The regulation sets the total annual tariff-rate quota at 18,345,922 mt, while imports within the quota will remain duty-free, while volumes exceeding the quota will be subject to a 50 percent tariff, a sharp increase compared to the previous 25 percent safeguard duty.

This measure applies broadly to all third countries, including those with free trade agreements or preferential access, reinforcing the EU’s efforts to prevent trade diversion and protect domestic producers. However, imports originating from Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are excluded from the scope of the measure. The European Commission also retains the authority to expand the scope to include downstream steel products in future reviews.

The tariff-rate quotas will be administered on a quarterly basis, aiming to prevent import surges within short periods. During the first year of implementation, unused quotas will be carried over to subsequent quarters. However, the commission may later adjust this rule depending on market conditions, including import pressure and supply shortages.

The European Commission will:

• review the product scope regularly,
• assess the effectiveness of the measure every three years,
• potentially adjust quota volumes within a range of 14.4-22.2 million mt depending on market developments.

Annual volumes of tariff rate quotas for some steel products are listed below.

• Merchant Bars and Light Sections  :  881,735 mtons
• Rebars    : 844,526 mtons
• Wire Rods   : 1,569,532 mtons

In a joint statement, the European Parliament, the Council and the European Commission underlined that the EU has taken unprecedented steps since the start of the war to reduce its economic dependence on Russia and prevent its economic activity from supporting Russia’s war efforts.

However, the institutions acknowledged that some dependencies still remain, particularly for certain steel products that are not yet fully restricted. Limited volumes of Russian steel imports are therefore still permitted under transitional arrangements until September 30, 2028, with quotas that decrease annually. The EU confirmed that these measures are designed to ensure a complete phase-out of remaining Russian steel imports by the 2028 deadline.

There were 99 representatives from 41 different producers among the 386 registered delegates from a total of 49 different countries. There were also 86 registrations representing 41 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Ioannis Manessis, chairman of IREPAS, said that two major conflicts – one in Ukraine and the other in Iran — have consequences for global trade in general and serious repercussions for the industry in particular. He said steel trade has been affected by both demand destruction and supply disruptions, as well as by elevated energy costs, higher freight rates and the practical difficulty of securing vessels on time to transport materials.

Mr Manessis added that protectionism continues to intensify at the same time. IREPAS chairman also said that real demand in the global long products sector remains subdued while geopolitical tensions have driven up freight, energy, and raw material costs. Combined with some degree of inventory replenishment, this has supported higher prices he concluded.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Tighter supply, geopolitics reshape global scrap market

Speaking at the panel session, Jens Björkman from Stena Metal International and also chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, shared the committee’s assessments of the current dynamics and difficulties in the global raw material markets. Mr. Björkman highlighted significant shifts in global market dynamics over the past year, pointing to tighter supply conditions, changing trade flows and increasing geopolitical influence on pricing and demand. One of the key developments has been the slowdown in Chinese steel output, with March production falling to the lowest monthly level in six years. This decline, linked to weaker margins and stricter controls, has supported sentiment in other regions, while iron ore prices have remained relatively firm at $105-110/mt due to supply-side constraints. India continues to stand out as a major growth market, supported by strong domestic sponge iron production. This has reduced its reliance on scrap imports, although the country could be an attractive destination, based on freight costs and pricing conditions.

The chairman of the raw material suppliers committee stated that, in Europe, safeguard measures and regulatory frameworks have reinforced protectionist dynamics, supporting intra-regional scrap demand. However, concerns persist over high energy costs and the risk of stagflation, which could weigh on longer-term demand. In the United States, stronger domestic steel production has boosted internal demand for raw materials. At the same time, the attractiveness of scrap exports has declined, particularly for high-quality grades, as supply increasingly shifts toward domestic consumption.

Mr. Björkman pointed out that Turkey has seen improved sentiment, supported by stronger steel production and demand. Reduced semis supply from Iran has increased reliance on scrap imports, pushing prices to around $410/mt, an annual high. Rising freight costs, driven by higher bunker fuel prices and disruptions of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, have further supported pricing.

Mr. Björkman emphasized that there is no global surplus of scrap supply, as scrap continues to be steadily consumed. Europe exports around 19-20 million mt annually, reflecting limited domestic demand growth, but future availability may tighten due to increasing EAF adoption and regulatory constraints. Traditional importers in the Middle East may face challenges as scrap availability tightens in Europe and the US. Meanwhile, he noted, growing scrap generation and processing capacity in Asia, particularly in China and India, could gradually reshape global trade flows.

