The tribunal concluded that allowing the measures to expire would likely result in injury to Canada’s domestic rebar industry and therefore ordered their continuation. Under the decision, Canada will continue applying antidumping duties on reinforcing bar imports from China, South Korea and Turkey, and countervailing duties on rebar imports from China.

The current antidumping duties on rebar from the countries in question are at

• 26.6 percent for China,
• 25.1 percent for South Korea
• 6.5 percent for Turkey,

while subsidy rate is at 6.1 percent for China.

The products currently fall under Harmonized System (HS) tariff classification numbers

• 7213.10.00.11,
• 7213.10.00.12,
• 7213.10.00.13,
• 7213.10.00.90,
• 7214.20.00.11,
• 7214.20.00.12,
• 7214.20.00.13,
• 7214.20.00.14,
• 7214.20.00.21,
• 7214.20.00.22,
• 7214.20.00.23,
• 7214.20.00.24,
• 7214.20.00.31,
• 7214.20.00.32,
• 7214.20.00.33,
• 7214.20.00.34,
• 7214.20.00.90,
• 7215.90.00.20,
• 7215.90.00.30,
• 7227.90.00.50,
• 7228.30.00.51,
• 7228.30.00.52,
• 7228.30.00.53.

According to a statement released by the Department of Finance, Canada will extend its steel tariff-rate quota regime for imports from non-CUSMA partners until June 27, 2027, while the existing horizontal tariff relief for eligible steel and aluminum products from the US, as well as for eligible steel products subject to derivative tariffs, will be extended until June 30, 2027. The Department of Finance Canada stated that the extension will provide producers and importers with greater business predictability and longer-term certainty, while helping the government defend the Canadian steel industry and its workers against the impact of trade flows driven by excess capacity and unfair market conditions.

Under the current framework, quota levels will remain based on 20 percent of 2024 import volumes for partners without a free trade agreement with Canada and 75 percent of 2024 import volumes for partners that have a free trade agreement in force with Canada, while imports exceeding the quota limits will continue to be subject to a 50 percent tariff. Canada will also continue to exempt the US and Mexico from the steel tariff-rate quotas.

Following the planned extension, the government intends to consider an allocations-based approach for the administration of quotas for certain product classes, with producers and importers expected to be invited to share their views as part of the ongoing review of the tariff-rate quota framework.

The overall business environment in the global long steel products market remains relatively stable. However, regional differences have become more pronounced than ever. Protectionist measures in the United States, combined with the implementation of CBAM in Europe and the upcoming reduction of EU import quotas, are reshaping trade patterns and market dynamics.

Ongoing conflicts continue to create uncertainty and raise costs

At the same time, the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to create uncertainty, disrupt trade flows and influence supply-demand balances across multiple regions. Higher oil and natural gas prices have increased transportation and production costs, while steel availability from Gulf region suppliers has become extremely limited. Marine insurance costs for cargoes have also risen due to increased geopolitical risks. Expectations that these disruptions will be short-lived have largely disappeared. As a result, many distributors and stockists are holding onto inventories amid concerns about future supply availability and stock replacement costs. Consequently, the market remains highly fragmented, with conditions varying considerably depending on geography.

EU market sees last-minute import buying ahead of new quota system on July 1

In the European Union and in the United Kingdom, the market is now starting to search for a new equilibrium because of the changes in the import regime from July 1. During the past few weeks, some last-minute import buying has been taking place, as buyers and traders try to position themselves before the new quota system enters into effect. After this, market players will have to adjust their strategy to the supply which is actually available in the market. There will still be imports, of course, and there will still be competition, but buyers will have to build their strategies around actual market availability, not around the cheapest theoretical import offer.

Scrap prices remain strong despite weak demand

There is no demand to support the continuing strength of scrap prices, but it seems that prices will stay where they were before the Eid holiday or they may come down by a few dollars to motivate Turkish buyers to resume buying. Deep sea scrap prices for Turkey remain some way above US$400/mt CFR despite weak Turkish rebar sales, while the strong scrap prices provide support for finished product prices. Meanwhile, Turkish mills do not expect much long product demand from the EU because of the new quotas to be introduced shortly in the region. Regional differences will certainly create different results for different regions and producers, especially for those who source scrap from the US and the EU and need to export their products.

Turkey’s production costs may increase, political situation to impact investment

Turkish mills were enjoying cheap energy costs due to the rainfall during the winter season. This will most probably end when temperatures start rising and the country starts using cooling systems. With the political turmoil in the country, investments will slow down, which will also be another factor causing demand for long steel to slacken.

