There were 96 representatives from 36 different producers among the 302 registered delegates from a total of 41 different countries. There were also 75 registrations representing 43 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Ioannis Manessis, chairman of IREPAS, stated that the global steel industry is operating in an increasingly challenging environment characterized by geopolitical conflicts, shifting trade flows, higher costs and relatively weak demand. According to the IREPAS chairman, the deteriorating situations in the Black Sea and Iran are having a significant impact on steel markets and international trade. Damage to ports and vessels’ reluctance to sail have made trade in the Black Sea extremely difficult, while attacks on bulk carriers and oil tankers have also created significant challenges for trade in the Middle East.

Against this backdrop, energy prices, including oil, natural gas and coal prices, have increased, in some cases significantly. Manessis noted that these increases are raising costs for steel producers, scrap suppliers and shipping companies, affecting the entire steel value chain.

At the same time, the industry is facing an increasingly restrictive global trade environment. The IREPAS chairman highlighted the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its safeguard measures implemented after July 1, US tariffs, scrap trade restrictions in around 40 countries worldwide and other trade measures affecting steel markets. He also pointed to China’s recent efforts to prevent its steel industry from offering products at excessively low or loss-making prices, stating that these measures already appear to be having an impact on the market.

Meanwhile, higher interest rates are putting additional pressure on consumers as authorities seek to contain inflation. Manessis stated that, apart from demand related to the expansion of artificial intelligence data centers, global demand for steel products remains relatively weak.

According to the IREPAS chairman, demand is therefore not currently determining the direction of the market, with rising costs instead becoming the key factor. As a result, steel prices are increasing in almost all markets despite weak demand. Manessis added that, although the current environment remains difficult to navigate, higher prices are allowing trade to continue and creating opportunities for market participants.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Producers at IREPAS: Trade barriers and overcapacity are fragmenting global steel markets

Steel producers remain cautiously optimistic despite challenging international trade conditions, while energy and raw material costs are expected to continue putting pressure on mills at least through the end of the winter, according to Alex Gordienko, export director at Spain’s CELSA Group, speaking on behalf of the producers committee.

Mr. Gordienko said that regions face different challenges, with European producers particularly affected by energy-related issues. Nevertheless, producers continue to see underlying domestic demand and remain somewhat more optimistic than current market conditions might suggest.

India expected to remain focused on domestic market

Commenting on the rise in Indian steel demand and the decline in the country’s export activity, Gordienko pointed to significant infrastructure investments and rapidly growing construction demand, while India’s steel production capacity is also increasing. He said he expects India to remain primarily focused on its domestic market over the next five years.

Regarding Southeast Asian suppliers, Gordienko said they will remain competitive internationally, though increasingly selective about their target markets. Their presence is expected to remain significant in the MENA region, while access to the EU will be more difficult due to quota restrictions.

EU needs favorable investment conditions as well as trade protection

Turning to Europe, Gordienko said there is significant potential demand from housing, electricity generation, data centers and defense investments, as well as the replacement of aging infrastructure. However, bureaucratic barriers are preventing these needs from translating into actual construction and investment.

According to Gordienko, the EU has become increasingly effective at protecting its steel market, but less successful in creating economic conditions that make steel production and investment attractive. Safeguards and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) provide some protection, but cannot compensate for issues such as insufficient or expensive energy supply.

Overcapacity and trade barriers to fragment global markets

Addressing global overcapacity, Gordienko said governments increasingly want to preserve domestic steelmaking capacity even when mills struggle to generate profits, while new capacity continues to emerge in several regions.

He said he sees no realistic global mechanism capable of effectively regulating excess capacity. As trade barriers increase, surplus steel will have access to fewer export destinations, increasing the pressure on markets that remain open. At the same time, protected markets could experience temporary shortages and price increases despite substantial global excess capacity.

Gordienko said fragmentation is also changing the traditional steel market cycle. Instead of one broadly synchronized global cycle, individual regions are increasingly likely to follow their own cycles as trade barriers, domestic policies and local market conditions gain importance.

