At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the global long products market has been slowing down in general, which is putting pressure on producers. He added that demand for reinforcing bars and wire rods remains very weak and there is strong pressure on prices from the new exporters who are in the market with very aggressive offers and who are not subject to antidumping or countervailing duty measures so far.

The IREPAS chairman said protectionism still prevails as the EU has extended its safeguard measures for another year, which is clear proof that world trade is no longer as it was defined by the Uruguay Round and will continue with its current protectionist structure, which will exert pressure on developing countries. He also added that the CBAM in the EU will replace the current safeguard measures in the region within 12 months.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Situation in China exerts huge impact on global market

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, stated that construction activities in China were slowing down, while steel production remained at high levels despite government restrictions, which has increased the demand for iron ore in the country. The high levels of steel production in China lead to an increase in its exports, negatively impacting the global market. He added that steel production in the country is expected to be cut during the winter season, which may provide a bright spot for the global market going forward, especially for Turkey which is struggling to compete with China’s competitive prices. Noting that the Chinese economy has been struggling for a while, Björkman said that the recent monetary policy easing and stimulus measures in the country to boost the real estate and steel industries will not be enough to boost demand and prices in China.

Looking at Turkey, commenting that domestic production rates are slower than last year due to difficulties such as the high inflation and the hike in interest rates which Turkish mills are facing, he noted that the industry continues to generate demand. However, the production costs from energy are expected to decline, which would positively impact steel production rates.

Focusing on scrap, noting that the US, which still outperforms the rest of the world in economic and business terms, keeps generating decent scrap volumes, while the EU will continue to generate low volumes of scrap, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee stated that the rising volumes of ex-US scrap supply to Asia were supported by lower container freight rates.

Traders at IREPAS: EU may adjust quotas amid higher long product imports

F. D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, stated that the situation has changed dramatically in the EU steel market due to high interest rates, while investments in construction and consequently steel demand and prices have moved down considerably. Stressing that the EU protects its steel market with safeguard measures, he stated that increased long product imports do not carry as much risk as the surge in flat product imports. He said that the EU may tighten future quota allocations for ‘other countries’ as the long product exports of Egypt and Algeria into the region have increased. In addition, the chairman of the traders committee stated that the subsidies provided under “decarbonization targets” will continue to increase in the  EU, which evaluates the governmental support in the other countries as unfair.Continuing with China, he stated that Chinese steel mills have not reduced steel production in accordance with government restrictions, raising concerns for global suppliers, as China’s exports will increase if its production cannot be utilized domestically. Even though he said he does not believe that Chinese mills will cut production, he added that, if they do so, it will not affect scrap imports but will reduce iron ore demand as 90 percent of the country’s steel production is blast furnace-based.

Noting that the EU continues to put pressure on Russian products with sanctions, Baysal stated that Turkey’s rebar exports have decreased as the country cannot use sanctioned Russian billets to produce products for shipment overseas. Russian billet was at first used in the reconstruction of the earthquake-hit zone in southern Turkey, while now the region’s needs are supplied by domestic production. Noting that Turkey has lost most of its traditional steel export markets, the chairman of the traders committee said that the Turkish industry needs government support as the mills are facing the US Section 232 tariffs and the EU’s safeguard measures.

Producers at IREPAS: Longs market is slowing down amid weak demand 

Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, stated that the long steel market has been slowing down amid weak demand which is putting immense pressure on prices. He talked about the general situation in the market, pointing out that previous importers such as Egypt, the GCC and Algeria have now become exporters. Since these countries are not subject to protectionist measures for the time being, they are exporting anywhere they can, especially claiming the market share of Turkey, which is being squeezed by protectionism all over the place, he noted.

Focusing on the Turkish market, Mr. Cebecioglu said there are many unknowns for the future, while protectionism in particular is a big issue for Turkey whose exports are hindered by Canada, the EU and the US. “There are only a few markets left where there is demand and everybody is focusing on those markets,” the IREPAS chairman said. Regarding the Turkish government’s change of monetary policy and starting to raise interest rates, he indicated that this gives hope to the market, though he went on to say that the local market is doing alright, but this will depend on whether the government will continue to increase interest rates.

