Weighted-average dumping margins likely to prevail if the orders were revoked are up to

• 60.40 percent for Argentina,
• 86.09 percent for Colombia,
• 29.72 percent for Egypt,
• 72.28 percent for Indonesia,
• 19.26 percent for Italy,
• 26.95 percent for Malaysia,
• 30.86 percent for the Netherlands,
• 194.40 percent for Saudi Arabia,
• 155.10 percent for South Africa,
• 14.75 percent for Spain,
• 23.89 percent for Taiwan,
• 30.58 percent for Tunisia,
• 53.65 percent for Türkiye,
• 19.30 percent for Ukraine,
• 170.65 percent for the UAE

The AD orders were originally issued on February 1, 2021, for Argentina, Colombia, Egypt, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Türkiye, and the UAE, and on June 4, 2021, for Indonesia, Italy, Malaysia, South Africa, Spain, Tunisia, and Ukraine. The sunset reviews were initiated on January 2, 2026, and the final results were published on May 4, 2026.

The global long steel products market is slowing down in general, which is putting pressure on producers. Demand for reinforcing bars and wire rods remains very weak and there is strong pressure on prices from the new exporters – Algeria, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia – who are in the market with very aggressive offers.

Business still stagnant in US, high interest rates a major factor 

Business in the US is still stagnant. Demand has slowed down and supply is the same, putting pressure on prices. High interest rates constitute the biggest factor in the slowdown of both commercial and residential construction. The US Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep inflation under control are working, while slowing down the economy. Flat steel prices are still under pressure, with flats mainly supplied from domestic sources.

Non-traditional sources active in exports, Turkey struggles due to trade measures 

Exports are only active from non-traditional sources like Algeria and Egypt, which are subject to no antidumping or countervailing duty measures so far. Turkey has been unfairly hit with high antidumping duty, when one mill honored a contract made before the Ukrainian war and delivered as pledged, even after the surge in prices. All Turkish mills (except one) were conveniently painted with the same brush.

New US and EU measures target Russian exports of semis and raw materials 

It seems that the situation in Ukraine will be a never-ending story. However, the new restrictions to be introduced by the US and the EU will create more complications for producers who import Russian semis and raw materials and export their goods to the US and the EU, namely, Turkey and Egypt. The EU is already demanding a declaration from producers confirming no Russian input for goods that are shipped into the EU. US officials are paying visits to individual companies explaining the risks of not cutting ties with Russia. We will witness more circumvention cases in the coming period. The halting of Russian steel imports in six weeks’ time into the EU should have a significant impact. It is difficult to prevail in defensive cases, which may cause Turkey to strongly reduce imports from Russia.

US and EU to produce less steel in 2023 than in 2022 

Both the US and the EU will produce less steel in 2023 than in 2022.  In the US, flat product output is down five percent year to date, while domestic long product output is down even more.

Europe very quiet due to holidays, private sector investors lack confidence 

Europe has been very quiet over the last few weeks due to the holidays. Prices are very flat and there are no signs of improvement in sight. The main reason is low activity and low ordering from the market. Mills are fighting for every ton which is available. Overcapacities in the EU are preventing mills from raising prices. Imports are practically non-existent right now as one can see from the safeguard import statistics. All EU countries are trying to avoid a recession by injecting money into the economy, but the private sector is afraid due to all the uncertainties surrounding energy prices, interest rates and additional burdens which may come from Brussels in relation to CO2 emissions. All these uncertainties are holding the private sector back from investing.

Strong domestic construction in Russia restrains its exports 

Russia is experiencing strong growth in its domestic construction sector and so it is not so hungry for exports.

Stimulus packages in China have no impact on its exports 

So far, all stimulus packages introduced in China have had no impact on exports that affects global steel prices. China’s BOFs are working at over 90 percent capacity utilization and EAFs at under 50 percent.

