The weighted-average dumping margins stand at

• 74.35-94.73 percent for Brazil,
• 4.06 percent for Indonesia,
• 20.11 percent for Mexico,
• 369.10 percent for Moldova
• 11.40 percent for Trinidad and Tobago,

while Brazil is also subject to 2.76-6.74 percent countervailing duty.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings

• 7213.91.3000,
• 7213.91.3010,
• 7213.91.3011,
• 7213.91.3015,
• 7213.91.3020,
• 7213.91.3090,
• 7213.91.3091,
• 7213.91.3092,
• 7213.91.3093,
• 7213.91.4500,
• 7213.91.4510,
• 7213.91.4590,
• 7213.91.6000,
• 7213.91.6010,
• 7213.91.6090,
• 7213.99.0030,
• 7213.99.0031,
• 7213.99.0038,
• 7213.99.0090,
• 7227.20.0000,
• 7227.20.0010,
• 7227.20.0020,
• 7227.20.0030,
• 7227.20.0080,
• 7227.20.0090,
• 7227.20.0095,
• 7227.90.6010,
• 7227.90.6020,
• 7227.90.6050,
• 7227.90.6051,
• 7227.90.6053,
• 7227.90.6058,
• 7227.90.6059,
• 7227.90.6080,
• 7227.90.6085

of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS).

The product is imported through tariff item 7214.20.02 of the General Import and Export Taxes Law (TIGIE). The temporary antidumping duty for the product has stood at 35 percent since 2024. The review was requested by Mexican steel producers ArcelorMittal, Ternium, Deacero, and Grupo Simec.

Trump stated that the tariffs, which will apply to the products from trading partners with duty-free exemptions or tariff-rate quota deals, including Canada, Mexico, Australia, Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, the EU, Japan and the UK, will be effective as of March 12, 2025. However, a White House official subsequently stated that the tariffs will be effective as of March 4, 2025.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Fairmont Monte Carlo

Day 2: Monday, October 10, 2022

09:00 – 09:10                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:10 – 10:40                    SESSION ONE: Critical changes in global long steel markets – Long products, pig iron and EU

- Long products market outlook

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group 

- Pig iron market outlook

• Developments in ex-Brazil BPI prices, trade flow, geographical structure of customers caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Expectations/Reality
• The major opportunities and threats faced by Brazilian BPI suppliers lately
• Iron ore-pig iron correlation
• Medium-term prospects for global BPI suppliers ( in context of global recession, transition to the production of carbon neutral steel)
• Which region is expected to hold the highest market share in purchases? What will drive that?

João Paulo Fragoso, Pig Iron Export Manager, Kéntron Ltda

- The EU steel market amidst war, inflation and slashed economic outlook

• Possible impacts of rising energy costs on European mills.
• Demand forecast for the EU in the last quarter of 2022.
• Current sentiment regarding Germany’s energy policy amid risks of Russian supply cuts.
• Demand forecast for the main steel-using sectors, such as construction and automotive, for 2022 and 2023
• Evaluation of European steel mills’ progress with new production processes in view of the 2030 and 2050 deadlines

Alessandro Sciamarelli, Director of Economic Studies and Market Analysis, European Steel Association (EUROFER)

10:40 – 11:10                     Networking break

11:10 – 11:50                     SESSION TWO: Critical changes in global long steel markets: China, Egypt and North Africa

- Chinese steel market outlook

Huseyin Ocakci, Middle East General Manager, CIEC

- Steel Market Overview for Egypt and Outlook for North Africa

• Supply/demand balance in the rebar market of Egypt
• Current state and prospects of steel consumption
• Production costs and their effect on mills profitability, billet imports versus own steel production
• Egypt’s financial and payment issues and their impact on local and import trade
• North African steel market outlook

Ramy Saleh, Chief Business Development Officer, El Marakby Steel

11:50 – 12:30                    SESSION THREE: Macroeconomic overview

- The global economy between post-pandemic recovery and energy price recession

Daniel Gros, Member of the Board, Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)

12:30 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                  Cocktail Reception at Fairmont Monte Carlo

Day 3: Tuesday, October 11, 2022

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the war in Ukraine has changed sentiment in the global long steel products market as well as fundamentally altering the flow of raw materials and finished products almost overnight, adding that the market is currently distorted.