With Turkey facing some difficulties such as the energy crisis, high production costs and inflation, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that electricity prices are a major factor for Turkish mills and, compared to oil and gas-rich countries, competing has become impossible for Turkey. Replying to a question about possible steps by the government to support the Turkish steel industry, the producers committee chairman pointed out that, under today’s economic conditions, subsidization also leads to another problem, namely, countervailing measures.

Commenting on the longs and semi-finished imports from the ASEAN region, Cebecioğlu said that ASEAN-based mills have been exporting all around the world including to destinations such as Central America, the EU and South America, adding that, together with the newcomers, they have taken all of Turkey’s market shares.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Swissôtel The Bosphorus

Day 2: Monday, September 18, 2023

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:30 – 11:30                    SESSION ONE: Critical changes in the global long steel markets

- Keynote speech:

• Figures and comments from WTO report
• Illicit nature of EU’s decarbonization subsidies
• How protectionism has evolved
• Chinese steel industry’s restructuring and opening up to global markets
• New threat: Circumvention
• Turkish steel industry: Standstill period
• Threats from US

Ugur Dalbeler, CEO, Colakoglu Metalurji / Deputy Chairman, Turkish Steel Exporters’ Association / The Board Member, World Steel Association

- Long products market outlook

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group 

- GCC market outlook

• The announced projects in KSA – when will they start and how it will change the market
• Exports from GCC
• Overall potential longs demand supply balance in GCC

Sunil Kumar, Chief Marketing Officer, Jindal Shadeed Iron and Steel

- Chinese steel market outlook

• Expectations in Chinese steel market

Huseyin Ocakci, Assistant General Manager, CIEC

11:30 – 11:50                     Networking break

11:50 – 12:45                     SESSION TWO: World economy in short, medium and long run

- Keynote Speaker: Prof. Dr. Ozgur Demirtas, Chair Professor of Finance, Sabanci University

12:45 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

19:00 – 24:00                  Gala dinner at Divan Kuruçeşme

Day 3: Tuesday, September 19, 2023

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the war in Ukraine has changed sentiment in the global long steel products market as well as fundamentally altering the flow of raw materials and finished products almost overnight, adding that the market is currently distorted.

The IREPAS chairman said the situation has created many new opportunities, but also major imbalances. He went on to explain that lately some oversupply has been observed here and there in the global long steel products market and added that Russian ferrous materials have been trading at a steep discount to other suppliers, with fewer destinations available.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: A lot of challenges going forward, downside risks remain

Jens Björkman, chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, listed the factors affecting the steel and raw materials markets recently such as the pandemic, the semi-conductor shortage, the war in Ukraine, the shortages of raw materials and components, high inflation rates, monetary tightening and the impact of the zero-covid policy in China on growth, which have all contributed to a really shaky period, he noted. High inflationary pressure is also forcing the industry to slow down, while the idling of some plants is expected in the coming months at some steel-using producers, signaling negative developments in terms of demand. Mr. Björkman said that there are still pockets of supply shortages in the automotive sector, where production is not in line with demand, since, while demand is strong, production remains slow because of component shortages, and this in turn leads to a deficit in scrap generation. All of these factors indicate that there are a lot of challenges going forward, the committee chairman underlined.

“For the past year and a half, we have been trading at around $400s/mt. However, in the last two months we have seen price movements that we haven’t seen since 2008, amid trade distortion and the impact of the war on actual trade. We have seen $200/mt decreases because prices first increased by as much, though it is a short-term effect,” he said. The raw material suppliers committee indicated that it expects that the market will stay at these levels for a while as the current price levels are considered tradable, with a little downside risk amid the oversupply of scrap.

Looking at the EU, Mr. Björkman said that the region is under pressure from energy costs, while there are also a lot of investment activities in the EU, either to shift production to electric arc furnaces from blast furnaces and in greenfield investments for green steel. He went on to say that building new electric arc furnaces is also going on in North America and Turkey, and these markets which are undergoing backward integration will need to secure raw materials.

Regarding the financing of the trading of scrap and other raw materials, the chairman of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee indicated that financing has been under pressure in the recent period when prices have been very strong, and insurance companies have not been willing to take added risks. He further stated that, with commodity prices doubling, companies have not been able to insure trade goods, while the banking system has become very sensitive in relation to sanctions and is more hesitant as regards the metals trade.