Scrap demand falls amid reduced steel outputs, scrap prices hold firm 

Slowing production has also led to lower ferrous scrap demand. European demand is expected to contract in the coming quarter. Although demand is slowing down for scrap also, inflows are dropping for scrap traders. Availability is low and this is exerting pressure on recyclers to get material to their yards and shredders. Scrap prices are still holding firm, mainly because suppliers are much more organized. They may stay around the mid-$300s/mt unless demand for reinforcing bar falls further. India seems to have a weak domestic market, but, on the other hand, it is paying top bucks for scrap, which supports scrap at the mid-$300s/mt.

Some new projects in Europe, Turkey and S. Arabia to provide support 

There are a number of projects coming on stream in Europe and Turkey. There is also the NEOM city project in Saudi Arabia, with demand for a huge quantity of reinforcing bars which is supposed to come on stream shortly.

Freight costs lower but still higher than before pandemic, clean energy an issue for steel sector 

Raw material prices are softening a little and shipping prices are coming down but are still higher than pre-pandemic prices. New policies on carbon emission limitations and clean energy will be a problem for the steel industry in the future. Ironically, a lot of Chinese “clean” energy technology is made in factories using coal-powered electricity. Clean energy technology should come from clean supply chains, though cheap Chinese inputs such as polysilicon for solar panels and critical minerals for batteries are often made or extracted by cheap labor in other parts of the world.

US still a locomotive of the global economy 

The US economy and US industrial orders are still the locomotive of the global economy. Electricity prices have also lessened since last year’s fluctuations. Inflation no longer seems a threat and in general autumn is expected to be better than the first seven months of 2023.

International competition weak amid low prices and high logistics costs 

International competition in the market is weak because prices are so low that logistics are killing trade. There is almost no international competition. Otherwise, the competition is for volumes, not to increase them or simply to keep them stable, but rather to limit the slide in volumes as much as possible. Imports are dropping in North America and the EU, which of course affects the MENA region and Latin America.

Current market status unstable, outlook unsatisfactory except for scrap suppliers 

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable and unpredictable. The outlook for the next quarter is mostly unstable and unsatisfactory, except for ferrous scrap suppliers.

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At the opening of the conference Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that IREPAS firmly believes in, has supported and will always continue to support free and fair trade in steel but is very concerned by the recent developments triggered by the unilateral US tariffs, which are unjustified and against the World Trade Organisation rules and principles.

The IREPAS chairman stated that, in spite of all such protectionist measures, the global long steel products market is currently in a positive mood amid good demand worldwide. He added that, had there not been protectionist actions like the additional tariffs, quotas or safeguard measures, the global business scenario would certainly be much better. Mr.Cebecioglu said that protectionism is like a virus, expanding and hurting the international trade environment.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw material suppliers at IREPAS : Two major events have impacted the market

Jens Björkman, chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, said that, since the previous IREPAS meeting held in September 2018 in Istanbul, two major events have impacted the raw materials market. The first of these events was the significant reduction in production by Turkish steel producers – the leading buyers of scrap in the world – and the corresponding reduction in their demand for scrap. Turkish mills’ scrap demand has stabilized somewhat since then but it still remains at low levels, a fact which scrap suppliers will have to get used to. Mr. Björkman said that most of the raw materials committee members believe that they will continue to see reductions in Turkish demand for scrap due to poor domestic market conditions in Turkey.

According to the committee chairman, the second major event that influenced the raw materials market was the iron ore waste dam collapse in Brazil, which has had a strong influence on iron ore prices. He added that iron ore prices increased by 20 percent within a short time and that prices have continued to move upwards. Mr. Björkman also touched upon some other factors affecting the raw materials market, namely, the low water levels on the Rhine which had made logistics extremely difficult and costly, leading to a slowdown in the accumulation of scrap at ports for export. He stated that the slowing down of the EU automotive sector in the last six months led to the lower availability of prime scrap for export.