Looking ahead to 2027, he identified fragmentation as a key issue, encompassing overcapacity, Chinese exports and growing trade barriers, with market participants increasingly needing to focus on developments in their own domestic markets.

Traders at IREPAS: Trade barriers and freight risks make steel trade more regional

F.D. Baysal, chairman and CEO of SEBA Group of Companies and chairman of the traders committee, shared the committee’s assessment of current market conditions, highlighting weakening demand, regulatory pressures and rising geopolitical risks.

Mr. Baysal stated that steel trade is becoming more regional as tariffs, freight risks and additional import requirements complicate transactions. Presenting the findings of the IREPAS traders committee, Baysal said China had reduced steel production but continued to export large volumes. He stated that export licensing and VAT-related changes had altered the composition of its exports, with a greater share of long products. Continued weakness in China’s real estate sector has left surplus production seeking overseas markets, he added.

Freight risks complicate steel trade in Middle East

Baysal described freight conditions as volatile, stating that shipping from Asia to Europe has remained relatively soft, while finding vessels for shipments to and from the Middle East has become difficult. War-risk premiums and higher bunker costs have added to the challenges faced by traders.

Regarding trade in the GCC region, Baysal said decisions can no longer be based solely on the price of steel and its shipping cost. Traders must also consider insurance, changing transit times and uncertainty over whether cargoes will arrive as planned. He stated that he expects logistics to remain a significant issue. Baysal said geopolitical freight premiums are not necessarily permanent. What has changed more durably, in his view, is the need to account for geopolitical risks in every transaction. Shipping routes, additional premiums and the working capital tied up in delayed cargoes have become part of traders’ calculations.

High interest rates weigh on US steel demand

Baysal pointed out that higher interest rates are weighing on US commercial and residential construction and on demand for steel products used in those sectors. However, infrastructure, data centers, energy projects and manufacturing investment continue to consume steel. He noted that large infrastructure and data center projects are supplied mainly by domestic mills.

Against this background, Baysal said traders favor disciplined purchasing and low inventories. Back-to-back transactions are more attractive than speculative stockholding when financing is expensive and tariffs, quotas, freight and regional market conditions can change.

Capacity-demand gap and trade measures seen as interconnected risks

Although steel remains a cyclical industry, Baysal said its underlying trade structure has changed. Capacity growth, trade barriers and geopolitical risks have fragmented the market, requiring traders to identify opportunities in individual regions rather than rely on price differences alone.

Looking ahead to 2027, he described the gap between steel capacity and demand, and the trade measures that may result from it, as interconnected risks.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Rising costs and trade barriers put pressure on raw material flows

Jens Björkman from Stena Metal International and chairman of the raw material suppliers committee shared the committee’s assessments of current dynamics and difficulties in global raw material markets during a panel session.

Mr. Björkman stated that higher freight, energy and financing costs, together with potential restrictions on scrap exports, are putting pressure on the steelmaking raw material trade. Presenting the findings of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee, Björkman said coking coal prices had risen by around 60 percent within a few months. He also pointed to strong raw material demand in the US during the first part of 2026 and growth in India. In Europe, in contrast, high energy costs have added to the challenges facing the industry, he stated.

Low Rhine water levels disrupt European scrap and steel movements

Björkman said the low water levels of the River Rhine, comparable to those seen in 2018, have disrupted movements of scrap and steel in Europe. Some material has remained in inventories instead of reaching its destinations, causing business to be postponed. He described European steel capacity utilization of around 65 percent as unsustainable.

Regarding coking coal, Björkman said the summer price surge was driven particularly by conditions in China and had also lifted Australian prices. Chinese demand has since eased somewhat, he said. Although he cited an increase of around six percent in Indian production this year, he does not expect it to offset weaker Chinese demand. Björkman therefore sees a slightly negative outlook for coking coal prices in the coming months and said the earlier surge may prove temporary in the short term.

Trade disruptions affect scrap purchases in India and Pakistan

Turning to import scrap markets in India and Pakistan, Björkman said disruptions to trade flows have had a substantial effect on purchasing. Buyers who previously could purchase smaller quantities with shorter lead times have had to consider larger volumes and longer delivery periods. Higher freight and financing costs make those changes more difficult, he explained. He added that demand for European material has increased.

