There were 96 representatives from 36 different producers among the 302 registered delegates from a total of 41 different countries. There were also 75 registrations representing 43 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Ioannis Manessis, chairman of IREPAS, stated that the global steel industry is operating in an increasingly challenging environment characterized by geopolitical conflicts, shifting trade flows, higher costs and relatively weak demand. According to the IREPAS chairman, the deteriorating situations in the Black Sea and Iran are having a significant impact on steel markets and international trade. Damage to ports and vessels’ reluctance to sail have made trade in the Black Sea extremely difficult, while attacks on bulk carriers and oil tankers have also created significant challenges for trade in the Middle East.

Against this backdrop, energy prices, including oil, natural gas and coal prices, have increased, in some cases significantly. Manessis noted that these increases are raising costs for steel producers, scrap suppliers and shipping companies, affecting the entire steel value chain.

At the same time, the industry is facing an increasingly restrictive global trade environment. The IREPAS chairman highlighted the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its safeguard measures implemented after July 1, US tariffs, scrap trade restrictions in around 40 countries worldwide and other trade measures affecting steel markets. He also pointed to China’s recent efforts to prevent its steel industry from offering products at excessively low or loss-making prices, stating that these measures already appear to be having an impact on the market.

Meanwhile, higher interest rates are putting additional pressure on consumers as authorities seek to contain inflation. Manessis stated that, apart from demand related to the expansion of artificial intelligence data centers, global demand for steel products remains relatively weak.

According to the IREPAS chairman, demand is therefore not currently determining the direction of the market, with rising costs instead becoming the key factor. As a result, steel prices are increasing in almost all markets despite weak demand. Manessis added that, although the current environment remains difficult to navigate, higher prices are allowing trade to continue and creating opportunities for market participants.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Producers at IREPAS: Trade barriers and overcapacity are fragmenting global steel markets

Steel producers remain cautiously optimistic despite challenging international trade conditions, while energy and raw material costs are expected to continue putting pressure on mills at least through the end of the winter, according to Alex Gordienko, export director at Spain’s CELSA Group, speaking on behalf of the producers committee.

Mr. Gordienko said that regions face different challenges, with European producers particularly affected by energy-related issues. Nevertheless, producers continue to see underlying domestic demand and remain somewhat more optimistic than current market conditions might suggest.

India expected to remain focused on domestic market

Commenting on the rise in Indian steel demand and the decline in the country’s export activity, Gordienko pointed to significant infrastructure investments and rapidly growing construction demand, while India’s steel production capacity is also increasing. He said he expects India to remain primarily focused on its domestic market over the next five years.

Regarding Southeast Asian suppliers, Gordienko said they will remain competitive internationally, though increasingly selective about their target markets. Their presence is expected to remain significant in the MENA region, while access to the EU will be more difficult due to quota restrictions.

EU needs favorable investment conditions as well as trade protection

Turning to Europe, Gordienko said there is significant potential demand from housing, electricity generation, data centers and defense investments, as well as the replacement of aging infrastructure. However, bureaucratic barriers are preventing these needs from translating into actual construction and investment.

According to Gordienko, the EU has become increasingly effective at protecting its steel market, but less successful in creating economic conditions that make steel production and investment attractive. Safeguards and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) provide some protection, but cannot compensate for issues such as insufficient or expensive energy supply.

Overcapacity and trade barriers to fragment global markets

Addressing global overcapacity, Gordienko said governments increasingly want to preserve domestic steelmaking capacity even when mills struggle to generate profits, while new capacity continues to emerge in several regions.

He said he sees no realistic global mechanism capable of effectively regulating excess capacity. As trade barriers increase, surplus steel will have access to fewer export destinations, increasing the pressure on markets that remain open. At the same time, protected markets could experience temporary shortages and price increases despite substantial global excess capacity.

Gordienko said fragmentation is also changing the traditional steel market cycle. Instead of one broadly synchronized global cycle, individual regions are increasingly likely to follow their own cycles as trade barriers, domestic policies and local market conditions gain importance.

Looking ahead to 2027, he identified fragmentation as a key issue, encompassing overcapacity, Chinese exports and growing trade barriers, with market participants increasingly needing to focus on developments in their own domestic markets.

Traders at IREPAS: Trade barriers and freight risks make steel trade more regional

F.D. Baysal, chairman and CEO of SEBA Group of Companies and chairman of the traders committee, shared the committee’s assessment of current market conditions, highlighting weakening demand, regulatory pressures and rising geopolitical risks.

