The tribunal concluded that allowing the measures to expire would likely result in injury to Canada’s domestic rebar industry and therefore ordered their continuation. Under the decision, Canada will continue applying antidumping duties on reinforcing bar imports from China, South Korea and Turkey, and countervailing duties on rebar imports from China.

The current antidumping duties on rebar from the countries in question are at

• 26.6 percent for China,
• 25.1 percent for South Korea
• 6.5 percent for Turkey,

while subsidy rate is at 6.1 percent for China.

The products currently fall under Harmonized System (HS) tariff classification numbers

• 7213.10.00.11,
• 7213.10.00.12,
• 7213.10.00.13,
• 7213.10.00.90,
• 7214.20.00.11,
• 7214.20.00.12,
• 7214.20.00.13,
• 7214.20.00.14,
• 7214.20.00.21,
• 7214.20.00.22,
• 7214.20.00.23,
• 7214.20.00.24,
• 7214.20.00.31,
• 7214.20.00.32,
• 7214.20.00.33,
• 7214.20.00.34,
• 7214.20.00.90,
• 7215.90.00.20,
• 7215.90.00.30,
• 7227.90.00.50,
• 7228.30.00.51,
• 7228.30.00.52,
• 7228.30.00.53.

The DOC determined that Tosyali Iron Steel Industry Algeria made sales of subject merchandise at less than normal value during the period of review. The DOC has determined a weighted-average dumping margin of 127.32 percent for the company and all other Algerian producers and exporters.

According to the preliminary determination, the weighted-average dumping margin was also determined at 127.32 percent.

The regulation sets the total annual tariff-rate quota at 18,345,922 mt, while imports within the quota will remain duty-free, while volumes exceeding the quota will be subject to a 50 percent tariff, a sharp increase compared to the previous 25 percent safeguard duty.

This measure applies broadly to all third countries, including those with free trade agreements or preferential access, reinforcing the EU’s efforts to prevent trade diversion and protect domestic producers. However, imports originating from Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are excluded from the scope of the measure. The European Commission also retains the authority to expand the scope to include downstream steel products in future reviews.

The tariff-rate quotas will be administered on a quarterly basis, aiming to prevent import surges within short periods. During the first year of implementation, unused quotas will be carried over to subsequent quarters. However, the commission may later adjust this rule depending on market conditions, including import pressure and supply shortages.

The European Commission will:

• review the product scope regularly,
• assess the effectiveness of the measure every three years,
• potentially adjust quota volumes within a range of 14.4-22.2 million mt depending on market developments.

Annual volumes of tariff rate quotas for some steel products are listed below.

• Merchant Bars and Light Sections  :  881,735 mtons
• Rebars    : 844,526 mtons
• Wire Rods   : 1,569,532 mtons

In a joint statement, the European Parliament, the Council and the European Commission underlined that the EU has taken unprecedented steps since the start of the war to reduce its economic dependence on Russia and prevent its economic activity from supporting Russia’s war efforts.

However, the institutions acknowledged that some dependencies still remain, particularly for certain steel products that are not yet fully restricted. Limited volumes of Russian steel imports are therefore still permitted under transitional arrangements until September 30, 2028, with quotas that decrease annually. The EU confirmed that these measures are designed to ensure a complete phase-out of remaining Russian steel imports by the 2028 deadline.

The DOC has determined that revocation of the antidumping duty and countervailing duty orders on the given products from Mexico and Turkey would likely to lead to the continuation or reoccurrence of dumping, countervailable subsidies and material injury.

The estimated weighted-average dumping margin for Mexico are at 20.58 percent and 66.70 percent, while subsidy rates are 6.58 percent and 7.71 percent for Turkish companies.

The products subject to the orders are currently classifiable in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) under subheadings 7213.10.0000, 7214.20.0000, and 7228.30.8010.

The DOC found that countervailable subsidies were provided to producers and exporters of rebar from Algeria during the period of review from January 1, 2024, through December 31, 2024.