Mr. Björkman said that increasing regulatory requirements, particularly EU waste shipment rules, are expected to drive investment in sorting and processing. At the same time, tighter credit conditions and reduced availability of trade finance are adding complexity to global scrap trade. He went on to say that, despite strong pricing and demand conditions, the market outlook remains uncertain. Energy prices, economic growth and geopolitical developments continue to pose risks, while elevated oil prices at around $110 per barrel are still considered manageable for now. However, in conclusion, he commented that any deterioration in demand or purchasing power could quickly shift the market into a more challenging phase.

Traders at IREPAS: Geopolitical tensions and higher costs disrupt steel trade flows

Speaking during the panel session, Wilhelm Alff, director at Duferco and chairman of the traders committee, shared the committee’s assessment of current market conditions, highlighting weakening demand, regulatory pressures and rising geopolitical risks. Mr. Alff reminded that crude steel production in China reached around 960 million mt in 2025, while data from the first quarter of 2026 indicate that output may decline further or at best remain stable, with no clear signs of growth. In China, the sharpest drop was observed in the rebar segment, in which production fell by 12 percent, reflecting the ongoing downturn in the construction sector. The only improvement in China was the growth of more than 10 percent in iron ore inventories, mainly due to strategic stock building, highlighting the disconnect between raw material positioning and weak end-user demand.

This weakness in demand is particularly evident in Europe, where the overall economic outlook remains poor. Public spending is increasingly being redirected toward defense and social support rather than infrastructure, especially in Germany, limiting the recovery potential for steel consumption. The committee also pointed out that existing production capacity in the EU continues to exceed demand, noting that even prolonged production stoppages by major producers have had little visible impact on the market. A key concern for traders remains the implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The committee chairman emphasized that, in the current environment, traders are advised to use default emission values when calculating CBAM costs in order to avoid risks, although this approach increases cost exposure. Uncertainty surrounding calculation methods and verification procedures continues to complicate transactions, making it essential to involve producers and clearly define contract terms.

In addition, recent changes to the EU safeguard system have added further pressure. Quotas have been reduced by nearly 50 percent, while out-of-quota duties may rise to as high as 50 percent. Market participants criticized the lack of adjustment in country-specific quotas, even where suppliers have not delivered material for extended periods. As a result, portions of the quota system remain effectively unusable, further tightening supply and negatively affecting buyers and end-users in the region. Against this backdrop, traders also highlighted the growing impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. According to Mr. Alff, escalating tensions have tightened raw material supply chains and pushed costs higher, significantly slowing trading activity. Mills are increasingly relying on short-term sourcing strategies and opportunistic cargoes, while additional costs for transporting billets overland from Omani ports are estimated at around $40/mt. Severe port congestion is further complicating trade flows, making execution increasingly difficult. Despite these disruptions, the committee believes that the current situation is still being treated as temporary rather than structural. However, logistical constraints, especially in key maritime routes, continue to limit cargo movements and add uncertainty to global trade.

Commenting on global trade flows, Mr. Alff noted that exporters are likely to face growing challenges in accessing traditional markets. Tightening EU quotas and rising protectionism are forcing suppliers to seek alternative destinations, though options are becoming increasingly limited as more countries introduce similar trade barriers. Africa is expected to remain a key growth market in the medium term, supported by rising imports from Asia, particularly China, although the expansion of local production capacity and potential protectionist measures could gradually slow this trend.

Regarding China, the committee expects semi-finished steel exports to remain at elevated levels but under tighter control, as the Chinese authorities are likely to manage trade flows more actively to avoid another sharp surge. While the ongoing crisis in the Gulf region could support demand for Chinese material, its impact will largely depend on logistical conditions and the ability to move cargoes efficiently.

Looking at other regions, market conditions in the US and Latin America were described as relatively stable, with the US benefiting from solid demand driven by public infrastructure projects.

