At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the global long products market has been slowing down in general, which is putting pressure on producers. He added that demand for reinforcing bars and wire rods remains very weak and there is strong pressure on prices from the new exporters who are in the market with very aggressive offers and who are not subject to antidumping or countervailing duty measures so far.

The IREPAS chairman said protectionism still prevails as the EU has extended its safeguard measures for another year, which is clear proof that world trade is no longer as it was defined by the Uruguay Round and will continue with its current protectionist structure, which will exert pressure on developing countries. He also added that the CBAM in the EU will replace the current safeguard measures in the region within 12 months.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Situation in China exerts huge impact on global market

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, stated that construction activities in China were slowing down, while steel production remained at high levels despite government restrictions, which has increased the demand for iron ore in the country. The high levels of steel production in China lead to an increase in its exports, negatively impacting the global market. He added that steel production in the country is expected to be cut during the winter season, which may provide a bright spot for the global market going forward, especially for Turkey which is struggling to compete with China’s competitive prices. Noting that the Chinese economy has been struggling for a while, Björkman said that the recent monetary policy easing and stimulus measures in the country to boost the real estate and steel industries will not be enough to boost demand and prices in China.

Looking at Turkey, commenting that domestic production rates are slower than last year due to difficulties such as the high inflation and the hike in interest rates which Turkish mills are facing, he noted that the industry continues to generate demand. However, the production costs from energy are expected to decline, which would positively impact steel production rates.

Focusing on scrap, noting that the US, which still outperforms the rest of the world in economic and business terms, keeps generating decent scrap volumes, while the EU will continue to generate low volumes of scrap, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee stated that the rising volumes of ex-US scrap supply to Asia were supported by lower container freight rates.

Traders at IREPAS: EU may adjust quotas amid higher long product imports

F. D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, stated that the situation has changed dramatically in the EU steel market due to high interest rates, while investments in construction and consequently steel demand and prices have moved down considerably. Stressing that the EU protects its steel market with safeguard measures, he stated that increased long product imports do not carry as much risk as the surge in flat product imports. He said that the EU may tighten future quota allocations for ‘other countries’ as the long product exports of Egypt and Algeria into the region have increased. In addition, the chairman of the traders committee stated that the subsidies provided under “decarbonization targets” will continue to increase in the  EU, which evaluates the governmental support in the other countries as unfair.Continuing with China, he stated that Chinese steel mills have not reduced steel production in accordance with government restrictions, raising concerns for global suppliers, as China’s exports will increase if its production cannot be utilized domestically. Even though he said he does not believe that Chinese mills will cut production, he added that, if they do so, it will not affect scrap imports but will reduce iron ore demand as 90 percent of the country’s steel production is blast furnace-based.

Noting that the EU continues to put pressure on Russian products with sanctions, Baysal stated that Turkey’s rebar exports have decreased as the country cannot use sanctioned Russian billets to produce products for shipment overseas. Russian billet was at first used in the reconstruction of the earthquake-hit zone in southern Turkey, while now the region’s needs are supplied by domestic production. Noting that Turkey has lost most of its traditional steel export markets, the chairman of the traders committee said that the Turkish industry needs government support as the mills are facing the US Section 232 tariffs and the EU’s safeguard measures.

Producers at IREPAS: Longs market is slowing down amid weak demand 

Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, stated that the long steel market has been slowing down amid weak demand which is putting immense pressure on prices. He talked about the general situation in the market, pointing out that previous importers such as Egypt, the GCC and Algeria have now become exporters. Since these countries are not subject to protectionist measures for the time being, they are exporting anywhere they can, especially claiming the market share of Turkey, which is being squeezed by protectionism all over the place, he noted.

Focusing on the Turkish market, Mr. Cebecioglu said there are many unknowns for the future, while protectionism in particular is a big issue for Turkey whose exports are hindered by Canada, the EU and the US. “There are only a few markets left where there is demand and everybody is focusing on those markets,” the IREPAS chairman said. Regarding the Turkish government’s change of monetary policy and starting to raise interest rates, he indicated that this gives hope to the market, though he went on to say that the local market is doing alright, but this will depend on whether the government will continue to increase interest rates.

With Turkey facing some difficulties such as the energy crisis, high production costs and inflation, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that electricity prices are a major factor for Turkish mills and, compared to oil and gas-rich countries, competing has become impossible for Turkey. Replying to a question about possible steps by the government to support the Turkish steel industry, the producers committee chairman pointed out that, under today’s economic conditions, subsidization also leads to another problem, namely, countervailing measures.

Commenting on the longs and semi-finished imports from the ASEAN region, Cebecioğlu said that ASEAN-based mills have been exporting all around the world including to destinations such as Central America, the EU and South America, adding that, together with the newcomers, they have taken all of Turkey’s market shares.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the Covid-19 pandemic has moved in a wave from Asia to America through Europe and the Middle East and has certainly worsened the market situation. He added that there has been a reduction in both supply and demand around the world, except in China where output keeps growing, and that demand in the global long steel products market is indeed not as bad as the newspapers and media outlets report.