Commenting on the pig iron shortage, Björkman said that the shortage remains but pointed out that India has introduced an export duty on pig iron and that demand has slowed down in China due to its zero-covid policy, while at the moment the effect of the pig iron shortage on scrap prices has eased. He added that India has also imposed export duty on iron ore, but, since India’s iron ore exports are not significant, this will not have a massive effect on iron ore availability in export markets, although it will support domestic supply in the country.

Traders at IREPAS: Globalization has taken a big hit, things will never be the same

F. D. Baysal, chairman of the traders committee, said that regionalization, in other words protectionism, started with the Trump era in the US, followed by the EU decision to impose steel quotas. Later, this movement continued in a new dimension with Covid when producers realized that they should have inventories ready because of possible unforeseen interruptions, and also the supply chain issues which started with the pandemic escalated with ports being congested and many products arriving at the same time, he noted. “Ukraine was really a major addition to these problems and took the whole thing to another level, with EU manufacturers depending on Russian and Ukrainian supplies for their production. Globalization has taken a big hit and things will never be the same,” Mr. Baysal said.

Commenting on the effects of the war, the traders committee chairman said that initially in the first two months everybody panicked and that is why prices were jacked up, but later, especially after Russian steel products and billet started to reach markets that do not recognize the sanctions, the rise in prices eased. “I think sanctions will increase, but not before the year-end. Circumventing US measures is not possible as there are serious precautions, and it is the same for EU measures as well. However, payments are facilitated through intermediary countries like Switzerland and Dubai,” he stated. Baysal went on to say that unevenly applied sanctions create certain advantages for the countries which do not recognize the sanctions. “I don’t think there is an absolute winner, but countries that don’t recognize the sanctions have the upper hand, though for a short time,” he added.

“Higher freight rates and congestion, especially in the US, is a significant factor in higher steel prices. Congestion will ease slowly. It may take six months to a year and freight rates really have to ease as well. Container prices have doubled, even quadrupled. It is not sustainable. Container lines deliberately pulled old containers out of circulation, causing shortages. Others will come in and produce containers. The situation will change soon. There will also be more ships being built and that will change the whole equation, but it will take time, so higher prices are here to stay,” he explained regarding freight costs.

Producers at IREPAS: Outlook is positive, good days are ahead

Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, mentioned two major problems facing the long steel market, mainly the war in Ukraine and China’s zero-covid policy, adding that the problem in China will probably be resolved quicker than the war in Ukraine, giving breathing space for all. He said that the war had shifted all fundamentals: the supply-demand balance has been broken, supply chains disrupted, prices have increased, there was panic buying in the EU and some countries bought more than they needed.

Talking about certain countries in particular, Mr. Cebecioglu said that peace talks are in progress in Yemen, one of the top three export markets for Turkey. If they bring results, demand will pick up in this market, while in the Philippines, after the formation of the new cabinet, things are expected to be much better. Looking at the Middle East, the UAE produces more than it consumes, so it exports to many countries. In the GCC region, countries that used to be importers have now become exporters, such as Oman which is exporting to the EU in good quantities. When it comes to Turkey, he underlined that it exports to many countries and the war “gave some small chance to Turkey as it is the only alternative” in the absence of Russia and Ukraine. Although exports to Southeast Asia have not been possible for Turkey this year because of China’s presence there, Turkey got the opportunity to replace the supply from Ukraine and Russia, though it was also negatively affected itself, since these two countries are major suppliers. He also pointed out that, with the EU redistributing the quotas of Russia and Belarus to other countries, Turkey’s volumes for the EU have increased.

Commenting on whether Turkey is becoming less competitive in the face of Section 232 measures being replaced with quotas for the EU, the UK and Japan, the IREPAS chairman explained that the US has always been a good market for Turkey, though it had not been possible to sell to this market for the last couple of months as prices were so high at around $900/mt, “but today it is quite possible and deals have already been made with the US. These countries are not an obstacle for us. Selling to the US is always about pricing,” he added. As for the current situation regarding Turkey’s long steel exports, Cebecioglu said that, as the local markets slowed down in most countries, along with increasing prices, Turkish suppliers have a hard time foreseeing the future. He explained that Israel, one of the top three export markets for Turkish long products, has not bought anything for more than a month or so, but now they are coming back to the market, the same as Yemen. “We are in the clear, I think. In the coming weeks, things will be alright,” he affirmed.