Overall, the traders committee underlined that the global steel market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty, shaped by weak demand in key regions, regulatory changes and geopolitical risks. In such an environment, Alff concluded that it is extremely difficult to predict price trends, emphasizing that market participants will need to continuously monitor developments and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Producers at IREPAS: Global steel sector under pressure from costs and weak growth

Alex Gordienko, export director of Spain’s CELSA Group and chairman of the producers committee, stated, in sharing the producers committee’s findings, that the global steel industry is facing increasing pressure from rising costs, weak economic growth and regulatory complexity. He noted that uncertainty remains high, particularly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Mr. Gordienko indicated that raw material prices have risen significantly, while the ability to pass these costs on to customers remains limited. As a result, margins across the industry are under sustained pressure, with finished steel prices failing to fully reflect higher input costs.

Mr. Gordienko noted that economic growth remains subdued across many regions, limiting the potential for a meaningful recovery in steel demand. He warned that current conditions reflect a fragile balance, with demand holding but lacking strong momentum. He described energy markets as highly volatile, largely due to tensions in the Middle East, adding that there is no clear timeline for a resolution and that a prolonged conflict could significantly worsen market conditions.

The producers committee chairman went on to state that trade policy remains a key theme, with the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at the center of discussions.

CBAM is seen as a mechanism that will gradually level carbon costs globally, encouraging countries such as Turkey, China and India to develop their own carbon pricing systems.

He said that, while CBAM is not expected to trigger immediate price changes, producers anticipate a medium-term disruption. By 2027, mills with verified emissions data are expected to gain a competitive advantage, as buyers increasingly prioritize suppliers able to provide reliable carbon data. Currently, only a limited number of suppliers, particularly in Japan and South Korea, are fully prepared for these requirements.

Meanwhile, the other restrictive factor, he pointed out, is that a new quota system stricter than the EU’s framework is expected to be introduced in the UK.

Mr. Gordienko commented that logistical challenges are adding further pressure, particularly in the Middle East, where port congestion is disrupting cargo flows. Limited truck availability and rising freight costs, driven by higher bunker fuel prices and fuel shortages, are increasing delivery costs for producers. He also stated that production disruptions in Iran have significantly affected global semis supply. Publicly available information indicates that facilities representing around 10 million mt of capacity have been heavily damaged, with recovery timelines ranging from six to 12 months. Iran exported approximately 3 million mt of semis in 2025, with around 75 percent directed to Asia. The disruption has contributed to increased Chinese semi-finished exports, particularly in March, as China moved to fill the supply gap. In the meantime, diesel shortages in Europe and transportation constraints are further amplifying cost pressures, with freight rates rising faster than oil prices.

On the raw materials side, Gordienko stated that availability remains a structural constraint. European producers, heavily reliant on scrap for electric arc furnace-based production, face limited flexibility in switching to alternative inputs such as HBI due to high energy requirements. This suggests limited short-term changes in production routes.

Lastly, he shared his prediction regarding the market outlook. Despite relatively stable demand and pricing conditions, the overall outlook remains uncertain. In conclusion, he said that energy prices, geopolitical developments and cost pressures continue to pose significant risks, leaving the global steel industry in a fragile and unpredictable environment.

There have been no signs of improvement in the global long steel products market. On the contrary, the current business environment has, unfortunately, deteriorated rather than improved in terms of the supply and demand balance. The wars, particularly in Iran and Ukraine, have significantly exacerbated existing disruptions across global supply chains. What we have seen looks more like a supply-side shock than a demand recovery: higher energy, electricity and freight costs have pushed prices upward, and these increases have so far been widely accepted by customers as inevitable.

Many economies would enter recessionary territory if ceasefire in Iran war fails to hold

So much will depend on whether the ceasefire just announced in the Iran war will hold. If it does not hold and should energy prices remain elevated, there would a substantial risk that many economies will enter recessionary territory, with wide-ranging and potentially severe consequences. Transportation costs have already risen considerably, while uncertainty surrounding future demand has increased across all major markets. At the same time, there is a noticeable shift toward greater protectionism, further complicating international trade dynamics.

US scrap export volumes decline, UK shifts to containerized scrap exports to Turkey

US ferrous scrap export volumes are in decline due to more domestic consumption and difficult prices in Asian markets, while the UK is shifting to containerized exports to Turkey.

On the bright side, increased pre-ordering and restocking activity observed

Despite the prevailing challenges, there are some positive aspects in the global market. Heightened uncertainty is prompting contractors involved in confirmed construction projects to secure supply in advance, leading to increased pre-ordering in order to mitigate the risk of further cost escalations. Additionally, in an inflationary environment, apparent demand often exceeds actual demand, as businesses tend to build up inventories as a precautionary measure. This dynamic is likely to result in a degree of restocking activity, providing short-term support to market demand.