The IREPAS chairman said the situation has created many new opportunities, but also major imbalances. He went on to explain that lately some oversupply has been observed here and there in the global long steel products market and added that Russian ferrous materials have been trading at a steep discount to other suppliers, with fewer destinations available.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: A lot of challenges going forward, downside risks remain

Jens Björkman, chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, listed the factors affecting the steel and raw materials markets recently such as the pandemic, the semi-conductor shortage, the war in Ukraine, the shortages of raw materials and components, high inflation rates, monetary tightening and the impact of the zero-covid policy in China on growth, which have all contributed to a really shaky period, he noted. High inflationary pressure is also forcing the industry to slow down, while the idling of some plants is expected in the coming months at some steel-using producers, signaling negative developments in terms of demand. Mr. Björkman said that there are still pockets of supply shortages in the automotive sector, where production is not in line with demand, since, while demand is strong, production remains slow because of component shortages, and this in turn leads to a deficit in scrap generation. All of these factors indicate that there are a lot of challenges going forward, the committee chairman underlined.

“For the past year and a half, we have been trading at around $400s/mt. However, in the last two months we have seen price movements that we haven’t seen since 2008, amid trade distortion and the impact of the war on actual trade. We have seen $200/mt decreases because prices first increased by as much, though it is a short-term effect,” he said. The raw material suppliers committee indicated that it expects that the market will stay at these levels for a while as the current price levels are considered tradable, with a little downside risk amid the oversupply of scrap.

Looking at the EU, Mr. Björkman said that the region is under pressure from energy costs, while there are also a lot of investment activities in the EU, either to shift production to electric arc furnaces from blast furnaces and in greenfield investments for green steel. He went on to say that building new electric arc furnaces is also going on in North America and Turkey, and these markets which are undergoing backward integration will need to secure raw materials.

Regarding the financing of the trading of scrap and other raw materials, the chairman of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee indicated that financing has been under pressure in the recent period when prices have been very strong, and insurance companies have not been willing to take added risks. He further stated that, with commodity prices doubling, companies have not been able to insure trade goods, while the banking system has become very sensitive in relation to sanctions and is more hesitant as regards the metals trade.

Commenting on the pig iron shortage, Björkman said that the shortage remains but pointed out that India has introduced an export duty on pig iron and that demand has slowed down in China due to its zero-covid policy, while at the moment the effect of the pig iron shortage on scrap prices has eased. He added that India has also imposed export duty on iron ore, but, since India’s iron ore exports are not significant, this will not have a massive effect on iron ore availability in export markets, although it will support domestic supply in the country.

Traders at IREPAS: Globalization has taken a big hit, things will never be the same

F. D. Baysal, chairman of the traders committee, said that regionalization, in other words protectionism, started with the Trump era in the US, followed by the EU decision to impose steel quotas. Later, this movement continued in a new dimension with Covid when producers realized that they should have inventories ready because of possible unforeseen interruptions, and also the supply chain issues which started with the pandemic escalated with ports being congested and many products arriving at the same time, he noted. “Ukraine was really a major addition to these problems and took the whole thing to another level, with EU manufacturers depending on Russian and Ukrainian supplies for their production. Globalization has taken a big hit and things will never be the same,” Mr. Baysal said.

Commenting on the effects of the war, the traders committee chairman said that initially in the first two months everybody panicked and that is why prices were jacked up, but later, especially after Russian steel products and billet started to reach markets that do not recognize the sanctions, the rise in prices eased. “I think sanctions will increase, but not before the year-end. Circumventing US measures is not possible as there are serious precautions, and it is the same for EU measures as well. However, payments are facilitated through intermediary countries like Switzerland and Dubai,” he stated. Baysal went on to say that unevenly applied sanctions create certain advantages for the countries which do not recognize the sanctions. “I don’t think there is an absolute winner, but countries that don’t recognize the sanctions have the upper hand, though for a short time,” he added.

