Ioannis Manessis is a principal of Hellenic Halyvourgia S.A., a Greek steel producer established in 1963.

Over the past 25 years, he has held several senior roles within the company, including Export Director, Managing Director, and Vice President of the Board of Directors. Through these positions, he has developed extensive technical and commercial expertise in the long steel products sector.
In addition to his work in the steel industry, Mr. Manessis is actively involved in dry bulk shipping activities.

Mr. Manessis holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from Harvard University (1998)

He succeeds Mr. Murat Cebecioglu.

IREPAS would like to convey its’ appreciation to Mr. Murat Cebecioglu. His leadership, talent and expertise have been a great asset to the Association in his time as Chairman and helped the association expand significantly despite several significant geopolitical and economical issues on top of severe protectionism.

There were 123 representatives from 49 different producers among the 406 registered delegates from a total of 56 different countries. There were also 79 registrations representing 41 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that demand is still very weak in the global longs market and the situation remains difficult as mills are cutting back on production and protectionist measures are continuing full speed ahead, while China and other countries in Asia are exporting a lot, putting pressure on prices.

The IREPAS chairman added that there is very severe competition in the market, and every producer is fighting with its last penny in order to keep operating.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Global trade conditions are “devastating” due to uncertainty

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, said that, in the recent period, global trade conditions have been extremely difficult, describing the situation as “devastating” amid the current uncertainty. Pointing out that trade barriers and uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on the market, particularly with the US tariffs forcing some countries to find alternative destinations, he added that this shift has created pressure on other markets, including Turkey. Regarding the protectionism in the market, he stated that there are rumors that the EU will impose some duties on Asian materials due to the huge inflows of cheaper steel from the region. Meanwhile, noting that China, which is the main exporter of cheap steel, has signaled plans to reduce steel production and exports in 2025 and 2026, albeit the actual outcome remains uncertain, he said that, in the longer term, larger investments in EAF-based production are expected, supported by stable electricity supply and growing domestic scrap availability. China has also announced a cut of about 90 million metric tons in its steel production in 2025.

Highlighting that the planned green transition in the steel industry is increasingly being questioned, with many investments being cancelled and projects being delayed, Mr. Björkman stated that the EU’s move toward electric furnace-based production has now been postponed by at least three to four years. He underlined that, if carbon emission trading in Europe and the related pricing system are fully implemented, emission reduction technologies will need to be installed more widely. However, he said that, instead of hydrogen-based DRI, natural gas could be used in the short term. In addition, the raw materials committee chairman said EU waste shipment regulations treating scrap as waste will create more bureaucracy, especially for non-OECD countries needing formal approvals to buy European scrap, while OECD trade remains unaffected. Regarding the concerns over domestic scrap oversupply, he stated that Europe already faces excess supply overall, but certain grades like clean automotive scrap could face shortages. This imbalance, he explained, is why EU steel producers push to keep scrap within Europe.

Looking at Turkey, Björkman noted that the recent increase in freight costs has become a burden for suppliers, leading prices to increase slightly in Turkey, though how long this situation will last remains difficult to predict. Regarding the changes in Turkey’s inward processing regime, the committee chairman stated that Turkish mills, who are already struggling amid high costs, may become less competitive in the short term as scrap prices may increase slightly, leading the mills to reduce production.

Meanwhile, stating that raw material demand in the GCC market is expected to focus more on DRI/HBI, which remains limited in supply, he emphasized that larger volumes will be needed in Europe to support flat steel production and the green transition, though a mix of DRI/HBI and scrap is likely to be used.

Traders at IREPAS: Protectionist measures will continue for foreseeable future

F.D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, said that China’s exports have increased at a much higher pace than its production. He stated that there are no expectations for production cuts in China and that its domestic stock levels remain at normal levels. In response to questions on how China is reacting to trade barriers, he explained that Chinese producers have begun investing in production facilities in other regions, including Africa and South America.

Looking at Turkey, Mr. Baysal said that the high cost of energy remains a key challenge for Turkish mills. He noted that, in order to save energy and comply with CBAM regulations, Turkish producers have started investing in solar and renewable energy sources, which are expected to reduce production costs. Meanwhile, saying that there are no clear plans in the EU to ease green transition requirements, though delays remain a possibility, he commented that CBAM will eventually be enforced, but significant work is still needed to establish reference levels for both European and overseas mills. He added that, despite uncertainties, European producers are already moving from blast furnaces to EAFs and investing in renewable energy sources such as solar to balance costs and meet future carbon requirements.

