Weighted-average dumping margins likely to prevail if the orders were revoked are up to

• 60.40 percent for Argentina,
• 86.09 percent for Colombia,
• 29.72 percent for Egypt,
• 72.28 percent for Indonesia,
• 19.26 percent for Italy,
• 26.95 percent for Malaysia,
• 30.86 percent for the Netherlands,
• 194.40 percent for Saudi Arabia,
• 155.10 percent for South Africa,
• 14.75 percent for Spain,
• 23.89 percent for Taiwan,
• 30.58 percent for Tunisia,
• 53.65 percent for Türkiye,
• 19.30 percent for Ukraine,
• 170.65 percent for the UAE

The AD orders were originally issued on February 1, 2021, for Argentina, Colombia, Egypt, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Türkiye, and the UAE, and on June 4, 2021, for Indonesia, Italy, Malaysia, South Africa, Spain, Tunisia, and Ukraine. The sunset reviews were initiated on January 2, 2026, and the final results were published on May 4, 2026.

There were 99 representatives from 41 different producers among the 386 registered delegates from a total of 49 different countries. There were also 86 registrations representing 41 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Ioannis Manessis, chairman of IREPAS, said that two major conflicts – one in Ukraine and the other in Iran — have consequences for global trade in general and serious repercussions for the industry in particular. He said steel trade has been affected by both demand destruction and supply disruptions, as well as by elevated energy costs, higher freight rates and the practical difficulty of securing vessels on time to transport materials.

Mr Manessis added that protectionism continues to intensify at the same time. IREPAS chairman also said that real demand in the global long products sector remains subdued while geopolitical tensions have driven up freight, energy, and raw material costs. Combined with some degree of inventory replenishment, this has supported higher prices he concluded.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Tighter supply, geopolitics reshape global scrap market

Speaking at the panel session, Jens Björkman from Stena Metal International and also chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, shared the committee’s assessments of the current dynamics and difficulties in the global raw material markets. Mr. Björkman highlighted significant shifts in global market dynamics over the past year, pointing to tighter supply conditions, changing trade flows and increasing geopolitical influence on pricing and demand. One of the key developments has been the slowdown in Chinese steel output, with March production falling to the lowest monthly level in six years. This decline, linked to weaker margins and stricter controls, has supported sentiment in other regions, while iron ore prices have remained relatively firm at $105-110/mt due to supply-side constraints. India continues to stand out as a major growth market, supported by strong domestic sponge iron production. This has reduced its reliance on scrap imports, although the country could be an attractive destination, based on freight costs and pricing conditions.

The chairman of the raw material suppliers committee stated that, in Europe, safeguard measures and regulatory frameworks have reinforced protectionist dynamics, supporting intra-regional scrap demand. However, concerns persist over high energy costs and the risk of stagflation, which could weigh on longer-term demand. In the United States, stronger domestic steel production has boosted internal demand for raw materials. At the same time, the attractiveness of scrap exports has declined, particularly for high-quality grades, as supply increasingly shifts toward domestic consumption.

Mr. Björkman pointed out that Turkey has seen improved sentiment, supported by stronger steel production and demand. Reduced semis supply from Iran has increased reliance on scrap imports, pushing prices to around $410/mt, an annual high. Rising freight costs, driven by higher bunker fuel prices and disruptions of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, have further supported pricing.

Mr. Björkman emphasized that there is no global surplus of scrap supply, as scrap continues to be steadily consumed. Europe exports around 19-20 million mt annually, reflecting limited domestic demand growth, but future availability may tighten due to increasing EAF adoption and regulatory constraints. Traditional importers in the Middle East may face challenges as scrap availability tightens in Europe and the US. Meanwhile, he noted, growing scrap generation and processing capacity in Asia, particularly in China and India, could gradually reshape global trade flows.

Mr. Björkman said that increasing regulatory requirements, particularly EU waste shipment rules, are expected to drive investment in sorting and processing. At the same time, tighter credit conditions and reduced availability of trade finance are adding complexity to global scrap trade. He went on to say that, despite strong pricing and demand conditions, the market outlook remains uncertain. Energy prices, economic growth and geopolitical developments continue to pose risks, while elevated oil prices at around $110 per barrel are still considered manageable for now. However, in conclusion, he commented that any deterioration in demand or purchasing power could quickly shift the market into a more challenging phase.

