There were 123 representatives from 49 different producers among the 406 registered delegates from a total of 56 different countries. There were also 79 registrations representing 41 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that demand is still very weak in the global longs market and the situation remains difficult as mills are cutting back on production and protectionist measures are continuing full speed ahead, while China and other countries in Asia are exporting a lot, putting pressure on prices.

The IREPAS chairman added that there is very severe competition in the market, and every producer is fighting with its last penny in order to keep operating.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Global trade conditions are “devastating” due to uncertainty

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, said that, in the recent period, global trade conditions have been extremely difficult, describing the situation as “devastating” amid the current uncertainty. Pointing out that trade barriers and uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on the market, particularly with the US tariffs forcing some countries to find alternative destinations, he added that this shift has created pressure on other markets, including Turkey. Regarding the protectionism in the market, he stated that there are rumors that the EU will impose some duties on Asian materials due to the huge inflows of cheaper steel from the region. Meanwhile, noting that China, which is the main exporter of cheap steel, has signaled plans to reduce steel production and exports in 2025 and 2026, albeit the actual outcome remains uncertain, he said that, in the longer term, larger investments in EAF-based production are expected, supported by stable electricity supply and growing domestic scrap availability. China has also announced a cut of about 90 million metric tons in its steel production in 2025.

Highlighting that the planned green transition in the steel industry is increasingly being questioned, with many investments being cancelled and projects being delayed, Mr. Björkman stated that the EU’s move toward electric furnace-based production has now been postponed by at least three to four years. He underlined that, if carbon emission trading in Europe and the related pricing system are fully implemented, emission reduction technologies will need to be installed more widely. However, he said that, instead of hydrogen-based DRI, natural gas could be used in the short term. In addition, the raw materials committee chairman said EU waste shipment regulations treating scrap as waste will create more bureaucracy, especially for non-OECD countries needing formal approvals to buy European scrap, while OECD trade remains unaffected. Regarding the concerns over domestic scrap oversupply, he stated that Europe already faces excess supply overall, but certain grades like clean automotive scrap could face shortages. This imbalance, he explained, is why EU steel producers push to keep scrap within Europe.

Looking at Turkey, Björkman noted that the recent increase in freight costs has become a burden for suppliers, leading prices to increase slightly in Turkey, though how long this situation will last remains difficult to predict. Regarding the changes in Turkey’s inward processing regime, the committee chairman stated that Turkish mills, who are already struggling amid high costs, may become less competitive in the short term as scrap prices may increase slightly, leading the mills to reduce production.

Meanwhile, stating that raw material demand in the GCC market is expected to focus more on DRI/HBI, which remains limited in supply, he emphasized that larger volumes will be needed in Europe to support flat steel production and the green transition, though a mix of DRI/HBI and scrap is likely to be used.

Traders at IREPAS: Protectionist measures will continue for foreseeable future

F.D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, said that China’s exports have increased at a much higher pace than its production. He stated that there are no expectations for production cuts in China and that its domestic stock levels remain at normal levels. In response to questions on how China is reacting to trade barriers, he explained that Chinese producers have begun investing in production facilities in other regions, including Africa and South America.

Looking at Turkey, Mr. Baysal said that the high cost of energy remains a key challenge for Turkish mills. He noted that, in order to save energy and comply with CBAM regulations, Turkish producers have started investing in solar and renewable energy sources, which are expected to reduce production costs. Meanwhile, saying that there are no clear plans in the EU to ease green transition requirements, though delays remain a possibility, he commented that CBAM will eventually be enforced, but significant work is still needed to establish reference levels for both European and overseas mills. He added that, despite uncertainties, European producers are already moving from blast furnaces to EAFs and investing in renewable energy sources such as solar to balance costs and meet future carbon requirements.

Commenting on protectionist measures, the committee chairman stated that the Trump administration’s tariffs, reaching 75-100 percent in some cases, have nearly halted steel imports into the US, while Canada and Mexico have also imposed strong protective measures, leaving the North American market heavily restricted. Stating that he believes that protectionist measures will continue for the foreseeable future, Baysal said that further barriers against cheaper Asian steel are likely, but stressed that free trade remains the best option, though current trends are moving in the opposite direction.

