Ioannis Manessis is a principal of Hellenic Halyvourgia S.A., a Greek steel producer established in 1963.

Over the past 25 years, he has held several senior roles within the company, including Export Director, Managing Director, and Vice President of the Board of Directors. Through these positions, he has developed extensive technical and commercial expertise in the long steel products sector.
In addition to his work in the steel industry, Mr. Manessis is actively involved in dry bulk shipping activities.

Mr. Manessis holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from Harvard University (1998)

He succeeds Mr. Murat Cebecioglu.

IREPAS would like to convey its’ appreciation to Mr. Murat Cebecioglu. His leadership, talent and expertise have been a great asset to the Association in his time as Chairman and helped the association expand significantly despite several significant geopolitical and economical issues on top of severe protectionism.

The anti dumping duties are at the following levels:

• Greece       :42.1 percent
• Indonesia : 0-9.3 percent
• Spain         : 6.3 percent
• Taiwan      : 4.4 percent

The products subject to the reviews fall under the HS codes 7213.10.00.42, 7214.20.00.47, 7227.90.10.69, 7227.90.90.01, 7227.90.90.02, 7227.90.90.04, 7227.90.90.42, 7228.30.10.70, 7228.30.90.40 and 7228.60.10.72.

The tariffs are effective with respect to goods entered, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after March 23, 2018. Countries with temporary exclusions to the tariffs include Canada, Mexico, Australia, Argentina, South Korea, Brazil and  member countries of the European Union (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom).

Customs and Border Protection noted that exclusions are based on the country of origin, not the country of export. The merchandise covered by the additional duties may also be subject to pre-existing antidumping and countervailing duties.

The investigation into the alleged dumping of the goods from Greece, Indonesia (by exporters other than PT Ispat Panca Putera and PT Putra Baja Deli), Spain (by Nervacero S.A), Taiwan (by Power Steel Co. Ltd) and Thailand will continue.

Greece

• Uncooperative and all other exporters         : 42.1%

Indonesia

• PT Ispat Panca Putera                                      : -2.2%
• PT Putra Baja Deli                                             : 0.4%
• Uncooperative and all other exporters          : 7.2%

Spain

• Nervacero                                                             : 7.5%

Taiwan

• Power Steel                                                          : 4.4%

Thailand

• Millcon Steel                                                        :   9.6%
• Uncooperative and all other exporters           : 12.2%

The commission stated that it will require and take antidumping duties in respect of the goods exported from Greece, Indonesia (except for the goods exported by PT Ispat Panca Putera and PT Putra Baja Deli), Spain (exported by Nervacero S.A), Taiwan (exported by Power Steel Co. Ltd) and Thailand entered for home consumption on or after November 15. The commission will present its recommendations to the parliamentary secretary on or before December 29.

The products subject to preliminary antidumping duty currently fall under Customs Tariff Statistics Position Number 7213.10.00, 7214.20.00, 7227.90.10, 7227.90.90, 7228.30.10, 7228.30.90 and 7228.60.10.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said he believed the outlook for the next quarter is very good as long as there is no surprise from China, despite the last quarter of the year always being very challenging. Mr. Cebecioglu added that the solid supply-demand balance combined with low inventories have given everyone reason to believe that the strength of price levels will be sustained up to Christmas.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products and steel billets, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers: Solid increase in scrap demand so far in 2017

Jens Björkman, chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, stated that during 2017 global steel production has shown continued strength, resulting in a solid increase in scrap demand. He added that increased Chinese domestic consumption has helped to reduce steel exports coming from China, contributing to a strong global steel market for most of this year.

Mr. Björkman said that one of the major changes in the market is that China which had long been a net scrap importer started to export scrap despite the 40 percent export duty and became a net exporter as induction furnaces halted production as part of structural reforms in China.

The raw materials committee chairman indicated that the current situation seems very encouraging for the rest of the year for the scrap market, considering that Turkey, a major scrap consumer, has increased its steel production to above 3 million metric tons per month lately. He went on to say that, with the reduction of steel exports from China, EU-based producers have been doing well for the past nine months.

Commenting on scrap pricing in the EU, Mr. Björkman said that the recent build up of scrap supply has put pressure on pricing for the short term, while domestic prices of obsolete scrap in the EU, especially in Germany, are at record high levels. He added that the market will likely see high prices for prime scrap.

Regarding the electrode shortage, Björkman stated that, given the induction furnace closures in China, it will be an interesting year to see how this affects the electric arc furnace-based steel markets.

Traders: Section 232 is a major concern

Michael Setterdahl, representing the traders committee, said that the main concern of the traders is the ongoing Section 232 investigation in the US, though adding that US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has recently announced that the results of the investigation have been delayed until after the planned tax reform.

Commenting on the recent antidumping duties on Turkish rebar, Mr. Setterdahl said that most traders believe that nothing can really replace Turkish suppliers, since they are one of only two markets that can ship 50,000 metric tons of rebar within two months, the other being China.

