The same pattern continues to prevail in the global long steel products market – weak demand, new capacities and mills running below where they should be. The global picture has narrowed: demand is flat and partly seasonal, supply keeps increasing and the supply-demand balance looks worse every week. The main issue is not really demand or supply, it is about who can still move material. The tonnages are there but trading opportunities have shrunk and competition is relentless. China keeps exporting because it must and, with most traditional markets closing behind protective barriers, exporters are fighting over the same limited opportunities for open trade.

Mills lack profitability, buyers lack interest, system lacks oxygen

Prices appear stable, but confidence seems to be absent. Mills remain busy, but lack profitability, while buyers hold stocks, but have no appetite to buy more. The system still functions, but with less and less oxygen.

Uncertainty still predominates, 2026 foreseen to be difficult for exporters

Uncertainty is still the prevailing tone in the market. The recent China-US talks were not as positive as the leaders described, similar to the situation regarding China’s five-year plan. It seems that China will continue to flood the market with 10 million tonnes every month. On the other hand, due to the 50 percent Section 232 tariffs, US imports will be reduced by 10 million tonnes annually and the new safeguard system in the EU will take approximately another 20 million tonnes of demand from the import market. This means import demand will be down approximately 30 million tonnes annually. With total Chinese exports increasing by around 60 million tonnes, next year will be very difficult for exporting countries.

Longs imports into EU almost at standstill, regional prices foreseen to increase by Q1

In the EU, the uncertainties about CBAM, reduced quotas and higher duties have led to an almost 100 percent standstill in imports of long steel products into the EU market.  As the shipments ordered a month ago are now entering the market, the impact on domestic mills’ price increases is still not visible. The seasonal demand trend will not provide any help either to bring prices up. However, it is expected that the prices of EU domestic producers will increase significantly in the first quarter of 2026 at the latest due to the absence of import alternatives.

New capacities in US increase pressure on prices

US long product demand remains flat and below 2024 levels, while domestic supply has expanded with new mill capacities, adding pressure on prices. Imports are minimal due to the 50 percent Section 232 duty, compounded by the AD/CVD tariffs on traditional suppliers.

Extended US government shutdown hits confidence levels in domestic market

The 0.25 percent interest rate cut in the US has done little to revive construction activity, and even a further reduction of a similar scale expected in December would not significantly shift market sentiment. The ongoing US government shutdown – now exceeding 30 days – has further weakened confidence, delaying infrastructure spending and procurement. Overall, the US market remains oversupplied and cautious, with limited visibility for an improvement into early 2026.

Few positives entering the holiday season, protectionism here to stay for now

We are entering the holiday season up to mid-February and so market activity will be slower than usual in the northern hemisphere. It is very tough to point to real positives in the market, but at least we know where we stand now. Protectionism is not just a temporary phase, it is the current framework market players have to operate in. This at least brings a certain level of stability: there are fewer unexpected twists and there is somewhat greater predictability in the market.

At least no escalation in US-China trade tensions, future interest rate cuts may help

Another positive development is that the trade war between the US and China has not escalated. Further interest cuts in 2026 will certainly help, if they happen.

Current market status unstable, with unsatisfactory outlook

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable with a tough, slow and unsatisfactory outlook.

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According to the regulation, Ukraine should abstain from introducing new duties or from introducing any other restrictions on trade with the EU, unless clearly justified in the war context. In the event that Ukraine fails to comply with any of these conditions, the European Commission should be empowered to temporarily suspend all or part of the preferential arrangements established by this regulation. The customs duties may be reintroduced for imports of any products which threaten or cause serious difficulties to the EU producers.

The Indian government reduced import duty on ferro-nickel, coking coal from 2.5 percent to nil and that on coke and semi-coke from 5 percent to nil to bring down cost of production of steel mills and thereby soften finished product prices.

On the other hand, the government hiked export duty on iron ore and concentrates to 50 percent and imposed a new export levy on pellets at 45 percent. New export duty of 15 percent has also been imposed on pig iron and spiegeleisen in pigs, blocks, or other primary formats; flat-rolled products of different kinds, including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, plated and coated; bars and rods; stainless steel.

Until March 21, 2021, the duties will stand at 15.3 percent for billet and 9.4 percent for rebar and wire rod. In the second year, the duties will be reduced to 13.3 percent for billet and 7.9 percent for rebar and wire rod products, and in the third year through March 21, 2023, they will drop to 11.3 percent and 6.4 percent for billet and for rebar and wire rod, respectively.

The products subject to the duty currently fall under Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers 7210.61.11, 7210.61.12, 7210.61.19, 7210.61.91, 7210.61.92, 7210.61.99, 7212.50.23, 7212.50.24, 7212.50.29, 7210.61.31, 7210.61.39, 7210.61.90, 7210.61.11, 7210.61.12, 7210.61.19, 7210.61.91, 7210.61.92, 7210.61.99, 7212.50.21 and 7212.50. 22.

According to the notification made to the WTO, imports from developing countries shall not be subject to the proposed provisional safeguard measure as long as each country’s exports individually do not exceed three percent of total imports into Egypt. In addition, the share of the countries with less than three percent import share do not collectively account for more than nine percent of total imports into Egypt.

The products subject to the provisional duty currently fall under Egyptian Customs Tariff Schedule Numbers 7207, 7213 and 7214.