The DOC has determined that revocation of the antidumping duty and countervailing duty orders on the given products from Mexico and Turkey would likely to lead to the continuation or reoccurrence of dumping, countervailable subsidies and material injury.

The estimated weighted-average dumping margin for Mexico are at 20.58 percent and 66.70 percent, while subsidy rates are 6.58 percent and 7.71 percent for Turkish companies.

The products subject to the orders are currently classifiable in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) under subheadings 7213.10.0000, 7214.20.0000, and 7228.30.8010.

The DOC found that countervailable subsidies were provided to producers and exporters of rebar from Algeria during the period of review from January 1, 2024, through December 31, 2024.

The final subsidy rate is at 72.94 percent only for Tosyali Iron Steel Industry Algeria SPA and all other Algerian exporters, in line with the preliminary determination.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings

• 7213.10.0000,
• 7214.20.0000,
• 7228.30.8010

of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS). The subject merchandise may also enter under other HTSUS subheadings including

• 7221.00.0017,
• 7221.00.0018,
• 7221.00.0030,
• 7221.00.0045,
• 7222.11.0001,
• 7222.11.0057,
• 7222.11.0059,
• 7222.30.0001,
• 7227.20.0080,
• 7227.90.6030,
• 7227.90.6035,
• 7227.90.6040,
• 7228.20.1000,
• 7228.60.6000.

In addition, the DOC determined an estimated weighted-average antidumping margin of 127.32 percent on the given products for Algeria, based on the investigation period from April 1, 2024, through March 31, 2025.

There have been no signs of improvement in the global long steel products market. On the contrary, the current business environment has, unfortunately, deteriorated rather than improved in terms of the supply and demand balance. The wars, particularly in Iran and Ukraine, have significantly exacerbated existing disruptions across global supply chains. What we have seen looks more like a supply-side shock than a demand recovery: higher energy, electricity and freight costs have pushed prices upward, and these increases have so far been widely accepted by customers as inevitable.

Many economies would enter recessionary territory if ceasefire in Iran war fails to hold

So much will depend on whether the ceasefire just announced in the Iran war will hold. If it does not hold and should energy prices remain elevated, there would a substantial risk that many economies will enter recessionary territory, with wide-ranging and potentially severe consequences. Transportation costs have already risen considerably, while uncertainty surrounding future demand has increased across all major markets. At the same time, there is a noticeable shift toward greater protectionism, further complicating international trade dynamics.

US scrap export volumes decline, UK shifts to containerized scrap exports to Turkey

US ferrous scrap export volumes are in decline due to more domestic consumption and difficult prices in Asian markets, while the UK is shifting to containerized exports to Turkey.

On the bright side, increased pre-ordering and restocking activity observed

Despite the prevailing challenges, there are some positive aspects in the global market. Heightened uncertainty is prompting contractors involved in confirmed construction projects to secure supply in advance, leading to increased pre-ordering in order to mitigate the risk of further cost escalations. Additionally, in an inflationary environment, apparent demand often exceeds actual demand, as businesses tend to build up inventories as a precautionary measure. This dynamic is likely to result in a degree of restocking activity, providing short-term support to market demand.

Three distinct regional dynamics seen in competition in global market

Three distinct regional market dynamics can be identified in terms of the level of competition in the global market, which remains high, though it varies across regions. Broadly speaking, in the United States, competition is largely domestic, with local producers competing primarily within the internal market. In the European Union, the landscape is more mixed, characterized by intense domestic competition alongside a limited presence of imports from third countries. In contrast, in the rest of the world, competition is significantly more intense, with global players actively competing across multiple markets.

Rising costs of energy exerting pressure across the industry

At the same time, rising energy costs – particularly impacting steel producers – along with increasing scrap prices driven by higher oil and transportation costs, have exerted additional pressure across the industry. These factors are contributing to heightened competition globally, as producers strive to maintain margins and market share in an increasingly challenging cost environment. The market has accepted cost-driven price increases up to a certain degree. The uncertainty is in the second-order consequences. As with any supply-side shock, the market may have to rebuild around new supply routes, new energy costs and changing raw material availability, and it is still too early to judge how the wider economy will react. It will be necessary to wait and see what impact the ceasefire in the Iran war – provided it holds – will have on easing the surges in costs and if it will bring about a badly-needed return to something approaching normality for business and trade.

