The overall business environment in the global long steel products market has deteriorated again. Everything is even more difficult and complexities are increasing further. Nevertheless, the apparent de-escalation of the conflict involving Iran could mark an important turning point. If geopolitical risks continue to ease, we may be approaching the bottom of the current market cycle.

International rebar market now weaker compared to one month ago

The international reinforcing bars market is now weaker than it was a month ago. Demand in the market continues to be subdued, while supply remains high, putting pressure on prices and margins. However, in addition to the positive development represented by the easing of tensions in the Middle East, some producers are heard to have begun lowering production in response to market conditions, which should help improve the supply-and-demand balance over time.

Demand hit by low confidence, more Iranian and Russian billet could depress rebar prices

It seems that the concerns and lack of confidence shown by market players, in particular by buyers, constitute the main obstacles preventing demand from improving. The price of scrap shows how confident mills are for future planning. We may see more Iranian and Russian billets in the market, which would exert further pressure on reinforcing bar prices.

Producers face higher costs of power during the hot summer season

As far as costs are concerned, with energy demand increasing amid the seasonally high temperatures, the higher price of power will also work against producers’ interests.

EU struggles to improve its GDP, domestic prices soften due to weak demand

The overall geopolitical situation is not good for investments and Europe is still struggling to improve its GDP, while energy costs and inflation are rising. In the meantime, we have entered into a new phase regarding EU imports, which will only be observed during the initial days of the new quarterly period and will then be silent for the rest of the quarter. Despite the announcement of the quota reduction by almost 50 percent well in advance, EU mills had been able to raise their prices for a while, but now their prices are falling back to where they were before, as demand is weak all over the EU.

Chinese steel exports continue to increase despite gradual decline in output

There is nothing positive in the Far East except for the gradual decrease in production in China, which, however, will not change anything in the short run. Chinese steel exports continue to increase.

US market very reliant on data centers

Capacity utilization in the US is stalling at 81 percent and domestic mills are announcing increases of US$10/nt. The driver in the US market has been data centers, which are not all 100 percent-financed or are without building permits.

Most encouraging development was the easing of tensions in Middle East

Having said all above, the most encouraging development was the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Greater regional stability could have supported a gradual recovery in economic activity and steel demand, particularly in the Gulf markets. At the same time, despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, there are signs of improving demand for steel products. This suggests that reconstruction needs and investment could provide support for the market once geopolitical conditions normalize. These developments had given reason for cautious optimism about the medium-term outlook. But the tension seems to be there again.

Global competition still extremely intense, few genuinely free markets remain

Competition in the global steel market remains extremely intense. Trade flows continue to be shaped by tariffs, quotas and other trade measures, resulting in fragmented regional markets. Within Europe, competition is strong due to weak demand and significant production capacities. Competition in third-country export markets is even more challenging, as suppliers from around the world compete for a shrinking number of open destinations. Today, there are relatively few genuinely free markets remaining for global steel producers.

Current market status unstable, with a very unclear outlook

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable with a very unclear outlook.

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Half of the import quotas have been allocated exclusively to free trade agreement (FTA) partners, while the remaining half will be available to all exporting countries, including FTA partners.

The regulation establishes three different quota access mechanisms depending on the exporting country’s status.

Countries receiving a country-specific quota (CSQ) may use their allocated quota immediately. Once exhausted, eligible FTA partners may continue exporting under an additional FTA Quota – CSQ, which is administered on a first-come, first-served basis.

Countries without country-specific quotas may instead access:
- “Other countries” quota: accessible for the exporting countries which are not FTA partners.
- FTA Quota – Other countries quota: accessible for the exporting countries which are FTA partners.

The countries that are able to access these three type of quotas may vary depending on the products.