Three distinct regional dynamics seen in competition in global market

Three distinct regional market dynamics can be identified in terms of the level of competition in the global market, which remains high, though it varies across regions. Broadly speaking, in the United States, competition is largely domestic, with local producers competing primarily within the internal market. In the European Union, the landscape is more mixed, characterized by intense domestic competition alongside a limited presence of imports from third countries. In contrast, in the rest of the world, competition is significantly more intense, with global players actively competing across multiple markets.

Rising costs of energy exerting pressure across the industry

At the same time, rising energy costs – particularly impacting steel producers – along with increasing scrap prices driven by higher oil and transportation costs, have exerted additional pressure across the industry. These factors are contributing to heightened competition globally, as producers strive to maintain margins and market share in an increasingly challenging cost environment. The market has accepted cost-driven price increases up to a certain degree. The uncertainty is in the second-order consequences. As with any supply-side shock, the market may have to rebuild around new supply routes, new energy costs and changing raw material availability, and it is still too early to judge how the wider economy will react. It will be necessary to wait and see what impact the ceasefire in the Iran war – provided it holds – will have on easing the surges in costs and if it will bring about a badly-needed return to something approaching normality for business and trade.

Current market environment very unstable, dependent on US war-related policy decisions

The current market environment can be best described as highly unstable and deeply influenced by geopolitical developments. In particular, the global economy has been increasingly dependent on policy decisions made by the United States administration in relation to the war against Iran, though some hope is now offered by the implementation of the ceasefire. Recent developments have intensified market volatility, with rising energy prices, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures creating a highly uncertain outlook.  In this context, market conditions remain fragile and unpredictable, with future stability largely contingent on geopolitical outcomes and policy direction in the coming months.

Outlook for next quarter remains uncertain

The outlook for the next quarter remains uncertain, primarily due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market direction will largely depend on how the situation evolves in the near term.

If the ceasefire holds…

Should the ceasefire hold, an improvement in demand can be expected, leading to a more positive outlook and gradual market stabilization. However, were the ceasefire to break down and war to be renewed, the risk of a significant economic slowdown will increase. In such a scenario, many economies could enter recessionary conditions, with potential project delays or cancellations and an overall challenging business environment. Other than the military-industrial complex, all other industrial sectors would be negatively affected.

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Due the war in the Middle East, levels of uncertainty have surged in the global long steel products market. Energy prices are flying high, supply chains have been disrupted, bunker oil and freight rates are up and stocks are down. It is too early to predict the overall impact of the war. While concerns regarding deliveries of cargoes originating from regions in the East have helped push prices up in the Western markets, demand is not improving, which comes as no surprise especially when we have no clue about how long this war will continue or to what extent it might spread. Another major question is what will happen to scrap prices.

Investments to be put on hold, no panic purchases despite EU mills’ price hikes

Investments will be put on hold given the high levels of uncertainty all around. EU mills have reacted with price increases but, as the market is still waking up after the winter season, this has not resulted in panic purchases.

Imports into EU risky amid lack of regulatory clarity

Brussels’ incompetence or unwillingness to announce final CBAM regulations and how safeguard measures will be continued after June 2026 makes imports into the EU extremely risky.

Turkish mills face slow local and export demand, adjust capacity usage accordingly

In Turkey, construction activity is slow and exports are down by 20 percent compared to the same period last year. Mills are adjusting their production based on the demand they receive.

US Supreme Court gives some breathing space to importers, but new tariffs likely

The Supreme Court decision in the US against Trump’s tariffs gives a partial breather to importers. However, it will probably not be long before new tariffs will be implemented under different names.

Current market status unstable, outlook unpredictable

It is very difficult to talk about competition under the current levels of protectionism, geopolitical issues and uncertainty in the market. Under the current overall market circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable with an unpredictable and unstable outlook.

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Demand remains weak in the global long steel products market, both structurally and seasonally. Buyers are cautious, operating on a hand-to-mouth basis and are still delaying medium- or long-term commitments. At the same time, supply pressure remains high. China has finally shown a significant production decline (with 2025 output down to 960 million mt, below one billion mt for the first time since 2019), but its exports surged to a record 119 million mt.

