The review, which covers the period from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, follows a request from Chinese steel producer Boxing Victory Metal Materials, asking the MOIT to review the existing antidumping duties. The current antidumping duties on the given products from Malaysia, Thailand and China are in a range between 9.79 percent and 28 percent depending on the exporter.

The products subject to the review currently fall under the codes 7312.10.91 and 7312.10.99.

The commission has found that the given products exported from Indonesia, Malaysia (except for Southern Steel), Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam at dumped prices appear to have caused material injury to the Australian industry. In addition, the commission stated that Indonesia-based company Pt Ispat Panca Putera did not make sales of rebar to Australia in the given period.

The final dumping margins determined are at the table below.

Indonesia

• Pt Ispat Panca Putera : Did not export
• Pt Putra Baja Deli        : 1.3%

Malaysia

• Ann Joo Steel Berhad                           :  9.2%
• Southern Steel                                        : negative 0.1%
• Alliance Steel, Amsteel and Masteel  :  9.2%
• Others                                                       : 26.2 %

Thailand

• Tata Steel : 2.1%
• Others       : 6.7%

Turkey

• Çolakoğlu         : 7.1%
• Kaptan Demir : 9.1%
• Kroman Çelik  : 8.5%
• Others               : 36.4%

Vietnam

• Vina Kyoei        : 9.6%

The products currently fall under the codes 7214.20.00, 7228.30.10, 7228.30.90, and 7228.60.10.

The commission has found that the given products exported from Malaysia (except for Southern Steel), Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam (except for Hoa Phat) at dumped prices appear to have caused material injury to the Australian industry. In addition, the commission stated that Indonesia-based companies Pt Ispat Panca Putera and Pt Putra Baja Deli did not make sales of rebar to Australia or exported with negligible dumped margins in the given period.

Accordingly, preliminary dumping margins are determined at

• 9.2 percent for Malaysia-based Alliance Steel, Amsteel Mills, Ann Joo Steel, Malaysia Steel Works
• 26.2 percent for all other Malaysian companies;
• 3.1 percent for Thailand-based Tata Steel Manufacturing (Thailand) Public Company Limited
• 6.7 percent for all other Thai exporters;
• 7.7 percent for Turkey-based Colakoglu Metalurji A.S,
• 8.6 percent for Turkey-based Kroman Celik Sanayii A.Ş.,
• 9.1 percent for Turkey-based Kaptan Demir Celik Endustrisi ve Ticaret A.Ş.
• 36.4 percent for all other Turkish producers;
• 9.5 percent for Vietnam-based Tung Ho Steel Vietnam Corporation, VAS Group Nghi Son Joint Stock Company and Vina Kyoei Steel Company,
• 17.3 percent for all other Vietnamese exporters.

The products currently fall under the codes 7214.20.00, 7228.30.10, 7228.30.90, and 7228.60.10.

The final report for the investigation, which covers the period between July 1, 2023 and June 30, 2024, will be published on December 18, 2025, instead of November 19, 2025.

The products, in various diameters up to and including 50 mm, subject to the investigation are classified under the Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers 7214.20.00, 7228.30.10, 7228.30.90, and 7228.60.10.

According to the MACC, illegal scrap exports have resulted in tax revenue losses of more than MYR 950 million ($224,33 million) over the past six years, undermining national fiscal stability and eroding market confidence. Emphasizing that scrap metal is essential for low-carbon steel production, MSA stated that the illegal outflow of this vital resource creates multiple risks for the domestic market including raw material shortages for steelmakers, increased input costs, reduced competitiveness, disrupted production volumes, and a negative impact on sustainable steel goals.

The global long steel products market is oversupplied and overcrowded. The situation has worsened and is now structural. The competition in the global market is predatory.  Margins are dead. The only strategy is cashflow and turnover. Whoever can ship first, wins. Whoever negotiates for $5/mt more, loses the order. Every confirmed business is a major success. Moreover, without the US market, competition may become brutal.

Latest US blanket 50 percent Section 232 duty marks unprecedented shift

The latest US decision to impose a blanket 50 percent Section 232 duty on all steel imports marks an unprecedented shift – one that severely impacts importers while handing a windfall to domestic producers. Although there was previously a similar measure targeting imports from Turkey, this universal application is unparalleled. What makes this especially jarring is its immediate enforcement, affecting cargoes due to arrive soon, offering no transition period or due process. This abruptness feels inconsistent with the values and principles we have long associated with the US marketplace – predictability, fairness, and rule of law.