The traders committee chairman stressed that there is a rebar surplus of one million metric tons in the EU market and this is because of reduced rebar imports from Algeria which used to import 2 million mt of rebar per year. Regarding the increased demand in the Chinese domestic market, he said that this gave Turkish suppliers the opportunity to ship to Southeast Asia.

Mr. Setterdahl also pointed out that the market should be vigilant about the absolute numbers regarding the decreases in China’s imports or exports, rather than about the percentages. He also said that traders are also concerned about China reentering the billet market, adding that the question is when China will resume billet exports, not if it will.

Steel Producers: Market is in much better shape thanks to improved demand

Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS and also of the producers committee, said that the global market is in much better shape than in 2016 thanks to improving demand and decreasing pressure from China. He stated that the general sentiment in the market is very positive, with the supply-demand balance helping the steel market to do much better business.

Mr. Cebecioglu pointed out that, amid China’s absence from the export market, Turkish producers were able to ship to the Far East. He also commented on the GCC region, indicating that the export ban in Saudi Arabia has been lifted and so there is a new player in the market.

The committee chairman said that producers do not expect steel prices to go down further; they may soften a little but they are unlikely to decrease much. Although scrap prices are down, he said that this will be offset by the increased cost of electrodes, and so there will be no change in producers’ cost structure. Mr. Cebecioglu said he believes that the electrode shortage is not a short-term problem. He expects it to continue into the first half of 2019. He also warned that if it continues into 2019 it may affect steel production as well.

Commenting on the Section 232 investigation, Cebecioglu said that, even though the results have been delayed until after the planned tax reform, there is still a deadline – the report has to be presented to President Trump and then he will have to approve it within 90 days.

The application lodged by Australian steelmaker OneSteel Manufacturing Pty Ltd claims that the goods have been exported to Australia at prices less than their normal value and that the dumping has caused material injury to the Australian industry through price depression, loss of sale volumes and market share, reduced revenue, loss of profit and reduced profitability.

The investigation will cover the period between April 1, 2016 and March 31, 2017, and the goods in question currently fall under Customs Tariff Statistics Position Number 7213.10.00, 7214.20.00, 7227.90.10, 7227.90.90, 7227.90.90, 7228.30.10, 7228.30.90 and 7228.60.10.

Oversupply has been evident in the global long steel market from September up to the end of November, slowing down demand, putting pressure on the market and pushing prices downwards. However, outputs are being reduced in certain areas and demand in the global long steel products market is now at reasonable levels although purchasing processes in general have been delayed or even fragmented due to the general price downtrend. Buyers are keeping a very close eye on price changes in the market and try to book at the most favourable levels they can, but buying activity is consistent.

Bright spots for demand

Demand for long steel products in central and northern Europe can be described as reasonably healthy. Demand in south western European markets, including Greece, is improving though still at very low levels. The same can be said for eastern Europe too, except for Ukraine.

Demand in the North American long steel products market is showing strength. The US domestic market has been stable throughout the fall and remains in good shape, but there is also serious pressure on prices to decrease soon. In other areas, some countries dependent on income from raw materials and commodities, like Brazil, Chile and Algeria, among others, are seeing a slowdown in activity which affects demand for steel products negatively. Other markets like the GCC countries seem to be holding up well.

Prospects remain on bearish side for scrap

After 13 weeks of negative price development, the scrap market in Turkey has levelled off at least for the time being due to tightness in the supply chain. US and European demand has been fairly steady and so availability of seaborne scrap has diminished. Lead times are short, implying that, when sentiment shifts direction, corrections and rebounds can be quick. The overall outlook for scrap remains fairly bearish as prices for the alternative to scrap, i.e., iron ore, remain weak, and Chinese domestic demand for steel is not sufficient to absorb ore production.

The prolonged period of sliding prices has meant that many in the scrap community have taken a step back so as to not get damaged in the rout. This has been especially noticeable on the industrial level where competition is most fierce. No supplier wants to be sitting with expensive material in a falling market.

Competition still extremely strong  

Competition in the global long steel market is still extremely strong. New adjusted values in currencies and prices of scrap and iron ore continuously change the competitiveness of different players, in different products and markets. CIS, Turkish and Chinese suppliers have been involved in intense competition to attract the orders in the market. Turkish suppliers are now withdrawing from this club.

The dip in the oil price has contributed to the collapse of the Russian rouble, which likely will make Russian exporters competitive on scrap and billets. As prices fell in the steel market, business activity continued at lower levels. Lower oil prices also keep bunker prices low and logistics workable, enabling more business to be concluded.

A new era dominated by China?

A new era in which China will be a major supplier has started already. In this era, two different groups of markets are expected to be seen. The first of these will be the China-dominated markets and the other will be the protected markets.

