The global long steel products market is slowing down in general, which is putting pressure on producers. Demand for reinforcing bars and wire rods remains very weak and there is strong pressure on prices from the new exporters – Algeria, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia – who are in the market with very aggressive offers.

Business still stagnant in US, high interest rates a major factor 

Business in the US is still stagnant. Demand has slowed down and supply is the same, putting pressure on prices. High interest rates constitute the biggest factor in the slowdown of both commercial and residential construction. The US Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep inflation under control are working, while slowing down the economy. Flat steel prices are still under pressure, with flats mainly supplied from domestic sources.

Non-traditional sources active in exports, Turkey struggles due to trade measures 

Exports are only active from non-traditional sources like Algeria and Egypt, which are subject to no antidumping or countervailing duty measures so far. Turkey has been unfairly hit with high antidumping duty, when one mill honored a contract made before the Ukrainian war and delivered as pledged, even after the surge in prices. All Turkish mills (except one) were conveniently painted with the same brush.

New US and EU measures target Russian exports of semis and raw materials 

It seems that the situation in Ukraine will be a never-ending story. However, the new restrictions to be introduced by the US and the EU will create more complications for producers who import Russian semis and raw materials and export their goods to the US and the EU, namely, Turkey and Egypt. The EU is already demanding a declaration from producers confirming no Russian input for goods that are shipped into the EU. US officials are paying visits to individual companies explaining the risks of not cutting ties with Russia. We will witness more circumvention cases in the coming period. The halting of Russian steel imports in six weeks’ time into the EU should have a significant impact. It is difficult to prevail in defensive cases, which may cause Turkey to strongly reduce imports from Russia.

US and EU to produce less steel in 2023 than in 2022 

Both the US and the EU will produce less steel in 2023 than in 2022.  In the US, flat product output is down five percent year to date, while domestic long product output is down even more.

Europe very quiet due to holidays, private sector investors lack confidence 

Europe has been very quiet over the last few weeks due to the holidays. Prices are very flat and there are no signs of improvement in sight. The main reason is low activity and low ordering from the market. Mills are fighting for every ton which is available. Overcapacities in the EU are preventing mills from raising prices. Imports are practically non-existent right now as one can see from the safeguard import statistics. All EU countries are trying to avoid a recession by injecting money into the economy, but the private sector is afraid due to all the uncertainties surrounding energy prices, interest rates and additional burdens which may come from Brussels in relation to CO2 emissions. All these uncertainties are holding the private sector back from investing.

Strong domestic construction in Russia restrains its exports 

Russia is experiencing strong growth in its domestic construction sector and so it is not so hungry for exports.

Stimulus packages in China have no impact on its exports 

So far, all stimulus packages introduced in China have had no impact on exports that affects global steel prices. China’s BOFs are working at over 90 percent capacity utilization and EAFs at under 50 percent.

Scrap demand falls amid reduced steel outputs, scrap prices hold firm 

Slowing production has also led to lower ferrous scrap demand. European demand is expected to contract in the coming quarter. Although demand is slowing down for scrap also, inflows are dropping for scrap traders. Availability is low and this is exerting pressure on recyclers to get material to their yards and shredders. Scrap prices are still holding firm, mainly because suppliers are much more organized. They may stay around the mid-$300s/mt unless demand for reinforcing bar falls further. India seems to have a weak domestic market, but, on the other hand, it is paying top bucks for scrap, which supports scrap at the mid-$300s/mt.

Some new projects in Europe, Turkey and S. Arabia to provide support 

There are a number of projects coming on stream in Europe and Turkey. There is also the NEOM city project in Saudi Arabia, with demand for a huge quantity of reinforcing bars which is supposed to come on stream shortly.

Freight costs lower but still higher than before pandemic, clean energy an issue for steel sector 

Raw material prices are softening a little and shipping prices are coming down but are still higher than pre-pandemic prices. New policies on carbon emission limitations and clean energy will be a problem for the steel industry in the future. Ironically, a lot of Chinese “clean” energy technology is made in factories using coal-powered electricity. Clean energy technology should come from clean supply chains, though cheap Chinese inputs such as polysilicon for solar panels and critical minerals for batteries are often made or extracted by cheap labor in other parts of the world.

US still a locomotive of the global economy 

The US economy and US industrial orders are still the locomotive of the global economy. Electricity prices have also lessened since last year’s fluctuations. Inflation no longer seems a threat and in general autumn is expected to be better than the first seven months of 2023.

International competition weak amid low prices and high logistics costs 

International competition in the market is weak because prices are so low that logistics are killing trade. There is almost no international competition. Otherwise, the competition is for volumes, not to increase them or simply to keep them stable, but rather to limit the slide in volumes as much as possible. Imports are dropping in North America and the EU, which of course affects the MENA region and Latin America.

Current market status unstable, outlook unsatisfactory except for scrap suppliers 

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable and unpredictable. The outlook for the next quarter is mostly unstable and unsatisfactory, except for ferrous scrap suppliers.