The CSQ allocations for reinforcing bars are as follows:

• Türkiye : 239,66.09 mtons (59,919.02 mtons per quarter)
• Egypt : 144,367.80 mtons (36,091.95 mtons per quarter)
• Algeria : 63,761.42 mtons (15,940.36 mtons per quarter)
• Moldova : 39,719.11 mtons (9,929.78 mtons per quarter)
• China : 20,216.13 mtons (5,054.03 mtons per quarter)
• Ukraine : 67,710.16 mtons (16,927.54 mtons per quarter)
• FTA Quota – CSQ : 158,803.37 mtons (39,700.84 mtons per quarter)
• Other Countries : 63,322.34 mtons (15,830.59 mtons per quarter)
• FTA Quota – Other Countries : 38,299.23 mtons (9,574.81 mtons per quarter)
• UK (to Northern Ireland from other parts of the UK) : 8,649.90 mtons (2,162.48 mtons per quarter)

The CSQ allocations for wire rods are as follows:

• Türkiye : 244,589.00 mtons (61,147.25 mtons per quarter)
• Malaysia : 86,683.40 mtons (21,670.85 mtons per quarter)
• UK : 175,399.53 mtons (43,849.88 mtons per quarter)
• Ukraine : 189,145.02 mtons (47,286.26 mtons per quarter)
• Switzerland : 162,195.34 mtons (40,548.83 mtons per quarter)
• Viet Nam : 97,086.65 mtons (24,271.66 mtons per quarter)
• Moldova : 95,839.25 mtons (23,959.81 mtons per quarter)
• Egypt : 86,714.89 mtons (21,678.72 mtons per quarter)
• FTA Quota – CSQ : 122,881.38 mtons (30,720.34 mtons per quarter)
• Other Countries : 153,927.34 mtons (38,481.84 mtons per quarter)
• FTA Quota – Other Countries : 138,440.96 mtons (34,610.24 mtons per quarter)
• Korea : 11,334.76 mtons (2,833.69 mtons per quarter)
• Japan : 5,293.99 mtons (1,323.50 mtons per quarter)

The “melt and pour” requirement the regulation introduces will apply from October 1, 2026. The European Commission is required to adopt detailed implementing rules specifying the evidence required by August 31, 2026. By June 30, 2028, the Commission shall, based on the information collected pursuant to “melt and pour” requirement, assess whether it is necessary to designate the country of “melt and pour” as the basis for benefiting from the tariff quotas provided for in this regulation. Based on that assessment, the Commission may submit a legislative proposal to the European Parliament and to the Council.

By 30 June 2027, the Commission shall assess the necessity of amending the product scope, taking into account in particular whether it should cover additional products that are made of, or contain, a significant amount of steel, including as a matter of priority downstream iron and steel products not covered by the regulation. Where sufficient evidence is gathered in its assessment demonstrating that necessity, the Commission may without undue delay submit a legislative proposal to the European Parliament and to the Council.

By June 30, 2029 and every three years thereafter the implementation of the regulation, the Commission shall evaluate the effectiveness of this regulation, after having carried out broad consultations with stakeholders throughout the steel value chain.

The regulation sets the total annual tariff-rate quota at 18,345,922 mt, while imports within the quota will remain duty-free, while volumes exceeding the quota will be subject to a 50 percent tariff, a sharp increase compared to the previous 25 percent safeguard duty. Depending on the product category, quota volume reductions of up to 90 percent will be implemented. However, details regarding the country-specific quota allocations have not yet been announced.

The regulation sets the total annual tariff-rate quota at 18,345,922 mt, while imports within the quota will remain duty-free, while volumes exceeding the quota will be subject to a 50 percent tariff, a sharp increase compared to the previous 25 percent safeguard duty.

This measure applies broadly to all third countries, including those with free trade agreements or preferential access, reinforcing the EU’s efforts to prevent trade diversion and protect domestic producers. However, imports originating from Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are excluded from the scope of the measure. The European Commission also retains the authority to expand the scope to include downstream steel products in future reviews.

