The DOC has determined that revocation of the antidumping duty and countervailing duty orders on the given products from Mexico and Turkey would likely to lead to the continuation or reoccurrence of dumping, countervailable subsidies and material injury.

The estimated weighted-average dumping margin for Mexico are at 20.58 percent and 66.70 percent, while subsidy rates are 6.58 percent and 7.71 percent for Turkish companies.

The products subject to the orders are currently classifiable in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) under subheadings 7213.10.0000, 7214.20.0000, and 7228.30.8010.

The DOC found that countervailable subsidies were provided to producers and exporters of rebar from Algeria during the period of review from January 1, 2024, through December 31, 2024.

The final subsidy rate is at 72.94 percent only for Tosyali Iron Steel Industry Algeria SPA and all other Algerian exporters, in line with the preliminary determination.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings

• 7213.10.0000,
• 7214.20.0000,
• 7228.30.8010

of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS). The subject merchandise may also enter under other HTSUS subheadings including

• 7221.00.0017,
• 7221.00.0018,
• 7221.00.0030,
• 7221.00.0045,
• 7222.11.0001,
• 7222.11.0057,
• 7222.11.0059,
• 7222.30.0001,
• 7227.20.0080,
• 7227.90.6030,
• 7227.90.6035,
• 7227.90.6040,
• 7228.20.1000,
• 7228.60.6000.

In addition, the DOC determined an estimated weighted-average antidumping margin of 127.32 percent on the given products for Algeria, based on the investigation period from April 1, 2024, through March 31, 2025.

The weighted-average dumping margins stand at

• 74.35-94.73 percent for Brazil,
• 4.06 percent for Indonesia,
• 20.11 percent for Mexico,
• 369.10 percent for Moldova
• 11.40 percent for Trinidad and Tobago,

while Brazil is also subject to 2.76-6.74 percent countervailing duty.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings

• 7213.91.3000,
• 7213.91.3010,
• 7213.91.3011,
• 7213.91.3015,
• 7213.91.3020,
• 7213.91.3090,
• 7213.91.3091,
• 7213.91.3092,
• 7213.91.3093,
• 7213.91.4500,
• 7213.91.4510,
• 7213.91.4590,
• 7213.91.6000,
• 7213.91.6010,
• 7213.91.6090,
• 7213.99.0030,
• 7213.99.0031,
• 7213.99.0038,
• 7213.99.0090,
• 7227.20.0000,
• 7227.20.0010,
• 7227.20.0020,
• 7227.20.0030,
• 7227.20.0080,
• 7227.20.0090,
• 7227.20.0095,
• 7227.90.6010,
• 7227.90.6020,
• 7227.90.6050,
• 7227.90.6051,
• 7227.90.6053,
• 7227.90.6058,
• 7227.90.6059,
• 7227.90.6080,
• 7227.90.6085

of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS).

The DOC has determined that revocation of the antidumping duty and the countervailing duty orders on wire rod from China would likely to lead to the continuation or reoccurrence of dumping and injury to the US industry.

The dumping margins are at 106.19 percent and 110.25 percent, while subsidy rates are at 178.46 percent, 185.89 percent and 193.31 percent for the country.

The products subject to the orders are currently classifiable in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) under subheadings

• 7213.91.3011,
• 7213.91.3015,
• 7213.91.3020,
• 7213.91.3093,
• 7213.91.4500,
• 7213.91.6000,
• 7213.99.0030,
• 7213.99.0090,
• 7227.20.0030,
• 7227.20.0080,
• 7227.90.6010,
• 7227.90.6020,
• 7227.90.6030,
• 7227.90.6090,
• 7227.90.6035.

The DOC has preliminarily determined that countervailable subsidies are being provided to Colakoglu Metalurji A.S. during the period of review. The DOC has preliminarily calculated a net countervailable subsidy rate of 1.84 percent for the company. In addition, the DOC is rescinding this review with respect to Kaptan Demir Celik Endustrisi ve Ticaret A.S. and Kaptan Metal Dis Ticaret ve Nakliyat A.S. as local producers timely withdrew their request.
The final results of the review are expected to be announced within 120 days of the publication of the preliminary results.

The current antidumping duties on reinforcing bar imported from the countries in question are at 26.6 percent for China, 25.1 percent for South Korea and 6.5 percent for Turkey, while subsidy rate is at 6.1 percent for China.

The Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT) will now conduct an inquiry to determine whether the expiry of its order is likely to result in injury to the Canadian industry and has announced that it will issue its decision no later than June 17, 2026.

The products under review currently fall under Harmonized System (HS) tariff classification numberslisted below:

• 7213.10.00.11,
• 7213.10.00.12,
• 7213.10.00.13,
• 7213.10.00.90,
• 7214.20.00.11,
• 7214.20.00.12,
• 7214.20.00.13,
• 7214.20.00.14,
• 7214.20.00.21,
• 7214.20.00.22,
• 7214.20.00.23,
• 7214.20.00.24,
• 7214.20.00.31,
• 7214.20.00.32,
• 7214.20.00.33,
• 7214.20.00.34,
• 7214.20.00.90,
• 7215.90.00.20,
• 7215.90.00.30,
• 7227.90.00.50,
• 7228.30.00.51,
• 7228.30.00.52,
• 7228.30.00.53

The subsidy for Kaptan Demir Celik was determined at 2.43 percent for the period between January 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022.

