in very unstable market situation

There are factors creating tremendous uncertainty in the global longs market, such as CBAM and the awaited ruling of the US Supreme Court on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, which make future planning extremely difficult. Meanwhile, competition in the market is intense but for low volumes. Under these circumstances, the current situation in the market can be described as very unstable.

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There were 123 representatives from 49 different producers among the 406 registered delegates from a total of 56 different countries. There were also 79 registrations representing 41 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that demand is still very weak in the global longs market and the situation remains difficult as mills are cutting back on production and protectionist measures are continuing full speed ahead, while China and other countries in Asia are exporting a lot, putting pressure on prices.

The IREPAS chairman added that there is very severe competition in the market, and every producer is fighting with its last penny in order to keep operating.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Global trade conditions are “devastating” due to uncertainty

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, said that, in the recent period, global trade conditions have been extremely difficult, describing the situation as “devastating” amid the current uncertainty. Pointing out that trade barriers and uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on the market, particularly with the US tariffs forcing some countries to find alternative destinations, he added that this shift has created pressure on other markets, including Turkey. Regarding the protectionism in the market, he stated that there are rumors that the EU will impose some duties on Asian materials due to the huge inflows of cheaper steel from the region. Meanwhile, noting that China, which is the main exporter of cheap steel, has signaled plans to reduce steel production and exports in 2025 and 2026, albeit the actual outcome remains uncertain, he said that, in the longer term, larger investments in EAF-based production are expected, supported by stable electricity supply and growing domestic scrap availability. China has also announced a cut of about 90 million metric tons in its steel production in 2025.

Highlighting that the planned green transition in the steel industry is increasingly being questioned, with many investments being cancelled and projects being delayed, Mr. Björkman stated that the EU’s move toward electric furnace-based production has now been postponed by at least three to four years. He underlined that, if carbon emission trading in Europe and the related pricing system are fully implemented, emission reduction technologies will need to be installed more widely. However, he said that, instead of hydrogen-based DRI, natural gas could be used in the short term. In addition, the raw materials committee chairman said EU waste shipment regulations treating scrap as waste will create more bureaucracy, especially for non-OECD countries needing formal approvals to buy European scrap, while OECD trade remains unaffected. Regarding the concerns over domestic scrap oversupply, he stated that Europe already faces excess supply overall, but certain grades like clean automotive scrap could face shortages. This imbalance, he explained, is why EU steel producers push to keep scrap within Europe.

Looking at Turkey, Björkman noted that the recent increase in freight costs has become a burden for suppliers, leading prices to increase slightly in Turkey, though how long this situation will last remains difficult to predict. Regarding the changes in Turkey’s inward processing regime, the committee chairman stated that Turkish mills, who are already struggling amid high costs, may become less competitive in the short term as scrap prices may increase slightly, leading the mills to reduce production.

Meanwhile, stating that raw material demand in the GCC market is expected to focus more on DRI/HBI, which remains limited in supply, he emphasized that larger volumes will be needed in Europe to support flat steel production and the green transition, though a mix of DRI/HBI and scrap is likely to be used.

Traders at IREPAS: Protectionist measures will continue for foreseeable future

F.D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, said that China’s exports have increased at a much higher pace than its production. He stated that there are no expectations for production cuts in China and that its domestic stock levels remain at normal levels. In response to questions on how China is reacting to trade barriers, he explained that Chinese producers have begun investing in production facilities in other regions, including Africa and South America.

Looking at Turkey, Mr. Baysal said that the high cost of energy remains a key challenge for Turkish mills. He noted that, in order to save energy and comply with CBAM regulations, Turkish producers have started investing in solar and renewable energy sources, which are expected to reduce production costs. Meanwhile, saying that there are no clear plans in the EU to ease green transition requirements, though delays remain a possibility, he commented that CBAM will eventually be enforced, but significant work is still needed to establish reference levels for both European and overseas mills. He added that, despite uncertainties, European producers are already moving from blast furnaces to EAFs and investing in renewable energy sources such as solar to balance costs and meet future carbon requirements.

Commenting on protectionist measures, the committee chairman stated that the Trump administration’s tariffs, reaching 75-100 percent in some cases, have nearly halted steel imports into the US, while Canada and Mexico have also imposed strong protective measures, leaving the North American market heavily restricted. Stating that he believes that protectionist measures will continue for the foreseeable future, Baysal said that further barriers against cheaper Asian steel are likely, but stressed that free trade remains the best option, though current trends are moving in the opposite direction.