The chairman of the raw material suppliers committee expressed concern about proposed changes affecting EU shipments of ferrous and non-ferrous material to non-OECD countries. North Africa and South Asia are significant and consistent buyers of European material, he said. In his view, restrictions could affect both their ability to purchase scrap from the EU and recycling activity within Europe.

Financing raw material trade has also become more difficult throughout the supply chain, according to Björkman. Higher interest rates, freight costs and raw material prices are encouraging companies to keep lead times short, buy according to immediate requirements and avoid accumulating large inventories.

Scrap to remain principal raw material for EAF-based producers

On the future raw material mix for electric arc furnace-based producers, Björkman said scrap will remain the principal input. HBI and DRI can supplement scrap, but he does not expect them to replace it. Their cost is a constraint in many regions, while energy availability influences where they can be produced. Björkman also questioned whether Europe could depend on supplies from the GCC given regional and political uncertainties.

Trade barriers seen as key risk for scrap market in 2027

Björkman said Europe has sufficient scrap for its own steelmakers and has opposed adding further restrictions and administrative requirements to its export trade.

Asked about the risks facing the market in 2027, he identified increasing trade barriers as a particular concern for scrap suppliers. Björkman expects trade to become more regional, with European exporters facing additional requirements.

Under the new regulation, the EU will maintain free-of-duty tariff quotas equivalent to pre-overcapacity market conditions – calculated based on the 2013 import share of around 13 percent of EU consumption, resulting in an annual total quota volume of 18.3 million mt. The EU’s import volume will decrease as a result of the decline in the quota volume. The quotas will be administered on a quarterly basis, without carry-over between quarters, to avoid market flooding. The quotas will also be allocated per product category based on the share of imports that each product category held over the 2022-24 period. If deemed necessary, the European Commission may implement country-specific quotas or restrictions. Once these quotas are exhausted, a 50 percent tariff will apply, up from the current 25 percent, in line with global tariff levels with an aim to minimize the risk of trade diversion.

The measures will require importers to declare the country of “melt and pour” origin, verifying where the steel was originally produced in liquid form to prevent circumvention.

The Commission will make an assessment at the latest within two years following the adoption of this regulation to evaluate the necessity to adjust the scope of products and, if deemed necessary, it will consider making a legislative proposal to add additional steel products, including products that are made of or contain a significant amount of steel. In addition, the Commission shall evaluate the effectiveness of this regulation before July 1, 2031, and every five years thereafter.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Marriott Rive Gauche Hotel Paris

Day 2: Monday, September 16, 2024

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:30 – 11:00                   SESSION ONE – Global markets and CBAM impact

- Latest developments in the global steel market and recent trends in steelmaking capacity

Luciano Giua, Economist/Policy Analyst, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

- Navigating the EU CBAM: Financial impacts and strategies for cost mitigation

Louis Redshaw, Ceo/Founder, Redshaw Advisors Ltd

                                           SESSION TWO – ASEAN steelmarket outlook

Moderator: Anastasiia Kononenko, Head of Market Intelligence-Asian markets, SteelOrbis

Yeoh Wee Jin, Secretary General, South Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI)

11:00 – 11:30                     Networking break

11:30 – 12:30                    SESSION THREE – Macroeconomic overview

- Evaluation of economies – in EU, US, China globally

Wars and impacts of political crises
Predictions of possible scenarios for US elections

Daniel Gros, Professor, Bocconi University / Director, Bocconi University’s Institute for European Policy Making / Advisor, European Parliament

13:00 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, September 17, 2024

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

According to the statement, the US continues to face unfair competition from China’s overcapacity in steel, which is among the world’s most carbon-intensive, while China’s policies and subsidies for their domestic steel industry mean high-quality, low-emissions US products are undercut by low-priced Chinese products produced with higher emissions.

Next week, the US Trade Representative will issue a Federal Register notice announcing procedures for interested persons to comment on the proposed modifications.

It seems that the general trading atmosphere has become slightly better in the global long steel market. The imbalances which we have gotten used to have diminished somewhat and therefore traditional trade routes seem to be chosen again. The strengthening of the Russian currency and the reduced influx of Chinese steel to far away markets are having an impact.