In its decision, the court agreed with Commerce that the conditions for “cross-attribution” were not met. Commerce concluded

• the steel scrap supplied by Nur was a general raw material used across many steel products,
• it was not dedicated mainly or exclusively to Kaptan’s rebar operations,
• Nur’s scrap came from shipbuilding activities and was not designed specifically for rebar production.

Under US rules, subsidies to an upstream supplier can only be attributed to a downstream producer if the input is “primarily dedicated” to making the downstream product. The court found that this standard was not met.

The same pattern continues to prevail in the global long steel products market – weak demand, new capacities and mills running below where they should be. The global picture has narrowed: demand is flat and partly seasonal, supply keeps increasing and the supply-demand balance looks worse every week. The main issue is not really demand or supply, it is about who can still move material. The tonnages are there but trading opportunities have shrunk and competition is relentless. China keeps exporting because it must and, with most traditional markets closing behind protective barriers, exporters are fighting over the same limited opportunities for open trade.

Mills lack profitability, buyers lack interest, system lacks oxygen

Prices appear stable, but confidence seems to be absent. Mills remain busy, but lack profitability, while buyers hold stocks, but have no appetite to buy more. The system still functions, but with less and less oxygen.

Uncertainty still predominates, 2026 foreseen to be difficult for exporters

Uncertainty is still the prevailing tone in the market. The recent China-US talks were not as positive as the leaders described, similar to the situation regarding China’s five-year plan. It seems that China will continue to flood the market with 10 million tonnes every month. On the other hand, due to the 50 percent Section 232 tariffs, US imports will be reduced by 10 million tonnes annually and the new safeguard system in the EU will take approximately another 20 million tonnes of demand from the import market. This means import demand will be down approximately 30 million tonnes annually. With total Chinese exports increasing by around 60 million tonnes, next year will be very difficult for exporting countries.

Longs imports into EU almost at standstill, regional prices foreseen to increase by Q1

In the EU, the uncertainties about CBAM, reduced quotas and higher duties have led to an almost 100 percent standstill in imports of long steel products into the EU market.  As the shipments ordered a month ago are now entering the market, the impact on domestic mills’ price increases is still not visible. The seasonal demand trend will not provide any help either to bring prices up. However, it is expected that the prices of EU domestic producers will increase significantly in the first quarter of 2026 at the latest due to the absence of import alternatives.

New capacities in US increase pressure on prices

US long product demand remains flat and below 2024 levels, while domestic supply has expanded with new mill capacities, adding pressure on prices. Imports are minimal due to the 50 percent Section 232 duty, compounded by the AD/CVD tariffs on traditional suppliers.

Extended US government shutdown hits confidence levels in domestic market

The 0.25 percent interest rate cut in the US has done little to revive construction activity, and even a further reduction of a similar scale expected in December would not significantly shift market sentiment. The ongoing US government shutdown – now exceeding 30 days – has further weakened confidence, delaying infrastructure spending and procurement. Overall, the US market remains oversupplied and cautious, with limited visibility for an improvement into early 2026.

Few positives entering the holiday season, protectionism here to stay for now

We are entering the holiday season up to mid-February and so market activity will be slower than usual in the northern hemisphere. It is very tough to point to real positives in the market, but at least we know where we stand now. Protectionism is not just a temporary phase, it is the current framework market players have to operate in. This at least brings a certain level of stability: there are fewer unexpected twists and there is somewhat greater predictability in the market.

At least no escalation in US-China trade tensions, future interest rate cuts may help

Another positive development is that the trade war between the US and China has not escalated. Further interest cuts in 2026 will certainly help, if they happen.

Current market status unstable, with unsatisfactory outlook

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable with a tough, slow and unsatisfactory outlook.

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The review was initiated on August 22, 2025, with respect to Habaş based on the petition of the Rebar Trade Action Coalition. The DOC concluded there were no entries of the subject merchandise during the period of review.

The CBSA will make a determination no later than December 19, 2025, and will issue a statement of reasons by January 2, 2026, on whether the expiry of the order is likely to result in the continuation or resumption of dumping or subsidizing of the subject goods.

The current antidumping duties on reinforcing bar imported from the countries in question are as below:

• China: 26.6 percent
• South Korea : 25.1 percent
• Turkey: 6.5 percent

The subsidy rate is at 6.1 percent for China.

The products under review currently fall under Harmonized System (HS) tariff classification numbers

• 7213.10.00.11,
• 7213.10.00.12,
• 7213.10.00.13,
• 7213.10.00.90,
• 7214.20.00.11,
• 7214.20.00.12,
• 7214.20.00.13,
• 7214.20.00.14,
• 7214.20.00.21,
• 7214.20.00.22,
• 7214.20.00.23,
• 7214.20.00.24,
• 7214.20.00.31,
• 7214.20.00.32,
• 7214.20.00.33,
• 7214.20.00.34,
• 7214.20.00.90,
• 7215.90.00.20,
• 7215.90.00.30,
• 7227.90.00.50,
• 7228.30.00.51,
• 7228.30.00.52,
• 7228.30.00.53