Commenting on protectionist measures, the committee chairman stated that the Trump administration’s tariffs, reaching 75-100 percent in some cases, have nearly halted steel imports into the US, while Canada and Mexico have also imposed strong protective measures, leaving the North American market heavily restricted. Stating that he believes that protectionist measures will continue for the foreseeable future, Baysal said that further barriers against cheaper Asian steel are likely, but stressed that free trade remains the best option, though current trends are moving in the opposite direction.

Regarding prices, he highlighted that the current spread between rebar and scrap prices stands at around $200 or slightly less. He suggested that this points to a likely regression in scrap prices. He also compared production methods, stating that blast furnaces currently hold a cost advantage of about $25/mt over electric arc furnaces as the latter depend on electricity prices, though these are lower in countries like the US. On freight, Baysal noted that container freight rates have come down from post-Covid highs of around $4,000 to about $1,200, adding that he does not expect them to fall further.

Producers at IREPAS: Chinese exports and protectionism squeeze global steel industry

Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, said that, as demand is very limited, everybody is trying to protect what is theirs. “We can sell to the EU only once every three months because of the quota and it fills up as soon as the quota is opened. Because of China we cannot sell to many places. Chinese exports are hurting everyone,” he explained. The committee chairman pointed out that China is the main driver, exporting heavily at low prices, exerting pressure everywhere amid generally limited demand. Many countries are imposing protective measures not only on China but also on some other Asian countries, considering that the Chinese are quick to move their production elsewhere to avoid trade barriers.

Regarding Turkish mills’ capacity utilization rates, Mr. Cebecioglu pointed out that, under current market conditions, utilization rates are not at decent levels and, with protectionist measures still in place, Turkey has limited space to export, with only a few countries left, and competition is very tough in those countries. He also added that the countries to which Turkey used to export have become exporters themselves and this affects Turkish production in return. Turkey’s steel production capacity stands at around 60 million mt, but the country is currently producing just 38 million mt. In addition to trade measures, China is exporting heavily all around the world and, as it is difficult to give low prices to compete with the Chinese, in the end Turkish mills have to cut production, he remarked.

Commenting on China’s work plan for the steel industry in 2025-26, the IREPAS chairman underlined that the Chinese are always coming up with some kind of plan, but it is yet to be seen how much of it will be implemented and how they will proceed. This work plan, he noted, consists of many things; regulations, environmental constraints, shutting of inefficient mills, and technological upgrading for green steel and low carbon production. In the end, future competition will depend on being cleaner, he stressed. He also commented that, if this Chinese work plan goes through, it will mean that there will be export regulations, leaving room for Turkish mills to breath.

Talking about the mega projects in the GCC region, Cebecioglu said that demand is quite good in the region and GCC-based mills are also exporting to the EU and North African countries, where they are very competitive against the Turkish mills. As GCC mills have lower costs compared to Turkish mills, they have the upper hand in prices in terms of costs.

Day 1: Sunday, September 28, 2025

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Sofitel Munich Bayerpost

Day 2: Monday, September 29, 2025

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:30 – 11:10                  SESSION ONE – Critical changes in the global long steel markets and macroeconomic overview

- Long products market outlook

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group

- Global steel scrap markets in times of uncertainty

Frank Pothen, Professor of Economics, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena

 - Future chances and challenges in the economic environment of the global steel industry

Dr. Heinz-Jürgen Büchner, Independent Commodity Consultant

11:10 – 11:40 Networking break

 11:40 – 13:00 SESSION TWO – Global Steel Market Outlook 

- Indian and ASEAN steel and scrap market outlook 

Anastasiia Kononenko, Head of Asia Intelligence Team, SteelOrbis

- Chinese steel market outlook

Jiang Li, Chief Analyst, Baosteel

- African steel market outlook (20+5)

Ramy Saleh, Chief Business Development, Export, Marketing and Sustainability Officer, El Marakby Steel

13:00 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, September 30, 2025

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

There were 143 representatives from 49 different producers among the 502 registered delegates from a total of 58 different countries. There were also 97 registrations representing 50 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that the global long steel products market is currently overwhelmed by a spiral of duties and trade measures and protectionism such as has never been experienced before. He stated that the recently created uncertainties in the market on top of the already existing problems, the markets are now somewhat lost.