The tariff-rate quotas will be administered on a quarterly basis, aiming to prevent import surges within short periods. During the first year of implementation, unused quotas will be carried over to subsequent quarters. However, the commission may later adjust this rule depending on market conditions, including import pressure and supply shortages.

The European Commission will:

• review the product scope regularly,
• assess the effectiveness of the measure every three years,
• potentially adjust quota volumes within a range of 14.4-22.2 million mt depending on market developments.

Annual volumes of tariff rate quotas for some steel products are listed below.

• Merchant Bars and Light Sections  :  881,735 mtons
• Rebars    : 844,526 mtons
• Wire Rods   : 1,569,532 mtons

In a joint statement, the European Parliament, the Council and the European Commission underlined that the EU has taken unprecedented steps since the start of the war to reduce its economic dependence on Russia and prevent its economic activity from supporting Russia’s war efforts.

However, the institutions acknowledged that some dependencies still remain, particularly for certain steel products that are not yet fully restricted. Limited volumes of Russian steel imports are therefore still permitted under transitional arrangements until September 30, 2028, with quotas that decrease annually. The EU confirmed that these measures are designed to ensure a complete phase-out of remaining Russian steel imports by the 2028 deadline.

There were 99 representatives from 41 different producers among the 386 registered delegates from a total of 49 different countries. There were also 86 registrations representing 41 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Ioannis Manessis, chairman of IREPAS, said that two major conflicts – one in Ukraine and the other in Iran — have consequences for global trade in general and serious repercussions for the industry in particular. He said steel trade has been affected by both demand destruction and supply disruptions, as well as by elevated energy costs, higher freight rates and the practical difficulty of securing vessels on time to transport materials.

Mr Manessis added that protectionism continues to intensify at the same time. IREPAS chairman also said that real demand in the global long products sector remains subdued while geopolitical tensions have driven up freight, energy, and raw material costs. Combined with some degree of inventory replenishment, this has supported higher prices he concluded.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Tighter supply, geopolitics reshape global scrap market

Speaking at the panel session, Jens Björkman from Stena Metal International and also chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, shared the committee’s assessments of the current dynamics and difficulties in the global raw material markets. Mr. Björkman highlighted significant shifts in global market dynamics over the past year, pointing to tighter supply conditions, changing trade flows and increasing geopolitical influence on pricing and demand. One of the key developments has been the slowdown in Chinese steel output, with March production falling to the lowest monthly level in six years. This decline, linked to weaker margins and stricter controls, has supported sentiment in other regions, while iron ore prices have remained relatively firm at $105-110/mt due to supply-side constraints. India continues to stand out as a major growth market, supported by strong domestic sponge iron production. This has reduced its reliance on scrap imports, although the country could be an attractive destination, based on freight costs and pricing conditions.

The chairman of the raw material suppliers committee stated that, in Europe, safeguard measures and regulatory frameworks have reinforced protectionist dynamics, supporting intra-regional scrap demand. However, concerns persist over high energy costs and the risk of stagflation, which could weigh on longer-term demand. In the United States, stronger domestic steel production has boosted internal demand for raw materials. At the same time, the attractiveness of scrap exports has declined, particularly for high-quality grades, as supply increasingly shifts toward domestic consumption.

Mr. Björkman pointed out that Turkey has seen improved sentiment, supported by stronger steel production and demand. Reduced semis supply from Iran has increased reliance on scrap imports, pushing prices to around $410/mt, an annual high. Rising freight costs, driven by higher bunker fuel prices and disruptions of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, have further supported pricing.

Mr. Björkman emphasized that there is no global surplus of scrap supply, as scrap continues to be steadily consumed. Europe exports around 19-20 million mt annually, reflecting limited domestic demand growth, but future availability may tighten due to increasing EAF adoption and regulatory constraints. Traditional importers in the Middle East may face challenges as scrap availability tightens in Europe and the US. Meanwhile, he noted, growing scrap generation and processing capacity in Asia, particularly in China and India, could gradually reshape global trade flows.