Regarding prices, he highlighted that the current spread between rebar and scrap prices stands at around $200 or slightly less. He suggested that this points to a likely regression in scrap prices. He also compared production methods, stating that blast furnaces currently hold a cost advantage of about $25/mt over electric arc furnaces as the latter depend on electricity prices, though these are lower in countries like the US. On freight, Baysal noted that container freight rates have come down from post-Covid highs of around $4,000 to about $1,200, adding that he does not expect them to fall further.

Producers at IREPAS: Chinese exports and protectionism squeeze global steel industry

Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, said that, as demand is very limited, everybody is trying to protect what is theirs. “We can sell to the EU only once every three months because of the quota and it fills up as soon as the quota is opened. Because of China we cannot sell to many places. Chinese exports are hurting everyone,” he explained. The committee chairman pointed out that China is the main driver, exporting heavily at low prices, exerting pressure everywhere amid generally limited demand. Many countries are imposing protective measures not only on China but also on some other Asian countries, considering that the Chinese are quick to move their production elsewhere to avoid trade barriers.

Regarding Turkish mills’ capacity utilization rates, Mr. Cebecioglu pointed out that, under current market conditions, utilization rates are not at decent levels and, with protectionist measures still in place, Turkey has limited space to export, with only a few countries left, and competition is very tough in those countries. He also added that the countries to which Turkey used to export have become exporters themselves and this affects Turkish production in return. Turkey’s steel production capacity stands at around 60 million mt, but the country is currently producing just 38 million mt. In addition to trade measures, China is exporting heavily all around the world and, as it is difficult to give low prices to compete with the Chinese, in the end Turkish mills have to cut production, he remarked.

Commenting on China’s work plan for the steel industry in 2025-26, the IREPAS chairman underlined that the Chinese are always coming up with some kind of plan, but it is yet to be seen how much of it will be implemented and how they will proceed. This work plan, he noted, consists of many things; regulations, environmental constraints, shutting of inefficient mills, and technological upgrading for green steel and low carbon production. In the end, future competition will depend on being cleaner, he stressed. He also commented that, if this Chinese work plan goes through, it will mean that there will be export regulations, leaving room for Turkish mills to breath.

Talking about the mega projects in the GCC region, Cebecioglu said that demand is quite good in the region and GCC-based mills are also exporting to the EU and North African countries, where they are very competitive against the Turkish mills. As GCC mills have lower costs compared to Turkish mills, they have the upper hand in prices in terms of costs.

Day 1: Sunday, September 28, 2025

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Sofitel Munich Bayerpost

Day 2: Monday, September 29, 2025

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:30 – 11:10                  SESSION ONE – Critical changes in the global long steel markets and macroeconomic overview

- Long products market outlook

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group

- Global steel scrap markets in times of uncertainty

Frank Pothen, Professor of Economics, Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena

 - Future chances and challenges in the economic environment of the global steel industry

Dr. Heinz-Jürgen Büchner, Independent Commodity Consultant

11:10 – 11:40 Networking break

 11:40 – 13:00 SESSION TWO – Global Steel Market Outlook 

- Indian and ASEAN steel and scrap market outlook 

Anastasiia Kononenko, Head of Asia Intelligence Team, SteelOrbis

- Chinese steel market outlook

Jiang Li, Chief Analyst, Baosteel

- African steel market outlook (20+5)

Ramy Saleh, Chief Business Development, Export, Marketing and Sustainability Officer, El Marakby Steel

13:00 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, September 30, 2025

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

There were 143 representatives from 49 different producers among the 502 registered delegates from a total of 58 different countries. There were also 97 registrations representing 50 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that the global long steel products market is currently overwhelmed by a spiral of duties and trade measures and protectionism such as has never been experienced before. He stated that the recently created uncertainties in the market on top of the already existing problems, the markets are now somewhat lost.

The IREPAS chairman added that the current environment is not bright and the level of competition in the global market is very strong, being almost at maximum levels.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Challenging year ahead, market will be much slower in H2

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, noted that the EU steel industry has started the year quite well, though steel production in the region was low in the first quarter. He highlighted that the new German government is expected to ease the pressure from the uncertainties on the market, which may boost steel production. Noting that the green transition in the EU seems to be postponed, indicating that there seems to be no viable transition until at least 2030, he stated that a lot of mills in the EU will start shifting from the blast furnace route to the electric arc furnace route in the next five to 10 years and there will be uneven demand for scrap until that time. Addressing the scrap export restriction plans in the EU, he stated that, as scrap demand is low in the region now, any restrictions would put pressure on the steel industry but may also lead to more bureaucratized trade between scrap generators and steelmakers.

