There were 96 representatives from 36 different producers among the 302 registered delegates from a total of 41 different countries. There were also 75 registrations representing 43 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Ioannis Manessis, chairman of IREPAS, stated that the global steel industry is operating in an increasingly challenging environment characterized by geopolitical conflicts, shifting trade flows, higher costs and relatively weak demand. According to the IREPAS chairman, the deteriorating situations in the Black Sea and Iran are having a significant impact on steel markets and international trade. Damage to ports and vessels’ reluctance to sail have made trade in the Black Sea extremely difficult, while attacks on bulk carriers and oil tankers have also created significant challenges for trade in the Middle East.

Against this backdrop, energy prices, including oil, natural gas and coal prices, have increased, in some cases significantly. Manessis noted that these increases are raising costs for steel producers, scrap suppliers and shipping companies, affecting the entire steel value chain.

At the same time, the industry is facing an increasingly restrictive global trade environment. The IREPAS chairman highlighted the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its safeguard measures implemented after July 1, US tariffs, scrap trade restrictions in around 40 countries worldwide and other trade measures affecting steel markets. He also pointed to China’s recent efforts to prevent its steel industry from offering products at excessively low or loss-making prices, stating that these measures already appear to be having an impact on the market.

Meanwhile, higher interest rates are putting additional pressure on consumers as authorities seek to contain inflation. Manessis stated that, apart from demand related to the expansion of artificial intelligence data centers, global demand for steel products remains relatively weak.

According to the IREPAS chairman, demand is therefore not currently determining the direction of the market, with rising costs instead becoming the key factor. As a result, steel prices are increasing in almost all markets despite weak demand. Manessis added that, although the current environment remains difficult to navigate, higher prices are allowing trade to continue and creating opportunities for market participants.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Producers at IREPAS: Trade barriers and overcapacity are fragmenting global steel markets

Steel producers remain cautiously optimistic despite challenging international trade conditions, while energy and raw material costs are expected to continue putting pressure on mills at least through the end of the winter, according to Alex Gordienko, export director at Spain’s CELSA Group, speaking on behalf of the producers committee.

Mr. Gordienko said that regions face different challenges, with European producers particularly affected by energy-related issues. Nevertheless, producers continue to see underlying domestic demand and remain somewhat more optimistic than current market conditions might suggest.

India expected to remain focused on domestic market

Commenting on the rise in Indian steel demand and the decline in the country’s export activity, Gordienko pointed to significant infrastructure investments and rapidly growing construction demand, while India’s steel production capacity is also increasing. He said he expects India to remain primarily focused on its domestic market over the next five years.

Regarding Southeast Asian suppliers, Gordienko said they will remain competitive internationally, though increasingly selective about their target markets. Their presence is expected to remain significant in the MENA region, while access to the EU will be more difficult due to quota restrictions.

EU needs favorable investment conditions as well as trade protection

Turning to Europe, Gordienko said there is significant potential demand from housing, electricity generation, data centers and defense investments, as well as the replacement of aging infrastructure. However, bureaucratic barriers are preventing these needs from translating into actual construction and investment.

According to Gordienko, the EU has become increasingly effective at protecting its steel market, but less successful in creating economic conditions that make steel production and investment attractive. Safeguards and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) provide some protection, but cannot compensate for issues such as insufficient or expensive energy supply.

Overcapacity and trade barriers to fragment global markets

Addressing global overcapacity, Gordienko said governments increasingly want to preserve domestic steelmaking capacity even when mills struggle to generate profits, while new capacity continues to emerge in several regions.

He said he sees no realistic global mechanism capable of effectively regulating excess capacity. As trade barriers increase, surplus steel will have access to fewer export destinations, increasing the pressure on markets that remain open. At the same time, protected markets could experience temporary shortages and price increases despite substantial global excess capacity.

Gordienko said fragmentation is also changing the traditional steel market cycle. Instead of one broadly synchronized global cycle, individual regions are increasingly likely to follow their own cycles as trade barriers, domestic policies and local market conditions gain importance.

Looking ahead to 2027, he identified fragmentation as a key issue, encompassing overcapacity, Chinese exports and growing trade barriers, with market participants increasingly needing to focus on developments in their own domestic markets.

Traders at IREPAS: Trade barriers and freight risks make steel trade more regional

F.D. Baysal, chairman and CEO of SEBA Group of Companies and chairman of the traders committee, shared the committee’s assessment of current market conditions, highlighting weakening demand, regulatory pressures and rising geopolitical risks.

Mr. Baysal stated that steel trade is becoming more regional as tariffs, freight risks and additional import requirements complicate transactions. Presenting the findings of the IREPAS traders committee, Baysal said China had reduced steel production but continued to export large volumes. He stated that export licensing and VAT-related changes had altered the composition of its exports, with a greater share of long products. Continued weakness in China’s real estate sector has left surplus production seeking overseas markets, he added.