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The war in Ukraine has changed sentiment in the global long steel products market as well as fundamentally altering the flow of raw materials and finished products almost overnight. There is more demand than secure supply in the market. Before the war, the expectations were that demand would determine the direction of prices, contrary to 2021 when supply was the driving factor. Today, however, supply has definitely taken the lead again and the market is in fact distorted.

Sanctions on Russia to continue for some time to come

Hot rolled coil prices ex-China are lower than slab prices, which in turn are lower than prices of basic pig iron. We hear of a new set of sanctions every day, for different targets using different means, issued by different countries, besides which the payment side is totally confused. There are many different ways of approaching the sanctions. Disruptions of supplies of semi-finished and finished products have opened new opportunities for others, especially for Turkish mills who share the same geographical region. However, nobody has any clue how far this madness will go, but one thing is for sure: the sanctions on Russia will remain in place for some time to come.

Price imbalance emerges between Asia and rest of world, European prices the highest

The Western hemisphere has stable demand with short supply depending on the product. There is stable demand also in the Eastern hemisphere, but the strong presence of Chinese and Southeast Asian producers results in a price difference between these two regions. Consequently, there is a price imbalance between Asia and the rest of the world. The difference between Turkish origin reinforcing bar and wire rod prices and Chinese, Vietnamese or Malaysian origin reinforcing bar and wire rod prices is more than US$100 per ton. The price difference between the North American and the EU/UK markets is even greater. International markets are becoming more regional than ever. European steel prices are now the highest in the world. Asian and especially Chinese prices are substantially lower than anywhere else. The steel trade is changing direction from selling to Asia to buying from Asia.

New destinations sought for Russian raw materials and semi-finished products

Russian raw material and semi-finished products are searching for destinations that are willing to import and at new discounted prices. It seems that Russian finished products are not being exported yet at all.

Demand and prices increase in EU amid reduction of mills’ capacity utilization

EU mills are concerned how all these disruptions will impact their production and are not willing to make any long-term commitments. Sales from stocks on a daily basis are becoming fashionable and the market has no other option but to accept this situation. The reduction of capacity utilization rates and the fears of stoppages by some mills are resulting in higher demand from the market than usual, as construction companies want to secure material for their projects. Prices have increased significantly with the lack of import options supporting the upward movement. Brussels is not ready to lift its safeguard measures despite strong protests from downstream industry.

Supply and demand stable in the US

Demand in the US is the same and supply from domestic producers has not changed either. However, considering the fact that the mills are running at full capacity, it is fair to expect that any increase in demand will have to be compensated for by imports. Import restrictions and therefore prices from regular suppliers have increased dramatically due to the war in Ukraine. With this, the prices in the US are also on an upward trend, catching up with the rest of the world.

Lower capacity utilizations and shutdowns in EU make more scrap available for Turkey

Scrap exports from Russia and Ukraine are almost at a standstill. However, EU steel mills have refused to pay more for scrap and have reduced their capacity utilization rates. There have even been complete shutdowns in some cases, creating extra supply of scrap in the market for Turkish mills. As a result, the Turkish mills have compensated for the missing quantities from Russia and Ukraine by the extra availability of European scrap, which has helped them keep scrap prices under control while at the same time they are exporting extra volumes of steel to the EU market.

New opportunities but also imbalances created by absence of Ukraine and Russia

The sudden disappearance of two major steel supplying countries in the global market has suddenly changed the supply and demand balance in favour of suppliers in other countries. The spread between raw material to product has become much bigger than predicted at the beginning of the year. The situation certainly creates many new opportunities but also major imbalances.

Competition from Asian mills increases gradually

Competition in the market is very regionalized, except for some products suffering from the impact of the conflict. The traditional competition from CIS-based and European mills has disappeared. The new competition, which has been slowly appearing, is from Asian mills.

Some weeks needed for unstable market to find equilibrium, outlook still very uncertain

Scrap price increases will continue, but the war is a major negative factor for the market. It will take some weeks for the market to find its equilibrium. Under the current circumstances, the market can be described as fluctuating and unstable. The outlook is very uncertain as the fundamentals may change daily.

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The global long steel products market has entered a new and completely unprecedented situation as a result of the war in Ukraine. The current situation means one of the largest suppliers of many raw and semi-processed materials will be completely excluded from the market for an unforeseeable period of time, with the consequences being almost impossible to predict at the moment.

Supplies of raw materials and semis from northern Black Sea at standstill

There will certainly be difficulties which, in fact, have started already, with the supplies of raw material and semis from the northern shores of the Black Sea. The situation will definitely push prices up due to the reduction in shipments in general out of Russia and Ukraine, and the depth of the impact will be shaped by the extent of the measures against Russia and the duration of the conflict. We may see further shortages in energy supplies, which will increase costs further. The price increases for all steel products and the supply shortages will be greater and more serious than many people expected. There will be a long-term disruption of trade and shipments.