IREPAS chairman also added that the very strong quarter seen in China and the current outlook supported by the country’s net importation of steel products have been driving the rebound. He said almost the whole market is driven by daily news and signals from China nowadays, adding that after a poor spring characterized by the idling of production capacities due to the coronavirus pandemic, we are currently in a period of recovery. But the Chairman also warned that with the ongoing political uncertainties and new threats from many corners around the globe, the overall market situation is becoming cloudy and more uncertain.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Main savior was Chinese demand

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, stated that, with the start of the pandemic, prices, demand and scrap collection crashed, noting that scrap collection halted dramatically all over the world but that in some regions the steel industries were hugely affected.

The committee chairman said that, for example, in the northern EU the lockdown was less dramatic than in the southern EU, and so some raw material businesses shifted their focus to northern EU scrap-based mills. He pointed out that, once the initial effect faded, scrap prices were fairly stable from April. Looking at the summer months, Mr. Björkman said that most regions were recovering fairly quickly. He recalled that scrap prices were slightly under $300/mt in the pre-pandemic period, went down to around $220/mt, and are now back at levels similar to those before the pandemic, underlining that the main savior was China’s extreme demand for raw materials and semi-finished steel, which they imported from many regions of the world. During this period, the weakening of the US dollar also resulted in scrap prices going upwards, he noted.

Commenting on the possible impacts of the outcome of the US presidential election on the scrap markets, the raw material suppliers committee chairman said that what is important for the scrap market is investments in new melting furnaces and these capacity growth projects cannot depend on a president’s term of office. So in the long run, he said he does not expect the election to affect the steel industry, though there may be some differences in how to conduct trade.

On China becoming a net importer, Mr. Björkman said that this means China will probably have less trade frictions with the US when it comes to steel, while he sees a build-up of steel capacities outside China, namely in ASEAN countries, as being more problematic.

Regarding the outlook, while admitting that there is a lot of uncertainty about the continuation of lockdowns or possible new lockdowns, Björkman said that he is a little bit more optimistic for the demand side. The committee chairman stated that, after the initial phase of shock due to the pandemic, many have been surprised regarding the positive aspects. He added that some companies issued warnings regarding negative results, but business turned out to be better than expected in many cases, though some are still struggling.

Traders at IREPAS: Prices increase amid regional trade flow interruptions

Wilhelm Alff and F.D. Baysal, co-chairmen of the traders committee, informed the participants about the market developments during the last six months. Mr. Baysal said that market conditions in the US are stable, improving after the big shock caused by the pandemic, while capacity utilization rates are still way behind 2019 levels. He pointed out that, compared to early September last year, capacity utilization rates are still 15 percentage points lower. Regarding the construction sector, he said that the residential segment showed an improvement, though the non-residential segment is still down with little prospects of a recovery. He also said that in September prices finally saw an increase in all categories.

Mr. Baysal said that there will not be many changes regarding trade measures depending on the US election results. He said he believed that if Trump wins the US will continue filing a maximum number of AD and CVD investigations until no competition is left and that Section 232 will continue and ,while Biden may be more sympathetic to free trade, Section 232 will still remain in force if Biden wins.

Baysal also added that, for non-residential construction in the US, there will be some fundamental changes and some are already in progress. For example, as people are working from home and companies will occupy less office space, he expects a major stagnation in this market. He also expects less demand for commercial buildings.

As regards Central and South America, Baysal said that these countries are on the verge of a slow improvement in both demand and supply. Some countries such as Mexico and Brazil were hit hard by the pandemic. However, both of these countries including Argentina are exempt from Section 232, and so their supply will increase with demand coming from the US. Nevertheless, he added that he does not foresee a big improvement in terms of domestic demand in 2020.

Commenting on Europe, Wilhelm Alff said that in Germany construction continued uninterruptedly, with demand for steel being even higher than normal, as many construction sites speeded up projects worrying that they might have to shut down altogether. On the other hand, in countries such as Spain, France, Italy and Poland, demand decreased as trade flows were interrupted and consumption decreased by 10-25 percent in these areas. He noted that, after declining at the beginning of the pandemic, scrap prices have increased by $90/mt up to the present because of the regional interruption of trade flows. Meanwhile, rebar prices in the EU have increased by €60 compared to the beginning of the pandemic.

Regarding EU quotas, Alff gave some background information on the changes in EU safeguard measures, indicating that the quarterly allocation which came into force as of July 1 is an advantage, because this way the market is not flooded with all the material arriving at the same time. He said that the safeguard measures have already led to a drastic reduction in imports, and pointed out that in 2019 steel imports into the EU totaled 1.8 million mt, while in the first half of the current year total steel imports came to less than 400,000 mt.