New US decision cuts its market off from rest of world, importers handed long vacation

If the 50 percent Section 232 duty holds, it may ironically render the US the most expensive steel market globally, shutting it off from the world at a time when collaboration and balance are most needed. It seems importers in the US have been handed a long, scorching summer of vacation, just as they brace to absorb the financial fallout of all US-bound cargoes. These are extraordinary times and must be navigated with clarity, unity, and resolve.

Demand still weak in Europe and Turkey, with imports putting pressure on prices

Demand is still soft in the European market and imports are putting a ceiling on any potential price increases. Unless there is an actual pickup in end-user consumption, prices will hover at current levels or drop, especially if more cheap Asian billet flows in. Demand in Turkey is still lacking also, but more important is that, with the current iron ore and coal prices, there will be more supply pressure from Far Eastern and Southeast Asian suppliers. Far Eastern and Southeast Asian origin steel billet prices are going down almost every day.

Scrap-based producers falling behind in terms of costs

Scrap-based producers are getting priced out. Billet from Asia is cheaper than melting scrap. There is almost no point in running a melt-shop when you can just roll. This shift reshuffles power, as cheap billet exporters win and EAF-based mills are now considered high-cost producers.

Chinese long steel exporters start to push out Southeast Asians

Southeast Asian mills, who had dominated the market, are now being quietly pushed out by China. Chinese long product exports surged by over 100 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2025. Reduced blast furnace costs, falling domestic demand, and export subsidies mean this wave of Chinese exports will not slow as it is policy-driven, not market-driven. A serious displacement is taking place. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia are all fighting for markets. Even South Korean mills, who were deemed to be bulletproof previously, are now closing lines for the first time in decades. China is stable, but prices are not going up and their steel is cheap, hoping for new export markets. Oil prices are also weak which is good for some players in the steel market, terrible for others.

Market currently very unstable, outlook unsatisfactory, seems to depend on political decisions

The market is currently very unstable. No one is making money. Everyone is quoting, but very few are actually booking orders. The outlook is unsatisfactory and seems to depend on political decisions.

OECD: Some brighter prospects in ASEAN and MENA regions

The recently published OECD Steel Outlook 2025 states, “Demand in the OECD area will remain roughly constant, while Chinese demand will decline appreciably due to the downturn in construction and structural shifts in China’s economy. Prospects are brighter in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) areas, where demand will grow strongly.”

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At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that demand in the global long steel products market continues to lag behind supply. He added that the situation was getting worse because of China’s aggressive export policy and that Chinese exporters would continue to be aggressive, which of course would drive other Asian exporters to be aggressive also.

The IREPAS chairman said the situation in the global long steel products market is deteriorating, adding that there is huge uncertainty on what the next couple of quarters will bring for the global long products market, where it seems the situation will be extremely difficult.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: General market mood hopeful for improvement

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the committee meeting findings regarding the general situation in the global steel and raw material markets, noting that the markets have been struggling this year compared to the past few years amid the worsening of economies due to high inflation and interest rates. However, he stated that the general mood is hopeful for a return to something slightly more forward-looking and optimistic.

Regarding Western countries, he stated that high interest rates and inflation have been putting pressure on scrap generation in the US and the EU, and added that the interest rates in the EU are expected to be cut during the spring. With the anticipated increase in scrap demand due to electric arc furnace investments especially in the US, Canada and Europe, Mr. Björkman noted that scrap flows will change significantly in the next 10 years, regionalizing scrap generation where scrap demand is high. In addition, he stated that steel producers have started to look for alternatives to scrap like pig iron, HBI and DRI to cover their needs for raw material. Indicating that scrap generation in Europe is down by 15-50 percent depending on the part of the region, Björkman said that, with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), European scrap suppliers will try to keep scrap volumes within the regional market, reducing scrap exports from the region especially to Turkey, which operates mostly with electric arc furnaces and has significant demand for scrap.

Looking at China, noting that the country’s economy was expected to rebound after the Chinese New Year holiday but that these expectations did not materialize, he stated that China’s economy is going through a period of normalization. Meanwhile, pointing out that before the recent rebound iron ore prices had fallen to $100/mt CFR in the first quarter this year from the higher-than-expected level last year of $120/mt CFR, he said that the factors contributing to the price drop included high iron ore inventories at Chinese ports, slow demand and lower steel production. He concluded by saying that the market in China is adjusting to the lack of recovery of demand after the Chinese New Year holiday, adding that he expects iron ore prices to remain at quite high levels.