The committee chairman said that there has been some buildup of scrap demand in areas such as Southeast Asia, South America and North Africa, which is balancing the reduced demand from Turkey though not entirely. Answering a question about the influence of the Section 232 tariffs on US scrap exports, Mr. Björkman said that in the past few months there have been some reductions in US scrap exports, partly because of lower import needs from Turkey and partly due to stronger demand in the US domestic market, adding that US domestic scrap demand is driving down the availability of scrap for exports.

Regarding steel production in the EU, he pointed out that it has declined somewhat in the first few months of the current year, while both demand for scrap in the EU and intra-EU trade have been active and strong.

Commenting on the financing of the scrap trade, Mr. Björkman said that, right after the currency crisis in Turkey, availability of letters of credit was tight in the country and financing costs for Turkish mills increased substantially, with the currency fluctuations making these issues much more challenging.

Traders at IREPAS: Safeguard measures have a major impact on trade

Representing the IREPAS traders committee, F.D. Baysal said that safeguard measures are having a major impact on steel trade. Referring to a question by his fellow traders, Mr Baysal commented on Turkey’s alternative markets and said that Africa will by no means replace the US and the EU as a destination for Turkish exports. Mr. Baysal said there are not a lot of places the extra supply in Turkey could go to and the only solution is reducing capacity utilization.

Answering a question regarding the potential for Iran’s billet exports, Mr. Baysal said that Iran is not likely to produce steel any cheaper than Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Algeria, while sanctions make it almost impossible to buy Iranian steel.

Mr. Baysal also stated that, while the Chinese government is taking serious measures and reducing production, Chinese suppliers will definitely not be absent from the global market but, as they are more contented in their domestic market, they will be less destructive in terms of pricing in the export markets. He added that the cut in VAT in China will help stimulate the economy.

Producers at IREPAS:  Importers have become exporters and vice versa

Mr Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS and also of the IREPAS producers committee, said that GDP is growing in most countries worldwide although growth is slower than expected in some markets. Nevertheless, he added that things are getting better, which signals good demand. The IREPAS chairman said that protectionist measures are spreading like a virus throughout the world, changing trade flows.

He pointed out that importers have become exporters and vice versa. Mr. Cebecioglu stated that US President Trump totally destroyed the markets with tariffs and that others are following suit, starting a chain effect, increasing customers’ costs and ultimately causing economies to slow down.

Answering a question about the troubled Turkish exports, Mr. Cebecioglu said that the main export markets for Turkey have become Yemen and Israel, with the US and Canada being out of reach. However, the committee chairman reiterated that the Turkish steel industry has gone through difficult times before and will get through this one as well.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said he believed the outlook for the next quarter is very good as long as there is no surprise from China, despite the last quarter of the year always being very challenging. Mr. Cebecioglu added that the solid supply-demand balance combined with low inventories have given everyone reason to believe that the strength of price levels will be sustained up to Christmas.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products and steel billets, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers: Solid increase in scrap demand so far in 2017

Jens Björkman, chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, stated that during 2017 global steel production has shown continued strength, resulting in a solid increase in scrap demand. He added that increased Chinese domestic consumption has helped to reduce steel exports coming from China, contributing to a strong global steel market for most of this year.

Mr. Björkman said that one of the major changes in the market is that China which had long been a net scrap importer started to export scrap despite the 40 percent export duty and became a net exporter as induction furnaces halted production as part of structural reforms in China.

The raw materials committee chairman indicated that the current situation seems very encouraging for the rest of the year for the scrap market, considering that Turkey, a major scrap consumer, has increased its steel production to above 3 million metric tons per month lately. He went on to say that, with the reduction of steel exports from China, EU-based producers have been doing well for the past nine months.

Commenting on scrap pricing in the EU, Mr. Björkman said that the recent build up of scrap supply has put pressure on pricing for the short term, while domestic prices of obsolete scrap in the EU, especially in Germany, are at record high levels. He added that the market will likely see high prices for prime scrap.

Regarding the electrode shortage, Björkman stated that, given the induction furnace closures in China, it will be an interesting year to see how this affects the electric arc furnace-based steel markets.