Demand for semis due to Iran’s absence contributes to higher long steel costs

Demand for semis due to Iran’s absence is another factor contributing to increased costs of long products. In this context, Chinese exports of slabs and billets increased to around 900,000 mt in the January-April period this year.

Long steel market in Germany remains very weak

The market in Germany is still very weak. After the shockwave of higher energy prices (the impact of the Iran war) and price increases for all steel products and for logistics, many projects were put on hold. Consequently, cut and bend prices did not move up but are on the way back down. Benders are desperately looking for orders at somehow manageable prices. German and Polish mills have had to adjust prices down as well, otherwise benders do not buy. So, there has been a drop of around €30/mt in prices despite the seasonal improvement which reflects the level of investment in Germany right now. Better prices for benders from imports are practically not available anymore. Reduced quotas, CBAM and high ocean freight rates make business very difficult. New building permits went down by 10-15 percent and industrial projects by 20-30 percent. There is not even any input from the public sector.

Mixed bag of positive and negative factors in US market

In the United States, inflation remains a concern, and expectations for interest rate cuts have largely been pushed back, with higher rates now expected to continue into 2027. This has negatively impacted housing and construction activity, keeping demand relatively subdued. Meanwhile, steel imports remain restricted by the 50 percent Section 232 tariffs, higher freight costs and logistical uncertainties. Reduced import competition continues to support a gradual increase in domestic steel prices despite overall moderate demand. On the other hand, domestic steel prices are moving closer to import parity, which may improve future import opportunities. In addition, inventories remain relatively low, and continued investments in AI infrastructure, energy and industrial projects are providing some support for steel demand. The primary area of growth remains AI infrastructure and data center investments, although this business is largely supplied directly by domestic mills and these big projects are for consumption of reinforcing steel 12-18 months from now. However, these positives are still overshadowed by geopolitical uncertainty, high interest rates and weak construction activity.

Some positive developments in terms of investments

One of the key positives in the marketplace is the substantial level of investment being directed toward infrastructure projects, energy-related developments and data centers, all of which generate significant demand for reinforcing steel products. In addition, many governments in developed economies are increasingly focused on addressing housing affordability challenges. Policies aimed at expanding residential construction could support additional demand for long steel products in the medium term. Another positive factor for certain markets is the implementation of measures designed to protect domestic industries from unfairly priced imports. While these measures support local producers, they also reduce market access opportunities for exporting countries, highlighting the differing impacts across regions. There are areas like the Balkan and Baltic regions where demand is really great and investment in infrastructure is huge.

China’s crude steel output decreases, its iron ore imports increase

China’s crude steel production decreased by 4.1 percent in January-April, but its iron ore imports increased by eight percent to 418 million mt in the same period, and port stocks are close to 160 million mt. This is a very strange situation: steel production is characterized by weakness, but iron ore imports remain strong.

Divergence between open and protected markets

Competition remains extremely intense in international markets that are open to imports. Excess production capacity in several regions continues to put pressure on prices and margins. In contrast, markets that benefit from trade protection measures or restricted import access generally experience more balanced competitive conditions.

Current market status stable and challenging, outlook varies according to region

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as stable and challenging. While demand remains generally subdued in many regions, market participants have largely adapted to current conditions and no major short-term disruptions are anticipated. The outlook, on the other hand, varies significantly by region. In Europe and the United States, market sentiment is relatively decent, supported by infrastructure spending and protective trade measures. In many other parts of the world, however, the outlook remains difficult to predict.

Supply side will need to be monitored if Middle East crisis is resolved

Even if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease, the resulting increase in availability of supply could place additional pressure on already oversupplied open-trade markets. Furthermore, the current interest rate environment continues to weigh on construction activity and investment decisions in several regions.

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Weighted-average dumping margins likely to prevail if the orders were revoked are up to

• 60.40 percent for Argentina,
• 86.09 percent for Colombia,
• 29.72 percent for Egypt,
• 72.28 percent for Indonesia,
• 19.26 percent for Italy,
• 26.95 percent for Malaysia,
• 30.86 percent for the Netherlands,
• 194.40 percent for Saudi Arabia,
• 155.10 percent for South Africa,
• 14.75 percent for Spain,
• 23.89 percent for Taiwan,
• 30.58 percent for Tunisia,
• 53.65 percent for Türkiye,
• 19.30 percent for Ukraine,
• 170.65 percent for the UAE

The AD orders were originally issued on February 1, 2021, for Argentina, Colombia, Egypt, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Türkiye, and the UAE, and on June 4, 2021, for Indonesia, Italy, Malaysia, South Africa, Spain, Tunisia, and Ukraine. The sunset reviews were initiated on January 2, 2026, and the final results were published on May 4, 2026.