Traders at IREPAS: Global demand to be supplied locally, market conditions lead to regionalization

F. D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, stated that there is demand globally but that it will be supplied locally, adding that ongoing trade tensions, global conflicts and political instability have changed trade routes, resulting in regionalization.

Looking at the other factors that lead to regionalization, Mr. Baysal expressed the view that the EU’s safeguard measures will be extended for another two years and that its quota volume adjustment will be minimal if any. Regarding the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, he stated that it will put pressure on other countries, especially on blast furnace-based producers.

Remarking that Turkey’s export markets have been limited due to the US safeguard measures, the EU quota restrictions and the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the chairman of the traders committee stated that there are still some export opportunities for the country, including Syria, Iraq, eastern Europe, Africa and possibly Yemen. In addition, noting that the shipping crisis in the Red Sea has affected freight rates and container shipments a lot more than bulk shipments, shipments had to be shifted from containers to bulk, leading to additional costs.

Looking at China, Baysal said that the low steel demand in the country amid cancelled infrastructure projects has resulted in an increase in the country’s exports, with China dominating the global market with its lower prices and higher quality of steel, leading the strong competition. He also cited the Chinese Metallurgical Industry Institute’s prediction for a 1.7 percent drop in China’s steel demand in 2024, after a 3.3 percent decline in 2023, while further noting that China’s steel export volume increased by 14 percent year on year in the first quarter, though the value of its steel exports during this period was down by 20 percent year on year.

Producers at IREPAS: Low demand and Chinese exports weigh heavily on global steel market

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, shared with participants the conclusions reached by producers regarding the current situation in the markets. He said that the GCC region is more optimistic in terms of business given the big infrastructure projects in the pipeline there, while market conditions in Egypt are getting better and better as the country’s currency issue has mostly been resolved, though the Suez Canal crisis remains a challenge. In some EU markets, the economy is picking up and inflation seems to be under control, while in others demand still remains quite low.

Commenting on the situation in China, the hot topic at the conference, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that Chinese exports will definitely affect the global market negatively and will reach high levels as they did back in 2015. However, this time the number of export markets is limited because of protectionism and Chinese exports will be more problematic in terms of competition. He went on to say that, apart from China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam are also exporting heavily and competing with each other. This will affect other suppliers and, as one of the biggest long steel exporters, Turkey is already feeling the effects, the chairman of the producers committee noted. Chinese exports are also taking a toll on the EU market, which is also struggling with very low demand especially in the northern part of the region.

Other exporters to the EU have to deal with quota measures as well as the Chinese competition. Cebecioğlu said the EU will most probably extend its quotas for another two years and, with new suppliers such as the GCC and North Africa, things will be tough this year before picking up and getting better next year.

Responding to a question regarding how Turkish mills managed to increase production in the first quarter of the current year, the committee chairman said that, in terms of sales, the first quarter this year was much better than the corresponding period last year. Turkish mills were able to sell considerable amounts to the EU and, with the quotas opening up, they had a window for exports. Commenting on the reconstruction works in Turkey’s southern region which was devastated by earthquakes last year, Cebecioğlu stated, “Construction activity has already started in the region, and it is mainly the mills in the region that are benefitting from all this. Since export activity is very low, this gives these mills a little bit of a break, and also funding should not be a problem as these projects are being financed by the government.”

It seems like everybody in the global long steel products is waiting for some really positive developments to materialize. However, unfortunately, there is no substantive positive news coming out of China. Nevertheless, the country is driving iron ore prices and coal prices, while many long product mills are working to keep margins between scrap and finished products on the plus side. Meanwhile, China is reporting that rebar produced by both EAF-based and BF-based producers in the country are being transacted without positive margins.

Longs demand in EU hit by variety of negative factors

EU import quotas for wire rod were oversubscribed by early January. Overall, demand was down by 17 percent for reinforcing bars and down 10 percent for wire rods in Europe, but Germany was affected the worst. The reasons are, of course, high interest rates, higher costs and the increase of bureaucracy due to environmental regulations by Brussels and local governments. EU mills’ prices have increased slightly due to costs. Going forward, a lot of wire rod and reinforcing bar shipments are expected from North Africa and Turkey.

Turkey’s longs exports to Israel under threat, new safeguard impacts wire rod imports

The political dispute between Israel and Turkey may affect Turkish mills’ biggest export market. The recently announced safeguard measure against wire rod imports in Turkey has practically closed opportunities for wire rod imports since the import duty is quite high for the regularly purchased origins, while the quotas will be viable businesswise only for supplies from some countries. It is highly likely that imports from Egypt and Malaysia will now be excluded from the Turkish market. Russian exports will also be halted unless the Russian mills agree to absorb the $175/mt tax.