Freight risks complicate steel trade in Middle East

Baysal described freight conditions as volatile, stating that shipping from Asia to Europe has remained relatively soft, while finding vessels for shipments to and from the Middle East has become difficult. War-risk premiums and higher bunker costs have added to the challenges faced by traders.

Regarding trade in the GCC region, Baysal said decisions can no longer be based solely on the price of steel and its shipping cost. Traders must also consider insurance, changing transit times and uncertainty over whether cargoes will arrive as planned. He stated that he expects logistics to remain a significant issue. Baysal said geopolitical freight premiums are not necessarily permanent. What has changed more durably, in his view, is the need to account for geopolitical risks in every transaction. Shipping routes, additional premiums and the working capital tied up in delayed cargoes have become part of traders’ calculations.

High interest rates weigh on US steel demand

Baysal pointed out that higher interest rates are weighing on US commercial and residential construction and on demand for steel products used in those sectors. However, infrastructure, data centers, energy projects and manufacturing investment continue to consume steel. He noted that large infrastructure and data center projects are supplied mainly by domestic mills.

Against this background, Baysal said traders favor disciplined purchasing and low inventories. Back-to-back transactions are more attractive than speculative stockholding when financing is expensive and tariffs, quotas, freight and regional market conditions can change.

Capacity-demand gap and trade measures seen as interconnected risks

Although steel remains a cyclical industry, Baysal said its underlying trade structure has changed. Capacity growth, trade barriers and geopolitical risks have fragmented the market, requiring traders to identify opportunities in individual regions rather than rely on price differences alone.

Looking ahead to 2027, he described the gap between steel capacity and demand, and the trade measures that may result from it, as interconnected risks.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Rising costs and trade barriers put pressure on raw material flows

Jens Björkman from Stena Metal International and chairman of the raw material suppliers committee shared the committee’s assessments of current dynamics and difficulties in global raw material markets during a panel session.

Mr. Björkman stated that higher freight, energy and financing costs, together with potential restrictions on scrap exports, are putting pressure on the steelmaking raw material trade. Presenting the findings of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee, Björkman said coking coal prices had risen by around 60 percent within a few months. He also pointed to strong raw material demand in the US during the first part of 2026 and growth in India. In Europe, in contrast, high energy costs have added to the challenges facing the industry, he stated.

Low Rhine water levels disrupt European scrap and steel movements

Björkman said the low water levels of the River Rhine, comparable to those seen in 2018, have disrupted movements of scrap and steel in Europe. Some material has remained in inventories instead of reaching its destinations, causing business to be postponed. He described European steel capacity utilization of around 65 percent as unsustainable.

Regarding coking coal, Björkman said the summer price surge was driven particularly by conditions in China and had also lifted Australian prices. Chinese demand has since eased somewhat, he said. Although he cited an increase of around six percent in Indian production this year, he does not expect it to offset weaker Chinese demand. Björkman therefore sees a slightly negative outlook for coking coal prices in the coming months and said the earlier surge may prove temporary in the short term.

Trade disruptions affect scrap purchases in India and Pakistan

Turning to import scrap markets in India and Pakistan, Björkman said disruptions to trade flows have had a substantial effect on purchasing. Buyers who previously could purchase smaller quantities with shorter lead times have had to consider larger volumes and longer delivery periods. Higher freight and financing costs make those changes more difficult, he explained. He added that demand for European material has increased.

The chairman of the raw material suppliers committee expressed concern about proposed changes affecting EU shipments of ferrous and non-ferrous material to non-OECD countries. North Africa and South Asia are significant and consistent buyers of European material, he said. In his view, restrictions could affect both their ability to purchase scrap from the EU and recycling activity within Europe.

Financing raw material trade has also become more difficult throughout the supply chain, according to Björkman. Higher interest rates, freight costs and raw material prices are encouraging companies to keep lead times short, buy according to immediate requirements and avoid accumulating large inventories.

Scrap to remain principal raw material for EAF-based producers

On the future raw material mix for electric arc furnace-based producers, Björkman said scrap will remain the principal input. HBI and DRI can supplement scrap, but he does not expect them to replace it. Their cost is a constraint in many regions, while energy availability influences where they can be produced. Björkman also questioned whether Europe could depend on supplies from the GCC given regional and political uncertainties.

Trade barriers seen as key risk for scrap market in 2027

Björkman said Europe has sufficient scrap for its own steelmakers and has opposed adding further restrictions and administrative requirements to its export trade.