Traders at IREPAS: Geopolitical tensions and higher costs disrupt steel trade flows

Speaking during the panel session, Wilhelm Alff, director at Duferco and chairman of the traders committee, shared the committee’s assessment of current market conditions, highlighting weakening demand, regulatory pressures and rising geopolitical risks. Mr. Alff reminded that crude steel production in China reached around 960 million mt in 2025, while data from the first quarter of 2026 indicate that output may decline further or at best remain stable, with no clear signs of growth. In China, the sharpest drop was observed in the rebar segment, in which production fell by 12 percent, reflecting the ongoing downturn in the construction sector. The only improvement in China was the growth of more than 10 percent in iron ore inventories, mainly due to strategic stock building, highlighting the disconnect between raw material positioning and weak end-user demand.

This weakness in demand is particularly evident in Europe, where the overall economic outlook remains poor. Public spending is increasingly being redirected toward defense and social support rather than infrastructure, especially in Germany, limiting the recovery potential for steel consumption. The committee also pointed out that existing production capacity in the EU continues to exceed demand, noting that even prolonged production stoppages by major producers have had little visible impact on the market. A key concern for traders remains the implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The committee chairman emphasized that, in the current environment, traders are advised to use default emission values when calculating CBAM costs in order to avoid risks, although this approach increases cost exposure. Uncertainty surrounding calculation methods and verification procedures continues to complicate transactions, making it essential to involve producers and clearly define contract terms.

In addition, recent changes to the EU safeguard system have added further pressure. Quotas have been reduced by nearly 50 percent, while out-of-quota duties may rise to as high as 50 percent. Market participants criticized the lack of adjustment in country-specific quotas, even where suppliers have not delivered material for extended periods. As a result, portions of the quota system remain effectively unusable, further tightening supply and negatively affecting buyers and end-users in the region. Against this backdrop, traders also highlighted the growing impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. According to Mr. Alff, escalating tensions have tightened raw material supply chains and pushed costs higher, significantly slowing trading activity. Mills are increasingly relying on short-term sourcing strategies and opportunistic cargoes, while additional costs for transporting billets overland from Omani ports are estimated at around $40/mt. Severe port congestion is further complicating trade flows, making execution increasingly difficult. Despite these disruptions, the committee believes that the current situation is still being treated as temporary rather than structural. However, logistical constraints, especially in key maritime routes, continue to limit cargo movements and add uncertainty to global trade.

Commenting on global trade flows, Mr. Alff noted that exporters are likely to face growing challenges in accessing traditional markets. Tightening EU quotas and rising protectionism are forcing suppliers to seek alternative destinations, though options are becoming increasingly limited as more countries introduce similar trade barriers. Africa is expected to remain a key growth market in the medium term, supported by rising imports from Asia, particularly China, although the expansion of local production capacity and potential protectionist measures could gradually slow this trend.

Regarding China, the committee expects semi-finished steel exports to remain at elevated levels but under tighter control, as the Chinese authorities are likely to manage trade flows more actively to avoid another sharp surge. While the ongoing crisis in the Gulf region could support demand for Chinese material, its impact will largely depend on logistical conditions and the ability to move cargoes efficiently.

Looking at other regions, market conditions in the US and Latin America were described as relatively stable, with the US benefiting from solid demand driven by public infrastructure projects.

Overall, the traders committee underlined that the global steel market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty, shaped by weak demand in key regions, regulatory changes and geopolitical risks. In such an environment, Alff concluded that it is extremely difficult to predict price trends, emphasizing that market participants will need to continuously monitor developments and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Producers at IREPAS: Global steel sector under pressure from costs and weak growth

Alex Gordienko, export director of Spain’s CELSA Group and representing the producers committee, stated, in sharing the producers committee’s findings, that the global steel industry is facing increasing pressure from rising costs, weak economic growth and regulatory complexity. He noted that uncertainty remains high, particularly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Mr. Gordienko indicated that raw material prices have risen significantly, while the ability to pass these costs on to customers remains limited. As a result, margins across the industry are under sustained pressure, with finished steel prices failing to fully reflect higher input costs.

Mr. Gordienko noted that economic growth remains subdued across many regions, limiting the potential for a meaningful recovery in steel demand. He warned that current conditions reflect a fragile balance, with demand holding but lacking strong momentum. He described energy markets as highly volatile, largely due to tensions in the Middle East, adding that there is no clear timeline for a resolution and that a prolonged conflict could significantly worsen market conditions.