Mr. Björkman said that increasing regulatory requirements, particularly EU waste shipment rules, are expected to drive investment in sorting and processing. At the same time, tighter credit conditions and reduced availability of trade finance are adding complexity to global scrap trade. He went on to say that, despite strong pricing and demand conditions, the market outlook remains uncertain. Energy prices, economic growth and geopolitical developments continue to pose risks, while elevated oil prices at around $110 per barrel are still considered manageable for now. However, in conclusion, he commented that any deterioration in demand or purchasing power could quickly shift the market into a more challenging phase.

Traders at IREPAS: Geopolitical tensions and higher costs disrupt steel trade flows

Speaking during the panel session, Wilhelm Alff, director at Duferco and chairman of the traders committee, shared the committee’s assessment of current market conditions, highlighting weakening demand, regulatory pressures and rising geopolitical risks. Mr. Alff reminded that crude steel production in China reached around 960 million mt in 2025, while data from the first quarter of 2026 indicate that output may decline further or at best remain stable, with no clear signs of growth. In China, the sharpest drop was observed in the rebar segment, in which production fell by 12 percent, reflecting the ongoing downturn in the construction sector. The only improvement in China was the growth of more than 10 percent in iron ore inventories, mainly due to strategic stock building, highlighting the disconnect between raw material positioning and weak end-user demand.

This weakness in demand is particularly evident in Europe, where the overall economic outlook remains poor. Public spending is increasingly being redirected toward defense and social support rather than infrastructure, especially in Germany, limiting the recovery potential for steel consumption. The committee also pointed out that existing production capacity in the EU continues to exceed demand, noting that even prolonged production stoppages by major producers have had little visible impact on the market. A key concern for traders remains the implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The committee chairman emphasized that, in the current environment, traders are advised to use default emission values when calculating CBAM costs in order to avoid risks, although this approach increases cost exposure. Uncertainty surrounding calculation methods and verification procedures continues to complicate transactions, making it essential to involve producers and clearly define contract terms.

In addition, recent changes to the EU safeguard system have added further pressure. Quotas have been reduced by nearly 50 percent, while out-of-quota duties may rise to as high as 50 percent. Market participants criticized the lack of adjustment in country-specific quotas, even where suppliers have not delivered material for extended periods. As a result, portions of the quota system remain effectively unusable, further tightening supply and negatively affecting buyers and end-users in the region. Against this backdrop, traders also highlighted the growing impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. According to Mr. Alff, escalating tensions have tightened raw material supply chains and pushed costs higher, significantly slowing trading activity. Mills are increasingly relying on short-term sourcing strategies and opportunistic cargoes, while additional costs for transporting billets overland from Omani ports are estimated at around $40/mt. Severe port congestion is further complicating trade flows, making execution increasingly difficult. Despite these disruptions, the committee believes that the current situation is still being treated as temporary rather than structural. However, logistical constraints, especially in key maritime routes, continue to limit cargo movements and add uncertainty to global trade.

Commenting on global trade flows, Mr. Alff noted that exporters are likely to face growing challenges in accessing traditional markets. Tightening EU quotas and rising protectionism are forcing suppliers to seek alternative destinations, though options are becoming increasingly limited as more countries introduce similar trade barriers. Africa is expected to remain a key growth market in the medium term, supported by rising imports from Asia, particularly China, although the expansion of local production capacity and potential protectionist measures could gradually slow this trend.

Regarding China, the committee expects semi-finished steel exports to remain at elevated levels but under tighter control, as the Chinese authorities are likely to manage trade flows more actively to avoid another sharp surge. While the ongoing crisis in the Gulf region could support demand for Chinese material, its impact will largely depend on logistical conditions and the ability to move cargoes efficiently.

Looking at other regions, market conditions in the US and Latin America were described as relatively stable, with the US benefiting from solid demand driven by public infrastructure projects.