“Higher freight rates and congestion, especially in the US, is a significant factor in higher steel prices. Congestion will ease slowly. It may take six months to a year and freight rates really have to ease as well. Container prices have doubled, even quadrupled. It is not sustainable. Container lines deliberately pulled old containers out of circulation, causing shortages. Others will come in and produce containers. The situation will change soon. There will also be more ships being built and that will change the whole equation, but it will take time, so higher prices are here to stay,” he explained regarding freight costs.

Producers at IREPAS: Outlook is positive, good days are ahead

Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, mentioned two major problems facing the long steel market, mainly the war in Ukraine and China’s zero-covid policy, adding that the problem in China will probably be resolved quicker than the war in Ukraine, giving breathing space for all. He said that the war had shifted all fundamentals: the supply-demand balance has been broken, supply chains disrupted, prices have increased, there was panic buying in the EU and some countries bought more than they needed.

Talking about certain countries in particular, Mr. Cebecioglu said that peace talks are in progress in Yemen, one of the top three export markets for Turkey. If they bring results, demand will pick up in this market, while in the Philippines, after the formation of the new cabinet, things are expected to be much better. Looking at the Middle East, the UAE produces more than it consumes, so it exports to many countries. In the GCC region, countries that used to be importers have now become exporters, such as Oman which is exporting to the EU in good quantities. When it comes to Turkey, he underlined that it exports to many countries and the war “gave some small chance to Turkey as it is the only alternative” in the absence of Russia and Ukraine. Although exports to Southeast Asia have not been possible for Turkey this year because of China’s presence there, Turkey got the opportunity to replace the supply from Ukraine and Russia, though it was also negatively affected itself, since these two countries are major suppliers. He also pointed out that, with the EU redistributing the quotas of Russia and Belarus to other countries, Turkey’s volumes for the EU have increased.

Commenting on whether Turkey is becoming less competitive in the face of Section 232 measures being replaced with quotas for the EU, the UK and Japan, the IREPAS chairman explained that the US has always been a good market for Turkey, though it had not been possible to sell to this market for the last couple of months as prices were so high at around $900/mt, “but today it is quite possible and deals have already been made with the US. These countries are not an obstacle for us. Selling to the US is always about pricing,” he added. As for the current situation regarding Turkey’s long steel exports, Cebecioglu said that, as the local markets slowed down in most countries, along with increasing prices, Turkish suppliers have a hard time foreseeing the future. He explained that Israel, one of the top three export markets for Turkish long products, has not bought anything for more than a month or so, but now they are coming back to the market, the same as Yemen. “We are in the clear, I think. In the coming weeks, things will be alright,” he affirmed.

Regarding freight rates and shipping costs, the producers committee chairman indicated that freight rates have more than doubled and vessels are waiting a minimum of three to four weeks at ports, resulting in “a huge effect on the steel trade using bulk vessels. When you look at the Baltic Dry Index, it seems more or less the same as last year but China’s Covid restrictions have blocked many ships out of business, creating a big problem, and I don’t know how soon this can be resolved,” he added.

Demand in the global long steel products market has continued to increase recently, and particularly demand in China and developed economies continues to push the market up. At the same time, international supply has tightened even further. Most mills are offering a few months ahead, thereby contributing to upward movement of prices. There are imbalances in rebar supply-demand, but it looks like customers are resigned to accepting the continuing price increases. The spreads on production have increased overall.

Strong demand and short supply in EU, construction companies squeezed by high prices

Demand in the EU remains strong, but the market is short of steel. Construction companies have tried to push cut and benders down on price by holding back orders but are now with their backs to the wall and have to place orders at much higher prices compared to their budgets. Most European cut and benders hold very toxic order books, with sales being approximately €200-300 per metric ton below replacement costs. EU mills could easily increase prices significantly as there is no available alternative for benders. Imports are not competitive, and quotas have been fully used up. Rebar prices compared to HRC prices are completely out of line.