Net countervailable subsidy rates likely to prevail if the order were revoked are

• 68.74 percent for Celik Halat ve Tel San A.S.,
• 95.29 percent for Guney Celik Hasir ve Demir,
• 82.29 percent for all others.

The CVD order on PC strand from Türkiye was originally issued on February 3, 2021. The sunset review was initiated on January 2, 2026, and the final results were published on May 4, 2026.

The DOC determined that Tosyali Iron Steel Industry Algeria made sales of subject merchandise at less than normal value during the period of review. The DOC has determined a weighted-average dumping margin of 127.32 percent for the company and all other Algerian producers and exporters.

According to the preliminary determination, the weighted-average dumping margin was also determined at 127.32 percent.

The regulation sets the total annual tariff-rate quota at 18,345,922 mt, while imports within the quota will remain duty-free, while volumes exceeding the quota will be subject to a 50 percent tariff, a sharp increase compared to the previous 25 percent safeguard duty.

This measure applies broadly to all third countries, including those with free trade agreements or preferential access, reinforcing the EU’s efforts to prevent trade diversion and protect domestic producers. However, imports originating from Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are excluded from the scope of the measure. The European Commission also retains the authority to expand the scope to include downstream steel products in future reviews.

The tariff-rate quotas will be administered on a quarterly basis, aiming to prevent import surges within short periods. During the first year of implementation, unused quotas will be carried over to subsequent quarters. However, the commission may later adjust this rule depending on market conditions, including import pressure and supply shortages.

The European Commission will:

• review the product scope regularly,
• assess the effectiveness of the measure every three years,
• potentially adjust quota volumes within a range of 14.4-22.2 million mt depending on market developments.

Annual volumes of tariff rate quotas for some steel products are listed below.

• Merchant Bars and Light Sections  :  881,735 mtons
• Rebars    : 844,526 mtons
• Wire Rods   : 1,569,532 mtons

In a joint statement, the European Parliament, the Council and the European Commission underlined that the EU has taken unprecedented steps since the start of the war to reduce its economic dependence on Russia and prevent its economic activity from supporting Russia’s war efforts.

However, the institutions acknowledged that some dependencies still remain, particularly for certain steel products that are not yet fully restricted. Limited volumes of Russian steel imports are therefore still permitted under transitional arrangements until September 30, 2028, with quotas that decrease annually. The EU confirmed that these measures are designed to ensure a complete phase-out of remaining Russian steel imports by the 2028 deadline.

The DOC has determined that revocation of the antidumping duty and countervailing duty orders on the given products from Mexico and Turkey would likely to lead to the continuation or reoccurrence of dumping, countervailable subsidies and material injury.

The estimated weighted-average dumping margin for Mexico are at 20.58 percent and 66.70 percent, while subsidy rates are 6.58 percent and 7.71 percent for Turkish companies.

The products subject to the orders are currently classifiable in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) under subheadings 7213.10.0000, 7214.20.0000, and 7228.30.8010.

The DOC found that countervailable subsidies were provided to producers and exporters of rebar from Algeria during the period of review from January 1, 2024, through December 31, 2024.

The final subsidy rate is at 72.94 percent only for Tosyali Iron Steel Industry Algeria SPA and all other Algerian exporters, in line with the preliminary determination.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings

• 7213.10.0000,
• 7214.20.0000,
• 7228.30.8010

of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS). The subject merchandise may also enter under other HTSUS subheadings including

• 7221.00.0017,
• 7221.00.0018,
• 7221.00.0030,
• 7221.00.0045,
• 7222.11.0001,
• 7222.11.0057,
• 7222.11.0059,
• 7222.30.0001,
• 7227.20.0080,
• 7227.90.6030,
• 7227.90.6035,
• 7227.90.6040,
• 7228.20.1000,
• 7228.60.6000.

In addition, the DOC determined an estimated weighted-average antidumping margin of 127.32 percent on the given products for Algeria, based on the investigation period from April 1, 2024, through March 31, 2025.

The DOC has determined that certain producers/exporters of reinforcing bars from Turkey made sales at prices at less than normal value during the period of review between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024.

The DOC has calculated a weighted-average dumping margin of 18.87 percent for Colakoglu Metalurji in line with the preliminary results.

The DOC had rescinded this review with respect to ICDAS Celik Enerji Tersane ve Ulasim Sanayi A.S. and Kaptan Demir Celik Endüstrisi ve Ticaret A.S. as the companies had no entries of the subject merchandise during the period of review.

The subject merchandise is classifiable in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) primarily under item numbers 7213.10.0000, 7214.20.0000, and 7228.30.8010.