Positive sentiment prevails in US longs market

Demand in the US has not changed much. However, as interest rates are coming down, sentiment in the markets is upbeat. The mood is positive in particular in residential  construction. As for imports, there are only two countries, Egypt and Algeria, that are exporting some volumes to the US. The long-standing traditional exporter, Turkey, is not  competitive anymore due to very high antidumping rates.

Longs producers in US happy with prices and volumes

The US is certainly an outlier, spreading higher prices to Canada and Mexico.  The margins between prices of scrap and sheet are euphoric, while no long product producer in the US can complain about selling prices and less-than-decent volumes.

Interest rate cuts, if enacted, could give boost

Inflation seems to be going down in the US and the EU. If central banks start reducing interest rates, it may give a serious boost to economies once again.

Fears of recession and geopolitical uncertainties add to negativity

Other than the abovementioned factors, there are not many positives in the market due to the seasonal slowdown in most of the world and recessions in many countries as well  as political uncertainties. There are two full-scale wars going on and Red Sea interruptions have now added to the cost of shipping, making business even harder. Generally,  there is a high risk of markets becoming even more local due to trade route disruptions such as those in the Red Sea and also in the Panama Canal.

Competition becomes more and more local

Competition in the market is becoming more and more local. Most would say it is difficult to compete as you start with a loss and stay with a loss if you transact any new kind of business. Some close-by repetitive business keeps most mills afloat.

Market status mostly stable but low, outlook is challenging

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as mostly stable but on the low side, while the outlook is challenging and slow.

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The global long steel products market is still characterized by unpredictability. China’s impact on the global markets is still an open question and this contributes to the unpredictability for the second quarter. It seems that customers heard too much talk of recession last year and were convinced that all construction would stop in 2023. Actually, it looks like Europe managed to avoid recession in 2022 and even in January Germany showed economic growth. Core inflation is going down and the situation looks much better than expected in Europe and the US.

European market still extremely quiet after the holiday period

The European market is extremely quiet since all clients have just come back from the holidays. Mills are not able find customers as they had all bought their requirements by the end of November in order not to be taken by surprise in the new year. New private housing projects in Germany have almost fallen to zero. The high costs of products combined with 8-10 percent inflation and consequent higher mortgage rates in addition to the lack of workers have made calculations unpredictable for investors. Moreover, the government has reduced funding for social housing despite its declared goal of building 400,000 apartments every year. Last year, they reached approximately 50 percent of that goal and for this year the expectation is even significantly less. On the other hand, public and industrial projects are still fine, but increasing costs, bureaucracy and appeals against every new big project of whatever nature as well as the lack of labour force delays for almost every one of them.

Overcapacity in EU cut and bend sector, price rises difficult, imports coming from N. Africa

Overcapacity prevails in the cut and bend industry in the EU. But instead of slimming down, market players bid for every deal even if they speculate on a price drop of €100/mt. The behaviour of a few players is pulling the whole market down and still leaves no room for producers to increase prices. There are imports of wire rods coming to Europe, but instead of Asia they are now arriving from North African countries like Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia. The volumes are enough to keep the market prices suppressed. At the same time, however, the EU import quotas are in general not approaching anything like maximum utilization.

Situation in North America quickly becomes positive

The situation in North America has become positive very quickly and business in the US market is stable. Most of the sales are closed by domestic mills, due to the very competitive prices offered, and also as almost all new infrastructure projects have a “Buy America” clause. Steel mills have had an uptick in orders at somewhat higher prices, which have mostly been driven by scrap price increases. Turkish buying ahead of the January buy-week helped drive up scrap prices in the US. US ports are still congested, making imports even more cumbersome. Whether real hard consumption will also provide support is an open question. The mills in the US are saying that infrastructure consumption increases are yet to come, starting in the second half of the year.  Imports are priced at levels which do not support a switch from domestic products to imports, while lead times are also “normal” for domestic materials.

Question mark remains over demand in Latin America amid political instability

Elsewhere in the Americas, in general the good news is fewer aggressive offers from Southeast Asia for all products. Meanwhile, there is still a big question mark over demand in Latin America due to the political instability in several countries in the region. Some traditionally non-exporting countries in Latin America have started to look to the international market in the past few months.