Regarding prices, he highlighted that the current spread between rebar and scrap prices stands at around $200 or slightly less. He suggested that this points to a likely regression in scrap prices. He also compared production methods, stating that blast furnaces currently hold a cost advantage of about $25/mt over electric arc furnaces as the latter depend on electricity prices, though these are lower in countries like the US. On freight, Baysal noted that container freight rates have come down from post-Covid highs of around $4,000 to about $1,200, adding that he does not expect them to fall further.

Producers at IREPAS: Chinese exports and protectionism squeeze global steel industry

Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, said that, as demand is very limited, everybody is trying to protect what is theirs. “We can sell to the EU only once every three months because of the quota and it fills up as soon as the quota is opened. Because of China we cannot sell to many places. Chinese exports are hurting everyone,” he explained. The committee chairman pointed out that China is the main driver, exporting heavily at low prices, exerting pressure everywhere amid generally limited demand. Many countries are imposing protective measures not only on China but also on some other Asian countries, considering that the Chinese are quick to move their production elsewhere to avoid trade barriers.

Regarding Turkish mills’ capacity utilization rates, Mr. Cebecioglu pointed out that, under current market conditions, utilization rates are not at decent levels and, with protectionist measures still in place, Turkey has limited space to export, with only a few countries left, and competition is very tough in those countries. He also added that the countries to which Turkey used to export have become exporters themselves and this affects Turkish production in return. Turkey’s steel production capacity stands at around 60 million mt, but the country is currently producing just 38 million mt. In addition to trade measures, China is exporting heavily all around the world and, as it is difficult to give low prices to compete with the Chinese, in the end Turkish mills have to cut production, he remarked.

Commenting on China’s work plan for the steel industry in 2025-26, the IREPAS chairman underlined that the Chinese are always coming up with some kind of plan, but it is yet to be seen how much of it will be implemented and how they will proceed. This work plan, he noted, consists of many things; regulations, environmental constraints, shutting of inefficient mills, and technological upgrading for green steel and low carbon production. In the end, future competition will depend on being cleaner, he stressed. He also commented that, if this Chinese work plan goes through, it will mean that there will be export regulations, leaving room for Turkish mills to breath.

Talking about the mega projects in the GCC region, Cebecioglu said that demand is quite good in the region and GCC-based mills are also exporting to the EU and North African countries, where they are very competitive against the Turkish mills. As GCC mills have lower costs compared to Turkish mills, they have the upper hand in prices in terms of costs.

Day 1: Sunday, September 28, 2025

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Sofitel Munich Bayerpost

Day 2: Monday, September 29, 2025

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:30 – 11:10                  SESSION ONE – Critical changes in the global long steel markets and macroeconomic overview

- Long products market outlook

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group

- Global steel scrap markets in times of uncertainty

Frank Pothen, Professor of Economics, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena

 - Future chances and challenges in the economic environment of the global steel industry

Dr. Heinz-Jürgen Büchner, Independent Commodity Consultant

11:10 – 11:40 Networking break

 11:40 – 13:00 SESSION TWO – Global Steel Market Outlook 

- Indian and ASEAN steel and scrap market outlook 

Anastasiia Kononenko, Head of Asia Intelligence Team, SteelOrbis

- Chinese steel market outlook

Jiang Li, Chief Analyst, Baosteel

- African steel market outlook (20+5)

Ramy Saleh, Chief Business Development, Export, Marketing and Sustainability Officer, El Marakby Steel

13:00 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, September 30, 2025

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

Demand is very weak and the situation remains difficult in the global long steel products market. Mills are cutting production, protectionist measures are continuing full speed ahead, while China and other countries in the region are exporting a lot, putting pressure on prices. There is very severe competition in the market and every producer is fighting with its last penny in order to keep operating. Imports displaced by US tariffs are searching for homes, causing worldwide disruptions and any demand is contested by multiple origins.

Demand may show some improvement after the holiday season

The holiday season is over and we may observe relatively better demand in the coming months. For the last few weeks, a small price increase has been seen in Chinese domestic market, which has had a positive impact but further developments in China need to be observed. Anticipated interest rate cuts may also create a positive atmosphere in the global longs market. The price of scrap has moved sideways and the main problem is that mills are operating with no profits due to low capacity-utilization, which creates real damage for the future.

Imports still flood into Europe, summer production halts may support market balance

Imports continue to flood into Europe and demand there is weak. However, with European mills cutting production over the summer there is at least a chance of some balance returning to the market in the fourth quarter of the year. Whether this leads to a real turnaround remains to be seen. German domestic prices dropped substantially from June to August but now mills are trying to push prices back up again and recover some lost ground. Activity is still very slow, but the expectation is that September will be a better month.

Court appeals against Trump’s tariffs create further uncertainty

US President Trump has now had five of his tariff rulings challenged by courts of appeals. This will throw the market into uncertainty, more than before. It may take at least six months to have the appeals go through the court system all the way to the Supreme Court.