Will the steel industry have enough raw materials for April? No firm prices for anything

The steel industry does not know if it has enough raw materials to operate in April, nor does it know what the price will be for those raw materials that are available for purchase.  The steel industry is not quoting firm prices for anything, and any price mentioned would have been inconceivable before the last week of February. A significant part of commercial billet and slab has suddenly been put out of the global business. The CIS is a major part of this trade along with pig iron and iron ore pellets. We are currently going through a massive remapping of logic. Materials need to be covered from other sources in an already limited market. Conditions are extremely tight, which also shows in short-term pricing spikes.

Russian exporters hit by sanctions

Russian exporters have hit a brick wall in the Black Sea. There will be enormous problems with shipments whether westwards or southwards, as well as financial and logistical difficulties. Companies from the countries that have joined the sanctions will be making sure that their supply chains are not using material from the sanctioned countries. Ships that load cargoes at Russian ports will be subject to sanctions themselves: they may lose insurance and their cargoes will not be insured. Many customers will not take the risk of buying products of Russian origin.

Far East ports and China to remain best option for Russia’s exports

On the other hand, Russian mills are expected to maintain production but flows of steel will be from their Far East ports and by rail delivery to China.  Russian mills have the absolute lowest cost of production and by far the lowest marginal cost of producing one ton of steel. So, if they can ship and get paid, they will flood the Asian markets including the Indian subcontinent with increased quantities. This will affect the flows of everyone else in Asia and may not be welcome by the Chinese steel industry. China is the most stable steel market in the world today and it does not want instability.

China set to become dominant billet supplier to North Africa

China will probably become the dominant supplier of billets to North African markets, in competition with Turkish suppliers. The overall situation is bleak. The world is now very short of BF and DR pellets. The shortages of pig iron and HBI already existed.  For many users of such raw materials, Ukraine and Russia were the No. 1 or No. 2 supplier.

Scrap market in chaos, exporters delay new sales to compensate for previous losses

Scrap exporters sold at least 1.3 million metric tons of scrap to Turkey for March shipment and most of this tonnage is yet to be collected. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all markets are upside down and the cost of scrap in all regions is going up. At present, the demand is for April cargoes and sellers are busy trying to complete their old-priced tonnages for March. When the scrap market moves up further, the cost of collection also rises further, increasing losses for March, but this seems unavoidable. Accordingly, exporters are trying to delay their new sales for April as much as possible in order to compensate for the mentioned losses, making the current market situation even worse.

Price in US may have hit bottom

In the US market, prices had been softening until recently and have maybe hit bottom now. demand is strong, but domestic mills seem to satisfy most of the demand. Most international mills have stopped giving offers, so no new offers are available anyway. The holiday season is almost over. The only remaining holiday is Ramadan. Furthermore, we are almost at the end of the pandemic, unless another variant surprises us. Prices will go up in some places and prices could at the same time go down in others. Anyone who is not afraid of sanctions will be able to enjoy very cheap Russian and Belorussian origin raw materials and steel.

Not much competition in global longs market, severe competition for scrap

There is not much competition in the market. Prices will explode due to logistical problems and competition will be more and more regional. On the other hand, there is already severe competition among scrap importing countries to obtain scrap, and this is expected to continue. Winter conditions will be over by April, so scrap flows will be normalised. However, the loss of volumes from Russia and Ukraine will have to be compensated for somehow.

Market is currently unstable, outlook is extremely unpredictable

The current status of the market can be described as fluctuating and unstable. The outlook is also extremely unpredictable. Regardless of whether the steel industry does quite well, major questions will exist around increased inflation and possibly lower growth, perhaps stagflation.

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“The President is issuing an executive order authorizing the imposition of additional sanctions against any individual owning, operating, trading with, or assisting sectors of the Iranian economy including construction, manufacturing, textiles, and mining,” US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin told reporters at the White House. Mnuchin added that the sanction will be in effect “until Iran stops its terrorist activities and commit to never having a nuclear weapon.”

U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) took action against eight senior Iranian regime officials and  designated 17 Iranian metals producers and mining companies; a network of three China- and Seychelles-based entities; and a vessel involved in the purchase, sale, and transfer of Iranian metals products, as well as in the provision of critical metals production components to Iranian metal producers.

Today’s action targets the 13 largest steel and iron manufacturers in Iran. OFAC is designating Mobarakeh Steel Company, Saba Steel, Hormozgan Steel Company, Esfahan Steel Company, Oxin Steel Company, Khorasan Steel Company, South Kaveh Steel Company, Iran Alloy Steel Company, Golgohar Mining and Industrial Company, Chadormalu Mining and Industrial Company, Arfa Iron and Steel Company, Khouzestan Steel Company, and Iranian Ghadir Iron & Steel Co pursuant to E.O. 13871 for operating in the iron, steel, aluminum, or copper sectors of Iran.