At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that demand in the global long steel products market continues to lag behind supply. He added that the situation was getting worse because of China’s aggressive export policy and that Chinese exporters would continue to be aggressive, which of course would drive other Asian exporters to be aggressive also.

The IREPAS chairman said the situation in the global long steel products market is deteriorating, adding that there is huge uncertainty on what the next couple of quarters will bring for the global long products market, where it seems the situation will be extremely difficult.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: General market mood hopeful for improvement

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the committee meeting findings regarding the general situation in the global steel and raw material markets, noting that the markets have been struggling this year compared to the past few years amid the worsening of economies due to high inflation and interest rates. However, he stated that the general mood is hopeful for a return to something slightly more forward-looking and optimistic.

Regarding Western countries, he stated that high interest rates and inflation have been putting pressure on scrap generation in the US and the EU, and added that the interest rates in the EU are expected to be cut during the spring. With the anticipated increase in scrap demand due to electric arc furnace investments especially in the US, Canada and Europe, Mr. Björkman noted that scrap flows will change significantly in the next 10 years, regionalizing scrap generation where scrap demand is high. In addition, he stated that steel producers have started to look for alternatives to scrap like pig iron, HBI and DRI to cover their needs for raw material. Indicating that scrap generation in Europe is down by 15-50 percent depending on the part of the region, Björkman said that, with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), European scrap suppliers will try to keep scrap volumes within the regional market, reducing scrap exports from the region especially to Turkey, which operates mostly with electric arc furnaces and has significant demand for scrap.

Looking at China, noting that the country’s economy was expected to rebound after the Chinese New Year holiday but that these expectations did not materialize, he stated that China’s economy is going through a period of normalization. Meanwhile, pointing out that before the recent rebound iron ore prices had fallen to $100/mt CFR in the first quarter this year from the higher-than-expected level last year of $120/mt CFR, he said that the factors contributing to the price drop included high iron ore inventories at Chinese ports, slow demand and lower steel production. He concluded by saying that the market in China is adjusting to the lack of recovery of demand after the Chinese New Year holiday, adding that he expects iron ore prices to remain at quite high levels.

Traders at IREPAS: Global demand to be supplied locally, market conditions lead to regionalization

F. D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, stated that there is demand globally but that it will be supplied locally, adding that ongoing trade tensions, global conflicts and political instability have changed trade routes, resulting in regionalization.

Looking at the other factors that lead to regionalization, Mr. Baysal expressed the view that the EU’s safeguard measures will be extended for another two years and that its quota volume adjustment will be minimal if any. Regarding the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, he stated that it will put pressure on other countries, especially on blast furnace-based producers.

Remarking that Turkey’s export markets have been limited due to the US safeguard measures, the EU quota restrictions and the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the chairman of the traders committee stated that there are still some export opportunities for the country, including Syria, Iraq, eastern Europe, Africa and possibly Yemen. In addition, noting that the shipping crisis in the Red Sea has affected freight rates and container shipments a lot more than bulk shipments, shipments had to be shifted from containers to bulk, leading to additional costs.

Looking at China, Baysal said that the low steel demand in the country amid cancelled infrastructure projects has resulted in an increase in the country’s exports, with China dominating the global market with its lower prices and higher quality of steel, leading the strong competition. He also cited the Chinese Metallurgical Industry Institute’s prediction for a 1.7 percent drop in China’s steel demand in 2024, after a 3.3 percent decline in 2023, while further noting that China’s steel export volume increased by 14 percent year on year in the first quarter, though the value of its steel exports during this period was down by 20 percent year on year.

Producers at IREPAS: Low demand and Chinese exports weigh heavily on global steel market

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, shared with participants the conclusions reached by producers regarding the current situation in the markets. He said that the GCC region is more optimistic in terms of business given the big infrastructure projects in the pipeline there, while market conditions in Egypt are getting better and better as the country’s currency issue has mostly been resolved, though the Suez Canal crisis remains a challenge. In some EU markets, the economy is picking up and inflation seems to be under control, while in others demand still remains quite low.

Commenting on the situation in China, the hot topic at the conference, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that Chinese exports will definitely affect the global market negatively and will reach high levels as they did back in 2015. However, this time the number of export markets is limited because of protectionism and Chinese exports will be more problematic in terms of competition. He went on to say that, apart from China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam are also exporting heavily and competing with each other. This will affect other suppliers and, as one of the biggest long steel exporters, Turkey is already feeling the effects, the chairman of the producers committee noted. Chinese exports are also taking a toll on the EU market, which is also struggling with very low demand especially in the northern part of the region.

Other exporters to the EU have to deal with quota measures as well as the Chinese competition. Cebecioğlu said the EU will most probably extend its quotas for another two years and, with new suppliers such as the GCC and North Africa, things will be tough this year before picking up and getting better next year.

Responding to a question regarding how Turkish mills managed to increase production in the first quarter of the current year, the committee chairman said that, in terms of sales, the first quarter this year was much better than the corresponding period last year. Turkish mills were able to sell considerable amounts to the EU and, with the quotas opening up, they had a window for exports. Commenting on the reconstruction works in Turkey’s southern region which was devastated by earthquakes last year, Cebecioğlu stated, “Construction activity has already started in the region, and it is mainly the mills in the region that are benefitting from all this. Since export activity is very low, this gives these mills a little bit of a break, and also funding should not be a problem as these projects are being financed by the government.”