Regarding the Trump administration’s tariff actions, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee stated that, in the first few months this year, sales to the US were at enormous levels as a new tariff was anticipated. Noting that EU-based mills were running at high capacity to export to the US before the implementation of new measures, he said he believes that the market will be much slower in the second half of this year. He added that Trump’s second term will be much different than his first term. In addition, he expressed the belief that, despite the actions taken by the US, Canada and Mexico will not impose tax on steel exports to the US as the US is their biggest trade partner and a restriction would hurt their own industries.

Björkman stated that iron ore prices have been fluctuating at around $100/mt CFR, compared to $89/mt CFR seen in September 2024, due to higher production at the end of last year and early this year. He noted that, if China lowers steel production and the general output of iron ore increases, these two factors together will result in lower iron ore prices.

Traders at IREPAS: No reduction in US tariffs expected, trade conditions remain challenging

F. D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, stated that, although the US imposing new 25 percent tariffs on imports from the countries previously exempted from the Section 232 measures seems like an advantage for the countries such as Egypt and Turkey which were already subject to 25 percent tariffs, only 18 percent of total imports into the US was from the Section 232-paying countries and 82 percent was from the exempted countries. He added that, despite the advantages some countries will gain, there will be no improvement in the market conditions given the economic uncertainties and the general market slowdown. Also, he said he believes that there will be no reduction in the US tariffs.

Looking at the EU, he said there have been some reductions in the import quota volumes, resulting in more challenging trade conditions. Considering the increased sales of wire rod and HRC over the past quarter from the ASEAN region to the EU, Mr. Baysal noted that, even though there are some restrictions on certain ASEAN countries, the EU is now more open to those countries compared to its old traditional markets given the free trade agreements between the EU and some Southeast Asian countries.

Mr Baysal added that he foresees no reduction in China’s exports and capacity utilization going forward.

Producers at IREPAS: Markets in unknown territory because of tariffs

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, pointed out that the hot topic during the producers committee meeting was tariffs and their effect on business, adding that this is completely unknown territory and that nobody has any idea where things are headed at the moment, which makes it very difficult to conduct business.

He said that, as the Chinese domestic market is not doing so well, China will still be the main factor depressing prices as it is heavily dependent on exports and its prices are quite low compared to those of other exporters. He went on to say that the stimulus package is not helping much at the moment to boost to market, which is why China is selling billet to countries like Turkey and many other countries.

The IREPAS chairman noted that, as billet is a competitive alternative to scrap in terms of price, particularly Turkish mills will keep buying billet, adding that, as long as prices are at the current levels buying billets is much more profitable, even though the lead times from Asia are two to three times longer.

Commenting on the GCC shifting from being an importer to being an exporter, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that the reason they are exporting is that they have overcapacity, and are selling to the EU, especially Germany, and to North Africa and Israel. He indicated that the answer to the question on whether their exports will continue depends on how infrastructure projects will take shape in the region in the coming period and how much of that demand the local market can absorb: otherwise, they will continue to export.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Athenaeum InterContinental Athens Hotel

Day 2: Monday, April 28, 2025

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:30 – 10:50                   SESSION ONE – Critical changes in the global long steel markets and macroeconomic overview

- Long products market outlook

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group

- Macroeconomic Overview

Nikos Vettas, Professor, Athens University of Economics and Business / General Director, Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research

10:50 – 11:20                     Networking break

11:20 – 13:00                    SESSION TWO – Major factors effecting the markets

- Chinese steel market outlook

Su Changyong, Vice Chairman, Metallurgical Council of CCPIT / Deputy Secretary General, CISA / President, Metallurgical Industry Press

- Trump’s trade policy and EU reactions: what lies ahead for steel trade?

Matthew Nolan, Counsel, ArentFox Schiff LLP

Nikolay Mizulin, Partner and Co-leader of International Trade, Mayer Brown

Bulent Hacioglu, Managing Partner, Trade Resources Company

- The next phase of CBAM: preparing for 2026 and beyond

Jamie Mcleod, Senior Manager, Customs, Crowe U.K. LLP

13:00 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, April 29, 2025

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

The global long steel products market is currently overwhelmed by a spiral of duties and trade measures – protectionism such as has never been experienced before. The scenario for global the long steel trade is being re-written now by governments. Tariff barriers are being erected all over the world.