Demand picks up in Europe, interest in imports declines

The European long steel products market is stable as demand has been picking up slightly. Local European suppliers are adapting to demand, while the weakened euro and antidumping threats are reducing interest in import offers. The stable pricing policy of European suppliers has also helped to reduce such interest.

UK antidumping case hit imports of Chinese rebar

The antidumping case in the UK against imports of Chinese rebar may lead to a stoppage of new bookings as the traders involved will not be ready to run the risk involved anymore. Although the case is rather a unique one, any uncertainty over its outcome will contribute to the halting of the trade in question. The impact of the case on the market may be seen in a few weeks or in a month’s time as there are still quite a lot of import orders of Chinese rebar due to to arrive shortly at UK ports.

Fluctuations in euro-US dollar exchange rate give rise to uncertainty

On the other hand, doubts about real demand and correct pricing due to the fluctuation of the euro-US dollar  exchange rate persist in the American market, although some markets in Central and Southern America are showing significant strength. With the US economy not moving as fast as originally estimated (negative GDP growth in Q1), buyers in the US market are very cautious. Although inventories are low, no one wants to increase inventories to the customary levels. The situation is even worse in energy-producing states.

On the bright side…

That said, demand in the MENA region is good and oil importing countries have been adapting reasonably well to current oil prices, without indicating lower activity so far.

Scrap supply on tight side in Europe, Turkish mills turn to Chinese billet

Supply remains tight for ferrous scrap, especially in Europe where steel mills are running well with decent order books and stable steel prices. The scrap price increases in April have put pressure on margins for EAF-based producers once again and forced them to try to ease the situation by substituting scrap purchases with billets. Turkish mills have already started buying Chinese billets as they are substantially more competitive than buying scrap or than purchasing billets from the CIS. There are massive price differences between markets which will cause some disturbances: e.g.; when ferrous scrap offers for the Turkish market have been at around $285/mt, which is equivalent to a billet price of
$410/mt, CIS origin billets were priced at around $385/mt, while Chinese origin billets were at $360/mt. Subsequently, the volume of trade for Chinese billets has been significant in the Mediterranean region, but Chinese offers for finished products have seemed to vanish.

Chinese suppliers continue to export

The steel output figures in China have started to go down, though the steel export volume is still increasing at a rate of 35 percent, meaning China will be exporting approximately an extra 30 million mt this year compared to 2014,  which is almost equal to 10 percent of the total seaborne steel trade. Therefore, it is not possible to talk about a balance between demand and supply yet. Chinese suppliers continue to export simply because export prices are better than domestic market prices.

Industries finally starting to adapt to overcapacities

The industries seem to finally be dealing with overcapacities through the supply chain. Scrap processors are idling unprofitable facilities in the Western world, and steelmaking capacities are being brought to a better equilibrium with demand. The adjustment will take a long time, but we at least see some signs of it happening. Global steel output also fell in April on year-on-year basis – overall and in major regions including China. This is a clear sign that the industry is adjusting supply to demand, and that decisions are being taken to make business sustainable.

Increases in prices of scrap and iron ore

The recent increases in iron ore prices back to the level of $60/mt, along with the increases in ferrous scrap prices, have brought demand back to the market. Buyers have moved from “wait and see” mode to their normal cycle of purchases, which has also helped a lot to reduce the imbalance in the supply-demand. The market has also benefited from the news that the US FED will not be hiking interest rates until September.

Stable conditions bode well for future outlook despite uncertainties

Competition is still very high in the market. On the other hand, sea freight rates continue to be very competitive. The somewhat stable conditions, i.e., in terms of pricing and demand, bode well for the industry. The main source of uncertainty remains currency fluctuation, more often due to geopolitical instability as well as to the uncertainty surrounding the second Greek bailout, and the possibility of the so-called Grexit, i.e., Greece’s exit from the euro.

Further supply reductions anticipated

More supply reductions are expected to be seen in the market. Chinese steel exports may indicate some decrease in the second half of 2015.

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