The IREPAS chairman added that the current environment is not bright and the level of competition in the global market is very strong, being almost at maximum levels.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Challenging year ahead, market will be much slower in H2

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, noted that the EU steel industry has started the year quite well, though steel production in the region was low in the first quarter. He highlighted that the new German government is expected to ease the pressure from the uncertainties on the market, which may boost steel production. Noting that the green transition in the EU seems to be postponed, indicating that there seems to be no viable transition until at least 2030, he stated that a lot of mills in the EU will start shifting from the blast furnace route to the electric arc furnace route in the next five to 10 years and there will be uneven demand for scrap until that time. Addressing the scrap export restriction plans in the EU, he stated that, as scrap demand is low in the region now, any restrictions would put pressure on the steel industry but may also lead to more bureaucratized trade between scrap generators and steelmakers.

Regarding the Trump administration’s tariff actions, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee stated that, in the first few months this year, sales to the US were at enormous levels as a new tariff was anticipated. Noting that EU-based mills were running at high capacity to export to the US before the implementation of new measures, he said he believes that the market will be much slower in the second half of this year. He added that Trump’s second term will be much different than his first term. In addition, he expressed the belief that, despite the actions taken by the US, Canada and Mexico will not impose tax on steel exports to the US as the US is their biggest trade partner and a restriction would hurt their own industries.

Björkman stated that iron ore prices have been fluctuating at around $100/mt CFR, compared to $89/mt CFR seen in September 2024, due to higher production at the end of last year and early this year. He noted that, if China lowers steel production and the general output of iron ore increases, these two factors together will result in lower iron ore prices.

Traders at IREPAS: No reduction in US tariffs expected, trade conditions remain challenging

F. D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, stated that, although the US imposing new 25 percent tariffs on imports from the countries previously exempted from the Section 232 measures seems like an advantage for the countries such as Egypt and Turkey which were already subject to 25 percent tariffs, only 18 percent of total imports into the US was from the Section 232-paying countries and 82 percent was from the exempted countries. He added that, despite the advantages some countries will gain, there will be no improvement in the market conditions given the economic uncertainties and the general market slowdown. Also, he said he believes that there will be no reduction in the US tariffs.

Looking at the EU, he said there have been some reductions in the import quota volumes, resulting in more challenging trade conditions. Considering the increased sales of wire rod and HRC over the past quarter from the ASEAN region to the EU, Mr. Baysal noted that, even though there are some restrictions on certain ASEAN countries, the EU is now more open to those countries compared to its old traditional markets given the free trade agreements between the EU and some Southeast Asian countries.

Mr Baysal added that he foresees no reduction in China’s exports and capacity utilization going forward.

Producers at IREPAS: Markets in unknown territory because of tariffs

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, pointed out that the hot topic during the producers committee meeting was tariffs and their effect on business, adding that this is completely unknown territory and that nobody has any idea where things are headed at the moment, which makes it very difficult to conduct business.

He said that, as the Chinese domestic market is not doing so well, China will still be the main factor depressing prices as it is heavily dependent on exports and its prices are quite low compared to those of other exporters. He went on to say that the stimulus package is not helping much at the moment to boost to market, which is why China is selling billet to countries like Turkey and many other countries.

The IREPAS chairman noted that, as billet is a competitive alternative to scrap in terms of price, particularly Turkish mills will keep buying billet, adding that, as long as prices are at the current levels buying billets is much more profitable, even though the lead times from Asia are two to three times longer.

Commenting on the GCC shifting from being an importer to being an exporter, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that the reason they are exporting is that they have overcapacity, and are selling to the EU, especially Germany, and to North Africa and Israel. He indicated that the answer to the question on whether their exports will continue depends on how infrastructure projects will take shape in the region in the coming period and how much of that demand the local market can absorb: otherwise, they will continue to export.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Athenaeum InterContinental Athens Hotel

Day 2: Monday, April 28, 2025

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:30 – 10:50                   SESSION ONE – Critical changes in the global long steel markets and macroeconomic overview

- Long products market outlook

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group

- Macroeconomic Overview

Nikos Vettas, Professor, Athens University of Economics and Business / General Director, Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research

10:50 – 11:20                     Networking break

11:20 – 13:00                    SESSION TWO – Major factors effecting the markets

- Chinese steel market outlook

Su Changyong, Vice Chairman, Metallurgical Council of CCPIT / Deputy Secretary General, CISA / President, Metallurgical Industry Press

- Trump’s trade policy and EU reactions: what lies ahead for steel trade?