No one seems to know where we are heading

Because of the uncertainties created by the US administration on top of the already existing problems, the markets are now somewhat lost. As a result, pressure is very high. Unpredictable decisions by the US government can change the plans of market players overnight. It seems the US finally discovered the best method of protection by creating uncertainties and making it hard to export to the USA.

Some good news from China but it may continue to export

The news released after the national congress in China is promising. However, we still need to see if the production reductions will become a reality. It would have been great if the Chinese government reduced production as they did in 2015-16, but, since the economic situation in China is getting more and more difficult, exports are becoming increasingly important for them. They may simply not be in a position to enforce the production reductions on local governments and individual steel mills. Domestic prices in China are not encouraging and are still making exports more attractive.

Mills in EU unhappy with revised safeguard measures

Mills in the EU feel the region is lagging far behind the fast-changing landscape of international trade and that in the proposal for the revision of the EU safeguard measurers the European Commission has not proposed any defence measures against surging imports, thereby leaving the EU wide open for more imports and thus more trade measures from the US. On the other hand, importers feel lobbyists have finally found the best playground to get their ideas through, focusing on the destiny of downstream industries and consumers, while inefficient steel producers in the view of the importers continue to be subsidized. The new safeguard measures in the EU will surely force some of the countries exporting to the region to slow down.

Current unpredictability also hits steel business in US

The general steel business in the US has worsened. The current demand in the market is actually opportunistic buying in anticipation of higher duties in the future. There was already a surplus of material imported last month for the same reason. As for reinforcing bars, there is slower demand with less construction due to the market uncertainty and continued high interest rates. There is also higher competition between domestic producers in the US as there is more reinforcing bar produced than consumed at present, making it difficult for imports to compete. A flat 25 percent import tariff in the US will benefit low-cost countries. In long products the price increases in the US are lagging behind flat product price rises.

Scrap prices continue to rise, semis become a more attractive option

The markets have seen an almost $30/mt price increase for scrap during the last five to six weeks. The increases in scrap prices force EAF based mills to replace their scrap purchases with the procurement of semis. EAF-based mills are already priced out and the smart choice is semi-finished imports from Asia as evidenced by recent Turkish import statistics. It is a battle of costs right now and nothing else matters.

Market situation is unstable and highly volatile with a similar outlook

Overall, the current environment is not bright, to say the least. The level of competition in the global market is very strong, being almost at maximum levels.  The current situation in the market can be described as unstable with high volatility, with a similar outlook.

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Trump stated that the tariffs, which will apply to the products from trading partners with duty-free exemptions or tariff-rate quota deals, including Canada, Mexico, Australia, Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, the EU, Japan and the UK, will be effective as of March 12, 2025. However, a White House official subsequently stated that the tariffs will be effective as of March 4, 2025.

The global long steel products market is currently under very strong pressure mainly because of Chinese exports, which have been increasing and not showing any signs of slowing down. We have already seen what Trump 2.0 means – uncertainty, volatility and a lack of visibility. It seems like the situation will get even worse until the dust settles and his goals are clearly understood. So far, Trump’s announcements have given rise to concerns about inflation, which will slow down interest rate cuts.

US long steel and construction segments waiting for the dust to settle

The market in the US has entered a waiting period in terms of the outcome of some of the decisions already made by the White House and others under consideration and delayed for further negotiations. New infrastructure projects are on hold, amid the government freeze on spending. Interest rates have not come down and there is no clear sign for the near future, thus delaying many projects and also purchases by would-be home buyers. Labor shortages in the construction sector are becoming a near certainty, causing delays and higher costs for construction developments. Domestic rebar producers are reluctant to increase prices for another 30 days, until there is certainty regarding the duties on Mexico. They are generally competing with each other rather than with imports, which are very light.

All eyes still on China

On the other hand, the real determining factor for rest of the world other than the US is China, simply because the US is now a separate world for the global steel market.  We all need to wait and see what China’s policy in the current year will be: will they continue with steel exports of over 100 million mt or will they slow down to help the global market to stabilize?