All Turkish mills are struggling to export

Currently, all mills in Turkey are struggling to export. Strong competition from Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Malaysia and Indonesia and offers heard from GCC countries are making it very difficult for Turkish mills to export. Of course, on top of all that, protectionist measures such as quotas, Section 232, normal values and AD/CVD rates make exports almost impossible. Increased energy costs and higher scrap prices are also putting pressure on prices and make it difficult for Turkey to compete.

Devastating earthquakes in Turkey and Syria also hit steel sector in Iskenderun

Devastating earthquakes hit southeastern Turkey and northern Syria on February 6. The fire which damaged Iskenderun port will hamper trade from the region. Following the natural disaster, market players will have to wait and see, but in the very short term mills in the Iskenderun area are not receiving energy for their production activities.

Raw material and scrap prices rise after New Year holiday, demand rebounds strongly

Raw material costs are very high and scrap prices rose unexpectedly after the New Year holiday. Another important factor is that scrap prices in Russia went up and for the first time in a long while Russian mills are not aggressive in exports. January indeed saw a strong demand rebound for raw materials. This was led primarily by China, which dramatically removed its remaining Covid restrictions and also stimulated its economy.

Stronger production rates in January as recession seems to have been avoided

While the markets had been optimizing for recession with low inventories and lower production rates towards the end of last year, January saw stronger production rates as an energy-induced recession seemed to have been avoided. Energy prices fell as well as logistics costs. Buying activity was much stronger as inventories were depleted and had to be reprogrammed for stronger production rates. Both of these factors on top of decent demand levels contributed to rebounding raw material prices. Europe looks much better than previously expected. Also, energy in storage is at high levels, while the weather has been fairly mild.

Temporary absence of Chinese export offers amid local market improvement

China is back from its New Year holidays, and so there is some activity. The small signs of an improvement in the Chinese market have led to a temporary absence of its offers from the international market. Furthermore, energy and logistics costs have declined a little, providing some relief to many players in the market.

German and European domestic prices equal to or lower than import prices

In Europe, German domestic and other European prices are lower or equal to import prices. Imports are almost at a standstill as can be seen from the utilization of quotas. As there are almost no imports, this leaves room for domestic mills to raise their prices as soon as seasonal demand picks up.

Competition again becomes more regional

Following the aggressive presence of Asian countries in export markets at the end of 2022, it is reasonable to say that competition has once again become more regional. However, there is still strong competition for Turkish producers as there are not many places where they can sell their products.

Current status of market still unstable and fluctuating

The current status of the market is still unstable and fluctuating. No one can predict the level of raw material and energy costs going forward this year. Plans may change instantly.

EU’s CBAM to start to have an impact later this year

Another aspect which importers in to the EU market must face shortly is the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Although there is still some time before it will be a real cost factor, the bureaucratic hurdles will start in October this year.

Market outlook remains unpredictable and challenging

Under the above circumstances, the outlook for the global steel long products market is unpredictable and challenging, though everything points out to a market turn any time soon, at least in the EU.

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At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the situation in the global long steel products market is deteriorating as we have entered a rising-cost business cycle, adding that the situation is dramatic and huge uncertainty lies ahead.

The IREPAS chairman said the current crisis is a once-in-a-generation event with mills and consumers facing an unprecedented increase in energy prices, particularly in the EU, but also almost everywhere else. In addition to the energy crisis, there is also a logistics crisis, he said, adding that production cuts are expected soon, which will balance the drop in demand caused by higher interest rates and costs, as well as by shortages of many items.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Lower scrap demand prevails in market, except in South Asia

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the committee meeting findings stating that energy prices, especially in the EU, were the main topic of the conference. He added that during summer and autumn all-time record high levels were recorded for natural gas and electricity prices. The committee chairman indicated that interest rates have been hiked to tame inflation, pushing the US dollar to an all-time high against other currencies.

Commenting on scrap demand, Mr. Björkman said that US scrap demand had slowed down and that mills there are running at slightly lower capacities, pressuring scrap and iron ore prices, adding that supply of new production scrap which was previously in good shape has been slower. Also, for China, he noted that, despite a significant stimulus, demand for steel and raw materials has been weakening, with the outlook remaining negative. Scrap demand is significantly lower in some parts of the EU, and this has been offset by Southeast Asian demand where energy problems are not so severe. Also, logistics are another issue for the EU market given the all-time low water levels on the Rhine River, as Europe’s river system is an important part of the EU’s scrap exports.

