The global long steel products market is oversupplied and overcrowded. The situation has worsened and is now structural. The competition in the global market is predatory.  Margins are dead. The only strategy is cashflow and turnover. Whoever can ship first, wins. Whoever negotiates for $5/mt more, loses the order. Every confirmed business is a major success. Moreover, without the US market, competition may become brutal.

Latest US blanket 50 percent Section 232 duty marks unprecedented shift

The latest US decision to impose a blanket 50 percent Section 232 duty on all steel imports marks an unprecedented shift – one that severely impacts importers while handing a windfall to domestic producers. Although there was previously a similar measure targeting imports from Turkey, this universal application is unparalleled. What makes this especially jarring is its immediate enforcement, affecting cargoes due to arrive soon, offering no transition period or due process. This abruptness feels inconsistent with the values and principles we have long associated with the US marketplace – predictability, fairness, and rule of law.

New US decision cuts its market off from rest of world, importers handed long vacation

If the 50 percent Section 232 duty holds, it may ironically render the US the most expensive steel market globally, shutting it off from the world at a time when collaboration and balance are most needed. It seems importers in the US have been handed a long, scorching summer of vacation, just as they brace to absorb the financial fallout of all US-bound cargoes. These are extraordinary times and must be navigated with clarity, unity, and resolve.

Demand still weak in Europe and Turkey, with imports putting pressure on prices

Demand is still soft in the European market and imports are putting a ceiling on any potential price increases. Unless there is an actual pickup in end-user consumption, prices will hover at current levels or drop, especially if more cheap Asian billet flows in. Demand in Turkey is still lacking also, but more important is that, with the current iron ore and coal prices, there will be more supply pressure from Far Eastern and Southeast Asian suppliers. Far Eastern and Southeast Asian origin steel billet prices are going down almost every day.

Scrap-based producers falling behind in terms of costs

Scrap-based producers are getting priced out. Billet from Asia is cheaper than melting scrap. There is almost no point in running a melt-shop when you can just roll. This shift reshuffles power, as cheap billet exporters win and EAF-based mills are now considered high-cost producers.

Chinese long steel exporters start to push out Southeast Asians

Southeast Asian mills, who had dominated the market, are now being quietly pushed out by China. Chinese long product exports surged by over 100 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2025. Reduced blast furnace costs, falling domestic demand, and export subsidies mean this wave of Chinese exports will not slow as it is policy-driven, not market-driven. A serious displacement is taking place. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia are all fighting for markets. Even South Korean mills, who were deemed to be bulletproof previously, are now closing lines for the first time in decades. China is stable, but prices are not going up and their steel is cheap, hoping for new export markets. Oil prices are also weak which is good for some players in the steel market, terrible for others.

Market currently very unstable, outlook unsatisfactory, seems to depend on political decisions

The market is currently very unstable. No one is making money. Everyone is quoting, but very few are actually booking orders. The outlook is unsatisfactory and seems to depend on political decisions.

OECD: Some brighter prospects in ASEAN and MENA regions

The recently published OECD Steel Outlook 2025 states, “Demand in the OECD area will remain roughly constant, while Chinese demand will decline appreciably due to the downturn in construction and structural shifts in China’s economy. Prospects are brighter in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) areas, where demand will grow strongly.”

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The global long steel products market is slowing down in general, which is putting pressure on producers. Demand for reinforcing bars and wire rods remains very weak and there is strong pressure on prices from the new exporters – Algeria, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia – who are in the market with very aggressive offers.

Business still stagnant in US, high interest rates a major factor 

Business in the US is still stagnant. Demand has slowed down and supply is the same, putting pressure on prices. High interest rates constitute the biggest factor in the slowdown of both commercial and residential construction. The US Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep inflation under control are working, while slowing down the economy. Flat steel prices are still under pressure, with flats mainly supplied from domestic sources.

Non-traditional sources active in exports, Turkey struggles due to trade measures 

Exports are only active from non-traditional sources like Algeria and Egypt, which are subject to no antidumping or countervailing duty measures so far. Turkey has been unfairly hit with high antidumping duty, when one mill honored a contract made before the Ukrainian war and delivered as pledged, even after the surge in prices. All Turkish mills (except one) were conveniently painted with the same brush.