Prices at record highs in US, domestic producers in control, credit an issue for customers

The North American market is also short of steel. In the US, demand is way up, but to ensure supply is far more difficult. The order books of all domestic mills are full, with order deliveries extending up to four to eight weeks. Imports are even harder to ship, as international mills are even busier. Besides, shipping is a big challenge, with more delays at double or triple the costs. Prices are at historic highs, making credit decisions even harder. Almost all customers have maxed out their credit limits with double the prices on most items. In short, the situation is most advantageous to domestic producers who are working at near full capacity, but traders have difficulty in supplying and/or financing the growing demand. Inflation in most commodities is around the corner. While both the US and the EU are short of steel and still have their protectionist measures in place, it seems that this situation will continue for a while yet.

Chinese production surges, its semis imports provide boost for global prices

China continues to roar ahead, now surpassing three million metric tons of liquid steel production per day. Despite the surge in Chinese steel production in the first and second quarters, China keeps importing semi-finished material, which has pushed up prices in the global market.  At the end of April, China announced the cancellation of the tax rebates on exports and, as a result, it most probably will not be exporting in the near future. This will open new opportunities for other market players like Turkey to increase their exports. Such recent decisions in China should result in pressure pushing prices up even more.

Iron ore prices rising, Asian market back to pre-Covid levels except for India

Iron ore prices are heading higher and the Asian market is fully back to pre-Covid levels, except for India whose steel output and scrap imports are expected to be negatively impacted.

Turkey remains an exception to the positive global longs demand situation

Demand for long steel products globally is good except in Turkey due to the high interest rates there. However, highest-ever prices are being experienced in the flat steel segment worldwide.

Demand increases even further in Latin America

Latin America is no exception in the global market. Supply is tightening and demand is increasing even further. Brazil is deciding to export less due to domestic demand. With further improvements in the vaccination process in Latin America, an increase is also expected in the demand scenario, which is already at a good level. Domestic sales continue to improve in the region, with higher volumes compared to the pre-pandemic period.

Lead times extended, entire supply chain is earning profits

Lead times are long in the market and the entire supply chain is earning profits. Disrupted supply chains and low stocks create pockets of demand in different areas of the world, which keep driving the market up. Stimulus programs also help increase demand. Although there has been news of more capacities coming back on stream, it seems the current situation will continue for the rest of the year.

Vaccinations and summer season to support return to normal, boosting demand

The global business environment is getting better with the increased distribution of vaccines, especially where they have been administered at rates exceeding 30 percent. Vaccinations and the summer season will help most countries resume a normal form of life, which in turn would support demand.

Credit insurance becomes an issue for buyers as prices continue to rise

Shipping is still the biggest challenge. Besides shipping, credit insurance is decreasing in volume as prices go higher. So far, steel mill customers have been able to find ways to circumvent this, but it remains an issue for the future. Another issue is that lead times are shrinking in the US market for ‘nice orders’. On the other hand, geopolitical winds may cause changes in the landscape.

Competition is healthy, outlook for next quarter is very good

Competition in the market is healthy but demand is sufficient for everyone. Accordingly, there is no concern about competition in general. The current status of the market is perfect to proceed with a very good outlook for the next quarter.

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Lead times are longer than ever in the global long steel products market and there is still strong demand, encouraging mills to continue increasing their prices. The situation has certainly become better from the producers’ point of view. They are all making money and their lead times are elongated.

Shortages of material keeps prices and margins high

It was somewhat surprising to see that the steel output outside China had not increased during the first two months of the year compared to the same period last year, despite the increases reported in India, South Korea, Turkey and Brazil. Outputs in the US, Japan, Russia, Germany, Taiwan and France were all lower year on year. That means there is still a shortage of material, which keeps prices and margins high. Meanwhile, output in China increased by 13 percent year on year, though it seems China will continue consuming at similar rates compared to last year.

