Under the new regulation, the EU will maintain free-of-duty tariff quotas equivalent to pre-overcapacity market conditions – calculated based on the 2013 import share of around 13 percent of EU consumption, resulting in an annual total quota volume of 18.3 million mt. The EU’s import volume will decrease as a result of the decline in the quota volume. The quotas will be administered on a quarterly basis, without carry-over between quarters, to avoid market flooding. The quotas will also be allocated per product category based on the share of imports that each product category held over the 2022-24 period. If deemed necessary, the European Commission may implement country-specific quotas or restrictions. Once these quotas are exhausted, a 50 percent tariff will apply, up from the current 25 percent, in line with global tariff levels with an aim to minimize the risk of trade diversion.

The measures will require importers to declare the country of “melt and pour” origin, verifying where the steel was originally produced in liquid form to prevent circumvention.

The Commission will make an assessment at the latest within two years following the adoption of this regulation to evaluate the necessity to adjust the scope of products and, if deemed necessary, it will consider making a legislative proposal to add additional steel products, including products that are made of or contain a significant amount of steel. In addition, the Commission shall evaluate the effectiveness of this regulation before July 1, 2031, and every five years thereafter.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Marriott Rive Gauche Hotel Paris

Day 2: Monday, September 16, 2024

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:30 – 11:00                   SESSION ONE – Global markets and CBAM impact

- Latest developments in the global steel market and recent trends in steelmaking capacity

Luciano Giua, Economist/Policy Analyst, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

- Navigating the EU CBAM: Financial impacts and strategies for cost mitigation

Louis Redshaw, Ceo/Founder, Redshaw Advisors Ltd

                                           SESSION TWO – ASEAN steelmarket outlook

Moderator: Anastasiia Kononenko, Head of Market Intelligence-Asian markets, SteelOrbis

Yeoh Wee Jin, Secretary General, South Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI)

11:00 – 11:30                     Networking break

11:30 – 12:30                    SESSION THREE – Macroeconomic overview

- Evaluation of economies – in EU, US, China globally

Wars and impacts of political crises
Predictions of possible scenarios for US elections

Daniel Gros, Professor, Bocconi University / Director, Bocconi University’s Institute for European Policy Making / Advisor, European Parliament

13:00 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, September 17, 2024

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

According to the statement, the US continues to face unfair competition from China’s overcapacity in steel, which is among the world’s most carbon-intensive, while China’s policies and subsidies for their domestic steel industry mean high-quality, low-emissions US products are undercut by low-priced Chinese products produced with higher emissions.

Next week, the US Trade Representative will issue a Federal Register notice announcing procedures for interested persons to comment on the proposed modifications.

It seems that the general trading atmosphere has become slightly better in the global long steel market. The imbalances which we have gotten used to have diminished somewhat and therefore traditional trade routes seem to be chosen again. The strengthening of the Russian currency and the reduced influx of Chinese steel to far away markets are having an impact.

Demand picks up in Europe, interest in imports declines

The European long steel products market is stable as demand has been picking up slightly. Local European suppliers are adapting to demand, while the weakened euro and antidumping threats are reducing interest in import offers. The stable pricing policy of European suppliers has also helped to reduce such interest.

UK antidumping case hit imports of Chinese rebar

The antidumping case in the UK against imports of Chinese rebar may lead to a stoppage of new bookings as the traders involved will not be ready to run the risk involved anymore. Although the case is rather a unique one, any uncertainty over its outcome will contribute to the halting of the trade in question. The impact of the case on the market may be seen in a few weeks or in a month’s time as there are still quite a lot of import orders of Chinese rebar due to to arrive shortly at UK ports.

Fluctuations in euro-US dollar exchange rate give rise to uncertainty

On the other hand, doubts about real demand and correct pricing due to the fluctuation of the euro-US dollar  exchange rate persist in the American market, although some markets in Central and Southern America are showing significant strength. With the US economy not moving as fast as originally estimated (negative GDP growth in Q1), buyers in the US market are very cautious. Although inventories are low, no one wants to increase inventories to the customary levels. The situation is even worse in energy-producing states.

On the bright side…

That said, demand in the MENA region is good and oil importing countries have been adapting reasonably well to current oil prices, without indicating lower activity so far.

Scrap supply on tight side in Europe, Turkish mills turn to Chinese billet

Supply remains tight for ferrous scrap, especially in Europe where steel mills are running well with decent order books and stable steel prices. The scrap price increases in April have put pressure on margins for EAF-based producers once again and forced them to try to ease the situation by substituting scrap purchases with billets. Turkish mills have already started buying Chinese billets as they are substantially more competitive than buying scrap or than purchasing billets from the CIS. There are massive price differences between markets which will cause some disturbances: e.g.; when ferrous scrap offers for the Turkish market have been at around $285/mt, which is equivalent to a billet price of
$410/mt, CIS origin billets were priced at around $385/mt, while Chinese origin billets were at $360/mt. Subsequently, the volume of trade for Chinese billets has been significant in the Mediterranean region, but Chinese offers for finished products have seemed to vanish.

Chinese suppliers continue to export

The steel output figures in China have started to go down, though the steel export volume is still increasing at a rate of 35 percent, meaning China will be exporting approximately an extra 30 million mt this year compared to 2014,  which is almost equal to 10 percent of the total seaborne steel trade. Therefore, it is not possible to talk about a balance between demand and supply yet. Chinese suppliers continue to export simply because export prices are better than domestic market prices.

Industries finally starting to adapt to overcapacities

The industries seem to finally be dealing with overcapacities through the supply chain. Scrap processors are idling unprofitable facilities in the Western world, and steelmaking capacities are being brought to a better equilibrium with demand. The adjustment will take a long time, but we at least see some signs of it happening. Global steel output also fell in April on year-on-year basis – overall and in major regions including China. This is a clear sign that the industry is adjusting supply to demand, and that decisions are being taken to make business sustainable.

Increases in prices of scrap and iron ore

The recent increases in iron ore prices back to the level of $60/mt, along with the increases in ferrous scrap prices, have brought demand back to the market. Buyers have moved from “wait and see” mode to their normal cycle of purchases, which has also helped a lot to reduce the imbalance in the supply-demand. The market has also benefited from the news that the US FED will not be hiking interest rates until September.

Stable conditions bode well for future outlook despite uncertainties

Competition is still very high in the market. On the other hand, sea freight rates continue to be very competitive. The somewhat stable conditions, i.e., in terms of pricing and demand, bode well for the industry. The main source of uncertainty remains currency fluctuation, more often due to geopolitical instability as well as to the uncertainty surrounding the second Greek bailout, and the possibility of the so-called Grexit, i.e., Greece’s exit from the euro.

Further supply reductions anticipated

More supply reductions are expected to be seen in the market. Chinese steel exports may indicate some decrease in the second half of 2015.

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