The final subsidy rate is at 72.94 percent only for Tosyali Iron Steel Industry Algeria SPA and all other Algerian exporters, in line with the preliminary determination.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings

• 7213.10.0000,
• 7214.20.0000,
• 7228.30.8010

of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS). The subject merchandise may also enter under other HTSUS subheadings including

• 7221.00.0017,
• 7221.00.0018,
• 7221.00.0030,
• 7221.00.0045,
• 7222.11.0001,
• 7222.11.0057,
• 7222.11.0059,
• 7222.30.0001,
• 7227.20.0080,
• 7227.90.6030,
• 7227.90.6035,
• 7227.90.6040,
• 7228.20.1000,
• 7228.60.6000.

In addition, the DOC determined an estimated weighted-average antidumping margin of 127.32 percent on the given products for Algeria, based on the investigation period from April 1, 2024, through March 31, 2025.

There have been no signs of improvement in the global long steel products market. On the contrary, the current business environment has, unfortunately, deteriorated rather than improved in terms of the supply and demand balance. The wars, particularly in Iran and Ukraine, have significantly exacerbated existing disruptions across global supply chains. What we have seen looks more like a supply-side shock than a demand recovery: higher energy, electricity and freight costs have pushed prices upward, and these increases have so far been widely accepted by customers as inevitable.

Many economies would enter recessionary territory if ceasefire in Iran war fails to hold

So much will depend on whether the ceasefire just announced in the Iran war will hold. If it does not hold and should energy prices remain elevated, there would a substantial risk that many economies will enter recessionary territory, with wide-ranging and potentially severe consequences. Transportation costs have already risen considerably, while uncertainty surrounding future demand has increased across all major markets. At the same time, there is a noticeable shift toward greater protectionism, further complicating international trade dynamics.

US scrap export volumes decline, UK shifts to containerized scrap exports to Turkey

US ferrous scrap export volumes are in decline due to more domestic consumption and difficult prices in Asian markets, while the UK is shifting to containerized exports to Turkey.

On the bright side, increased pre-ordering and restocking activity observed

Despite the prevailing challenges, there are some positive aspects in the global market. Heightened uncertainty is prompting contractors involved in confirmed construction projects to secure supply in advance, leading to increased pre-ordering in order to mitigate the risk of further cost escalations. Additionally, in an inflationary environment, apparent demand often exceeds actual demand, as businesses tend to build up inventories as a precautionary measure. This dynamic is likely to result in a degree of restocking activity, providing short-term support to market demand.

Three distinct regional dynamics seen in competition in global market

Three distinct regional market dynamics can be identified in terms of the level of competition in the global market, which remains high, though it varies across regions. Broadly speaking, in the United States, competition is largely domestic, with local producers competing primarily within the internal market. In the European Union, the landscape is more mixed, characterized by intense domestic competition alongside a limited presence of imports from third countries. In contrast, in the rest of the world, competition is significantly more intense, with global players actively competing across multiple markets.

Rising costs of energy exerting pressure across the industry

At the same time, rising energy costs – particularly impacting steel producers – along with increasing scrap prices driven by higher oil and transportation costs, have exerted additional pressure across the industry. These factors are contributing to heightened competition globally, as producers strive to maintain margins and market share in an increasingly challenging cost environment. The market has accepted cost-driven price increases up to a certain degree. The uncertainty is in the second-order consequences. As with any supply-side shock, the market may have to rebuild around new supply routes, new energy costs and changing raw material availability, and it is still too early to judge how the wider economy will react. It will be necessary to wait and see what impact the ceasefire in the Iran war – provided it holds – will have on easing the surges in costs and if it will bring about a badly-needed return to something approaching normality for business and trade.

Current market environment very unstable, dependent on US war-related policy decisions

The current market environment can be best described as highly unstable and deeply influenced by geopolitical developments. In particular, the global economy has been increasingly dependent on policy decisions made by the United States administration in relation to the war against Iran, though some hope is now offered by the implementation of the ceasefire. Recent developments have intensified market volatility, with rising energy prices, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures creating a highly uncertain outlook.  In this context, market conditions remain fragile and unpredictable, with future stability largely contingent on geopolitical outcomes and policy direction in the coming months.