Producers at IREPAS: Global long steel demand more or less same as before pandemic

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also of the producers committee at the virtual event, said that the pandemic did of course worsen the market situation, reducing demand, while remarking that China has been the driving force behind the whole market and has no intention to export. He indicated that the situation in the global long products market is now unchanged compared to the pre-pandemic period; the market is stable and demand is more or less the same as it was before. Regional markets are performing well, with demand returning and EU-based cut-and-benders are quite busy. Looking at North America, prices in the US finally moved up on the back of higher raw material prices. The IREPAS chairman stated that the upward trend of scrap prices has already started slowing down, with a downward correction observed these current days, adding that producers prefer billet unless a strong spread appears between billet and scrap prices.

Commenting on whether the recent increase in Turkish rebar cargoes to the US will continue, the chairman of the producers committee said, “New shipments were booked in the aftermath of the Section 232 duty rate going back to 25 percent; that is why it looks like there is a surge. The truth is that Turkey will not be able to reach the level of exports it had prior to Section 232. When the duty rate was 50 percent, Turkey was replaced by domestic producers and other countries such as Spain, Italy and Portugal. It is not easy to recover the market shares in the US lost to other countries, especially while Turkey is still subject to AD and CVD measures.”

Mr. Cebecioğlu said that the increase in Turkey’s domestic steel consumption may be the result of the reduction in interest rates, which boosted demand for steel, providing support for the domestic market. He added, however, that he has doubts about whether this growth will persist.

The global long steel products market is currently in a positive mood amid good demand worldwide. Had there not been protectionist actions like additional tariffs, quotas or safeguard measures, the global business scenario would be much better. Protectionism is like a virus, expanding and hurting the international trade environment as we knew it.

Canada and Mexico follow the US and also jump on the protectionist bandwagon

In the Americas, after the US, Canada has also got on the bandwagon though not with the same intensity, and now Mexico has announced that it will be reinstating the 15 percent duty on steel imports. Demand in all three countries is strong, but the benefit goes to domestic mills only.

Canada and Mexico expected to eventually sign USMCA agreement

It seems that Canada will be the first to sign the USMCA (the new NAFTA) agreement, if they agree to a quota to replace the tariffs. Politics in both the US and Canada could delay this: however, it appears that the earliest resolution could happen by late summer. Mexico’s signing of the agreement may be delayed months after the signing by Canada.

US and China appear to be moving closer to a trade deal

On the other hand, the negotiations between China and the US seem to be improving as we read reports saying that they are getting closer to a trade deal. Obviously, the markets in China and Asia are all awaiting news on the China vs US feud.

EU quotas boost domestic markets, strengthening dollar discourages imports

The recently implemented quotas in the EU are having a very positive effect on the EU producers’ capacity utilisation and increasing their margins significantly. In addition, with the US dollar gaining strength against the Euro, imports are even getting less and less attractive which further improves EU producers’ advantage in the market.

Exporters continue to suffer amid uncertainties in the global market

Both US and EU mills still enjoy good business in their respective domestic markets with margins like never before thanks to the tariffs and safeguard measures in place. However exporters continue to suffer due to the uncertainties in the global market. The market players who benefit from fair and free trade are suffering because of protectionism and the current political mood.

Demand for ferrous scrap has recovered since the start of the year

The European, US, Chinese markets are all performing well with strong domestic demand for steel which drives scrap demand. Accordingly, demand for ferrous scrap has returned since the beginning of the year. After seeing bottom levels in December, the long steel products market has started moving in an upward direction since January and is also supported by raw material prices.

Turkish long product steel mills continue to suffer

The global steel market is indeed characterized by a positive mood at the moment, but the Turkish long product mills are still struggling because of protectionism in the global market and the lack of domestic consumption.

Turkish suppliers face shrinking export opportunities

Not many markets are left in which Turkish exporters can conclude business, as both the US and Canadian markets are closed because of duties, and the new quota regime makes it difficult to do business in Europe. The GCC and Far Eastern markets are also out of reach to Turkish suppliers for the moment because of the price gap. The remaining target markets are Central and South America, North and South Africa, Israel and Yemen, but the volume that can be generated from all these countries is quite limited.

Steel mills’ margins still positive though not as good as last year

The good news is that most steel mills globally have positive margins despite all the ups and downs, even though the margins are not as good as last year. Also, despite the increase in iron ore prices, scrap prices have not moved up at the same rate.

Good domestic demand in China continues to keep Chinese exports in check

Chinese exports are still being held relatively in check thanks to good demand in the Chinese domestic market. No downward price trend is expected in the short run in China due to the additional state support for the market. Also, the outlook for a deal with the US will help to keep the Chinese economy on an increasing GDP trend. Expectations for China and the US to reach an agreement on trade tariffs toward the end of March have been driving the financial markets for some time.

Strong competition exists in the international markets not blocked by protectionism

Competition is limited and moderate in most markets due to protectionism, tariffs and quotas. The markets are having to adjust accordingly as the playground is smaller now. There is strong competition in those limited number of markets which are not closed to international market players by protectionism.

Outlook for global longs market still satisfactory despite ongoing instability

The current status of the global long steel products market is perceived as being mostly unstable due to the aforementioned reasons. Having said that and despite all the existing issues, the outlook is still satisfactory, even though it remains challenging.

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