Asked about the risks facing the market in 2027, he identified increasing trade barriers as a particular concern for scrap suppliers. Björkman expects trade to become more regional, with European exporters facing additional requirements.

The supply and demand balance in the global long steel products market has become marginally worse for international business since June, although supply has started to react. Global crude steel production moved from an increase of 1.7 percent year on year in June to a decrease of 0.3 percent in July, with China’s crude steel output moving from an increase of 0.4 percent to a decrease of 3.6 percent in these respective months. However, global production in the January-July period was down only 0.6 percent year on year, which does not yet signal a meaningful rebalancing. The market situation in the coming period is extremely difficult to predict, particularly given the geopolitical developments affecting the Black Sea region and the Strait of Hormuz. International trade has become increasingly challenging. Demand remains generally subdued, while disruptions to supply and logistics are creating upward pressure on prices.

Energy costs rise significantly, overall environment increasingly inflationary

At the same time, energy costs have risen significantly. Natural gas prices in Europe and elsewhere remain at very high levels, with electricity prices following the same trend, while coal prices have also moved higher. Consequently, the overall environment has become increasingly inflationary. We, therefore, have an unusual combination of relatively weak demand and rising costs and supply-side pressures, which are creating considerable uncertainty and volatility in the international steel market.

China’s steel bar exports rise further, its real estate investments deteriorate

In the meantime, China’s real estate investments deteriorated from a decrease of 18.0 percent in the first half to a drop of 19.2 percent in the January-July period, with fixed-asset investments and infrastructure investments decreasing by bigger margins of 6.7 percent and 3.6 percent respectively in the January-July period, compared to respective declines of 5.7 percent and 2.4 percent in the first half. Steel exports from China in July remained above 10 million metric tons, with steel bar exports rising by 20.9 percent in July and by 12.3 percent in the January-July period. Together with the tighter EU and UK import quotas from July 1, this means a better balance inside protected markets but more displacement into the remaining open markets. The imbalance is being redistributed rather than resolved.

Higher costs begin to push EU prices upwards

Demand in the EU market remains weak, partly due to the summer season and the continued lack of activity in construction. A sudden increase in consumption is not currently foreseen, particularly as we move into the fourth quarter, which is traditionally a period of slowing activity. Nevertheless, sharply higher energy costs are now pushing mills’ prices upwards. Exceptionally low water levels on Europe’s major rivers have also increased transport costs for both mills and importers. Even in a weak demand environment, producers cannot continue absorbing these additional costs indefinitely. The current upward price movement is therefore mainly cost-driven rather than the result of any significant improvement in consumption.

US remains one of the clearer growth markets, but high interest rates still a major issue

The US is one of the clearer growth markets: domestic steel shipments increased by 5.3 percent in the first half of 2026, while steel demand is forecast to grow by 1.7 percent in the calendar year 2026, supported by infrastructure and technology-related investment. There is a gradual demand recovery in the US as well as strong infrastructure investment and continued AI investments. Meanwhile, imports are down 22 percent year-to-date. Supply in the US long steel market is moderately tight but has been moving toward a balance as of August. High interest rates are still a major issue for residential and commercial construction. However, rising domestic capacity and slowly recovering imports should gradually ease the supply pressure. Overall, the situation is better for US mills, but tougher for international suppliers. The US is going on its own path, at least until the results of the mid-term elections are announced. In the meantime, there are about 20 steel producers in the US announcing outages for September, October and November.

Global prices to remain driven by supply-side factors rather than by demand

From a pricing perspective, the main supportive factors are the prospect of reduced supply pressure from China, disruptions affecting trade in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, higher energy and production costs, and the increasingly restrictive trade measures being implemented in the US, the EU and the UK. Global production finally saw a slightly negative correction in July, indicating that mills are beginning to respond. In the EU, steel producers are announcing profits. Our expectation is that prices will remain under upward pressure during the next quarter driven primarily by the abovementioned factors rather than by a strong recovery in underlying demand.

Global steel demand foreseen to improve in 2027, but no broad recovery yet

On the demand side, the picture is less encouraging. Nevertheless, there is still meaningful demand in the Americas, while demand in most other regions appears broadly stable rather than deteriorating significantly. Looking at the global situation, India, Southeast Asia, Africa and select US construction segments offer the best opportunities for long steel products. According to market analysts, global steel demand is expected to improve further in 2027, supporting trade volumes and market confidence. These are positives for select markets and margins, but not yet evidence of a broad global demand recovery.

Ferrous scrap market still characterized by weakness

The ferrous scrap market is weak without much movement towards the upside as steel mills seek to avoid price hikes that would further constrict their margins.

Competition at reduced levels amid limited number of viable supply alternatives

Competition in the global long steel market is currently somewhat reduced, mainly because the number of competitive supply sources has become more limited. Trade restrictions, geopolitical disruptions, higher freight and energy costs, and difficulties in accessing certain markets have all reduced the number of viable supply alternatives.