Matthew Nolan, Counsel, ArentFox Schiff LLP

Nikolay Mizulin, Partner and Co-leader of International Trade, Mayer Brown

Bulent Hacioglu, Managing Partner, Trade Resources Company

- The next phase of CBAM: preparing for 2026 and beyond

Jamie Mcleod, Senior Manager, Customs, Crowe U.K. LLP

13:00 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, April 29, 2025

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

There were 140 representatives from 47 different producers among the 493 registered delegates from a total of 58 different countries. There were also 100 registrations representing 57 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that the supply and demand balance in the global long steel industry is becoming more and more unstable. Explaining that Chinese finished steel products are dominating most markets, he noted that the situation is close to what the market went through ten years ago and stressed that, if the Chinese continue in the same way, the global steel industry will suffer great damage.

The IREPAS chairman added that the markets are in a bearish mood and are holding back with a not so promising outlook.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Previous optimism for H2 postponed to 2025       

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the finding of the committee meeting on the general situation in the global steel and raw material markets, noting that the optimistic sentiments seen in spring this year for the second half of the year have been postponed until 2025. Emphasizing that iron ore prices are under pressure from lower production in China, he stated that slowing Chinese production could work in favor of the rest of the world in terms of reduced Chinese export volumes.

Looking at the EU, pointing out that scrap generation in the region has slowed down as the sales of downstream industries have decreased amid lower personal spendings in the region, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee noted that the lower scrap generation in Europe has led to scrap prices being stable at higher levels. He also commented that business activity in Germany, which is the main driver in the EU, is slowing down even though the year started with improvements in the construction and housing industries, the positive effects of which will be seen on the raw material side until the end of the year.

Regarding the situation in Turkey, Björkman said that the country has postponed scrap purchases during summer and autumn this year due to competitive alternative options of semi-finished products from Asia, especially China. He added that he expects Turkey to continue to purchase imports of billets, slabs and HRC, thus negatively affecting scrap prices.

Traders at IREPAS: Competitive Chinese billets pull Turkish mills away from scrap       

Wilhelm Alff, chairman of the traders committee, stated that China’s exports have been increasing constantly, with the country’s average monthly exports trending at 5.6 million mt in 2022, at 7.7 million mt in 2023 and expected to be around 8.7 million mt in 2024. Noting that China has been exporting semi-finished and finished steel products heavily at competitive prices, he stated that any surge in protectionist measures in reaction to this would just provide short-term relief, only changing product flow.

The traders committee chairman stated that, given the attractive prices of Chinese material, especially billet, Turkish mills are expected to continue to buy Chinese billet as an alternative to higher-priced scrap, putting pressure on scrap prices.

Regarding iron ore, Mr. Alff stated that rebar production in China has decreased amid destocking due to the switch to the new rebar standard, resulting in lower demand for iron ore. He said that iron ore stocks at Chinese ports currently stand at 149 million mt. Emphasizing the current spread between scrap and iron ore costs, Alff commented that everybody wants to be a blast furnace-based steel producer for the next six months.

Producers at IREPAS: Prospects for near future do not look bright

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, said that, since China is the main driving force behind the global steel industry, everybody is unfortunately taking a position according to what China is doing. He pointed out that China is shipping semis and finished steel products to almost everywhere in the world, thereby putting pressure on prices and creating a huge supply and demand imbalance, while it is becoming even tougher for everyone else to compete.

Sharing the findings of the producers committee with the conference participants, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that producers in GCC countries are a little more optimistic than those in other countries as their economies are moving in the right direction, amid new projects, in Saudi Arabia for example, which are creating demand in the market, with the construction and real estate sectors being the driving force in the GCC region. Looking at the EU, the chairman of the producers committee said that business has seemed to be at a standstill in the region for more than a year now and hardly any improvement is expected in the next six months or so. On the other hand, Turkey is stuck in terms of export opportunities, being pushed into a corner by various protectionist measures, while it cannot sell to some Asian countries which used to be its main export destinations for long products because of Chinese competition. Commenting on the global longs market in general, Cebecioğlu said, “The near future does not look bright. We will probably see the same trend unless China stops exporting.”