According to the chairman of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee, the demand situation in Turkey, which has also been struggling with high energy prices, is under pressure from alternatives to scrap such as semi-finished products, which it has been possible to get at lower price levels. Mr. Björkman explained that Turkey is not only buying Russian billet, but also ex-Asia billet, and that the pressure coming from cheaper billet is affecting Turkish mills’ ability to buy scrap. He added that, thanks to the alternative destinations for scrap such as some Asian countries, the pressure on prices in the market which Turkey was able to exert has been mitigated, though these alternative destinations are not likely to become permanent markets, and so Turkey will maintain its role in setting a benchmark in the international scrap market.

Regarding the possibility of a ban on scrap exports by the EU, Björkman said that it is becoming a likelihood and that any potential ban seemed to be targeting non-OECD countries at first, but now OECD countries seem likely to be included as well. The European Parliament will vote on a ban on November 17 and it could come into force in 2026. He added that the scrap tonnage recycled in the EU is too large; even if a few million tons will likely remain in the EU, the rest will need to find other markets.

Traders at IREPAS: Trade routes are changing due to both war and energy crisis

F. D. Baysal, chairman of the traders committee, commented on the changing trade routes for Russian steel after the start of the war in Ukraine, indicating that Russian steel is mostly going to China, Egypt, Taiwan and Turkey, and “to our surprise 3.5 million mt of Russian slab is still going to the EU, to the mills that are Russian-owned”, he added. He went on to talk about energy prices, another topic of heated discussion throughout the conference, pointing out that the EU is affected the most, but even within the EU not every country is affected to the same extent.

According to Mr. Baysal, in Germany the cost of energy stands at $470/MWh, while it is at $200/MWh in Spain, which is similar to Turkey. Although energy prices have risen worldwide, there are countries with serious advantages like the US, an exporter of gas, GCC countries, and also China, since they are getting Russian gas, as he reminded participants.

The committee chairman said that the traders committee does not expect a lot of changes in the EU policy regarding steel import quotas for Turkey, “I don’t think EU mills will allow that,” he added. Mr. Baysal indicated that some suppliers such as North African countries and the UAE are now exporting to the EU and will eventually gain some market share in the region. He stated that the markets for Turkey are limited, Turkish supplies are mainly taken by countries that are not as much affected by the energy crisis like China or India. Apart from this, access to the US market is limited due to Section 232 and to the EU because of the quota.

Regarding steel imports into the US, Baysal said he does not expect a huge increase in imports, as there is not a strong increase in demand, while he added that there are countries that are exempt from Section 232 like Mexico, Canada and the EU, though  EU has a disadvantage in terms of energy.

Answering a question on semi-finished steel imports from Southeast Asia to Turkey and Europe, the traders committee chairman said that he does not think it is going to be permanent, as, when energy costs go back to normal, the EU will buy from its traditional sources. However, he admitted that North African countries such as Egypt and Algeria or GCC countries such as the UAE will gain some market share in the EU and may be able to hold on to it.

Producers at IREPAS: Energy prices and inflation put pressure on production

Murat Cebecioglu, the chairman of IREPAS and of the IREPAS producers committee, informed the participants about the situation in certain countries, stating that many countries have been negatively affected by inflation rates, energy prices and declining steel production, while the US market remains stable, with its imports going down, an increase expected in its rebar consumption amid new infrastructure projects, and more capacity coming from domestic micro mills. He also noted that, in some other countries such as Qatar and Kuwait, the situation seems a bit better with some infrastructure projects planned.

Commenting on declining steel production, Mr. Cebecioglu said production cuts are already seen which will probably balance the drop in demand, though huge uncertainty remains for the next few quarters, also fueled by some political issues, adding that doing business will be extremely difficult not only in the EU, but elsewhere also.

He went on to say that for Turkey energy costs are the main issue causing a reduction in production and uncertainty is not helping mills to make long-term plans.Regarding Turkey’s sales prospects, “Right after the start of the war, Turkey was able to sell huge quantities to the EU, but now the EU has found other sources that are not included in its quota system,” the committee chairman noted. He underlined that, today, with Asian countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia selling to the EU with CFR prices which are lower than Turkey’s FOB prices, “there is no way Turkey can compete”.

Answering a question regarding the disturbance caused in the markets by Russian supplies, Cebecioglu commented that, from 2024, Russian slab and billet will be banned in the EU and Canada’s announcement that it will sanction any imported steel produced from Russian material causes hesitation to use Russian material. He added that Russian exports are disturbing prices in many markets and producers globally are suffering, with only limited markets remaining for sales opportunities.