Overall, the traders committee underlined that the global steel market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty, shaped by weak demand in key regions, regulatory changes and geopolitical risks. In such an environment, Alff concluded that it is extremely difficult to predict price trends, emphasizing that market participants will need to continuously monitor developments and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Producers at IREPAS: Global steel sector under pressure from costs and weak growth

Alex Gordienko, export director of Spain’s CELSA Group and representing the producers committee, stated, in sharing the producers committee’s findings, that the global steel industry is facing increasing pressure from rising costs, weak economic growth and regulatory complexity. He noted that uncertainty remains high, particularly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Mr. Gordienko indicated that raw material prices have risen significantly, while the ability to pass these costs on to customers remains limited. As a result, margins across the industry are under sustained pressure, with finished steel prices failing to fully reflect higher input costs.

Mr. Gordienko noted that economic growth remains subdued across many regions, limiting the potential for a meaningful recovery in steel demand. He warned that current conditions reflect a fragile balance, with demand holding but lacking strong momentum. He described energy markets as highly volatile, largely due to tensions in the Middle East, adding that there is no clear timeline for a resolution and that a prolonged conflict could significantly worsen market conditions.

Mr. Gordienko went on to state that trade policy remains a key theme, with the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at the center of discussions.

CBAM is seen as a mechanism that will gradually level carbon costs globally, encouraging countries such as Turkey, China and India to develop their own carbon pricing systems.

He said that, while CBAM is not expected to trigger immediate price changes, producers anticipate a medium-term disruption. By 2027, mills with verified emissions data are expected to gain a competitive advantage, as buyers increasingly prioritize suppliers able to provide reliable carbon data. Currently, only a limited number of suppliers, particularly in Japan and South Korea, are fully prepared for these requirements.

Meanwhile, the other restrictive factor, he pointed out, is that a new quota system stricter than the EU’s framework is expected to be introduced in the UK.

Mr. Gordienko commented that logistical challenges are adding further pressure, particularly in the Middle East, where port congestion is disrupting cargo flows. Limited truck availability and rising freight costs, driven by higher bunker fuel prices and fuel shortages, are increasing delivery costs for producers. He also stated that production disruptions in Iran have significantly affected global semis supply. Publicly available information indicates that facilities representing around 10 million mt of capacity have been heavily damaged, with recovery timelines ranging from six to 12 months. Iran exported approximately 3 million mt of semis in 2025, with around 75 percent directed to Asia. The disruption has contributed to increased Chinese semi-finished exports, particularly in March, as China moved to fill the supply gap. In the meantime, diesel shortages in Europe and transportation constraints are further amplifying cost pressures, with freight rates rising faster than oil prices.

On the raw materials side, Gordienko stated that availability remains a structural constraint. European producers, heavily reliant on scrap for electric arc furnace-based production, face limited flexibility in switching to alternative inputs such as HBI due to high energy requirements. This suggests limited short-term changes in production routes.

Lastly, he shared his prediction regarding the market outlook. Despite relatively stable demand and pricing conditions, the overall outlook remains uncertain. In conclusion, he said that energy prices, geopolitical developments and cost pressures continue to pose significant risks, leaving the global steel industry in a fragile and unpredictable environment.

The same pattern continues to prevail in the global long steel products market – weak demand, new capacities and mills running below where they should be. The global picture has narrowed: demand is flat and partly seasonal, supply keeps increasing and the supply-demand balance looks worse every week. The main issue is not really demand or supply, it is about who can still move material. The tonnages are there but trading opportunities have shrunk and competition is relentless. China keeps exporting because it must and, with most traditional markets closing behind protective barriers, exporters are fighting over the same limited opportunities for open trade.

Mills lack profitability, buyers lack interest, system lacks oxygen

Prices appear stable, but confidence seems to be absent. Mills remain busy, but lack profitability, while buyers hold stocks, but have no appetite to buy more. The system still functions, but with less and less oxygen.