EU mills locked in cycle of low demand and high costs

The EU steel market is suffering from continuing low demand for long products, with European mills locked in a cycle of poor demand and high costs. The construction market in most EU countries is still very slow due to seasonal reasons but also in general due to much less demand from investors. In this context, the merger of Badische and Van Merksteijn will certainly have an impact in terms of consolidation. Meanwhile, energy prices in Europe are once again at levels not seen since 2022. The cold winter and the shortage of base load in Germany have pushed electricity and gas prices to their highest levels of the last three years, at least until the end of spring. These higher costs will force long steel producers in the EU to increase prices and to shut down more capacities in 2025. Feralpi seemed to have stopped production completely in January, while Riva Germany officially announced shutdowns to run from January 1 to March 30.

EU’s long steel import quotas quickly exhausted at start of year

The EU’s import quota for “all other countries” was exhausted on day two or three at the start of the year, with the huge volumes which were imported by Bulgaria and Romania. This means there will not be more imports from “all other countries”. Turkey and Algeria are mostly not competitive enough to attract EU importers. The price increases announced by German and Italian mills have not yet been accepted by the market but they probably will be as soon as benders have to restock, especially given the current euro/US dollar exchange rate. The very strong US dollar is another factor keeping prices low in the international market.

Protectionism is the new magic word, consumers to lose out

Protectionism seems to be the new magic word for economies worldwide. The markets are running into a spiral of protectionism in which everybody will lose out, especially the middle-class consumers and industries.

Longs mills forced to cut outputs, low profits make environmental targets unattainable

Mills in the long steel products market are forced to lower their capacity utilization rates, which will negatively affect their cost of production. There is a chain reaction of displaced export capacities due to Chinese exports. The steel industry is also suffering from a lack of profits, that makes it impossible to achieve net zero commitments.

Current market very difficult to operate in, outlook very unpredictable and unstable

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable and very difficult to operate in. The outlook for the next quarter is very unpredictable and unstable.

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The pressure in the global long steel products market is increasing as there is no positive news from China yet, while everywhere there is weak demand, market protection and excess capacity. Some questions about the future are expected to receive answers after Trump’s inauguration on January 20

Still no positive news heard from China

Chinese export data for November 2024 showed that China was on its way to a record year in steel exports. The economic news coming from China is less than encouraging and there is no anticipation of any resurgence in its domestic demand for long steel products in 2025. In fact, it is puzzling how Chinese steel users still manage to consume 900 million mt of steel annually.

Global markets face economic strains, inflationary pressures and trade measures

The global economy faces significant challenges amid uncertainties over US trade policy before the new administration takes office. The proposed tariffs, including a 25 percent duty on imports from Canada and Mexico, could disrupt supply chains, raise costs and increase global economic strains. Rising borrowing costs could further burden industries like construction, which are already struggling with low demand and inflationary pressures. While some importing countries who are already subject to Section 232 tariffs may benefit from a more level playing field in the US, the proposed tariffs may also increase costs for domestic construction. These costs impact businesses, especially in capital-intensive industries like construction and could slow economic growth further, thus adversely affecting steel demand in general.

Could actions by Trump prove to be counter-productive?

In the US, after Trump becomes president again, mass deportations of undocumented workers could create labour shortages, particularly in construction, driving up costs and slowing growth. Domestic mills, like Commercial Metals, report losses due to domestic competition with high production capacities recently added by all domestic mills and with more capacity increases expected. While rebuilding after the Los Angeles fires may eventually boost activity, this may still be years away.

Europe still experiencing negative growth, to issue new protective measures

Europe is still experiencing negative growth. The European Union is anticipated to announce a revision of its protective measures on April 1. Turkey and India have also announced market protection measures.

Unpredictable period with low visibility ahead: what will China do?

Although market observers are expecting some answers to their questions to be made clear after January 20, the fact is that we are probably entering a very unpredictable period with low visibility. That said, there is still hope that after its New Year holiday China may repeat what it did back in 2016, but we need to wait for another month to find out.

Very strong competition in very poor market, with quite unsatisfactory outlook

Competition in the market is very strong, while the market can be described as very poor and unstable, with a very unsatisfactory outlook.

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The supply and demand balance in the global long steel products market is being impacted strongly by low demand and it is reasonable to expect that, if the US introduces new market protection measures, other countries will follow. There is simply not enough demand in the world for all the steel produced. Despite the overall gloomy scenario of mostly insufficient demand, on the bright side China has continued to announce measures to stimulate its economy, while the incoming Trump administration could take steps towards ending the war in Ukraine and bringing about a ceasefire in the Middle East, which would boost the steel markets.