Regarding freight rates and shipping costs, the producers committee chairman indicated that freight rates have more than doubled and vessels are waiting a minimum of three to four weeks at ports, resulting in “a huge effect on the steel trade using bulk vessels. When you look at the Baltic Dry Index, it seems more or less the same as last year but China’s Covid restrictions have blocked many ships out of business, creating a big problem, and I don’t know how soon this can be resolved,” he added.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Four Seasons Hotel Bosphorus Istanbul

Day 2: Monday, May 30, 2022

09:00 – 09:15                   Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:15 – 10:00                    SESSION ONE: Critical changes in global long steel markets

- Long products market outlook

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group 

- Turkish steel industry overview

Dr. Veysel Yayan, Secretary General, Turkish Iron and Steel Producers’ Association (TISPA)

- The revision of the waste shipment regulation and its impacts on trade of steel scrap – a recyclers’ perspective

Olivier Francois, President, European Recycling Industries’ Confederation (EuRIC)

10:00 – 10:20                     Networking break

10:20 – 11:10                     SESSION TWO: Critical changes in global long steel markets – EU, Ukraine and China

- EU steel market outlook

• Outlook for EU economy and steel industry
• EU steel imports, the impact of safeguard measures on them, and perspectives on recent and future modifications of such measures in view of the ongoing war in Ukraine
• Impact of energy costs (natural gas/electricity) on EU-based EAFs and perspectives on the supply shortage in the EU

Alessandro Sciamarelli, Director of Economic Studies and Market Analysis, European Steel Association (EUROFER)

- Chinese steel market outlook

Huseyin Ocakci, Middle East General Manager, CIEC

- Ukrainian economy and steel industry: current situation and outlook (online presentation)

• Brief overview of the military situation and scenarios for its development.
• Overview of the Ukrainian economy: current situation and expectations.
• Estimated damage caused by the war to infrastructure and the economy as a whole.
• Ukrainian steel industry: supply and demand situation and outlook.
• Steel exports from Ukraine: risks and challenges.

Roman Perepelytsia, Head of Strategy and Business Development, Metinvest Holding

11:10 – 11:30                     Networking break

11:30 – 12:30                    SESSION THREE: Global economic developments and expectations

The Current State of Developed and Emerging Markets

Prof. Dr. Ozgur Demirtas, Chair Professor of Finance, Sabanci University 

12:30 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

19:30 – 23:00                   Gala dinner at Four Seasons Hotel Bosphorus

Day 3: Tuesday, May 31, 2022

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

The 86th IREPAS meeting conference will be held at the Four Seasons Hotel Bosphorus in Istanbul, on May 29-31 in conjunction with the SteelOrbis Spring’22 Conference. You may find all details including the agenda and registration information at the following link.

Of the many deserving long-term contributors to the IREPAS community, several were awarded plaques at the gala dinner held at the 79th meeting in Istanbul, which marked the 35th anniversary of the foundation of IREPAS.

At the opening of the conference which celebrated the 35th year of this bi-annual meeting, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that free and fair trade is one of the few unambiguously good principles and allows resources to flow to their point of best use, helping countries and companies to thrive and prosper.

Mr. Cebecioğlu emphasized that IREPAS has continuously been an advocate for free and fair trade, while admitting that these are unfortunately difficult times for world trade. The IREPAS chairman said that the unilateral US tariffs, which are unjustified and in contravention of World Trade Organisation rules and principles, are inspired by protectionism. The IREPAS chairman stated that there is a certain overcapacity problem in the industry, adding, however, that many countries faced with such tariffs are not the source of the problem but, on the contrary, are equally hurt by it. Mr Cebecioğlu went on to say that it is very difficult to negotiate when trade measures are used as a political weapon and to threaten other countries. The IREPAS chairman concluded by saying that, in spite of such drastic developments, business sentiment in the market is still positive, though with fluctuations in certain areas due to ongoing instability.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products and steel billets, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw material suppliers at IREPAS : Strong demand observed for scrap

Jens Björkman, chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, said that ferrous scrap prices have seen some volatility in the past months but generally the scrap market is building on a positive trend seen since 2016. He added that, with Chinese domestic steel consumption rising and better capacity utilization rates around the world, raw material suppliers have been enjoying stronger scrap demand. Regarding scrap destinations, the raw material suppliers committee chairman said that there has been growth seen in demand from Vietnam, Brazil, Mexico and Bangladesh.