Uncertainty still predominates, 2026 foreseen to be difficult for exporters

Uncertainty is still the prevailing tone in the market. The recent China-US talks were not as positive as the leaders described, similar to the situation regarding China’s five-year plan. It seems that China will continue to flood the market with 10 million tonnes every month. On the other hand, due to the 50 percent Section 232 tariffs, US imports will be reduced by 10 million tonnes annually and the new safeguard system in the EU will take approximately another 20 million tonnes of demand from the import market. This means import demand will be down approximately 30 million tonnes annually. With total Chinese exports increasing by around 60 million tonnes, next year will be very difficult for exporting countries.

Longs imports into EU almost at standstill, regional prices foreseen to increase by Q1

In the EU, the uncertainties about CBAM, reduced quotas and higher duties have led to an almost 100 percent standstill in imports of long steel products into the EU market.  As the shipments ordered a month ago are now entering the market, the impact on domestic mills’ price increases is still not visible. The seasonal demand trend will not provide any help either to bring prices up. However, it is expected that the prices of EU domestic producers will increase significantly in the first quarter of 2026 at the latest due to the absence of import alternatives.

New capacities in US increase pressure on prices

US long product demand remains flat and below 2024 levels, while domestic supply has expanded with new mill capacities, adding pressure on prices. Imports are minimal due to the 50 percent Section 232 duty, compounded by the AD/CVD tariffs on traditional suppliers.

Extended US government shutdown hits confidence levels in domestic market

The 0.25 percent interest rate cut in the US has done little to revive construction activity, and even a further reduction of a similar scale expected in December would not significantly shift market sentiment. The ongoing US government shutdown – now exceeding 30 days – has further weakened confidence, delaying infrastructure spending and procurement. Overall, the US market remains oversupplied and cautious, with limited visibility for an improvement into early 2026.

Few positives entering the holiday season, protectionism here to stay for now

We are entering the holiday season up to mid-February and so market activity will be slower than usual in the northern hemisphere. It is very tough to point to real positives in the market, but at least we know where we stand now. Protectionism is not just a temporary phase, it is the current framework market players have to operate in. This at least brings a certain level of stability: there are fewer unexpected twists and there is somewhat greater predictability in the market.

At least no escalation in US-China trade tensions, future interest rate cuts may help

Another positive development is that the trade war between the US and China has not escalated. Further interest cuts in 2026 will certainly help, if they happen.

Current market status unstable, with unsatisfactory outlook

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable with a tough, slow and unsatisfactory outlook.

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Accordingly, the new system maintains the principle of open trade and strengthens engagement with global partners to tackle overcapacity, by

1. limiting tariff-free import volumes to 18.3 million mt a year (a reduction of 47 percent compared to the 2024 steel quotas),
2. doubling the level of out-of-quota duty to 50 percent, compared to the 25 percent under the safeguard, and
3. strengthening the traceability of steel markets by introducing a “Melt and Pour” requirement to prevent circumvention.

The quota volumes of various long steel products can be seen in the table below.

• Merchant Bars and Light Sections    881,735 metric tons
• Reinforcing bars    844,526 metric tons
• Wire Rods    1,569,532 metric tons

Under the new regulation, the EU will maintain free-of-duty tariff quotas equivalent to pre-overcapacity market conditions – calculated based on the 2013 import share of around 13 percent of EU consumption, resulting in an annual total quota volume of 18.3 million mt. The EU’s import volume will decrease as a result of the decline in the quota volume. The quotas will be administered on a quarterly basis, without carry-over between quarters, to avoid market flooding. The quotas will also be allocated per product category based on the share of imports that each product category held over the 2022-24 period. If deemed necessary, the European Commission may implement country-specific quotas or restrictions. Once these quotas are exhausted, a 50 percent tariff will apply, up from the current 25 percent, in line with global tariff levels with an aim to minimize the risk of trade diversion.