Chinese exports to continue, impact of stimulus measures remains to be seen

The global long steel products market is looking to find ways to extricate itself from the desperate situation it is in. Unfortunately, exports from many countries, starting with China, are not helping at all. While production in China drops, its consumption declines even more, and so its exports increase. China has introduced stimulus packages and measures to resolve the problems of its weak real estate and construction sectors and excess steel production capacity. In China’s most recent stimulus package, financing of RMB 10 trillion ($1.4 trillion) will be provided to enable local governments in the country swap debts at high interest rates with debts at lower interest rates, which is intended to bolster economic activity nationwide. Nevertheless, the Chinese are on their way towards a record year of exports and will export more this year than the total steel production of the US and Canada combined. It remains to be seen whether this situation will change in 2025 under the impact of the stimuli the government has announced. China may indeed need to take further action, similar to the situation in 2016, and it is best if such action is taken before the Chinese New Year holidays.

US remains bright spot in terms of demand, India to see strong rise in steel consumption

The US remains a consistent source of demand in the world. China’s share of global exports and its trade surplus, meanwhile, have hit a new high. It is not a healthy situation and the US will be taking measures to curb Chinese exports. Looking forward to 2025, it is worth pointing out that worldsteel expects 1.2 percent growth in global steel consumption next year, with a 4.2 percent increase foreseen in developing countries, excluding China, while steel consumption in India is predicted to rise by 8.0 percent and consumption in the developed world is expected to grow by 1.9 percent. In particular, the increase foreseen for India is especially noteworthy.

EU market depressed by low demand, overwhelmed by imports

The EU is suffering from low demand and is overwhelmed by imports. Quotas expire very quickly from the day when they are opened and new exotic suppliers have been finding their way into the EU market.

Outlook for Europe and Germany deteriorates

Europe, and in particular Germany, is in a recession. Finally, all the rules and regulations imposed by the EU and the German government over recent years, combined with great geopolitical uncertainty and stagnating international economies, have hit Europe with full strength. What was expected six months ago is finally reaching the man in the street, who is now feeling that the times of non-existent unemployment are coming to an end. Investments are reduced in all fields of the economy and private spendings are at an all-time low, despite the high salary increases of the last two to three years.

Building industry experiencing a tsunami of empty order books

The building industry is experiencing a tsunami with order books as empty as they were 15 years ago. Unfortunately, no light at the end of the tunnel is anticipated in 2025. Such a consolidation in the cut and bend industry in Germany has never been seen and it seems like this is only the beginning.

All eyes on US after Trump’s re-election

After the recent US election, moves to “get America going again” are expected to be seen. Tariffs are on the table and if equally distributed they may create opportunities for the countries already struggling under the Section 232 duties. However, apart from Mexico, other exempt countries may not receive additional tariffs for their steel. Other products like automobiles, wine, etc., may be affected. China will be the biggest loser in terms of future export opportunities to the US. For this reason, it may be more aggressive in its export strategies without worrying about the global reactions. As for US steel, in the short term, US steel prices will go up with the anticipation of new duties. The easing of interest rates will also stimulate the domestic construction industry. However, the situation may level out by the second quarter next year. Additionally, on the positive side, there are hopes that the new Trump administration will focus on bringing the war in Ukraine to an end, and could also step up efforts to bring about a ceasefire in the Middle East. Such developments would have a huge impact in terms of regional security and provide a strong boost to economies and markets worldwide.

Interest rate cuts offer some hope

On the other hand, interest rate cuts have started in some economies and they may push up commodity prices further if they are continued. In particular, some Europeans are hopeful that business will pick up in 2025.

Markets undergo further fragmentation

There has been a further fragmentation of the markets. Aggressive competition is observed in open markets and fair demand in domestic markets. Competition inside the US is heating up as some products are unable to contribute to fixed costs. Mills in the EU are competing hard with each other to grab every ton available as long as their sales manage to cover their costs. Competition from imports is getting weaker and weaker in the EU as international prices do not attract buyers due to the very small advantage compared to domestic prices and with long lead times making imports too risky.

Unstable and fluctuating global market to continue to face lack of demand

Under these circumstances, the global long steel market can be described as unstable and fluctuating as there is a lack of demand. Unfortunately, the outlook for the market is not so bright, as it still points out to a continuing lack of demand and further fluctuations.

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