The supply and demand balance in the global long steel products market has not improved compared to previous months. Unfortunately, the positive expectations after the Chinese New Year holidays have not materialized. It seems Chinese exporters will continue to be aggressive, which of course will also drive other Asian exporters (Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and South Korea) to adopt a similar stance. If we look at the EU import statistics, we see a massive shift towards Asian suppliers. On the other hand, demand is not picking up as the market had anticipated or hoped, which puts pressure on both prices and production. However, the markets still hold positive hopes for the second half of the year.

Chinese real estate sector in deep trouble, Chinese exports may surge again

Two major Chinese developers, namely, Evergrande and Country Garden, are in deep financial trouble. There are some worrying rumours of infrastructure projects being cancelled due to the lack of funding. Iron ore with 62 percent Fe content is trading at around €116/mt and coke prices have dropped as well. This weakening of raw material costs brings many mills in China into positive territory. The pressure on Chinese long product mills is mounting and, if the rumours of the cancellation of infrastructure projects materialize, this could cause a surge in Chinese exports, supported by reduced raw material costs.

EU market very quiet amid reduced residential construction in northern Europe

The EU market is very quiet as residential construction has declined substantially in northern Europe. There is very little activity and prices from domestic mills are as stable as a rock. There is some increase in imports including unusual origins such as China, Oman and the UAE. Other sources are not able to compete with domestic offers.

Situation unchanged in US but higher interest rates a problem

As for the US, the situation is unchanged. However, the earlier optimism that the interest rates would come down sooner has vanished. Commercial and residential construction has not picked up and any improvement will have to wait until the summer. Government-funded projects were also affected by the lockdown of finances by the House of Representatives, which have just been released. There are discussions about converting empty office spaces to homes to cover the home deficit, which will not help the steel industry. Auto sales are also affected by the interest rates and are flat. In short, we are on hold for the next two moves of the US Federal Reserve. Rebar prices are steady but face downward pressure with lower raw material costs. Due to higher shipping costs, imports are not as competitive. HRC prices are still on a downward trend, which is affecting all steel futures. Slow economic activity in China after the Lunar New Year holiday and the lack of prospects for a quick easing of interest rates in the US have put pressure on commodities worldwide.

Turkey struggles in markets where it was formerly dominant

Turkey is competing on many fronts. Asian, GCC and North African exporters are now exporting heavily to markets where Turkey used to be dominant.

Lower raw material prices the only good news for steel mills

Iron ore prices have hit a six-month low, while ferrous scrap is being generated in decent volumes in the US, which has meant more tonnages destined for export. In Europe, the slow economy has reduced ferrous scrap flow and also demand from the steel industry which is struggling with poor order books. The only good news for steel mills nowadays could be that the raw material prices, both for iron ore and scrap, are going down. Also, lower activity means lower volumes, reducing supply pressure on the markets.

State subsidies for climate action to be a major issue for years to come

One of the main topics for market players to discuss for years to come will be the definition of state subsidies related to climate change, because it looks like this issue will definitely be used for the next level of protection measures. 

Competition remains local or regional

Competition is still mostly local or regional rather than global due to existing protectionist measures and it is strong where such measures do not exist.

Status of markets generally unstable, outlook slow and unsatisfactory

Under such circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable in many markets or stable at a low level at best. The outlook, unfortunately, is slow and unsatisfactory.

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At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the global long products market has recently been suffering from declining imports and exports and a lack of supply-demand balance.

The IREPAS chairman said the reduced production levels in 2022 have been carried over into 2023 and are able to satisfy actual consumption, which has resulted in an aversion to imported steel due to the lack of certainty, leading to a decline in the scope of international business.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Output cuts in EU to bring down scrap prices

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the committee meeting findings stating that the past few months have been challenging for the global steel market due to drastic price drops, higher energy prices and weak global demand.

Mr. Björkman pointed out that the energy crisis in the EU has eased, going back to pre-war levels and standing at a 10-year average, though high interest rates still remain a challenge. He said that there is a likelihood of production cuts ahead of the summer, which would bring down scrap prices and orders in the EU.