Traders: Section 232 is a major concern

Michael Setterdahl, representing the traders committee, said that the main concern of the traders is the ongoing Section 232 investigation in the US, though adding that US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has recently announced that the results of the investigation have been delayed until after the planned tax reform.

Commenting on the recent antidumping duties on Turkish rebar, Mr. Setterdahl said that most traders believe that nothing can really replace Turkish suppliers, since they are one of only two markets that can ship 50,000 metric tons of rebar within two months, the other being China.

The traders committee chairman stressed that there is a rebar surplus of one million metric tons in the EU market and this is because of reduced rebar imports from Algeria which used to import 2 million mt of rebar per year. Regarding the increased demand in the Chinese domestic market, he said that this gave Turkish suppliers the opportunity to ship to Southeast Asia.

Mr. Setterdahl also pointed out that the market should be vigilant about the absolute numbers regarding the decreases in China’s imports or exports, rather than about the percentages. He also said that traders are also concerned about China reentering the billet market, adding that the question is when China will resume billet exports, not if it will.

Steel Producers: Market is in much better shape thanks to improved demand

Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS and also of the producers committee, said that the global market is in much better shape than in 2016 thanks to improving demand and decreasing pressure from China. He stated that the general sentiment in the market is very positive, with the supply-demand balance helping the steel market to do much better business.

Mr. Cebecioglu pointed out that, amid China’s absence from the export market, Turkish producers were able to ship to the Far East. He also commented on the GCC region, indicating that the export ban in Saudi Arabia has been lifted and so there is a new player in the market.

The committee chairman said that producers do not expect steel prices to go down further; they may soften a little but they are unlikely to decrease much. Although scrap prices are down, he said that this will be offset by the increased cost of electrodes, and so there will be no change in producers’ cost structure. Mr. Cebecioglu said he believes that the electrode shortage is not a short-term problem. He expects it to continue into the first half of 2019. He also warned that if it continues into 2019 it may affect steel production as well.

Commenting on the Section 232 investigation, Cebecioglu said that, even though the results have been delayed until after the planned tax reform, there is still a deadline – the report has to be presented to President Trump and then he will have to approve it within 90 days.

The supply-demand balance in the global long steel products market has been worsening over the last few weeks. Protective actions such as antidumping and countervailing duty (CVD) cases and import taxes, coupled with increasing capacities in some traditional import markets, have put export-dependent countries in a difficult situation.

Protective actions raise levels of uncertainty in US market

The market situation has definitely become worse in the US. There was an unexpected countervailing duty announcement on reinforcing bar imports. On top of that, there is now the unknown threat from the Section 232 investigation hanging over market players’ heads as regards the making of any import decisions. Section 232 obviously delayed the final decisions in the antidumping and countervailing duty cases. Nevertheless, demand seems to be flat in the US.

Section 232 may be another shock wave for US market

Market players expect measures to be passed under Section 232 and that this will constitute another shock wave like the exit from the Paris environmental agreement. This possesses the potential to turn things quickly upside down and make the market unpredictable for everyone. Turkey, of course, will be in a very difficult situation, losing one of its biggest markets after it has already lost market shares in the Middle East.

Weak prospects for upward price movement in EU long steel products market

Demand is not great in some southern and eastern EU countries. As Algeria is dormant on imports with no import licenses released yet and with Algerian domestic producers trying to protect their own turf and meet all domestic requirements themselves, it seems that long product prices in the EU do not have any chance of moving up with the exception of being cost-driven on the back of scrap prices. The future may bring along tougher conditions for the European market depending on the outcome of the antidumping and countervailing investigation on wire rod imports to the US and on the US DOC’s Section 232 investigation.

Still too much existing capacity in China

On the other hand, the volatility in China is not even as attractive as it used to be. There is still too much existing capacity, and, if demand for long products in China slows down even only a little bit, it would provide so much extra capacity to the world markets that the previous imbalance will instantly be restored.