Current market environment very unstable, dependent on US war-related policy decisions

The current market environment can be best described as highly unstable and deeply influenced by geopolitical developments. In particular, the global economy has been increasingly dependent on policy decisions made by the United States administration in relation to the war against Iran, though some hope is now offered by the implementation of the ceasefire. Recent developments have intensified market volatility, with rising energy prices, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures creating a highly uncertain outlook.  In this context, market conditions remain fragile and unpredictable, with future stability largely contingent on geopolitical outcomes and policy direction in the coming months.

Outlook for next quarter remains uncertain

The outlook for the next quarter remains uncertain, primarily due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market direction will largely depend on how the situation evolves in the near term.

If the ceasefire holds…

Should the ceasefire hold, an improvement in demand can be expected, leading to a more positive outlook and gradual market stabilization. However, were the ceasefire to break down and war to be renewed, the risk of a significant economic slowdown will increase. In such a scenario, many economies could enter recessionary conditions, with potential project delays or cancellations and an overall challenging business environment. Other than the military-industrial complex, all other industrial sectors would be negatively affected.

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The DOC has determined that certain producers/exporters of reinforcing bars from Turkey made sales at prices at less than normal value during the period of review between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024.

The DOC has calculated a weighted-average dumping margin of 18.87 percent for Colakoglu Metalurji in line with the preliminary results.

The DOC had rescinded this review with respect to ICDAS Celik Enerji Tersane ve Ulasim Sanayi A.S. and Kaptan Demir Celik Endüstrisi ve Ticaret A.S. as the companies had no entries of the subject merchandise during the period of review.

The subject merchandise is classifiable in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) primarily under item numbers 7213.10.0000, 7214.20.0000, and 7228.30.8010.

The investigation covers the period from 2021 through the first half of 2025, and over the next 30 days the Ministry of Economy will be registering the opinions of the interested parties; over 60 days from the start of the investigation on March 10 the ministry will be looking into the comments and information regarding the case.

The antidumping case covers the imports of the steel bars under the following codes:

• 7213 10 00 00,
• 7213 91 10 00,
• 7213 91 41 00,
• 7213 91 49 00,
• 7213 91 70 00,
• 7213 91 90 00,
• 7213 99 10 00,
• 7213 99 90 00,
• 7214 20 00 00,
• 7214 91 10 00,
• 7214 91 90 00,
• 7214 99 10 00,
• 7214 99 50 00,
• 7214 99 95 00,
• 7227 20 00 00,
• 7227 90 10 00,
• 7228 20 91 00.

L-shaped angles according to codes 7216 21 00 00 and 7216 50 10 00 are also under investigation.

In December, DOC published in the Federal Register its preliminary determination in the LTFV investigation of rebar from Algeria, inviting parties to comment. On January 20, 2026, the case petitioner, the Rebar Trade Action Coalition (RTAC), submitted a case brief urging DOC to continue relying on adverse facts available, to determine the dumping margin of the non-responsive mandatory respondent, Tosyali Iron Steel Industry Algeria SPA (Tosyali), make no changes to the dumping margins determined in the Preliminary Determination for Tosyali and all other producers and exporters.

No other party submitted a case brief regarding the Preliminary Determination, and no party submitted a rebuttal brief. As DOC received no other substantive comments requesting consideration of changes, DOC agrees with the petitioner that no changes are warranted. As a result, the Preliminary Determination has been adopted in this Final Determination, and no decision memorandum was expected.

The commission has found that the expiration of the antidumping measures in respect of exports of rebar from China would lead, or would be likely to lead, to a continuation of, or a recurrence of, the dumping and the material injury that the antidumping measures are intended to prevent. Accordingly, the commission has recommended that the duties continue and new duty rates for the parties subject to the review be revised as follows:

Baowu Group Echeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd

• Current rate of duty (%) : 19.0 combination
• New rate of duty (%) : Floor price

All other exporters

• Current rate of duty (%) : 19.0 combination
• New rate of duty (%) : 23.7 combination

The products, in various diameters up to and including 50 mm, currently fall under the following Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers

• 7213.10.00.42,
• 7214.20.00.47,
• 7227.90.10.69,
• 7227.90.90.01,
• 7227.90.90.02,
• 7227.90.90.04,
• 7228.30.10.70,
• 7228.30.90.40,
• 7228.60.10.72.