The measures will require importers to declare the country of “melt and pour” origin, verifying where the steel was originally produced in liquid form to prevent circumvention.

The Commission will make an assessment at the latest within two years following the adoption of this regulation to evaluate the necessity to adjust the scope of products and, if deemed necessary, it will consider making a legislative proposal to add additional steel products, including products that are made of or contain a significant amount of steel. In addition, the Commission shall evaluate the effectiveness of this regulation before July 1, 2031, and every five years thereafter.

There were 123 representatives from 49 different producers among the 406 registered delegates from a total of 56 different countries. There were also 79 registrations representing 41 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that demand is still very weak in the global longs market and the situation remains difficult as mills are cutting back on production and protectionist measures are continuing full speed ahead, while China and other countries in Asia are exporting a lot, putting pressure on prices.

The IREPAS chairman added that there is very severe competition in the market, and every producer is fighting with its last penny in order to keep operating.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Global trade conditions are “devastating” due to uncertainty

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, said that, in the recent period, global trade conditions have been extremely difficult, describing the situation as “devastating” amid the current uncertainty. Pointing out that trade barriers and uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on the market, particularly with the US tariffs forcing some countries to find alternative destinations, he added that this shift has created pressure on other markets, including Turkey. Regarding the protectionism in the market, he stated that there are rumors that the EU will impose some duties on Asian materials due to the huge inflows of cheaper steel from the region. Meanwhile, noting that China, which is the main exporter of cheap steel, has signaled plans to reduce steel production and exports in 2025 and 2026, albeit the actual outcome remains uncertain, he said that, in the longer term, larger investments in EAF-based production are expected, supported by stable electricity supply and growing domestic scrap availability. China has also announced a cut of about 90 million metric tons in its steel production in 2025.

Highlighting that the planned green transition in the steel industry is increasingly being questioned, with many investments being cancelled and projects being delayed, Mr. Björkman stated that the EU’s move toward electric furnace-based production has now been postponed by at least three to four years. He underlined that, if carbon emission trading in Europe and the related pricing system are fully implemented, emission reduction technologies will need to be installed more widely. However, he said that, instead of hydrogen-based DRI, natural gas could be used in the short term. In addition, the raw materials committee chairman said EU waste shipment regulations treating scrap as waste will create more bureaucracy, especially for non-OECD countries needing formal approvals to buy European scrap, while OECD trade remains unaffected. Regarding the concerns over domestic scrap oversupply, he stated that Europe already faces excess supply overall, but certain grades like clean automotive scrap could face shortages. This imbalance, he explained, is why EU steel producers push to keep scrap within Europe.

Looking at Turkey, Björkman noted that the recent increase in freight costs has become a burden for suppliers, leading prices to increase slightly in Turkey, though how long this situation will last remains difficult to predict. Regarding the changes in Turkey’s inward processing regime, the committee chairman stated that Turkish mills, who are already struggling amid high costs, may become less competitive in the short term as scrap prices may increase slightly, leading the mills to reduce production.

Meanwhile, stating that raw material demand in the GCC market is expected to focus more on DRI/HBI, which remains limited in supply, he emphasized that larger volumes will be needed in Europe to support flat steel production and the green transition, though a mix of DRI/HBI and scrap is likely to be used.

Traders at IREPAS: Protectionist measures will continue for foreseeable future

F.D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, said that China’s exports have increased at a much higher pace than its production. He stated that there are no expectations for production cuts in China and that its domestic stock levels remain at normal levels. In response to questions on how China is reacting to trade barriers, he explained that Chinese producers have begun investing in production facilities in other regions, including Africa and South America.