Domestic supply meets most demand in US longs market, prices soften a little

In the US, demand is very soft. With little to no imports, domestic supply seems to be meeting demand, which is why prices have not moved up even with the 50 percent duty on imports. On the contrary, most prices are moving down a little each week. Capacity utilization is still under 80 percent despite six months of “tariff protection”. More capacity is coming online, which means that the capacity utilization percentage will probably move down further. The market seems to be waiting for interest rate cuts. If the cut is just 0.25 percent, it will not be enough to stimulate the economy. Most stockists expect a reduction or a change in import duties, which is why they prefer to wait, instead of importing now in order to restock.

Current market is unstable and unpredictable, with an unsatisfactory outlook

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable. Prices are within long-term trends, but market fundamentals and economic policies are unpredictable. The outlook of the market for the next quarter is also unstable and unsatisfactory, with weak demand and policy uncertainty pointing to continued weakness of the market.

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According to the MACC, illegal scrap exports have resulted in tax revenue losses of more than MYR 950 million ($224,33 million) over the past six years, undermining national fiscal stability and eroding market confidence. Emphasizing that scrap metal is essential for low-carbon steel production, MSA stated that the illegal outflow of this vital resource creates multiple risks for the domestic market including raw material shortages for steelmakers, increased input costs, reduced competitiveness, disrupted production volumes, and a negative impact on sustainable steel goals.

The global long steel products market is oversupplied and overcrowded. The situation has worsened and is now structural. The competition in the global market is predatory.  Margins are dead. The only strategy is cashflow and turnover. Whoever can ship first, wins. Whoever negotiates for $5/mt more, loses the order. Every confirmed business is a major success. Moreover, without the US market, competition may become brutal.

Latest US blanket 50 percent Section 232 duty marks unprecedented shift

The latest US decision to impose a blanket 50 percent Section 232 duty on all steel imports marks an unprecedented shift – one that severely impacts importers while handing a windfall to domestic producers. Although there was previously a similar measure targeting imports from Turkey, this universal application is unparalleled. What makes this especially jarring is its immediate enforcement, affecting cargoes due to arrive soon, offering no transition period or due process. This abruptness feels inconsistent with the values and principles we have long associated with the US marketplace – predictability, fairness, and rule of law.

New US decision cuts its market off from rest of world, importers handed long vacation

If the 50 percent Section 232 duty holds, it may ironically render the US the most expensive steel market globally, shutting it off from the world at a time when collaboration and balance are most needed. It seems importers in the US have been handed a long, scorching summer of vacation, just as they brace to absorb the financial fallout of all US-bound cargoes. These are extraordinary times and must be navigated with clarity, unity, and resolve.

Demand still weak in Europe and Turkey, with imports putting pressure on prices

Demand is still soft in the European market and imports are putting a ceiling on any potential price increases. Unless there is an actual pickup in end-user consumption, prices will hover at current levels or drop, especially if more cheap Asian billet flows in. Demand in Turkey is still lacking also, but more important is that, with the current iron ore and coal prices, there will be more supply pressure from Far Eastern and Southeast Asian suppliers. Far Eastern and Southeast Asian origin steel billet prices are going down almost every day.

Scrap-based producers falling behind in terms of costs

Scrap-based producers are getting priced out. Billet from Asia is cheaper than melting scrap. There is almost no point in running a melt-shop when you can just roll. This shift reshuffles power, as cheap billet exporters win and EAF-based mills are now considered high-cost producers.

Chinese long steel exporters start to push out Southeast Asians

Southeast Asian mills, who had dominated the market, are now being quietly pushed out by China. Chinese long product exports surged by over 100 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2025. Reduced blast furnace costs, falling domestic demand, and export subsidies mean this wave of Chinese exports will not slow as it is policy-driven, not market-driven. A serious displacement is taking place. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia are all fighting for markets. Even South Korean mills, who were deemed to be bulletproof previously, are now closing lines for the first time in decades. China is stable, but prices are not going up and their steel is cheap, hoping for new export markets. Oil prices are also weak which is good for some players in the steel market, terrible for others.

Market currently very unstable, outlook unsatisfactory, seems to depend on political decisions

The market is currently very unstable. No one is making money. Everyone is quoting, but very few are actually booking orders. The outlook is unsatisfactory and seems to depend on political decisions.

OECD: Some brighter prospects in ASEAN and MENA regions

The recently published OECD Steel Outlook 2025 states, “Demand in the OECD area will remain roughly constant, while Chinese demand will decline appreciably due to the downturn in construction and structural shifts in China’s economy. Prospects are brighter in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) areas, where demand will grow strongly.”

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