Regarding the potential consequences of the European Parliament’s recent revision of its Waste Shipment Regulation, Mr. Björkman stated that scrap shipments to non-OECD countries will be a major challenge, fortunately Turkey – which is a major destination for scrap supply – will not be affected. In addition, the committee chairman noted that within a five-year timeframe the EU will consume most of the scrap generated in the region itself since its steel production will shift to electric arc furnaces within the scope of green steel targets.

Aside from multiple challenges, Turkey is facing muted trade activities ahead of the approaching elections amid production cuts and weak demand for finished steel products, the committee chairman stated. He went on to say that once the election period is over Turkey is likely to see some pick-up in domestic business, though the demand in the local market will not be sufficient and so Turkey will have to try to export again. Regarding Turkey’s scrap demand, the committee chairman said that “a slower normal demand” is expected in the coming months.

Traders at IREPAS: Rough times for long steel industry         

Wilhelm Alff, chairman of the traders committee, said that the steel industry, especially the Turkish long steel industry, is going through very rough times amid weak domestic markets, high energy costs, a lot of trade cases, and new competition in the form of new players in the market such as Iran, India, China, the Middle East and Africa. Commenting on the Turkish market situation, the committee chairman said that areas which were previously reachable for Turkish long steel products are now getting less and less so, due to greater competition. He also drew attention to the fact that, as of March 31, Turkey had only used less than five percent of its EU rebar import quota, because of the reduction in EU steel demand and the increasing number of new mills in the region, for instance, the competitive offers from Oman and Egypt. He went on to say that, with the current market prices in the EU, which have been on a drastic downtrend since October last year and are at levels almost equal to import prices, buyers prefer domestic sourcing rather than waiting for late arrivals. The traders committee predicted that the EU quota situation will continue like this for at least another quarter.

Looking at China, Mr. Alff said that China’s tightening of its controls on overcapacity is likely to have a significant effect on market dynamics, resulting in decreased steel output which will support prices in turn. However, he added that this will also depend on how strictly these controls are implemented. The committee chairman stated that the anticipated demand in China failed to materialize after the New Year holidays and so it may be possible to see competitively-priced Chinese steel sold in the export markets. However, the extent to which this will happen depends on the level of demand in China and in the global market. He said that, if Chinese steel demand continues to be weaker than expected, Chinese suppliers may turn to the export markets, while China may face some obstacles due to trade measures.

Regarding the possible outcomes of the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism, Alff said that the approval of this mechanism is a significant move and it could face resistance from exporting countries such as China and India as they may consider these measures as unfair practice. He added that these countries may also respond with tariffs on European goods, which could lead to trade frictions. The committee chairman said that the eventual carbon border tax is likely to increase the cost of imported goods that have a heavy carbon footprint, which will result in difficulties for some countries as regards competing in the EU.

Producers at IREPAS: Falling energy costs and scrap prices may create opportunities   

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, pointed out that the steel industry has been experiencing challenging times amid inflation and rising interest rates, which pose a big problem for investors in making decisions about their investments. He also said that supply and demand are not balanced and that exports and imports are declining everywhere, while adding that capacity utilization rates are way below usual levels. All these factors put pressure on the market, he noted. However, he also pointed to some positive factors, saying that energy costs and scrap prices are coming down.

Commenting on Turkey, the committee chairman said that the country has lost its major traditional export markets and its leading position, adding that the countries to which Turkey used to export, like Egypt, the GCC and Indonesia, have become exporters themselves. Another obstacle facing Turkish exports are trade cases. It is difficult to sell to the US, Canada and the EU and it is impossible to sell to Singapore and Hong Kong. He stated that, with falling energy costs and scrap prices, Turkey may have the chance to do business again. Regarding the steel demand expected in Turkey’s southern region following the devastating earthquakes in February, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that the unfortunate disaster will create demand, not only for the steel industry, but also for downstream segments as well. However, he pointed out that the demand will be spread over years, adding that it is not going to come all at once like people have been saying.

Turning to China, Cebecioğlu said that the Chinese market has not picked up after the New Year holidays, while he indicated that Chinese traders are very aggressive and very much active in the export markets. The IREPAS chairman underlined that China affects all market players because of its big capacity and that the Chinese are exporting to every corner of the world, so “if they stick to reducing production, this might help”.

The products subject to antidumping duty investigation currently fall under Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers 7213.10.00.00, 7214.20.00.00, 7215.90.00.90 and 7227.90.00.90.