Mr. Gordienko went on to state that trade policy remains a key theme, with the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at the center of discussions.

CBAM is seen as a mechanism that will gradually level carbon costs globally, encouraging countries such as Turkey, China and India to develop their own carbon pricing systems.

He said that, while CBAM is not expected to trigger immediate price changes, producers anticipate a medium-term disruption. By 2027, mills with verified emissions data are expected to gain a competitive advantage, as buyers increasingly prioritize suppliers able to provide reliable carbon data. Currently, only a limited number of suppliers, particularly in Japan and South Korea, are fully prepared for these requirements.

Meanwhile, the other restrictive factor, he pointed out, is that a new quota system stricter than the EU’s framework is expected to be introduced in the UK.

Mr. Gordienko commented that logistical challenges are adding further pressure, particularly in the Middle East, where port congestion is disrupting cargo flows. Limited truck availability and rising freight costs, driven by higher bunker fuel prices and fuel shortages, are increasing delivery costs for producers. He also stated that production disruptions in Iran have significantly affected global semis supply. Publicly available information indicates that facilities representing around 10 million mt of capacity have been heavily damaged, with recovery timelines ranging from six to 12 months. Iran exported approximately 3 million mt of semis in 2025, with around 75 percent directed to Asia. The disruption has contributed to increased Chinese semi-finished exports, particularly in March, as China moved to fill the supply gap. In the meantime, diesel shortages in Europe and transportation constraints are further amplifying cost pressures, with freight rates rising faster than oil prices.

On the raw materials side, Gordienko stated that availability remains a structural constraint. European producers, heavily reliant on scrap for electric arc furnace-based production, face limited flexibility in switching to alternative inputs such as HBI due to high energy requirements. This suggests limited short-term changes in production routes.

Lastly, he shared his prediction regarding the market outlook. Despite relatively stable demand and pricing conditions, the overall outlook remains uncertain. In conclusion, he said that energy prices, geopolitical developments and cost pressures continue to pose significant risks, leaving the global steel industry in a fragile and unpredictable environment.

Day 1: Sunday, April 26, 2026

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Hotel Okura Amsterdam

Day 2: Monday, April 27, 2026

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

IREPAS Chairman: Ioannis Manessis, Principal, Hellenic Halyvourgia S.A

09:30 – 11:10                  SESSION ONE – Critical Changes in the Global Long Steel Markets and Macroeconomic Overview

- Long products market outlook

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group

- Macroeconomic Overview

- Patrice Ollivaud, Economist, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

 - Panel: Hedging ferrous metals to unlock commodity trade finance solutions

Moderator: Alberto Xodo, Product Specialist (Steel & Nickel), LME
John Short, CEO, Boomer Commodities
Phillip Price, Founder, Pool 

11:10 – 11:40 Networking break

11:40 – 13:10 SESSION TWO – Global Steel Market Outlook and CBAM Impact

- Hydrogen-based DRI: Front Runner or Also Ran?

Dr. John Atherton, Secretary General, International Iron Metallics Association

- CBAM Unlocked: Risk, Opportunity, and the Road Ahead

Jack Laing, Carbon Specialist, CarbonChain

- Chinese Steel Outlook for 2026

Yuan Wenjiong, President, Dao Fortune

- Indian Steel Market Outlook 

Sumit Bhatia, Vice President – New Business Development & Strategy, ARS Steels

13:10 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, April 28, 2026

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

There is still a shortage of steel everywhere in the global long steel products market. Demand remains high in the sheltered markets. On the other hand, there is pressure from the Chinese government to reduce steel prices. It is hard to imagine that this will lead to anything but more supply shortages.

If we look back at the previous price booms in the global market, circumstances were different. There were almost no volumes for traders to trade in 1987 as everything had been sold. In 2008, prices hit the highest levels ever, but the correlations between the different products made production-cost sense. The volumes were there and available, while buyers just paid the price. Today, volumes are in short supply and consumers pay the requested prices. While obviously we are in new territory, it may be noted that the 2008 boom ended with strongly falling prices. Last month, steel production was up by 23 percent. This trend will continue and, as a result, there may be some price correction in the last quarter of the current year.