Turning to the current situation in China, the IREPAS chairman said that, besides reducing production, the Chinese will also have to boost domestic demand, which is slow given the problems in the Chinese real estate sector. He went on to say that just reducing production by itself will not be enough, the government should provide some stimulus program as well. Regarding Turkey’s billet imports as an alternative to scrap, he said that Turkish mills will buy less scrap, complementing their needs with billet imports from China, which means they will be producing less semis, and this situation may also exert some pressure on scrap prices.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Marriott Rive Gauche Hotel Paris

Day 2: Monday, September 16, 2024

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:30 – 11:00                   SESSION ONE – Global markets and CBAM impact

- Latest developments in the global steel market and recent trends in steelmaking capacity

Luciano Giua, Economist/Policy Analyst, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

- Navigating the EU CBAM: Financial impacts and strategies for cost mitigation

Louis Redshaw, Ceo/Founder, Redshaw Advisors Ltd

                                           SESSION TWO – ASEAN steelmarket outlook

Moderator: Anastasiia Kononenko, Head of Market Intelligence-Asian markets, SteelOrbis

Yeoh Wee Jin, Secretary General, South Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI)

11:00 – 11:30                     Networking break

11:30 – 12:30                    SESSION THREE – Macroeconomic overview

- Evaluation of economies – in EU, US, China globally

Wars and impacts of political crises
Predictions of possible scenarios for US elections

Daniel Gros, Professor, Bocconi University / Director, Bocconi University’s Institute for European Policy Making / Advisor, European Parliament

13:00 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, September 17, 2024

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at InterContinental Berlin

Day 2: Monday, April 29, 2024

09:00 – 09:15                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:15 – 09:45                   SESSION ONE – Critical changes in the global long steel markets

- Long products market outlook

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group

09:45 – 10:40                  SESSION TWO – Macroeconomic overview

Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX Research, Commerzbank AG

10:40 – 11:10                     Networking break

11:10 – 12:30                    SESSION THREE – Critical changes in the global long steel markets

- Chinese steel market outlook

Yuan Wenjiong, Chairman, Dao Fortune

- Indian steel market outlook

Somanath Tripathy, Executive Director(Materials Management), Rourkela Steel Plant, Steel Authority of India Limited

- Ukrainian economy and steel industry: current situation and outlook

• Current situation in Ukraine steel industry: production, capacities, shifts in trade
• Logistics and ports
• Redirection of trade flows
• Metinvest’s strategy under current conditions
• Prospects for Ukraine’s exports and imports

Roman Perepelytsia, Head of Strategy & Business Development, Metinvest Holding

12:30 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, April 30, 2024

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the global long products market has been slowing down in general, which is putting pressure on producers. He added that demand for reinforcing bars and wire rods remains very weak and there is strong pressure on prices from the new exporters who are in the market with very aggressive offers and who are not subject to antidumping or countervailing duty measures so far.

The IREPAS chairman said protectionism still prevails as the EU has extended its safeguard measures for another year, which is clear proof that world trade is no longer as it was defined by the Uruguay Round and will continue with its current protectionist structure, which will exert pressure on developing countries. He also added that the CBAM in the EU will replace the current safeguard measures in the region within 12 months.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Situation in China exerts huge impact on global market

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, stated that construction activities in China were slowing down, while steel production remained at high levels despite government restrictions, which has increased the demand for iron ore in the country. The high levels of steel production in China lead to an increase in its exports, negatively impacting the global market. He added that steel production in the country is expected to be cut during the winter season, which may provide a bright spot for the global market going forward, especially for Turkey which is struggling to compete with China’s competitive prices. Noting that the Chinese economy has been struggling for a while, Björkman said that the recent monetary policy easing and stimulus measures in the country to boost the real estate and steel industries will not be enough to boost demand and prices in China.

Looking at Turkey, commenting that domestic production rates are slower than last year due to difficulties such as the high inflation and the hike in interest rates which Turkish mills are facing, he noted that the industry continues to generate demand. However, the production costs from energy are expected to decline, which would positively impact steel production rates.

Focusing on scrap, noting that the US, which still outperforms the rest of the world in economic and business terms, keeps generating decent scrap volumes, while the EU will continue to generate low volumes of scrap, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee stated that the rising volumes of ex-US scrap supply to Asia were supported by lower container freight rates.