Looking at Turkey, Mr. Baysal said that the high cost of energy remains a key challenge for Turkish mills. He noted that, in order to save energy and comply with CBAM regulations, Turkish producers have started investing in solar and renewable energy sources, which are expected to reduce production costs. Meanwhile, saying that there are no clear plans in the EU to ease green transition requirements, though delays remain a possibility, he commented that CBAM will eventually be enforced, but significant work is still needed to establish reference levels for both European and overseas mills. He added that, despite uncertainties, European producers are already moving from blast furnaces to EAFs and investing in renewable energy sources such as solar to balance costs and meet future carbon requirements.

Commenting on protectionist measures, the committee chairman stated that the Trump administration’s tariffs, reaching 75-100 percent in some cases, have nearly halted steel imports into the US, while Canada and Mexico have also imposed strong protective measures, leaving the North American market heavily restricted. Stating that he believes that protectionist measures will continue for the foreseeable future, Baysal said that further barriers against cheaper Asian steel are likely, but stressed that free trade remains the best option, though current trends are moving in the opposite direction.

Regarding prices, he highlighted that the current spread between rebar and scrap prices stands at around $200 or slightly less. He suggested that this points to a likely regression in scrap prices. He also compared production methods, stating that blast furnaces currently hold a cost advantage of about $25/mt over electric arc furnaces as the latter depend on electricity prices, though these are lower in countries like the US. On freight, Baysal noted that container freight rates have come down from post-Covid highs of around $4,000 to about $1,200, adding that he does not expect them to fall further.

Producers at IREPAS: Chinese exports and protectionism squeeze global steel industry

Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, said that, as demand is very limited, everybody is trying to protect what is theirs. “We can sell to the EU only once every three months because of the quota and it fills up as soon as the quota is opened. Because of China we cannot sell to many places. Chinese exports are hurting everyone,” he explained. The committee chairman pointed out that China is the main driver, exporting heavily at low prices, exerting pressure everywhere amid generally limited demand. Many countries are imposing protective measures not only on China but also on some other Asian countries, considering that the Chinese are quick to move their production elsewhere to avoid trade barriers.

Regarding Turkish mills’ capacity utilization rates, Mr. Cebecioglu pointed out that, under current market conditions, utilization rates are not at decent levels and, with protectionist measures still in place, Turkey has limited space to export, with only a few countries left, and competition is very tough in those countries. He also added that the countries to which Turkey used to export have become exporters themselves and this affects Turkish production in return. Turkey’s steel production capacity stands at around 60 million mt, but the country is currently producing just 38 million mt. In addition to trade measures, China is exporting heavily all around the world and, as it is difficult to give low prices to compete with the Chinese, in the end Turkish mills have to cut production, he remarked.

Commenting on China’s work plan for the steel industry in 2025-26, the IREPAS chairman underlined that the Chinese are always coming up with some kind of plan, but it is yet to be seen how much of it will be implemented and how they will proceed. This work plan, he noted, consists of many things; regulations, environmental constraints, shutting of inefficient mills, and technological upgrading for green steel and low carbon production. In the end, future competition will depend on being cleaner, he stressed. He also commented that, if this Chinese work plan goes through, it will mean that there will be export regulations, leaving room for Turkish mills to breath.

Talking about the mega projects in the GCC region, Cebecioglu said that demand is quite good in the region and GCC-based mills are also exporting to the EU and North African countries, where they are very competitive against the Turkish mills. As GCC mills have lower costs compared to Turkish mills, they have the upper hand in prices in terms of costs.

The upcoming protection framework is expected to counter several structural challenges according to the European Commission:

• The 50 percent US tariffs on steel, which create diversion risks
• Record-high global overcapacity, which undermines EU producers’ profitability
• Dumped imports that erode fair competition and market balance

These elements were cited in the Steel and Metals Action Plan, adopted in March 2025, which underscores the urgency of proactive trade defense strategies.

The EU’s original steel safeguard measures, introduced in 2019, were designed to counter import surges and prevent trade diversion. Following member state requests, the European Commission extended them for two more years in June 2024. Evidence submitted at the time confirmed the measures’ role in preventing serious injury to the EU steel sector.