Demand remains weak in the global long steel products market, both structurally and seasonally. Buyers are cautious, operating on a hand-to-mouth basis and are still delaying medium- or long-term commitments. At the same time, supply pressure remains high. China has finally shown a significant production decline (with 2025 output down to 960 million mt, below one billion mt for the first time since 2019), but its exports surged to a record 119 million mt.

Geopolitics pull FX and commodity markets in different directions, causing uncertainty

Geopolitical tensions are clearly growing and are tearing the foreign exchange (FX) and commodity markets in different directions, increasing uncertainty for both mills and traders. This is feeding buyers’ wait-and-see stance on the demand side, while keeping input costs – especially scrap – more supported than finished steel products.

Demand still weak in EU, imports slowed down a lot by CBAM uncertainties

Demand in the EU market is still weak. Not only seasonal conditions but also uncertainties regarding political decisions are holding buyers back from making bigger commitments. Despite solid order books, construction companies are not flooding the market to avoid increases. The absolute uncertainty about quotas, CBAM, etc., has slowed down import volumes a lot. Only a few quotas were used up completely on January 1, which is proof of the fears of importers and traders.

US commercial construction expectations weaken for 2026

In the US, commercial construction expectations are down this year, with five of 17 market segments showing negative outlooks. Data centers (57 percent net positive) and power projects (34 percent net positive) remain strong. Although 63 percent of firms are planning new hires in 2026, over 80 percent are struggling to find qualified workers. Tariffs have affected 70 percent of contractors, and 63 percent report project delays or cancellations due to funding issues and rising costs. Top concerns for 2026 include the economic slowdown, workforce shortages, rising labor costs and material price volatility due to imports.

US residential construction segment also shows weakening, US mills in strong position

Residential construction in the US is not any better. Multi-family housing starts dropped 25.9 percent in October last year compared to September and were down 10.8 percent year on year, falling to their lowest level since 2020, according to the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Overall, housing starts in the US in October fell 4.6 percent from September and 7.8 percent from October 2024. Developers face challenges ranging from high inventory to high interest rates. Imports face tough competition with domestic products having a 50 percent duty advantage and with antidumping and countervailing duties on most commodities. Domestic mills are in the best position with high prices and practically no competition.

Seasonal supply tightness boosts scrap market, thereby providing support for longs market

The ferrous scrap market is strong mainly due to the seasonal supply tightness and provides some support for the long steel products market.

Competition at high levels but is not on a level playing field due to trade protectionism

There is high competition in the market. That said, with all the trade measures and tariffs, there is no fair competition anymore. It is just about searching for opportunities.

Market outlook slightly better but remains tough, some cautious optimism for 2026

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable. The outlook is slightly better due to seasonal reasons but remains tough. Despite all this and everchanging trade restrictions, we are still cautiously optimistic for 2026.

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The DOC has preliminarily determined that countervailable subsidies are being provided to Colakoglu Metalurji A.S. during the period of review. The DOC has preliminarily calculated a net countervailable subsidy rate of 1.84 percent for the company. In addition, the DOC is rescinding this review with respect to Kaptan Demir Celik Endustrisi ve Ticaret A.S. and Kaptan Metal Dis Ticaret ve Nakliyat A.S. as local producers timely withdrew their request.
The final results of the review are expected to be announced within 120 days of the publication of the preliminary results.

The current antidumping duties on reinforcing bar imported from the countries in question are at 26.6 percent for China, 25.1 percent for South Korea and 6.5 percent for Turkey, while subsidy rate is at 6.1 percent for China.

The Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT) will now conduct an inquiry to determine whether the expiry of its order is likely to result in injury to the Canadian industry and has announced that it will issue its decision no later than June 17, 2026.

The products under review currently fall under Harmonized System (HS) tariff classification numberslisted below:

• 7213.10.00.11,
• 7213.10.00.12,
• 7213.10.00.13,
• 7213.10.00.90,
• 7214.20.00.11,
• 7214.20.00.12,
• 7214.20.00.13,
• 7214.20.00.14,
• 7214.20.00.21,
• 7214.20.00.22,
• 7214.20.00.23,
• 7214.20.00.24,
• 7214.20.00.31,
• 7214.20.00.32,
• 7214.20.00.33,
• 7214.20.00.34,
• 7214.20.00.90,
• 7215.90.00.20,
• 7215.90.00.30,
• 7227.90.00.50,
• 7228.30.00.51,
• 7228.30.00.52,
• 7228.30.00.53