According to Mr. Björkman, due to import tariffs in the US, scrap demand in the US domestic market has been stronger and, while scrap prices in the US dropped by $20/mt in September, they are likely to rebound in October. Regarding the import quotas in the EU, Björkman said that this has also resulted in improved demand in the domestic market. As a consequence, scrap supply has tightened slightly and volumes set aside for export have decreased. However, he stressed that uncertainty exists regarding the future of the trade measures in the EU as they have a February deadline.

Mr Björkman also commented that the inflation and the devaluation of the currency in Turkey, the epicenter of the scrap universe, slowed down Turkish domestic demand for steel products, though lately steel exports have kept production at elevated levels and Turkish demand for scrap has been maintained. He stated that the possibility of a slowing down in scrap demand in Turkey will potentially have a negative impact on scrap prices.

Traders at IREPAS: Trade measures and possibility of additional tariffs under the spotlight

Representing the IREPAS traders committee, F.D. Baysal said that the traders committee focused on trade measures, discussing whether any additional tariffs might come into effect which he finds unlikely. Regarding possible trade measures by Canada, Mr. Baysal said that Canada is rightfully protecting its industry from the diversion of trade which was originally targeting the US market. “I hope they will not go overboard and kill trade with other countries”, he added. The committee chairman underlined that in a protectionist environment “what is going to suffer is quality along with price”, saying that however, it will be difficult to maintain protectionist measures in the long run.

The committee chairman indicated that producers in the US are enjoying their best period, but not producers in other parts of the world. “In China, the economy and production is improving. Most of the production will eventually  turn into exports. He stated that he was very optimistic about the ability of China’s environmental policy to reduce production, adding though that he has learned that China will build 40 new electric arc furnaces, meaning that even less pollutant Chinese production capacity will increase.

Commenting on the graphite electrode situation, Baysal said that electrode prices are still high right now and that the traders committee does not expect any supply shortage. He added that the committee thinks iron ore prices will probably remain steady, while scrap prices will come under downward pressure due to the demand situation in Turkey and possibly Argentina.

Producers at IREPAS: The name of the game today is protectionism

Mr Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS and also of the IREPAS producers committee, stated, “The name of the game today is protectionism. It has become a bargaining chip”. Mr Cebecioglu said that the 3 percent growth and the growing private construction in Spain along with similar situation in Portugal are good news for the long products producers. As the recovery is in progress for the Greek economy, there is positive trend in Bulgaria and good fundamentals are suppoorting the market in GCC, the sentiment in the market is positive he added. Mr Cebecioglu stressed that Turkish mills are flexible and will find new markets to replace the US, though he added that producers in general are concerned that there will be an even further surge in protectionist measures if countries do not come together to discuss the issue at the World Trade Organization (WTO) level.

Regarding the price increases and expectations of higher profits for steel producers in the US following the introduction of trade measures, Mr. Cebecioglu said that the US mills are effectively shaping US trade policy.

Commenting on the retroactive duties Canada imposed on Turkish rebar, the IREPAS chairman remarked that Canada has started three cases against Turkey within one year, adding that the producers committee does not know what to expect concerning Canada’s measures on steel imports in response to the US measures, but he believes this will become clearer within a couple of weeks.

Mr. Cebecioglu stated that the US has to continue importing rebar as its domestic capacity is not sufficient. As a result, a lot of countries are expected to increase their share in the US market, such as Portugal and Spain, and he added that even Bulgaria has started to export rebar to the US. Regarding Turkey, with the US market closed to Turkish imports, the IREPAS chairman said that Yemen has become the number one export market for Turkish long products, and he also underlined that Turkey has a very structured domestic rebar market and so the absence of the US as an export market will not have any downward effect on Turkey’s production. He also listed the Far Eastern and North African countries as target markets for Turkey.