Geopolitics pull FX and commodity markets in different directions, causing uncertainty

Geopolitical tensions are clearly growing and are tearing the foreign exchange (FX) and commodity markets in different directions, increasing uncertainty for both mills and traders. This is feeding buyers’ wait-and-see stance on the demand side, while keeping input costs – especially scrap – more supported than finished steel products.

Demand still weak in EU, imports slowed down a lot by CBAM uncertainties

Demand in the EU market is still weak. Not only seasonal conditions but also uncertainties regarding political decisions are holding buyers back from making bigger commitments. Despite solid order books, construction companies are not flooding the market to avoid increases. The absolute uncertainty about quotas, CBAM, etc., has slowed down import volumes a lot. Only a few quotas were used up completely on January 1, which is proof of the fears of importers and traders.

US commercial construction expectations weaken for 2026

In the US, commercial construction expectations are down this year, with five of 17 market segments showing negative outlooks. Data centers (57 percent net positive) and power projects (34 percent net positive) remain strong. Although 63 percent of firms are planning new hires in 2026, over 80 percent are struggling to find qualified workers. Tariffs have affected 70 percent of contractors, and 63 percent report project delays or cancellations due to funding issues and rising costs. Top concerns for 2026 include the economic slowdown, workforce shortages, rising labor costs and material price volatility due to imports.

US residential construction segment also shows weakening, US mills in strong position

Residential construction in the US is not any better. Multi-family housing starts dropped 25.9 percent in October last year compared to September and were down 10.8 percent year on year, falling to their lowest level since 2020, according to the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Overall, housing starts in the US in October fell 4.6 percent from September and 7.8 percent from October 2024. Developers face challenges ranging from high inventory to high interest rates. Imports face tough competition with domestic products having a 50 percent duty advantage and with antidumping and countervailing duties on most commodities. Domestic mills are in the best position with high prices and practically no competition.

Seasonal supply tightness boosts scrap market, thereby providing support for longs market

The ferrous scrap market is strong mainly due to the seasonal supply tightness and provides some support for the long steel products market.

Competition at high levels but is not on a level playing field due to trade protectionism

There is high competition in the market. That said, with all the trade measures and tariffs, there is no fair competition anymore. It is just about searching for opportunities.

Market outlook slightly better but remains tough, some cautious optimism for 2026

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable. The outlook is slightly better due to seasonal reasons but remains tough. Despite all this and everchanging trade restrictions, we are still cautiously optimistic for 2026.

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As we approach the holiday season, the general atmosphere in the global long steel products market is still cloudy. To sum up the market situation, demand is weak everywhere, with the approach of the holiday season exacerbating this situation, while costs are rising, China is producing a little less but is still exporting. The net effect is that the supply-demand balance has not improved, it has just shifted for different reasons. Decreases in consumption globally have put demand in a weak situation, with customers not yet observing any rises in consumption on the horizon which would give them hope for brighter market prospects.

EU market more cost-driven than before, scrap supply tighter

What has changed in the market is the cost structure. Scrap supply in Europe is tighter than usual, possibly in expectation of CBAM in 2026. Combined with higher electricity prices, this has pushed prices higher even though finished steel demand has not changed. So, the market is now even more cost-driven than last month.

New EU safeguard measures give brief boost, but demand shrinking in general

We have seen some price increases and a relative rise in demand in the EU due to the announcement of new safeguard measures. However, this improvement is temporary. Demand in the EU is shrinking in general despite promised infrastructure projects and a lack of apartments. The capacities of EU producers have increased over the past 12 months again, which increases the imbalance in the market. Despite the upcoming CBAM and tougher safeguard rulings, prices in the EU have been increasing only by very small margins due to low demand. No change is in sight.

China still exports at full speed, production cuts make little difference

On the supply side, China is finally showing real production cuts. In the first 10 months of the year, China’s crude steel output amounted to 817.87 million metric tons, down 3.9 percent year on year. This is the first meaningful drop in a while and should, in theory, take some pressure off the global balance. But as long as the tonnages they actually produce continue to flow abroad, the practical impact of the reduction in output is limited. In reality, China is still exporting at full speed because their domestic consumption is dropping even further. On the other hand, the export market is more attractive for the Chinese. Any changes in the rest of the world will have little impact on Chinese exports, as hopes fade of a stimulus by Beijing to boost domestic steel consumption.

Projects put on hold in US due to high interest rates

In the US, demand is still flat. Due to year-end taxes, most stockists are trying to reduce their inventories. Buying decisions are being pushed to 2026. Infrastructure investments are slow and due to high interest rates residential and commercial construction projects are put on hold, waiting for further interest rate cuts. Imports are reduced due to high duty and competition from domestic production.

Many countries still hoping to negotiate tariff exemptions with US

Many countries are trying to find a way to negotiate with the US to gain exemptions from tariffs, especially Mexico. The EU will probably also offer a new deal to the US once its new safeguard is in place. Any exemption will of course change the dynamics of the market.

Turkey’s scrap imports decline, sensitive to increases in scrap costs

Sudden increases in scrap prices will also cause production cuts in Turkey. Turkey’s scrap imports declined by 7.3 percent to 15.23 million mt in the first 10 months of 2025. The import volumes in the corresponding periods since 2020 varied in the range of 18-20 million mt.

Great uncertainty predominates in very unstable market situation

There are factors creating tremendous uncertainty in the global longs market, such as CBAM and the awaited ruling of the US Supreme Court on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, which make future planning extremely difficult. Meanwhile, competition in the market is intense but for low volumes. Under these circumstances, the current situation in the market can be described as very unstable.

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The same pattern continues to prevail in the global long steel products market – weak demand, new capacities and mills running below where they should be. The global picture has narrowed: demand is flat and partly seasonal, supply keeps increasing and the supply-demand balance looks worse every week. The main issue is not really demand or supply, it is about who can still move material. The tonnages are there but trading opportunities have shrunk and competition is relentless. China keeps exporting because it must and, with most traditional markets closing behind protective barriers, exporters are fighting over the same limited opportunities for open trade.

Mills lack profitability, buyers lack interest, system lacks oxygen

Prices appear stable, but confidence seems to be absent. Mills remain busy, but lack profitability, while buyers hold stocks, but have no appetite to buy more. The system still functions, but with less and less oxygen.

Uncertainty still predominates, 2026 foreseen to be difficult for exporters

Uncertainty is still the prevailing tone in the market. The recent China-US talks were not as positive as the leaders described, similar to the situation regarding China’s five-year plan. It seems that China will continue to flood the market with 10 million tonnes every month. On the other hand, due to the 50 percent Section 232 tariffs, US imports will be reduced by 10 million tonnes annually and the new safeguard system in the EU will take approximately another 20 million tonnes of demand from the import market. This means import demand will be down approximately 30 million tonnes annually. With total Chinese exports increasing by around 60 million tonnes, next year will be very difficult for exporting countries.

Longs imports into EU almost at standstill, regional prices foreseen to increase by Q1

In the EU, the uncertainties about CBAM, reduced quotas and higher duties have led to an almost 100 percent standstill in imports of long steel products into the EU market.  As the shipments ordered a month ago are now entering the market, the impact on domestic mills’ price increases is still not visible. The seasonal demand trend will not provide any help either to bring prices up. However, it is expected that the prices of EU domestic producers will increase significantly in the first quarter of 2026 at the latest due to the absence of import alternatives.

New capacities in US increase pressure on prices

US long product demand remains flat and below 2024 levels, while domestic supply has expanded with new mill capacities, adding pressure on prices. Imports are minimal due to the 50 percent Section 232 duty, compounded by the AD/CVD tariffs on traditional suppliers.

Extended US government shutdown hits confidence levels in domestic market

The 0.25 percent interest rate cut in the US has done little to revive construction activity, and even a further reduction of a similar scale expected in December would not significantly shift market sentiment. The ongoing US government shutdown – now exceeding 30 days – has further weakened confidence, delaying infrastructure spending and procurement. Overall, the US market remains oversupplied and cautious, with limited visibility for an improvement into early 2026.

Few positives entering the holiday season, protectionism here to stay for now

We are entering the holiday season up to mid-February and so market activity will be slower than usual in the northern hemisphere. It is very tough to point to real positives in the market, but at least we know where we stand now. Protectionism is not just a temporary phase, it is the current framework market players have to operate in. This at least brings a certain level of stability: there are fewer unexpected twists and there is somewhat greater predictability in the market.

At least no escalation in US-China trade tensions, future interest rate cuts may help

Another positive development is that the trade war between the US and China has not escalated. Further interest cuts in 2026 will certainly help, if they happen.