New US and EU measures target Russian exports of semis and raw materials 

It seems that the situation in Ukraine will be a never-ending story. However, the new restrictions to be introduced by the US and the EU will create more complications for producers who import Russian semis and raw materials and export their goods to the US and the EU, namely, Turkey and Egypt. The EU is already demanding a declaration from producers confirming no Russian input for goods that are shipped into the EU. US officials are paying visits to individual companies explaining the risks of not cutting ties with Russia. We will witness more circumvention cases in the coming period. The halting of Russian steel imports in six weeks’ time into the EU should have a significant impact. It is difficult to prevail in defensive cases, which may cause Turkey to strongly reduce imports from Russia.

US and EU to produce less steel in 2023 than in 2022 

Both the US and the EU will produce less steel in 2023 than in 2022.  In the US, flat product output is down five percent year to date, while domestic long product output is down even more.

Europe very quiet due to holidays, private sector investors lack confidence 

Europe has been very quiet over the last few weeks due to the holidays. Prices are very flat and there are no signs of improvement in sight. The main reason is low activity and low ordering from the market. Mills are fighting for every ton which is available. Overcapacities in the EU are preventing mills from raising prices. Imports are practically non-existent right now as one can see from the safeguard import statistics. All EU countries are trying to avoid a recession by injecting money into the economy, but the private sector is afraid due to all the uncertainties surrounding energy prices, interest rates and additional burdens which may come from Brussels in relation to CO2 emissions. All these uncertainties are holding the private sector back from investing.

Strong domestic construction in Russia restrains its exports 

Russia is experiencing strong growth in its domestic construction sector and so it is not so hungry for exports.

Stimulus packages in China have no impact on its exports 

So far, all stimulus packages introduced in China have had no impact on exports that affects global steel prices. China’s BOFs are working at over 90 percent capacity utilization and EAFs at under 50 percent.

Scrap demand falls amid reduced steel outputs, scrap prices hold firm 

Slowing production has also led to lower ferrous scrap demand. European demand is expected to contract in the coming quarter. Although demand is slowing down for scrap also, inflows are dropping for scrap traders. Availability is low and this is exerting pressure on recyclers to get material to their yards and shredders. Scrap prices are still holding firm, mainly because suppliers are much more organized. They may stay around the mid-$300s/mt unless demand for reinforcing bar falls further. India seems to have a weak domestic market, but, on the other hand, it is paying top bucks for scrap, which supports scrap at the mid-$300s/mt.

Some new projects in Europe, Turkey and S. Arabia to provide support 

There are a number of projects coming on stream in Europe and Turkey. There is also the NEOM city project in Saudi Arabia, with demand for a huge quantity of reinforcing bars which is supposed to come on stream shortly.

Freight costs lower but still higher than before pandemic, clean energy an issue for steel sector 

Raw material prices are softening a little and shipping prices are coming down but are still higher than pre-pandemic prices. New policies on carbon emission limitations and clean energy will be a problem for the steel industry in the future. Ironically, a lot of Chinese “clean” energy technology is made in factories using coal-powered electricity. Clean energy technology should come from clean supply chains, though cheap Chinese inputs such as polysilicon for solar panels and critical minerals for batteries are often made or extracted by cheap labor in other parts of the world.

US still a locomotive of the global economy 

The US economy and US industrial orders are still the locomotive of the global economy. Electricity prices have also lessened since last year’s fluctuations. Inflation no longer seems a threat and in general autumn is expected to be better than the first seven months of 2023.

International competition weak amid low prices and high logistics costs 

International competition in the market is weak because prices are so low that logistics are killing trade. There is almost no international competition. Otherwise, the competition is for volumes, not to increase them or simply to keep them stable, but rather to limit the slide in volumes as much as possible. Imports are dropping in North America and the EU, which of course affects the MENA region and Latin America.

Current market status unstable, outlook unsatisfactory except for scrap suppliers 

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable and unpredictable. The outlook for the next quarter is mostly unstable and unsatisfactory, except for ferrous scrap suppliers.

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Demand for long steel products continues to be reasonable in many areas like America or Europe but is slowing down in countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region due to seasonal reasons.

Pressure from Chinese goods intensifies

A new wave of offers for all kinds of Chinese origin steel  is adding to the pressure and increasing competition. All the while Chinese consumption has stopped growing. Exports provide a margin for Chinese mills so it has increased. Comparitively at the end of June, domestic billet prices in China were at about US$240/mt and reinforcing bars were priced at about US$280/mt ex-works, excluding taxes. As a result, exports were up by 45 percent during the first five months of the year. Aggressively priced billet offers from China have also been forcing prices downwards in the international market, although prices in areas like the EU are showing more resilience. The imbalance in the market is definitely moving in the direction of excess supply.