Strong demand also supports price rises across the world

There are still shortages for many products in the global market, which are exacerbated by the disruptions in logistical and shipping chains. Customers are buying less than what they need, but these local shortages keep pushing the markets up. Prices keep on climbing in most areas across the world as demand is strong.

EU longs mills enjoy good order books, price increases to gain momentum

The long steel products market in the EU is very stable and EU mills are enjoying good order books. The reduced number of offers and stronger seasonal demand will speed up price increases. The hand-to-mouth buying mood of EU clients is good for local mills as they can adjust their prices instantly depending on the cost and sales situation. The termination of safeguard measures in the EU on July 1 – if it were to happen – would most probably not create a flood of imports under the current circumstances.

US mills enjoy high margins and high capacity utilizations, importers still struggle

On the other hand, US domestic mills are enjoying very high margins with high capacity utilizations and the ability to take any business from imports at will. The situation has become even worse for importers in the US. Most supplying mills are booked full. The availability of products is three to four months for flat rolled products and a minimum of two months for long steel products. In addition, the availability of vessels is even worse, making shipping more difficult. Prices for all commodities are high and now shipping costs are hitting an all-time high. With all these factors, importers are finding it even more difficult to make projections for future business. It is not clear how long all this will last.

China keeps importing, its billet buying gives global market additional strength

China seems to be happy with its situation and is not interested in increasing exports, but instead keeps importing. Their new five-year plan promises considerable public spending on many projects. China’s buying of billets gives the global market additional strength.

Hopes rise amid vaccinations, stimuli, US infrastructure bill and low Chinese exports

Although we are in the third wave of the pandemic, vaccinations are boosting hopes and the positive mood is helping demand to stay strong. There is an expectation that post-pandemic government stimulus programs will be hitting consumer products and construction markets soon. In addition, the expected US infrastructure bill and China’s timid export behaviour are the main positives for the second and third quarters of the year. It seems the current prices will hold for the next three months and that reductions will be gradual rather than sudden.

Competition mainly seen among buyers, not suppliers

Tight availability from most exporting countries and companies is affecting the level of competition in most markets. On a regional level, competition is very limited due to long lead times, but it is still healthy. From a global perspective, there is very little competition as transportation costs are skyrocketing. The only competition that exists today is the competition among buyers.

Market is generally stable, outlook is very good and satisfactory

Even though there may be some fluctuations, the current status of the market is generally stable. Most market players have convinced themselves that Covid-19 is now in the past tense. Whether we are in for lots of unpleasant surprises is unknown. The second quarter should be better than the first quarter. Accordingly, the outlook of the market is very good and satisfactory.

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The global long steel products market is becoming even more regionalized. All the safeguard measures, tariffs and antidumping and countervailing cases are reducing the global exchange of products more and more. The Covid-19 pandemic gives producers in certain markets the pretext to lobby their governments with even more arguments to get their domestic markets protected for no reason, but politicians just go along and accept this constant pressure as the public is not really focused on such ‘minor’ issues nowadays.

China’s imports start to slacken, it could eventually revert to being a net exporter

China has lately been reducing its purchases of pig iron, HBI, slabs and billets. However, no major change is expected in China at least until after the Chinese New Year holidays. That said, the margins in the Chinese domestic markets have been reduced and expectations are that China will shift from being a net importer to being a net exporter during the next four months.

Possible lifting of China’s scrap import ban could strongly impact global scrap prices

There are also reports that Beijing will allow the import of ferrous scrap with fewer restrictions. The last time China was a significant player in the global ferrous scrap market, it purchased about 14 million metric tons in a single year. Of course, China is a much larger producer, with more EAF-based production now. In the event of China lifting its scrap import prohibition, global scrap prices could increase significantly in view of the large EAF-based capacity the country has recently built up.

2021 will hopefully be a recovery year

On the other hand, next year will be a recovery year globally after all what we have been through in 2020.Accordingly, demand is expected to be relatively good. Of course, the EU and US producers are enjoying full protection, while, as far as Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Iran and Brazil are concerned, all depends on China.

Some negative signs in the US

In the US, the market situation is worse. Demand is relatively unchanged, though it has been coming under new pressure from Covid-19. On the other hand, the US mills are constantly adding capacity which is not fully utilized, and so supply is increasing. Imports have thin margins, if any.  Domestic scrap prices have moved up again, for no solid reason, which means they will probably be forced down again this winter. Now that Biden is elected as President, there is hope for eventual withdrawal of Section 232 safeguard measures.

Post-Brexit quota reductions announced by EU

The post-Brexit quota reductions have been announced by the EU, and the ‘global’ and ‘international’ volumes seem to have decreased slightly.

Prices in US and EU improve, many countries able to compete with Chinese in Asia

Prices in the EU and US markets have been improving. Despite the recent slowdown, China is still a net importer and does not pose a real threat to exporters in the rest of the world. Even better news is that exporters in countries like Russia, South Korea, Vietnam, India, Brazil and Turkey can compete with the Chinese exporters in Asian markets. However, there is a strong caveat: China has increased its production to over 1 billion. As a result, the world market will be under pressure when its GDP slows down over the winter months.

Competition levels decline worldwide, except in US

The level of competition in the global market is getting lower and lower due to more and more market protections, and competition can be described as relatively slack with the exception of the US market where it is still high.

Global market situation and outlook stable, except for US

The current status of the market can be described as stable, yet again with the exception of the US market which seems to be unstable. The outlook for the next quarter is mostly satisfactory, except for the US market at present.

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At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the Covid-19 pandemic has moved in a wave from Asia to America through Europe and the Middle East and has certainly worsened the market situation. He added that there has been a reduction in both supply and demand around the world, except in China where output keeps growing, and that demand in the global long steel products market is indeed not as bad as the newspapers and media outlets report.

IREPAS chairman also added that the very strong quarter seen in China and the current outlook supported by the country’s net importation of steel products have been driving the rebound. He said almost the whole market is driven by daily news and signals from China nowadays, adding that after a poor spring characterized by the idling of production capacities due to the coronavirus pandemic, we are currently in a period of recovery. But the Chairman also warned that with the ongoing political uncertainties and new threats from many corners around the globe, the overall market situation is becoming cloudy and more uncertain.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Main savior was Chinese demand

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, stated that, with the start of the pandemic, prices, demand and scrap collection crashed, noting that scrap collection halted dramatically all over the world but that in some regions the steel industries were hugely affected.

The committee chairman said that, for example, in the northern EU the lockdown was less dramatic than in the southern EU, and so some raw material businesses shifted their focus to northern EU scrap-based mills. He pointed out that, once the initial effect faded, scrap prices were fairly stable from April. Looking at the summer months, Mr. Björkman said that most regions were recovering fairly quickly. He recalled that scrap prices were slightly under $300/mt in the pre-pandemic period, went down to around $220/mt, and are now back at levels similar to those before the pandemic, underlining that the main savior was China’s extreme demand for raw materials and semi-finished steel, which they imported from many regions of the world. During this period, the weakening of the US dollar also resulted in scrap prices going upwards, he noted.

Commenting on the possible impacts of the outcome of the US presidential election on the scrap markets, the raw material suppliers committee chairman said that what is important for the scrap market is investments in new melting furnaces and these capacity growth projects cannot depend on a president’s term of office. So in the long run, he said he does not expect the election to affect the steel industry, though there may be some differences in how to conduct trade.

On China becoming a net importer, Mr. Björkman said that this means China will probably have less trade frictions with the US when it comes to steel, while he sees a build-up of steel capacities outside China, namely in ASEAN countries, as being more problematic.

Regarding the outlook, while admitting that there is a lot of uncertainty about the continuation of lockdowns or possible new lockdowns, Björkman said that he is a little bit more optimistic for the demand side. The committee chairman stated that, after the initial phase of shock due to the pandemic, many have been surprised regarding the positive aspects. He added that some companies issued warnings regarding negative results, but business turned out to be better than expected in many cases, though some are still struggling.

Traders at IREPAS: Prices increase amid regional trade flow interruptions

Wilhelm Alff and F.D. Baysal, co-chairmen of the traders committee, informed the participants about the market developments during the last six months. Mr. Baysal said that market conditions in the US are stable, improving after the big shock caused by the pandemic, while capacity utilization rates are still way behind 2019 levels. He pointed out that, compared to early September last year, capacity utilization rates are still 15 percentage points lower. Regarding the construction sector, he said that the residential segment showed an improvement, though the non-residential segment is still down with little prospects of a recovery. He also said that in September prices finally saw an increase in all categories.

Mr. Baysal said that there will not be many changes regarding trade measures depending on the US election results. He said he believed that if Trump wins the US will continue filing a maximum number of AD and CVD investigations until no competition is left and that Section 232 will continue and ,while Biden may be more sympathetic to free trade, Section 232 will still remain in force if Biden wins.

Baysal also added that, for non-residential construction in the US, there will be some fundamental changes and some are already in progress. For example, as people are working from home and companies will occupy less office space, he expects a major stagnation in this market. He also expects less demand for commercial buildings.

As regards Central and South America, Baysal said that these countries are on the verge of a slow improvement in both demand and supply. Some countries such as Mexico and Brazil were hit hard by the pandemic. However, both of these countries including Argentina are exempt from Section 232, and so their supply will increase with demand coming from the US. Nevertheless, he added that he does not foresee a big improvement in terms of domestic demand in 2020.

Commenting on Europe, Wilhelm Alff said that in Germany construction continued uninterruptedly, with demand for steel being even higher than normal, as many construction sites speeded up projects worrying that they might have to shut down altogether. On the other hand, in countries such as Spain, France, Italy and Poland, demand decreased as trade flows were interrupted and consumption decreased by 10-25 percent in these areas. He noted that, after declining at the beginning of the pandemic, scrap prices have increased by $90/mt up to the present because of the regional interruption of trade flows. Meanwhile, rebar prices in the EU have increased by €60 compared to the beginning of the pandemic.

Regarding EU quotas, Alff gave some background information on the changes in EU safeguard measures, indicating that the quarterly allocation which came into force as of July 1 is an advantage, because this way the market is not flooded with all the material arriving at the same time. He said that the safeguard measures have already led to a drastic reduction in imports, and pointed out that in 2019 steel imports into the EU totaled 1.8 million mt, while in the first half of the current year total steel imports came to less than 400,000 mt.

Producers at IREPAS: Global long steel demand more or less same as before pandemic

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also of the producers committee at the virtual event, said that the pandemic did of course worsen the market situation, reducing demand, while remarking that China has been the driving force behind the whole market and has no intention to export. He indicated that the situation in the global long products market is now unchanged compared to the pre-pandemic period; the market is stable and demand is more or less the same as it was before. Regional markets are performing well, with demand returning and EU-based cut-and-benders are quite busy. Looking at North America, prices in the US finally moved up on the back of higher raw material prices. The IREPAS chairman stated that the upward trend of scrap prices has already started slowing down, with a downward correction observed these current days, adding that producers prefer billet unless a strong spread appears between billet and scrap prices.

Commenting on whether the recent increase in Turkish rebar cargoes to the US will continue, the chairman of the producers committee said, “New shipments were booked in the aftermath of the Section 232 duty rate going back to 25 percent; that is why it looks like there is a surge. The truth is that Turkey will not be able to reach the level of exports it had prior to Section 232. When the duty rate was 50 percent, Turkey was replaced by domestic producers and other countries such as Spain, Italy and Portugal. It is not easy to recover the market shares in the US lost to other countries, especially while Turkey is still subject to AD and CVD measures.”

Mr. Cebecioğlu said that the increase in Turkey’s domestic steel consumption may be the result of the reduction in interest rates, which boosted demand for steel, providing support for the domestic market. He added, however, that he has doubts about whether this growth will persist.