Current market status unstable, with unsatisfactory outlook

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable with a tough, slow and unsatisfactory outlook.

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Accordingly, the new system maintains the principle of open trade and strengthens engagement with global partners to tackle overcapacity, by

1. limiting tariff-free import volumes to 18.3 million mt a year (a reduction of 47 percent compared to the 2024 steel quotas),
2. doubling the level of out-of-quota duty to 50 percent, compared to the 25 percent under the safeguard, and
3. strengthening the traceability of steel markets by introducing a “Melt and Pour” requirement to prevent circumvention.

The quota volumes of various long steel products can be seen in the table below.

• Merchant Bars and Light Sections    881,735 metric tons
• Reinforcing bars    844,526 metric tons
• Wire Rods    1,569,532 metric tons

Under the new regulation, the EU will maintain free-of-duty tariff quotas equivalent to pre-overcapacity market conditions – calculated based on the 2013 import share of around 13 percent of EU consumption, resulting in an annual total quota volume of 18.3 million mt. The EU’s import volume will decrease as a result of the decline in the quota volume. The quotas will be administered on a quarterly basis, without carry-over between quarters, to avoid market flooding. The quotas will also be allocated per product category based on the share of imports that each product category held over the 2022-24 period. If deemed necessary, the European Commission may implement country-specific quotas or restrictions. Once these quotas are exhausted, a 50 percent tariff will apply, up from the current 25 percent, in line with global tariff levels with an aim to minimize the risk of trade diversion.

The measures will require importers to declare the country of “melt and pour” origin, verifying where the steel was originally produced in liquid form to prevent circumvention.

The Commission will make an assessment at the latest within two years following the adoption of this regulation to evaluate the necessity to adjust the scope of products and, if deemed necessary, it will consider making a legislative proposal to add additional steel products, including products that are made of or contain a significant amount of steel. In addition, the Commission shall evaluate the effectiveness of this regulation before July 1, 2031, and every five years thereafter.

There were 123 representatives from 49 different producers among the 406 registered delegates from a total of 56 different countries. There were also 79 registrations representing 41 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that demand is still very weak in the global longs market and the situation remains difficult as mills are cutting back on production and protectionist measures are continuing full speed ahead, while China and other countries in Asia are exporting a lot, putting pressure on prices.

The IREPAS chairman added that there is very severe competition in the market, and every producer is fighting with its last penny in order to keep operating.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Global trade conditions are “devastating” due to uncertainty

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, said that, in the recent period, global trade conditions have been extremely difficult, describing the situation as “devastating” amid the current uncertainty. Pointing out that trade barriers and uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on the market, particularly with the US tariffs forcing some countries to find alternative destinations, he added that this shift has created pressure on other markets, including Turkey. Regarding the protectionism in the market, he stated that there are rumors that the EU will impose some duties on Asian materials due to the huge inflows of cheaper steel from the region. Meanwhile, noting that China, which is the main exporter of cheap steel, has signaled plans to reduce steel production and exports in 2025 and 2026, albeit the actual outcome remains uncertain, he said that, in the longer term, larger investments in EAF-based production are expected, supported by stable electricity supply and growing domestic scrap availability. China has also announced a cut of about 90 million metric tons in its steel production in 2025.

Highlighting that the planned green transition in the steel industry is increasingly being questioned, with many investments being cancelled and projects being delayed, Mr. Björkman stated that the EU’s move toward electric furnace-based production has now been postponed by at least three to four years. He underlined that, if carbon emission trading in Europe and the related pricing system are fully implemented, emission reduction technologies will need to be installed more widely. However, he said that, instead of hydrogen-based DRI, natural gas could be used in the short term. In addition, the raw materials committee chairman said EU waste shipment regulations treating scrap as waste will create more bureaucracy, especially for non-OECD countries needing formal approvals to buy European scrap, while OECD trade remains unaffected. Regarding the concerns over domestic scrap oversupply, he stated that Europe already faces excess supply overall, but certain grades like clean automotive scrap could face shortages. This imbalance, he explained, is why EU steel producers push to keep scrap within Europe.