Ioannis Meimaroglu, Chairman of the Raw Materials Suppliers’ Committee, confirmed that a record high number of 42 representatives attended the committee meeting in Istanbul. Meimaroglou stated that the raw material suppliers fully understand the difficulties steel producers are facing in selling finished products under prevailing market conditions, and their efforts to reduce their costs, including the costs of raw material. He went on to emphasize that scrap suppliers are indeed trying to reduce their scrap collection prices, while adding that they are facing some major issues. First of all, he pointed to the difficulty presented by domestic market competition in any country where scrap demand increases because of the introduction of new steel capacities, or because the winter is coming, or because steel mills want to take advantage of low scrap prices.

Mr. Meimaroglou went on to say that scrap prices are influenced by prices of other raw materials, including iron ore and steel billet, which can be used – as nowadays – as an alternative when prices allow it. He said that it is impossible to achieve the greater degree of stability that scrap suppliers are seeking in order to better plan their medium-term activity. Due to unpredictable market conditions, scrap suppliers are keeping their inventories low, which in turn results in increased volatility. He also said that, when scrap prices are going down and margin expectations also diminish, a significant number of scrap collectors halt their activities, which leads to reduced scrap availability.

Meimaroglou added that official policies and regulations, especially in some countries, is completely hostile to scrap exports, aiming to limit them as much as possible. Furthermore, financing by banks – due to the general economical situation, but also due to problems which have arisen in recent years in the steel sector – is becoming more and more difficult to obtain and more limited, Mr. Meimaroglu said, adding that the dollar exchange rate is becoming an important factor in cost creation, affecting the market and competition in different areas. In conclusion, Meimaroglu underlined the general view among all participants that scrap suppliers are currently going as low as they can in terms of prices while still managing to provide steel mills with regular supplies of good quality material. “Scrap exists. But we need real workable prices, allowing us to collect and to deliver properly to our clients,” he concluded.

Representing the Traders’ Committee, F.D. Baysal said that the antidumping petition in the US against rebar imports from Mexico and Turkey has become a major concern for traders as they are worried Turkish and Mexican rebar imports to the US might stop while the investigation is being carried out. Turkish participants at the event, including steel producers and steel exporters, all stated that the dumping claim is groundless and that, even if a decision of injury is reached, dumping margins close to zero will be decided. Furthermore, the Turkish participants, including the Turkish Steel Exporters’ Association, categorically denied that any government incentives were being provided for the Turkish steel industry. Some US-based traders speaking at the Traders’ Committee Meeting expressed their concerns regarding the lack of alternative sources of supply besides Turkey, stating they could not name any supplier country other than Turkey which “can supply rebar in any size, in any grade, in any volume and at any time.”

F.D. Baysal said that traders are expecting scrap prices to go down further for a while and then to stabilize, while iron ore prices are expected to decline for longer than scrap prices. Baysal also mentioned the possibility of an antidumping investigation being launched in the US against wire rod imports.

Ugur Dalbeler, Chairman of the Billet Suppliers’ Committee, said that Turkish billet export prices have not been competitive in recent times due to upward pressure coming from scrap prices, leading to a 40 percent year-on-year decrease in Turkey’s steel billet exports so far in the current year. On the other hand, Dalbeler said that steel billet export suppliers from the CIS have more competitive prices and increased sales to Turkey as a result, also given the higher billet prices in Turkey. Dalbeler stated that the situation in the US market is now good, while the euro zone is reviving slowly in terms of steel market activity. “After a difficult year in 2013, we hope to start seeing those old good days by 2015 and 2016,” he concluded.

Kim Marti, Chairman of the Rebar and Wire Rod Suppliers’ and Producers’ Committees, stated that global rebar and wire rod demand is growing, with further growth also expected next year. Commenting that Europe is emerging from its recession and is witnessing a more positive construction outlook, which will drive steel demand higher, Marti added that the economic outlooks for the US, Europe and Japan are positive and, since these three economies account for more than 70 percent of world GDP, the general outlook for the global economy is considered to be positive. He mentioned that the European mills were adjusting their capacity carefully in line with demand, before going on to say that oversupply is still an overwhelming problem in the world steel industry, with some regions where capacities keep on rising, such as in China. Marti also said that steel markets in the Gulf region, the GCC and more particularly in the UAE are performing quite well.

He also indicated a number of challenges which the steel industry is facing, namely, volatility of prices, overcapacity in the industry, credit restrictions and trade barriers, while also stating that the steel trade is becoming more regionalized.