Outlook for next quarter remains uncertain

The outlook for the next quarter remains uncertain, primarily due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market direction will largely depend on how the situation evolves in the near term.

If the ceasefire holds…

Should the ceasefire hold, an improvement in demand can be expected, leading to a more positive outlook and gradual market stabilization. However, were the ceasefire to break down and war to be renewed, the risk of a significant economic slowdown will increase. In such a scenario, many economies could enter recessionary conditions, with potential project delays or cancellations and an overall challenging business environment. Other than the military-industrial complex, all other industrial sectors would be negatively affected.

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The DOC has determined that certain producers/exporters of reinforcing bars from Turkey made sales at prices at less than normal value during the period of review between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024.

The DOC has calculated a weighted-average dumping margin of 18.87 percent for Colakoglu Metalurji in line with the preliminary results.

The DOC had rescinded this review with respect to ICDAS Celik Enerji Tersane ve Ulasim Sanayi A.S. and Kaptan Demir Celik Endüstrisi ve Ticaret A.S. as the companies had no entries of the subject merchandise during the period of review.

The subject merchandise is classifiable in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) primarily under item numbers 7213.10.0000, 7214.20.0000, and 7228.30.8010.

The investigation covers the period from 2021 through the first half of 2025, and over the next 30 days the Ministry of Economy will be registering the opinions of the interested parties; over 60 days from the start of the investigation on March 10 the ministry will be looking into the comments and information regarding the case.

The antidumping case covers the imports of the steel bars under the following codes:

• 7213 10 00 00,
• 7213 91 10 00,
• 7213 91 41 00,
• 7213 91 49 00,
• 7213 91 70 00,
• 7213 91 90 00,
• 7213 99 10 00,
• 7213 99 90 00,
• 7214 20 00 00,
• 7214 91 10 00,
• 7214 91 90 00,
• 7214 99 10 00,
• 7214 99 50 00,
• 7214 99 95 00,
• 7227 20 00 00,
• 7227 90 10 00,
• 7228 20 91 00.

L-shaped angles according to codes 7216 21 00 00 and 7216 50 10 00 are also under investigation.

In December, DOC published in the Federal Register its preliminary determination in the LTFV investigation of rebar from Algeria, inviting parties to comment. On January 20, 2026, the case petitioner, the Rebar Trade Action Coalition (RTAC), submitted a case brief urging DOC to continue relying on adverse facts available, to determine the dumping margin of the non-responsive mandatory respondent, Tosyali Iron Steel Industry Algeria SPA (Tosyali), make no changes to the dumping margins determined in the Preliminary Determination for Tosyali and all other producers and exporters.

No other party submitted a case brief regarding the Preliminary Determination, and no party submitted a rebuttal brief. As DOC received no other substantive comments requesting consideration of changes, DOC agrees with the petitioner that no changes are warranted. As a result, the Preliminary Determination has been adopted in this Final Determination, and no decision memorandum was expected.

The commission has found that the expiration of the antidumping measures in respect of exports of rebar from China would lead, or would be likely to lead, to a continuation of, or a recurrence of, the dumping and the material injury that the antidumping measures are intended to prevent. Accordingly, the commission has recommended that the duties continue and new duty rates for the parties subject to the review be revised as follows:

Baowu Group Echeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd

• Current rate of duty (%) : 19.0 combination
• New rate of duty (%) : Floor price

All other exporters

• Current rate of duty (%) : 19.0 combination
• New rate of duty (%) : 23.7 combination

The products, in various diameters up to and including 50 mm, currently fall under the following Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers

• 7213.10.00.42,
• 7214.20.00.47,
• 7227.90.10.69,
• 7227.90.90.01,
• 7227.90.90.02,
• 7227.90.90.04,
• 7228.30.10.70,
• 7228.30.90.40,
• 7228.60.10.72.