Looking at Turkey, Björkman noted that the recent increase in freight costs has become a burden for suppliers, leading prices to increase slightly in Turkey, though how long this situation will last remains difficult to predict. Regarding the changes in Turkey’s inward processing regime, the committee chairman stated that Turkish mills, who are already struggling amid high costs, may become less competitive in the short term as scrap prices may increase slightly, leading the mills to reduce production.

Meanwhile, stating that raw material demand in the GCC market is expected to focus more on DRI/HBI, which remains limited in supply, he emphasized that larger volumes will be needed in Europe to support flat steel production and the green transition, though a mix of DRI/HBI and scrap is likely to be used.

Traders at IREPAS: Protectionist measures will continue for foreseeable future

F.D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, said that China’s exports have increased at a much higher pace than its production. He stated that there are no expectations for production cuts in China and that its domestic stock levels remain at normal levels. In response to questions on how China is reacting to trade barriers, he explained that Chinese producers have begun investing in production facilities in other regions, including Africa and South America.

Looking at Turkey, Mr. Baysal said that the high cost of energy remains a key challenge for Turkish mills. He noted that, in order to save energy and comply with CBAM regulations, Turkish producers have started investing in solar and renewable energy sources, which are expected to reduce production costs. Meanwhile, saying that there are no clear plans in the EU to ease green transition requirements, though delays remain a possibility, he commented that CBAM will eventually be enforced, but significant work is still needed to establish reference levels for both European and overseas mills. He added that, despite uncertainties, European producers are already moving from blast furnaces to EAFs and investing in renewable energy sources such as solar to balance costs and meet future carbon requirements.

Commenting on protectionist measures, the committee chairman stated that the Trump administration’s tariffs, reaching 75-100 percent in some cases, have nearly halted steel imports into the US, while Canada and Mexico have also imposed strong protective measures, leaving the North American market heavily restricted. Stating that he believes that protectionist measures will continue for the foreseeable future, Baysal said that further barriers against cheaper Asian steel are likely, but stressed that free trade remains the best option, though current trends are moving in the opposite direction.

Regarding prices, he highlighted that the current spread between rebar and scrap prices stands at around $200 or slightly less. He suggested that this points to a likely regression in scrap prices. He also compared production methods, stating that blast furnaces currently hold a cost advantage of about $25/mt over electric arc furnaces as the latter depend on electricity prices, though these are lower in countries like the US. On freight, Baysal noted that container freight rates have come down from post-Covid highs of around $4,000 to about $1,200, adding that he does not expect them to fall further.

Producers at IREPAS: Chinese exports and protectionism squeeze global steel industry

Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, said that, as demand is very limited, everybody is trying to protect what is theirs. “We can sell to the EU only once every three months because of the quota and it fills up as soon as the quota is opened. Because of China we cannot sell to many places. Chinese exports are hurting everyone,” he explained. The committee chairman pointed out that China is the main driver, exporting heavily at low prices, exerting pressure everywhere amid generally limited demand. Many countries are imposing protective measures not only on China but also on some other Asian countries, considering that the Chinese are quick to move their production elsewhere to avoid trade barriers.

Regarding Turkish mills’ capacity utilization rates, Mr. Cebecioglu pointed out that, under current market conditions, utilization rates are not at decent levels and, with protectionist measures still in place, Turkey has limited space to export, with only a few countries left, and competition is very tough in those countries. He also added that the countries to which Turkey used to export have become exporters themselves and this affects Turkish production in return. Turkey’s steel production capacity stands at around 60 million mt, but the country is currently producing just 38 million mt. In addition to trade measures, China is exporting heavily all around the world and, as it is difficult to give low prices to compete with the Chinese, in the end Turkish mills have to cut production, he remarked.

Commenting on China’s work plan for the steel industry in 2025-26, the IREPAS chairman underlined that the Chinese are always coming up with some kind of plan, but it is yet to be seen how much of it will be implemented and how they will proceed. This work plan, he noted, consists of many things; regulations, environmental constraints, shutting of inefficient mills, and technological upgrading for green steel and low carbon production. In the end, future competition will depend on being cleaner, he stressed. He also commented that, if this Chinese work plan goes through, it will mean that there will be export regulations, leaving room for Turkish mills to breath.

Talking about the mega projects in the GCC region, Cebecioglu said that demand is quite good in the region and GCC-based mills are also exporting to the EU and North African countries, where they are very competitive against the Turkish mills. As GCC mills have lower costs compared to Turkish mills, they have the upper hand in prices in terms of costs.