Traders at IREPAS: EU may adjust quotas amid higher long product imports

F. D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, stated that the situation has changed dramatically in the EU steel market due to high interest rates, while investments in construction and consequently steel demand and prices have moved down considerably. Stressing that the EU protects its steel market with safeguard measures, he stated that increased long product imports do not carry as much risk as the surge in flat product imports. He said that the EU may tighten future quota allocations for ‘other countries’ as the long product exports of Egypt and Algeria into the region have increased. In addition, the chairman of the traders committee stated that the subsidies provided under “decarbonization targets” will continue to increase in the  EU, which evaluates the governmental support in the other countries as unfair.Continuing with China, he stated that Chinese steel mills have not reduced steel production in accordance with government restrictions, raising concerns for global suppliers, as China’s exports will increase if its production cannot be utilized domestically. Even though he said he does not believe that Chinese mills will cut production, he added that, if they do so, it will not affect scrap imports but will reduce iron ore demand as 90 percent of the country’s steel production is blast furnace-based.

Noting that the EU continues to put pressure on Russian products with sanctions, Baysal stated that Turkey’s rebar exports have decreased as the country cannot use sanctioned Russian billets to produce products for shipment overseas. Russian billet was at first used in the reconstruction of the earthquake-hit zone in southern Turkey, while now the region’s needs are supplied by domestic production. Noting that Turkey has lost most of its traditional steel export markets, the chairman of the traders committee said that the Turkish industry needs government support as the mills are facing the US Section 232 tariffs and the EU’s safeguard measures.

Producers at IREPAS: Longs market is slowing down amid weak demand 

Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, stated that the long steel market has been slowing down amid weak demand which is putting immense pressure on prices. He talked about the general situation in the market, pointing out that previous importers such as Egypt, the GCC and Algeria have now become exporters. Since these countries are not subject to protectionist measures for the time being, they are exporting anywhere they can, especially claiming the market share of Turkey, which is being squeezed by protectionism all over the place, he noted.

Focusing on the Turkish market, Mr. Cebecioglu said there are many unknowns for the future, while protectionism in particular is a big issue for Turkey whose exports are hindered by Canada, the EU and the US. “There are only a few markets left where there is demand and everybody is focusing on those markets,” the IREPAS chairman said. Regarding the Turkish government’s change of monetary policy and starting to raise interest rates, he indicated that this gives hope to the market, though he went on to say that the local market is doing alright, but this will depend on whether the government will continue to increase interest rates.

With Turkey facing some difficulties such as the energy crisis, high production costs and inflation, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that electricity prices are a major factor for Turkish mills and, compared to oil and gas-rich countries, competing has become impossible for Turkey. Replying to a question about possible steps by the government to support the Turkish steel industry, the producers committee chairman pointed out that, under today’s economic conditions, subsidization also leads to another problem, namely, countervailing measures.

Commenting on the longs and semi-finished imports from the ASEAN region, Cebecioğlu said that ASEAN-based mills have been exporting all around the world including to destinations such as Central America, the EU and South America, adding that, together with the newcomers, they have taken all of Turkey’s market shares.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Swissôtel The Bosphorus

Day 2: Monday, September 18, 2023

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:30 – 11:30                    SESSION ONE: Critical changes in the global long steel markets

- Keynote speech:

• Figures and comments from WTO report
• Illicit nature of EU’s decarbonization subsidies
• How protectionism has evolved
• Chinese steel industry’s restructuring and opening up to global markets
• New threat: Circumvention
• Turkish steel industry: Standstill period
• Threats from US

Ugur Dalbeler, CEO, Colakoglu Metalurji / Deputy Chairman, Turkish Steel Exporters’ Association / The Board Member, World Steel Association

- Long products market outlook

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group 

- GCC market outlook

• The announced projects in KSA – when will they start and how it will change the market
• Exports from GCC
• Overall potential longs demand supply balance in GCC

Sunil Kumar, Chief Marketing Officer, Jindal Shadeed Iron and Steel

- Chinese steel market outlook

• Expectations in Chinese steel market

Huseyin Ocakci, Assistant General Manager, CIEC

11:30 – 11:50                     Networking break

11:50 – 12:45                     SESSION TWO: World economy in short, medium and long run

- Keynote Speaker: Prof. Dr. Ozgur Demirtas, Chair Professor of Finance, Sabanci University

12:45 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

19:00 – 24:00                  Gala dinner at Divan Kuruçeşme

Day 3: Tuesday, September 19, 2023

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee