At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that demand in the global long steel products market continues to lag behind supply. He added that the situation was getting worse because of China’s aggressive export policy and that Chinese exporters would continue to be aggressive, which of course would drive other Asian exporters to be aggressive also.

The IREPAS chairman said the situation in the global long steel products market is deteriorating, adding that there is huge uncertainty on what the next couple of quarters will bring for the global long products market, where it seems the situation will be extremely difficult.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: General market mood hopeful for improvement

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the committee meeting findings regarding the general situation in the global steel and raw material markets, noting that the markets have been struggling this year compared to the past few years amid the worsening of economies due to high inflation and interest rates. However, he stated that the general mood is hopeful for a return to something slightly more forward-looking and optimistic.

Regarding Western countries, he stated that high interest rates and inflation have been putting pressure on scrap generation in the US and the EU, and added that the interest rates in the EU are expected to be cut during the spring. With the anticipated increase in scrap demand due to electric arc furnace investments especially in the US, Canada and Europe, Mr. Björkman noted that scrap flows will change significantly in the next 10 years, regionalizing scrap generation where scrap demand is high. In addition, he stated that steel producers have started to look for alternatives to scrap like pig iron, HBI and DRI to cover their needs for raw material. Indicating that scrap generation in Europe is down by 15-50 percent depending on the part of the region, Björkman said that, with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), European scrap suppliers will try to keep scrap volumes within the regional market, reducing scrap exports from the region especially to Turkey, which operates mostly with electric arc furnaces and has significant demand for scrap.

Looking at China, noting that the country’s economy was expected to rebound after the Chinese New Year holiday but that these expectations did not materialize, he stated that China’s economy is going through a period of normalization. Meanwhile, pointing out that before the recent rebound iron ore prices had fallen to $100/mt CFR in the first quarter this year from the higher-than-expected level last year of $120/mt CFR, he said that the factors contributing to the price drop included high iron ore inventories at Chinese ports, slow demand and lower steel production. He concluded by saying that the market in China is adjusting to the lack of recovery of demand after the Chinese New Year holiday, adding that he expects iron ore prices to remain at quite high levels.

Traders at IREPAS: Global demand to be supplied locally, market conditions lead to regionalization

F. D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, stated that there is demand globally but that it will be supplied locally, adding that ongoing trade tensions, global conflicts and political instability have changed trade routes, resulting in regionalization.

Looking at the other factors that lead to regionalization, Mr. Baysal expressed the view that the EU’s safeguard measures will be extended for another two years and that its quota volume adjustment will be minimal if any. Regarding the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, he stated that it will put pressure on other countries, especially on blast furnace-based producers.

Remarking that Turkey’s export markets have been limited due to the US safeguard measures, the EU quota restrictions and the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the chairman of the traders committee stated that there are still some export opportunities for the country, including Syria, Iraq, eastern Europe, Africa and possibly Yemen. In addition, noting that the shipping crisis in the Red Sea has affected freight rates and container shipments a lot more than bulk shipments, shipments had to be shifted from containers to bulk, leading to additional costs.

Looking at China, Baysal said that the low steel demand in the country amid cancelled infrastructure projects has resulted in an increase in the country’s exports, with China dominating the global market with its lower prices and higher quality of steel, leading the strong competition. He also cited the Chinese Metallurgical Industry Institute’s prediction for a 1.7 percent drop in China’s steel demand in 2024, after a 3.3 percent decline in 2023, while further noting that China’s steel export volume increased by 14 percent year on year in the first quarter, though the value of its steel exports during this period was down by 20 percent year on year.

Producers at IREPAS: Low demand and Chinese exports weigh heavily on global steel market

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, shared with participants the conclusions reached by producers regarding the current situation in the markets. He said that the GCC region is more optimistic in terms of business given the big infrastructure projects in the pipeline there, while market conditions in Egypt are getting better and better as the country’s currency issue has mostly been resolved, though the Suez Canal crisis remains a challenge. In some EU markets, the economy is picking up and inflation seems to be under control, while in others demand still remains quite low.

Commenting on the situation in China, the hot topic at the conference, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that Chinese exports will definitely affect the global market negatively and will reach high levels as they did back in 2015. However, this time the number of export markets is limited because of protectionism and Chinese exports will be more problematic in terms of competition. He went on to say that, apart from China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam are also exporting heavily and competing with each other. This will affect other suppliers and, as one of the biggest long steel exporters, Turkey is already feeling the effects, the chairman of the producers committee noted. Chinese exports are also taking a toll on the EU market, which is also struggling with very low demand especially in the northern part of the region.

Other exporters to the EU have to deal with quota measures as well as the Chinese competition. Cebecioğlu said the EU will most probably extend its quotas for another two years and, with new suppliers such as the GCC and North Africa, things will be tough this year before picking up and getting better next year.

Responding to a question regarding how Turkish mills managed to increase production in the first quarter of the current year, the committee chairman said that, in terms of sales, the first quarter this year was much better than the corresponding period last year. Turkish mills were able to sell considerable amounts to the EU and, with the quotas opening up, they had a window for exports. Commenting on the reconstruction works in Turkey’s southern region which was devastated by earthquakes last year, Cebecioğlu stated, “Construction activity has already started in the region, and it is mainly the mills in the region that are benefitting from all this. Since export activity is very low, this gives these mills a little bit of a break, and also funding should not be a problem as these projects are being financed by the government.”

As far as metallurgical sector is concerned, the export tax will be applicable to the products like steel slab, billet, most of the long and flat products, pig iron, coal and coke, HBI and iron ore.

The size of duties for the mentioned products to be exported outside of Russia and Eurasian Economic Union are tied to the ruble exchange rate and are as follows:

Export duty rate according to USD/RUB exchange rate

• 0 in case the exchage rate is less than 80
• 4%  in case the exchage rate is 80-85
• 4.5% in case the exchage rate is 85-90
• 5.5 % in case the exchage rate is 90-95
• 7% in case the exchage rate is 95 and above

For the cargoes declared for exports after October 1, 2023, the exchange rate monitoring period is from August 26 till September 25, and the latest publication results of estimated average exchange rates should be no later than September 27.

As a result, 15 percent export duties from India on major longs and flat steel products, as well as pig iron, have been lowered to zero, while the export duty of 45 percent on pellets has also been scrapped. The export duty on iron ore lumps and fines with less than 58 per cent Fe content has been reduced to zero, while that on iron ore with Fe content more than 58 percent has been reduced to 30 percent from 50 percent earlier. High export duties were imposed six months ago to help redirected some needed volumes to the local Indian market, and this led to a significant reduction in exports and the lower competitiveness of Indian mills, at a time when more Asian suppliers wanted to increase their export market share.

In other changes to Indian tariffs, an import duty of 2.5 percent has been imposed on anthracite, PCI, coking coal and ferronickel used by the steel industry and five percent duty on imported coke and semi-coke, from zero earlier.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Fairmont Monte Carlo

Day 2: Monday, October 10, 2022

09:00 – 09:10                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:10 – 10:40                    SESSION ONE: Critical changes in global long steel markets – Long products, pig iron and EU

- Long products market outlook

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group 

- Pig iron market outlook

• Developments in ex-Brazil BPI prices, trade flow, geographical structure of customers caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Expectations/Reality
• The major opportunities and threats faced by Brazilian BPI suppliers lately
• Iron ore-pig iron correlation
• Medium-term prospects for global BPI suppliers ( in context of global recession, transition to the production of carbon neutral steel)
• Which region is expected to hold the highest market share in purchases? What will drive that?

João Paulo Fragoso, Pig Iron Export Manager, Kéntron Ltda

- The EU steel market amidst war, inflation and slashed economic outlook

• Possible impacts of rising energy costs on European mills.
• Demand forecast for the EU in the last quarter of 2022.
• Current sentiment regarding Germany’s energy policy amid risks of Russian supply cuts.
• Demand forecast for the main steel-using sectors, such as construction and automotive, for 2022 and 2023
• Evaluation of European steel mills’ progress with new production processes in view of the 2030 and 2050 deadlines

Alessandro Sciamarelli, Director of Economic Studies and Market Analysis, European Steel Association (EUROFER)

10:40 – 11:10                     Networking break

11:10 – 11:50                     SESSION TWO: Critical changes in global long steel markets: China, Egypt and North Africa

- Chinese steel market outlook

Huseyin Ocakci, Middle East General Manager, CIEC

- Steel Market Overview for Egypt and Outlook for North Africa

• Supply/demand balance in the rebar market of Egypt
• Current state and prospects of steel consumption
• Production costs and their effect on mills profitability, billet imports versus own steel production
• Egypt’s financial and payment issues and their impact on local and import trade
• North African steel market outlook

Ramy Saleh, Chief Business Development Officer, El Marakby Steel

11:50 – 12:30                    SESSION THREE: Macroeconomic overview

- The global economy between post-pandemic recovery and energy price recession

Daniel Gros, Member of the Board, Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)

12:30 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                  Cocktail Reception at Fairmont Monte Carlo

Day 3: Tuesday, October 11, 2022

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

The Indian government reduced import duty on ferro-nickel, coking coal from 2.5 percent to nil and that on coke and semi-coke from 5 percent to nil to bring down cost of production of steel mills and thereby soften finished product prices.

On the other hand, the government hiked export duty on iron ore and concentrates to 50 percent and imposed a new export levy on pellets at 45 percent. New export duty of 15 percent has also been imposed on pig iron and spiegeleisen in pigs, blocks, or other primary formats; flat-rolled products of different kinds, including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, plated and coated; bars and rods; stainless steel.

The war in Ukraine has changed sentiment in the global long steel products market as well as fundamentally altering the flow of raw materials and finished products almost overnight. There is more demand than secure supply in the market. Before the war, the expectations were that demand would determine the direction of prices, contrary to 2021 when supply was the driving factor. Today, however, supply has definitely taken the lead again and the market is in fact distorted.

Sanctions on Russia to continue for some time to come

Hot rolled coil prices ex-China are lower than slab prices, which in turn are lower than prices of basic pig iron. We hear of a new set of sanctions every day, for different targets using different means, issued by different countries, besides which the payment side is totally confused. There are many different ways of approaching the sanctions. Disruptions of supplies of semi-finished and finished products have opened new opportunities for others, especially for Turkish mills who share the same geographical region. However, nobody has any clue how far this madness will go, but one thing is for sure: the sanctions on Russia will remain in place for some time to come.

Price imbalance emerges between Asia and rest of world, European prices the highest

The Western hemisphere has stable demand with short supply depending on the product. There is stable demand also in the Eastern hemisphere, but the strong presence of Chinese and Southeast Asian producers results in a price difference between these two regions. Consequently, there is a price imbalance between Asia and the rest of the world. The difference between Turkish origin reinforcing bar and wire rod prices and Chinese, Vietnamese or Malaysian origin reinforcing bar and wire rod prices is more than US$100 per ton. The price difference between the North American and the EU/UK markets is even greater. International markets are becoming more regional than ever. European steel prices are now the highest in the world. Asian and especially Chinese prices are substantially lower than anywhere else. The steel trade is changing direction from selling to Asia to buying from Asia.

New destinations sought for Russian raw materials and semi-finished products

Russian raw material and semi-finished products are searching for destinations that are willing to import and at new discounted prices. It seems that Russian finished products are not being exported yet at all.

Demand and prices increase in EU amid reduction of mills’ capacity utilization

EU mills are concerned how all these disruptions will impact their production and are not willing to make any long-term commitments. Sales from stocks on a daily basis are becoming fashionable and the market has no other option but to accept this situation. The reduction of capacity utilization rates and the fears of stoppages by some mills are resulting in higher demand from the market than usual, as construction companies want to secure material for their projects. Prices have increased significantly with the lack of import options supporting the upward movement. Brussels is not ready to lift its safeguard measures despite strong protests from downstream industry.

Supply and demand stable in the US

Demand in the US is the same and supply from domestic producers has not changed either. However, considering the fact that the mills are running at full capacity, it is fair to expect that any increase in demand will have to be compensated for by imports. Import restrictions and therefore prices from regular suppliers have increased dramatically due to the war in Ukraine. With this, the prices in the US are also on an upward trend, catching up with the rest of the world.

Lower capacity utilizations and shutdowns in EU make more scrap available for Turkey

Scrap exports from Russia and Ukraine are almost at a standstill. However, EU steel mills have refused to pay more for scrap and have reduced their capacity utilization rates. There have even been complete shutdowns in some cases, creating extra supply of scrap in the market for Turkish mills. As a result, the Turkish mills have compensated for the missing quantities from Russia and Ukraine by the extra availability of European scrap, which has helped them keep scrap prices under control while at the same time they are exporting extra volumes of steel to the EU market.

New opportunities but also imbalances created by absence of Ukraine and Russia

The sudden disappearance of two major steel supplying countries in the global market has suddenly changed the supply and demand balance in favour of suppliers in other countries. The spread between raw material to product has become much bigger than predicted at the beginning of the year. The situation certainly creates many new opportunities but also major imbalances.

Competition from Asian mills increases gradually

Competition in the market is very regionalized, except for some products suffering from the impact of the conflict. The traditional competition from CIS-based and European mills has disappeared. The new competition, which has been slowly appearing, is from Asian mills.

Some weeks needed for unstable market to find equilibrium, outlook still very uncertain

Scrap price increases will continue, but the war is a major negative factor for the market. It will take some weeks for the market to find its equilibrium. Under the current circumstances, the market can be described as fluctuating and unstable. The outlook is very uncertain as the fundamentals may change daily.

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The global long steel products market has entered a new and completely unprecedented situation as a result of the war in Ukraine. The current situation means one of the largest suppliers of many raw and semi-processed materials will be completely excluded from the market for an unforeseeable period of time, with the consequences being almost impossible to predict at the moment.

Supplies of raw materials and semis from northern Black Sea at standstill

There will certainly be difficulties which, in fact, have started already, with the supplies of raw material and semis from the northern shores of the Black Sea. The situation will definitely push prices up due to the reduction in shipments in general out of Russia and Ukraine, and the depth of the impact will be shaped by the extent of the measures against Russia and the duration of the conflict. We may see further shortages in energy supplies, which will increase costs further. The price increases for all steel products and the supply shortages will be greater and more serious than many people expected. There will be a long-term disruption of trade and shipments.

Will the steel industry have enough raw materials for April? No firm prices for anything

The steel industry does not know if it has enough raw materials to operate in April, nor does it know what the price will be for those raw materials that are available for purchase.  The steel industry is not quoting firm prices for anything, and any price mentioned would have been inconceivable before the last week of February. A significant part of commercial billet and slab has suddenly been put out of the global business. The CIS is a major part of this trade along with pig iron and iron ore pellets. We are currently going through a massive remapping of logic. Materials need to be covered from other sources in an already limited market. Conditions are extremely tight, which also shows in short-term pricing spikes.

Russian exporters hit by sanctions

Russian exporters have hit a brick wall in the Black Sea. There will be enormous problems with shipments whether westwards or southwards, as well as financial and logistical difficulties. Companies from the countries that have joined the sanctions will be making sure that their supply chains are not using material from the sanctioned countries. Ships that load cargoes at Russian ports will be subject to sanctions themselves: they may lose insurance and their cargoes will not be insured. Many customers will not take the risk of buying products of Russian origin.

Far East ports and China to remain best option for Russia’s exports

On the other hand, Russian mills are expected to maintain production but flows of steel will be from their Far East ports and by rail delivery to China.  Russian mills have the absolute lowest cost of production and by far the lowest marginal cost of producing one ton of steel. So, if they can ship and get paid, they will flood the Asian markets including the Indian subcontinent with increased quantities. This will affect the flows of everyone else in Asia and may not be welcome by the Chinese steel industry. China is the most stable steel market in the world today and it does not want instability.

China set to become dominant billet supplier to North Africa

China will probably become the dominant supplier of billets to North African markets, in competition with Turkish suppliers. The overall situation is bleak. The world is now very short of BF and DR pellets. The shortages of pig iron and HBI already existed.  For many users of such raw materials, Ukraine and Russia were the No. 1 or No. 2 supplier.

Scrap market in chaos, exporters delay new sales to compensate for previous losses

Scrap exporters sold at least 1.3 million metric tons of scrap to Turkey for March shipment and most of this tonnage is yet to be collected. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all markets are upside down and the cost of scrap in all regions is going up. At present, the demand is for April cargoes and sellers are busy trying to complete their old-priced tonnages for March. When the scrap market moves up further, the cost of collection also rises further, increasing losses for March, but this seems unavoidable. Accordingly, exporters are trying to delay their new sales for April as much as possible in order to compensate for the mentioned losses, making the current market situation even worse.

Price in US may have hit bottom

In the US market, prices had been softening until recently and have maybe hit bottom now. demand is strong, but domestic mills seem to satisfy most of the demand. Most international mills have stopped giving offers, so no new offers are available anyway. The holiday season is almost over. The only remaining holiday is Ramadan. Furthermore, we are almost at the end of the pandemic, unless another variant surprises us. Prices will go up in some places and prices could at the same time go down in others. Anyone who is not afraid of sanctions will be able to enjoy very cheap Russian and Belorussian origin raw materials and steel.

Not much competition in global longs market, severe competition for scrap

There is not much competition in the market. Prices will explode due to logistical problems and competition will be more and more regional. On the other hand, there is already severe competition among scrap importing countries to obtain scrap, and this is expected to continue. Winter conditions will be over by April, so scrap flows will be normalised. However, the loss of volumes from Russia and Ukraine will have to be compensated for somehow.

Market is currently unstable, outlook is extremely unpredictable

The current status of the market can be described as fluctuating and unstable. The outlook is also extremely unpredictable. Regardless of whether the steel industry does quite well, major questions will exist around increased inflation and possibly lower growth, perhaps stagflation.

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The global long steel products market is becoming even more regionalized. All the safeguard measures, tariffs and antidumping and countervailing cases are reducing the global exchange of products more and more. The Covid-19 pandemic gives producers in certain markets the pretext to lobby their governments with even more arguments to get their domestic markets protected for no reason, but politicians just go along and accept this constant pressure as the public is not really focused on such ‘minor’ issues nowadays.

China’s imports start to slacken, it could eventually revert to being a net exporter

China has lately been reducing its purchases of pig iron, HBI, slabs and billets. However, no major change is expected in China at least until after the Chinese New Year holidays. That said, the margins in the Chinese domestic markets have been reduced and expectations are that China will shift from being a net importer to being a net exporter during the next four months.

Possible lifting of China’s scrap import ban could strongly impact global scrap prices

There are also reports that Beijing will allow the import of ferrous scrap with fewer restrictions. The last time China was a significant player in the global ferrous scrap market, it purchased about 14 million metric tons in a single year. Of course, China is a much larger producer, with more EAF-based production now. In the event of China lifting its scrap import prohibition, global scrap prices could increase significantly in view of the large EAF-based capacity the country has recently built up.

2021 will hopefully be a recovery year

On the other hand, next year will be a recovery year globally after all what we have been through in 2020.Accordingly, demand is expected to be relatively good. Of course, the EU and US producers are enjoying full protection, while, as far as Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Iran and Brazil are concerned, all depends on China.

Some negative signs in the US

In the US, the market situation is worse. Demand is relatively unchanged, though it has been coming under new pressure from Covid-19. On the other hand, the US mills are constantly adding capacity which is not fully utilized, and so supply is increasing. Imports have thin margins, if any.  Domestic scrap prices have moved up again, for no solid reason, which means they will probably be forced down again this winter. Now that Biden is elected as President, there is hope for eventual withdrawal of Section 232 safeguard measures.

Post-Brexit quota reductions announced by EU

The post-Brexit quota reductions have been announced by the EU, and the ‘global’ and ‘international’ volumes seem to have decreased slightly.

Prices in US and EU improve, many countries able to compete with Chinese in Asia

Prices in the EU and US markets have been improving. Despite the recent slowdown, China is still a net importer and does not pose a real threat to exporters in the rest of the world. Even better news is that exporters in countries like Russia, South Korea, Vietnam, India, Brazil and Turkey can compete with the Chinese exporters in Asian markets. However, there is a strong caveat: China has increased its production to over 1 billion. As a result, the world market will be under pressure when its GDP slows down over the winter months.