Mr. Baysal stated that steel trade is becoming more regional as tariffs, freight risks and additional import requirements complicate transactions. Presenting the findings of the IREPAS traders committee, Baysal said China had reduced steel production but continued to export large volumes. He stated that export licensing and VAT-related changes had altered the composition of its exports, with a greater share of long products. Continued weakness in China’s real estate sector has left surplus production seeking overseas markets, he added.

Freight risks complicate steel trade in Middle East

Baysal described freight conditions as volatile, stating that shipping from Asia to Europe has remained relatively soft, while finding vessels for shipments to and from the Middle East has become difficult. War-risk premiums and higher bunker costs have added to the challenges faced by traders.

Regarding trade in the GCC region, Baysal said decisions can no longer be based solely on the price of steel and its shipping cost. Traders must also consider insurance, changing transit times and uncertainty over whether cargoes will arrive as planned. He stated that he expects logistics to remain a significant issue. Baysal said geopolitical freight premiums are not necessarily permanent. What has changed more durably, in his view, is the need to account for geopolitical risks in every transaction. Shipping routes, additional premiums and the working capital tied up in delayed cargoes have become part of traders’ calculations.

High interest rates weigh on US steel demand

Baysal pointed out that higher interest rates are weighing on US commercial and residential construction and on demand for steel products used in those sectors. However, infrastructure, data centers, energy projects and manufacturing investment continue to consume steel. He noted that large infrastructure and data center projects are supplied mainly by domestic mills.

Against this background, Baysal said traders favor disciplined purchasing and low inventories. Back-to-back transactions are more attractive than speculative stockholding when financing is expensive and tariffs, quotas, freight and regional market conditions can change.

Capacity-demand gap and trade measures seen as interconnected risks

Although steel remains a cyclical industry, Baysal said its underlying trade structure has changed. Capacity growth, trade barriers and geopolitical risks have fragmented the market, requiring traders to identify opportunities in individual regions rather than rely on price differences alone.

Looking ahead to 2027, he described the gap between steel capacity and demand, and the trade measures that may result from it, as interconnected risks.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Rising costs and trade barriers put pressure on raw material flows

Jens Björkman from Stena Metal International and chairman of the raw material suppliers committee shared the committee’s assessments of current dynamics and difficulties in global raw material markets during a panel session.

Mr. Björkman stated that higher freight, energy and financing costs, together with potential restrictions on scrap exports, are putting pressure on the steelmaking raw material trade. Presenting the findings of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee, Björkman said coking coal prices had risen by around 60 percent within a few months. He also pointed to strong raw material demand in the US during the first part of 2026 and growth in India. In Europe, in contrast, high energy costs have added to the challenges facing the industry, he stated.

Low Rhine water levels disrupt European scrap and steel movements

Björkman said the low water levels of the River Rhine, comparable to those seen in 2018, have disrupted movements of scrap and steel in Europe. Some material has remained in inventories instead of reaching its destinations, causing business to be postponed. He described European steel capacity utilization of around 65 percent as unsustainable.

Regarding coking coal, Björkman said the summer price surge was driven particularly by conditions in China and had also lifted Australian prices. Chinese demand has since eased somewhat, he said. Although he cited an increase of around six percent in Indian production this year, he does not expect it to offset weaker Chinese demand. Björkman therefore sees a slightly negative outlook for coking coal prices in the coming months and said the earlier surge may prove temporary in the short term.

Trade disruptions affect scrap purchases in India and Pakistan

Turning to import scrap markets in India and Pakistan, Björkman said disruptions to trade flows have had a substantial effect on purchasing. Buyers who previously could purchase smaller quantities with shorter lead times have had to consider larger volumes and longer delivery periods. Higher freight and financing costs make those changes more difficult, he explained. He added that demand for European material has increased.

The chairman of the raw material suppliers committee expressed concern about proposed changes affecting EU shipments of ferrous and non-ferrous material to non-OECD countries. North Africa and South Asia are significant and consistent buyers of European material, he said. In his view, restrictions could affect both their ability to purchase scrap from the EU and recycling activity within Europe.

Financing raw material trade has also become more difficult throughout the supply chain, according to Björkman. Higher interest rates, freight costs and raw material prices are encouraging companies to keep lead times short, buy according to immediate requirements and avoid accumulating large inventories.

Scrap to remain principal raw material for EAF-based producers

On the future raw material mix for electric arc furnace-based producers, Björkman said scrap will remain the principal input. HBI and DRI can supplement scrap, but he does not expect them to replace it. Their cost is a constraint in many regions, while energy availability influences where they can be produced. Björkman also questioned whether Europe could depend on supplies from the GCC given regional and political uncertainties.