Buyers in EU have their hands tied, have no option but to accept new higher prices

Reinforcing bar prices in the EU market have reached a 13-year high and the demand there is still strong. Prices of deformed bars are not bound to scrap prices anymore. Some mills have long lead times and those who have material in stock are focusing more on prompt deliveries of smaller volumes, which increases the pressure on the buying side. Due to the lack of import options, buyers have no option but to swallow the new prices in order to fulfil their commitments to their customers in the construction industry. The impact of the EU safeguard measures on steel imports can be seen very clearly taking into consideration that 30 percent of the deformed bars consumed in Germany and the Benelux countries had been imported before the safeguard measures were introduced, whereas the share of imported steel is now down to only about five percent.

Strong demand and scarce supply still prevails in US market

Demand in the US is strong in spite of the high prices in the market. At present, the problem is on the supply side. Most mills are sold for one to two months forward and have less availability of any prompt shipments. Naturally, prices are as high as ever and look like continuing in this way throughout the third quarter. Some mills are adding additional capacities and labour shifts, and so the supply side is expected to be in check in the fourth quarter. However, prices may continue at such levels throughout 2021. Imports are difficult as most buyers do not wish to commit at these historically high prices for three to six months forward. Shipping prices are also as high as before, with much more uncertainty regarding arrival or delivery dates. With all this, domestic mills have a considerable advantage over import sales.

China’s almost complete absence from exports is a big plus for the global market

During the last two weeks of May, many thought that China would have lower prices. However, the prices of Chinese steel are going up again along with iron ore prices. After China removed steel export rebates in the last quarter, its’ reduced capacity for export has become a big plus globally. The world market will be in better equilibrium as China is almost completely out of the export market now. In this situation, any downward trend such as expected by some in the fourth quarter will certainly be much softer. The mills that have no alternative to the Chinese market will have to reduce their prices. There have been some cheap sales from Iran and India. The other countries will weather this short storm. Otherwise, there is not much competition in the market but rather more struggling for availability depending on the product.

Scrap demand continues to increase, expected to remain strong

In the meantime, demand for ferrous scrap continues to increase as steel production strengthens. Supply chains remain extremely tight in many geographies as inventories are low and finished product demand remains high. Well-booked steel mills at high prices will also mean strong demand for raw materials through the next quarter. Another major positive for the market is that global raw material prices have seemed to be levelling off at the recent high prices, which brings some stability for future sales. The attempt by China to push raw material prices down has not succeeded.

Freight rates elevated, another increase may be imminent

Freight rates are elevated as a result of the general demand conditions in the global economy. Container ports are becoming more congested and so another increase in freight rates is imminent.

Hopes increase for more normal conditions in post-Covid period

Steel demand in general remains elevated and we are quickly entering a post-Covid period of open societies, travel, and a return to more normal consumption patterns. Limitations on daily life will hopefully be over by the end of the summer, which will be the main factor supporting demand.

Very positive outlook for US and EU amid vaccinations and public spending

Overall demand is strong due to public spending. Vaccinations have been carried out very rapidly before the summer in the US and the EU and so these regions are returning to their pre-Covid days slowly. New infrastructure and construction projects are being approved in Europe and the US. Regional and domestic demand in Europe and the US are stronger than normal. The Russian market also remains very strong.

Market outlook is satisfactory if not outstanding

The current status of the market can be described as generally stable with some short-term fluctuations possible. The outlook is certainly satisfactory if it cannot be described as outstanding. Going forward, competition will probably only be seen in Asia with some see-saw fluctuations, but it seems the overall market will remain “perfect to proceed”.

Cheap money policy and infrastructure spending in US to give market a boost

Although the four percent inflation increase in the US has created some concerns, the current cheap money policy is expected to continue. It does not seem that infrastructure spending will be delayed this time around. Interest costs for the government and private sectors are at a record low and infrastructure spending is more necessary after another 13 years of neglect. This should support construction-related consumption and pricing. With the arrival of extra demand after we return outdoors, the market should still enjoy good business even next year.

DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE?

PLEASE LEAVE A COMMENT AND SHARE YOUR OPINION WITH US

The tariffs are effective with respect to goods entered, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after March 23, 2018. Countries with temporary exclusions to the tariffs include Canada, Mexico, Australia, Argentina, South Korea, Brazil and  member countries of the European Union (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom).

Customs and Border Protection noted that exclusions are based on the country of origin, not the country of export. The merchandise covered by the additional duties may also be subject to pre-existing antidumping and countervailing duties.