Such a situation leads Turkish suppliers to look for alternatives and those are not so plentiful.

Imports into Europe made more difficult by weakness of euro

Low activity in Europe and the weakness of the euro do not help importers and – so far – have helped keep prices stable in most EU countries. However, prices are now at levels that may attract the one or the other buyer. Competition is tough.

Chinese effect also exerts strong pressure on deep sea scrap markets

Scrap demand outside of Europe and the US has deteriorated over the past month as Chinese steel products have become increasingly competitive. This has put strong pressure on the deep sea scrap markets. Capacity utilization at scrap-based mills is being reduced. Demand for material remains decent in the European and US markets but pricing will be adjusted downwards in accordance with the rest of the markets.

Margins being squeezed everywhere

Low prices in the market are destroying margins very rapidly, and businesses in many areas, including China, are showing negative results and entering into problematic financial territory. The issue of the sustainability of these businesses will force production cuts. The question is when this will happen.

How long will Chinese banks continue to provide finance?

It is clear that the Chinese mills themselves will not cut back, but the question is how long the Chinese banks will continue to provide finance. The Chinese banks will soon complain to Beijing and some measures will have to be taken.

EU mills expected to adjust outputs

EU and Turkish producers will realize that by not matching production to demand their positions have gotten worse. The EU market had 18-24 months of stability, but now prices are trending downwards as supply pressure is increasing. The EU mills will probably begin to adjust output once the second quarter numbers are out. India, Southeast Asia, the MENA countries and Turkey are facing difficult times ahead due to Chinese price competition.

Even CIS mills struggle to compete with Chinese

In fact, the competition in the market has been ratcheted up to unsustainable levels by the prices of Chinese origin materialss. Even the CIS mills seem to be refraining from trying to take business away from Chinese origin offers. The vast amounts of excess steel capacity in China will mean that we will likely continue to see trade barriers and antidumping measures against Chinese products be discussed and implemented.

Second half expected to be even more challenging amid extreme supply pressure

Overall, the current situation in the market is unstable. The outlook is bearish amid extreme supply pressure despite reasonable consumption. There are too many political and financial issues around the globe which leave a bitter taste and worry the markets. Significant adjustments in prices of scrap, pig iron, hot briquetted iron (HBI) and billet are expected. The second half of the year is going to be more challenging compared to the first half.

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19:00 – 23:00 Welcome Cocktail at Hilton Diagonal Mar Barcelona
March 31st, Monday 
09:00 – 09:30 Registration desk opens at the conference area

09:30 – 10:45

• Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS – Kim Marti
• SESSION ONE – The Unbalanced Post Recession
  Keynote Speaker:
  Xavier Sala-i-Martin, J. and M. Grossman Professor of Economics at Columbia University in New York / Chief Economic Advisor of the Center for Global Competitiveness and Performance at the World Economic Forum in Davos

10:45 – 11:15 Networking Break

11:15 – 12:30

SESSION TWO – Global Trends, Key Points and Critical Issues

• Long steel products market / Franc Cardona, Grupo Celsa
• US market coverage with focus on recent trade cases / Bernd Neuenkirchen, C&F International
• Steel trends and expectations: MENA and GCC / Bhaskar Dutta, Al Jazeera Steel Products
• Overview of Turkey’s steel exports and main issues faced / Namik Ekinci, Turkish Steel Exporters’ Association

12:30 – 14:00 Lunch Break

14:00 – 17:00 IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:00–15:45 Wire Rod & Rebar Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
  14:00–15:45 Billet Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
  16:00–17:00 Producers Committee (by invitation only)
  14:30–17:00 Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
  14:30–17:00 Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

 18:00 – 18:30 Busses leave for Gala Dinner Venue – Camp Nou

19:00 – 20:00 Camp Nou Corporate Tour
20:00 – 20:30 Presentation by Jordi Moix, FC Barcelona Board Member
20:30 – 22:00 Gala Dinner
22:00 Departure

April 1st, Tuesday 

09:30 – 11:00 SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen
Committees:
- Wire Rod & Rebar Suppliers Committee
- Billet Suppliers Committee
- Producers Committee
- Raw Material Suppliers Committee
- Traders Committee

*All presentations will be in English