General rebalancing of commodity prices

Multiple commodities are currently being rebalanced at new price levels. Iron ore, copper, oil, ferrous scrap as well as products derived thereof including but not limited to basic pig iron, billet, slab, long steel products and flat rolled steel products. Currency trade wars seem to be commencing and commodities are taking a beating as a result. The slower pace of China’s growth is sinking in and governments and central banks are trying to balance this with weaker currencies. Under such circumstances, steel producers are now focusing on their purchasing costs rather than on production costs.

Approaching holiday period may offer some respite from turbulence

The global long steel market has been very turbulent. It seems as if the price downtrend has stopped in the last few days and, as a result, buying decisions may be moved forward. However, a holiday lull for Christmas and the New Year appears to be in the offing. We may obtain a pause and gain some stability for a few weeks.

Healthy outlook for coming quarter despite rebalancings

The rebalancing in the market has been necessary and will likely have some echoes but in general the market for the coming quarter will be healthy.

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Raw material suppliers: Increasing Chinese exports will alter market balances

Ioannis Meimaroglou, chairman of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee, stated that the increasing volume of exports from China due to the slowdown of Chinese domestic consumption is influencing the world market and will certainly change the existing steel trade balances. Mr. Meimaroglou said that the some members of the raw materials committee expressed the view that the threat of cheap Chinese steel exports is being used more as a pretext to exert downward pressure on raw material prices, while others stated that, if Chinese exports reach 100-120 million tons annually, the consequences will be serious, independently of whether these exports are directed to Turkey or to other countries.

Meimaroglou added that the increasing raw material demand in the market and particularly in the Arabian peninsula is creating a new situation in the region and can change the correlations on a more permanent and long-term basis. He went on to say that the considerable fall in iron ore prices has been increasing the pressure on scrap prices, adding that the strengthening of the US dollar is helping raw material suppliers for the time being, covering a part of the price fall.

Regarding scrap collection, Meimaroglu stated that the domestic markets in the US, Europe and Russia are very strong and healthy and so it is difficult to compete with them in order to collect material for export, leaving most scrap yards almost empty. He concluded by saying that the raw material market is likely to see further pressure on prices, drastically affecting suppliers’ quantities, while also adding that the direction of scrap flow may change in the future.

Traders see new possibilities for business with Iran, upbeat on Iraq and Ukraine

The traders committee chairman F.D. Baysal said that, despite the political instability in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq and Syria, shipments to Iraq are still continuing, though with some interruptions. He underlined that there are new possibilities for buying from and selling to Iran which is a new market to look forward to.

Regarding the tensions between Ukraine and Russia, Mr. Baysal stated that business is being carried on as usual, with minor interruptions which do not pose any major problems for traders. The trade flow in the region is observed to be continuing as before.

Commenting on different antidumping cases, Mr. Baysal remarked that, since Turkey is exempt from US rebar antidumping duties, rebar exports from Turkey to the US will continue, adding that the pricing may not change. He pointed out that, with China exiting the US market as a result of the wire rod antidumping duty investigation, there will be new countries entering the US market.

With regard to the increasing volumes of Chinese exports flooding the market, Baysal said that he has been always a supporter of free trade as long as it is also fair trade – speaking in response to market information that China is exporting to North Africa with 180-day credit terms, with insurance provided by a state-owned company.

Finally, commenting on raw material prices, the traders committee chairman said that iron ore prices have been declining and probably will decline further, forcing scrap prices to decline as well. Traders are looking forward to seeing lower prices, he affirmed.

Steel producers: Changing billet prices will lead to new market realities

The chairman of the steel producers committee, Kim Marti, who is also chairman of IREPAS, stated that Turkey is out of the billet market in addition to the interruptions to the business in Ukraine and that the market has been left to the Chinese mills. Mr. Marti added that the Chinese billet suppliers gaining ground in the region will put pressure on billet prices in the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions and also on scrap prices, since billets are used as a substitute for scrap. Mr. Marti, along with the other committee chairmen, agreed that certain measures should be imposed against Chinese exports.

Mr. Marti pointed out that the changing billet prices will take the industry to a new setup in the coming months, though also saying that the market adjusts quickly to new realities. Rebar demand will see a slight increase compared to 2013, Mr. Marti said, adding that the Turkish mills are happy with their domestic market and are looking forward to new trade routes opening up again to Iraq.

The producers committee chairman also said that, while the northern EU countries are performing well, the situation is less bright for southern EU countries. Italian, Spanish and Greek mills are still facing significant overcapacity under very slow market circumstances, finding the balance with exports to North Africa and production cuts. Mr.Marti added that they are starting to see signs of revival in consumption in Greece and Spain.

Commenting on the EU mills’ investments in environmental protection, Mr. Marti said that it is not something that the mills should abandon, while other committee chairmen agreed that environmental protection constitutes a social responsibility aspect of businesses and should be continued.