Current market status very unstable, market highly sensitive to geopolitical developments

Under such circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as very unstable. The market will remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly in the Black Sea and the Middle East.

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The global long steel products market has entered a new and completely unprecedented situation as a result of the war in Ukraine. The current situation means one of the largest suppliers of many raw and semi-processed materials will be completely excluded from the market for an unforeseeable period of time, with the consequences being almost impossible to predict at the moment.

Supplies of raw materials and semis from northern Black Sea at standstill

There will certainly be difficulties which, in fact, have started already, with the supplies of raw material and semis from the northern shores of the Black Sea. The situation will definitely push prices up due to the reduction in shipments in general out of Russia and Ukraine, and the depth of the impact will be shaped by the extent of the measures against Russia and the duration of the conflict. We may see further shortages in energy supplies, which will increase costs further. The price increases for all steel products and the supply shortages will be greater and more serious than many people expected. There will be a long-term disruption of trade and shipments.

Will the steel industry have enough raw materials for April? No firm prices for anything

The steel industry does not know if it has enough raw materials to operate in April, nor does it know what the price will be for those raw materials that are available for purchase.  The steel industry is not quoting firm prices for anything, and any price mentioned would have been inconceivable before the last week of February. A significant part of commercial billet and slab has suddenly been put out of the global business. The CIS is a major part of this trade along with pig iron and iron ore pellets. We are currently going through a massive remapping of logic. Materials need to be covered from other sources in an already limited market. Conditions are extremely tight, which also shows in short-term pricing spikes.

Russian exporters hit by sanctions

Russian exporters have hit a brick wall in the Black Sea. There will be enormous problems with shipments whether westwards or southwards, as well as financial and logistical difficulties. Companies from the countries that have joined the sanctions will be making sure that their supply chains are not using material from the sanctioned countries. Ships that load cargoes at Russian ports will be subject to sanctions themselves: they may lose insurance and their cargoes will not be insured. Many customers will not take the risk of buying products of Russian origin.

Far East ports and China to remain best option for Russia’s exports

On the other hand, Russian mills are expected to maintain production but flows of steel will be from their Far East ports and by rail delivery to China.  Russian mills have the absolute lowest cost of production and by far the lowest marginal cost of producing one ton of steel. So, if they can ship and get paid, they will flood the Asian markets including the Indian subcontinent with increased quantities. This will affect the flows of everyone else in Asia and may not be welcome by the Chinese steel industry. China is the most stable steel market in the world today and it does not want instability.

China set to become dominant billet supplier to North Africa

China will probably become the dominant supplier of billets to North African markets, in competition with Turkish suppliers. The overall situation is bleak. The world is now very short of BF and DR pellets. The shortages of pig iron and HBI already existed.  For many users of such raw materials, Ukraine and Russia were the No. 1 or No. 2 supplier.

Scrap market in chaos, exporters delay new sales to compensate for previous losses

Scrap exporters sold at least 1.3 million metric tons of scrap to Turkey for March shipment and most of this tonnage is yet to be collected. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all markets are upside down and the cost of scrap in all regions is going up. At present, the demand is for April cargoes and sellers are busy trying to complete their old-priced tonnages for March. When the scrap market moves up further, the cost of collection also rises further, increasing losses for March, but this seems unavoidable. Accordingly, exporters are trying to delay their new sales for April as much as possible in order to compensate for the mentioned losses, making the current market situation even worse.

Price in US may have hit bottom

In the US market, prices had been softening until recently and have maybe hit bottom now. demand is strong, but domestic mills seem to satisfy most of the demand. Most international mills have stopped giving offers, so no new offers are available anyway. The holiday season is almost over. The only remaining holiday is Ramadan. Furthermore, we are almost at the end of the pandemic, unless another variant surprises us. Prices will go up in some places and prices could at the same time go down in others. Anyone who is not afraid of sanctions will be able to enjoy very cheap Russian and Belorussian origin raw materials and steel.

Not much competition in global longs market, severe competition for scrap

There is not much competition in the market. Prices will explode due to logistical problems and competition will be more and more regional. On the other hand, there is already severe competition among scrap importing countries to obtain scrap, and this is expected to continue. Winter conditions will be over by April, so scrap flows will be normalised. However, the loss of volumes from Russia and Ukraine will have to be compensated for somehow.

Market is currently unstable, outlook is extremely unpredictable

The current status of the market can be described as fluctuating and unstable. The outlook is also extremely unpredictable. Regardless of whether the steel industry does quite well, major questions will exist around increased inflation and possibly lower growth, perhaps stagflation.

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