Trade barriers seen as key risk for scrap market in 2027

Björkman said Europe has sufficient scrap for its own steelmakers and has opposed adding further restrictions and administrative requirements to its export trade.

Asked about the risks facing the market in 2027, he identified increasing trade barriers as a particular concern for scrap suppliers. Björkman expects trade to become more regional, with European exporters facing additional requirements.

The global long steel products market has been off balance recently, and the general situation has gotten marginally worse. One of the leading indicators of the worsening in the market is that the current Turkish spread between import scrap and rebar prices is now the lowest value observed since August 2017. The number shows a downward movement of $55/mt from the peak observed in August this year. All in all, global consumption and demand remain strong. Despite the tariff war, the global long steel industry is in a better situation now – with the exception of Turkey and the MENA region – since the first half of 2008. Ferrous scrap prices are strong and other raw material prices are holding their ground, thus making steel prices stable as well.

Billet and slab prices currently driven by oversupply

Billet and slab prices are currently driven by oversupply, while ferrous scrap remains available and at higher cost levels. Hence, there is a certain rebalancing in the market.

Difficult to envision imports to Canada after latest safeguard decision

The steel trade continues to become more and more regional every day. It is very difficult to envision anybody intending to import steel into Canada following the latest safeguard decision. There is no doubt that prices should be firming up in the Canadian market as a consequence. Since Canada is the largest supplier of steel to the US market, the situation should also have a similar impact on steel prices in the US.

Demand in US is satisfactory, though buyers also awaiting decisions on tariffs

Demand in the US market is the same and satisfactory, while supply is also catching up. Lead times are getting shorter. However, due to the year-end, less material is being purchased for stocks. The buyers and sellers in the market are all waiting to see whether President Trump will remove the extra 25 percent tariff on Turkish steel or not. And what will happen to the 25 percent steel tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and those countries’ 25 percent tariff on US steel?

China’s winter steel output reduction a positive for the global market

The winter heating season in China is running from November through March and will withdraw exportable tonnages of steel. The Chinese steel output reduction over the winter season is certainly a positive for the global market, though no price changes have been observed because of that yet. Chinese producers are out of the international market and long product exports from China are very low, and in the coming weeks this is not going to change. Ocean freight rates have moved upwards, increasing CFR prices but not allowing any increases on FOB basis.

Prices in EU expected to firm up towards end of safeguard measure period

The EU mills are earning good money despite imports from Turkey. On the other hand, the first 100 days of implementation under the safeguard measures in the European Union are already over. Prices in the EU market are also expected to be firming up towards the end of the term. The quota for rebars is going down gradually and it looks like imports could become risky by early January. That said, there are some expectations that the EU may extend the current import quota system in November to last beyond the current period which ends in February 2019.

Weaker euro and low river levels make imports to EU more difficult

What makes imports to the EU more difficult now is the weakening of the euro and low water levels on all EU rivers, which has caused freight increases of up to three times the original rate and higher. With the winter season ahead, buyers are reluctant to commit for more imports this year.

Turkish mills suffer domestically, though EU remains a solid market for their exports

Lately, the EU has been a solid market for Turkish mills to replace the quantity previously shipped to the US. However, Turkish mills still suffer from very bad domestic market conditions. Under such market dynamics, it is pretty difficult for Turkish mills to pay the current prices for scrap.

Ex-EU scrap flow hindered by shipment problems on the Rhine

On the other hand, scrap flows have been satisfactory as the pricing is elevated. The problematically low water levels of the Rhine river have hampered logistics in the waterways to export terminals, and this has withheld some exports. Recent rail issues in iron ore mining in Australia may also keep iron ore pricing aloft.

More difficult now to export excess production to the global market

The competition in the market is getting tougher. It is reasonable inside internal markets like the US, EU, and China; but it is getting more difficult to place excess production in the global market because customers are not in a hurry as they do not foresee any reason to purchase quickly. Competition is particularly strong in reinforcing bars and billets.

Regional differences in market conditions

As trade keeps getting more and more regional nowadays, the market conditions show differences depending on the region. Although the market situation can be described as fluctuating and unstable in general due to trade interruptions and imbalances, stability is observed in the US domestic market, and also for steelmaking raw materials.

Outlook remains satisfactory for next quarter

Despite the fact that political decisions can impact international flows in a way that it is impossible to foresee as all can change with one tweet, the outlook for the next quarter is still satisfactory.

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