Competition levels decline worldwide, except in US

The level of competition in the global market is getting lower and lower due to more and more market protections, and competition can be described as relatively slack with the exception of the US market where it is still high.

Global market situation and outlook stable, except for US

The current status of the market can be described as stable, yet again with the exception of the US market which seems to be unstable. The outlook for the next quarter is mostly satisfactory, except for the US market at present.

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There is still no clarity and no sign of economic recovery around the globe. Nevertheless, European and US production cuts at blast furnaces for extended periods have given much needed relief to the rest of the steel industry. The global long steel products market is picking up due to the production cuts, as anticipated. However, there may not be a considerable improvement in terms of the profit margins of steel producers. Current sales prices in Europe, the Middle East, North America and South America still provide inadequate margins for producers. Today, the main problem for steel producers is demand as customers are reluctant to increase their inventories due to lack of confidence in overall sentiment. The current state of the worldwide economy makes clients extremely cautious as regards every procurement or any larger restocking.

Regionalization continues, international playing field gets smaller

On the other hand, the global market is smaller than it used to be because of protectionist measures. As regionalization continues, the playing field is getting smaller for some suppliers who have been hit by high dumping margins. As such, there is no balance between supply and demand and therefore prices in the international markets are still poor.

Unhealthy situation with higher scrap prices not backed by long product demand

The other reason for the recent price increase is the increasing price of scrap, which is not healthy at all if it is not backed up by product demand. Availability in the supply chain has become thinner as manufacturing has strengthened and most regions have been positively surprised over scrap demand. The rebound in November along with production cuts at blast furnaces against the backdrop of the depressed flat steel market has boosted demand at scrap-based electric arc furnaces and thus has also raised demand for ferrous scrap.

Uncertainties may increase  

The elections in the UK in December may bring even more uncertainty depending on the outcome, while a simple tweet can also change things in a heartbeat.

EU producers squeezed by absence of North African outlet, but buffered by lack of imports

Stock levels in the EU are normal to low, and buyers are waiting for some more clarity to order to restock again. The lack of North Africa as a market is putting EU producers under pressure to find places to dispose material. As a result, the EU is becoming very competitive. On the other hand, the lack of imports into the EU market should give EU mills the chance to adjust their prices in line with increased scrap prices. Restocking may start during January and February if the scrap prices keep their vigorous levels.

China remains a force to be reckoned with, especially in Asia

China is now the major world influencer of prices of iron ore, coke, HBI, basic pig iron, slab and billet. China may still not be the major influencer in the markets for hot rolled steel sheets in coils, plates, reinforcing bars and wire rods outside of Asia, but it is certainly dominant in the Asian market. The rest of the world will have to come to terms with that fact in the current market.

China’s domestic focus and semis imports create opportunities

Thanks to good steel consumption in China, Chinese suppliers are not interested in increasing exports. As the prices of Chinese suppliers increase thanks to good demand in their domestic market, other exporters see opportunities to take over. Moreover, Chinese buying of semi-finished steel due to the winter season caps on carbon emissions has been adding steam to regions around China.

Some positive signs  

Destocking and less work in progress inventory in the US are leading to higher transaction prices, despite the political doom and gloom. Warm winter conditions along with low interest rates and liquidity in the global marketplace are among the other positive signs for the market.

Levels of competition still very high

The level of competition in the market is still very high. There is stiff competition for volumes region-wise. Nowadays, there are adequate volumes only in China. Certainly more capacity has to be idled to bring demand and supply into balance and to increase margins in the marketplace.

Scrap inventories depleted in many regions and need replenishing

As for ferrous scrap, the market seems to be playing catch up as inventories in many regions are depleted and need replenishing.

Market outlook to remain relatively stable for first quarter of new year

The market is generally stable in the last quarter of the year and the outlook for the first quarter of the new year is also relatively stable even though conditions are still challenging. As for scrap, the winter market seems to be fairly tight throughout.

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