Demand poor but stable in Latin America

Elsewhere, demand is very poor but stable in Latin America. There is no sign of a change in this region in the short or medium term. Excess capacity remains an issue and continues to put pressure on local price dynamics. Political uncertainties in Brazil have delayed any recovery of the local market. Unfortunately, it looks like 2017 will be another lost year for the Brazilian market.

Domestic prices allow little room for imports in GCC and Southeast Asia

In the GCC and Southeast Asian markets, market prices do not allow imports to play any significant role.

New crisis in GCC region will probably be resolved quickly

The new political crisis in the GCC region has added to the uncertainty in the global market. It can be expected that reinforcing bar exports from Qatar to Saudi Arabia will stop as well as shipments of billets from Qatar to the UAE for re-rolling into wire rods as the shipments pass through Saudi Arabia. Having said that, the crisis will probably be resolved quickly as it is bad for the region as a whole.

Scrap prices remain stable with support from demand side

On the raw materials side, prices of iron ore and coking coal are both down, whereas ferrous scrap prices are relatively stable. Market participants think that ferrous scrap prices should decrease, but this is not happening. Ferrous scrap demand in Europe and the US remained solid during the spring and this is also expected to be the case in the coming month as demand from steel mills is strong. Turkish steel mills are enjoying a stronger domestic market after the April referendum and so they have raised their steel outputs, which means their demand for scrap is greater.

How long will China continue to export scrap?

One issue causing uncertainty in the scrap sector is the question of how much and how long Chinese scrap will be exported to surrounding regions instead of being consumed in the Chinese domestic market. China continues to export scrap, albeit in relatively small tonnages.

Global long steel market generally boosted by improved demand

Apart from all the above, the long steel markets have shown improved demand and reasonable supply levels, although some points of distress have been observed in Mediterranean countries which depend on exports, due to import restrictions at destinations.

Improved demand in Russia has also been a factor, contributing to the general improvement of sentiment. Stocks are, in general, low in the supply chain and buying activity has shown a good consistency.

Better demand also seen in Turkey and some EU countries

Demand has been increasing in the Turkish domestic market after the referendum in April. There are also signs of improvement in some European countries. Some EU countries have been seeing very good demand, which is expected to be stable for the coming years due to infrastructure investments.

Positive margins for producers amid good demand and reasonable prices

Demand is still good and prices are reasonable on both ends, resulting in positive margins for steel producers, so that after two to three years steel mills can start publishing the positive earnings which are essential for the future of the industry.

EU and US mills operating at decent to strong capacity usage rates

International prices seem to have found a floor, which brings more stability. European and US steel mills are running at decent to strong production figures. The US mills are now operating at around 75 percent capacity utilization.

Chinese influence on export markets remains limited

The Chinese influence in the export markets has also decreased as they are not putting pressure on the international reinforcing bar markets, which is always good for the supply-demand balance in the global long products market.

Turkish mills’ domestic focus removes some competitive pressure from export markets

Competition is still high in the international market, but the fact that Turkish mills are now focused mainly on their domestic market has taken some of the competitive pressure out of the overseas markets.

Turkish discusses lowering of rebar import tariffs

Interestingly, contrary to the rest of the world where protectionism is becoming ever more widespread, Turkey has been discussing the lowering of tariffs on imports of reinforcing bars.

Despite uncertainties, general stability prevails in global market

Despite all the uncertainties, the current status of the market can be described as generally stable although there are some fluctuations here and there.

Outlook remains positive but many unknown factors make predictions difficult

The outlook for the next quarter seems to be positive, balanced and satisfactory, but at the same time there are so many unknown factors, which makes it hard to forecast the future. The market is more difficult to judge now than at any other time this year. Factors like the Section 232 case and the lack of licences in Algeria are contributing to placing even more pressure on the market.

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According to Reuters, among the conditions that firms in both the cement and steel sectors will have to meet in order to export goods is payment of the difference in energy costs between the local and international market. Reuters quoted Mohammed Alomran, a member of the Saudi Economic Association, as stating that the companies which will likely benefit from the reported lift of the export ban are those close to the sea as sea transportation is cheaper.