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at InterContinental Berlin

Day 2: Monday, April 29, 2024

09:00 – 09:15                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:15 – 09:45                   SESSION ONE – Critical changes in the global long steel markets

- Long products market outlook

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group

09:45 – 10:40                  SESSION TWO – Macroeconomic overview

Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX Research, Commerzbank AG

10:40 – 11:10                     Networking break

11:10 – 12:30                    SESSION THREE – Critical changes in the global long steel markets

- Chinese steel market outlook

Yuan Wenjiong, Chairman, Dao Fortune

- Indian steel market outlook

Somanath Tripathy, Executive Director(Materials Management), Rourkela Steel Plant, Steel Authority of India Limited

- Ukrainian economy and steel industry: current situation and outlook

• Current situation in Ukraine steel industry: production, capacities, shifts in trade
• Logistics and ports
• Redirection of trade flows
• Metinvest’s strategy under current conditions
• Prospects for Ukraine’s exports and imports

Roman Perepelytsia, Head of Strategy & Business Development, Metinvest Holding

12:30 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, April 30, 2024

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

Raw material suppliers: Increasing Chinese exports will alter market balances

Ioannis Meimaroglou, chairman of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee, stated that the increasing volume of exports from China due to the slowdown of Chinese domestic consumption is influencing the world market and will certainly change the existing steel trade balances. Mr. Meimaroglou said that the some members of the raw materials committee expressed the view that the threat of cheap Chinese steel exports is being used more as a pretext to exert downward pressure on raw material prices, while others stated that, if Chinese exports reach 100-120 million tons annually, the consequences will be serious, independently of whether these exports are directed to Turkey or to other countries.

Meimaroglou added that the increasing raw material demand in the market and particularly in the Arabian peninsula is creating a new situation in the region and can change the correlations on a more permanent and long-term basis. He went on to say that the considerable fall in iron ore prices has been increasing the pressure on scrap prices, adding that the strengthening of the US dollar is helping raw material suppliers for the time being, covering a part of the price fall.

Regarding scrap collection, Meimaroglu stated that the domestic markets in the US, Europe and Russia are very strong and healthy and so it is difficult to compete with them in order to collect material for export, leaving most scrap yards almost empty. He concluded by saying that the raw material market is likely to see further pressure on prices, drastically affecting suppliers’ quantities, while also adding that the direction of scrap flow may change in the future.

Traders see new possibilities for business with Iran, upbeat on Iraq and Ukraine

The traders committee chairman F.D. Baysal said that, despite the political instability in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq and Syria, shipments to Iraq are still continuing, though with some interruptions. He underlined that there are new possibilities for buying from and selling to Iran which is a new market to look forward to.

Regarding the tensions between Ukraine and Russia, Mr. Baysal stated that business is being carried on as usual, with minor interruptions which do not pose any major problems for traders. The trade flow in the region is observed to be continuing as before.

Commenting on different antidumping cases, Mr. Baysal remarked that, since Turkey is exempt from US rebar antidumping duties, rebar exports from Turkey to the US will continue, adding that the pricing may not change. He pointed out that, with China exiting the US market as a result of the wire rod antidumping duty investigation, there will be new countries entering the US market.

With regard to the increasing volumes of Chinese exports flooding the market, Baysal said that he has been always a supporter of free trade as long as it is also fair trade – speaking in response to market information that China is exporting to North Africa with 180-day credit terms, with insurance provided by a state-owned company.

Finally, commenting on raw material prices, the traders committee chairman said that iron ore prices have been declining and probably will decline further, forcing scrap prices to decline as well. Traders are looking forward to seeing lower prices, he affirmed.

Steel producers: Changing billet prices will lead to new market realities

The chairman of the steel producers committee, Kim Marti, who is also chairman of IREPAS, stated that Turkey is out of the billet market in addition to the interruptions to the business in Ukraine and that the market has been left to the Chinese mills. Mr. Marti added that the Chinese billet suppliers gaining ground in the region will put pressure on billet prices in the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions and also on scrap prices, since billets are used as a substitute for scrap. Mr. Marti, along with the other committee chairmen, agreed that certain measures should be imposed against Chinese exports.

Mr. Marti pointed out that the changing billet prices will take the industry to a new setup in the coming months, though also saying that the market adjusts quickly to new realities. Rebar demand will see a slight increase compared to 2013, Mr. Marti said, adding that the Turkish mills are happy with their domestic market and are looking forward to new trade routes opening up again to Iraq.

The producers committee chairman also said that, while the northern EU countries are performing well, the situation is less bright for southern EU countries. Italian, Spanish and Greek mills are still facing significant overcapacity under very slow market circumstances, finding the balance with exports to North Africa and production cuts. Mr.Marti added that they are starting to see signs of revival in consumption in Greece and Spain.

Commenting on the EU mills’ investments in environmental protection, Mr. Marti said that it is not something that the mills should abandon, while other committee chairmen agreed that environmental protection constitutes a social responsibility aspect of businesses and should be continued.

The IREPAS chairman stated that overcapacity is still the main problem the steel industry is facing, citing China as the principal source of the overcapacity with new steelmaking capacities coming on stream in the country. Mr. Marti also included the change in the iron ore-scrap price balance, as well as trade barriers and credit restrictions as problems the industry is coping with.

Marti also said that the key risks to the global economy, such as geopolitical tensions including conflicts in Ukraine and in the Africa/MENA region, should be closely monitored. He indicated that the long-term fundamentals for long steel products remain solid, with emerging economies expected to continue to drive long steel product demand, especially in Asia. However, despite demand growth, margins for EAF producers have been squeezed, while iron ore-based producers have been benefiting from relatively low iron ore prices.

Mr. Marti commented on the fear of oversupply from China in the market, stating that it is justified, pointing out that Chinese rebar production totaled almost 220 million mt in 2013. He said that the EU is still facing a period of low consumption compared to 2008-09 and is trying to adapt its production to the market by shutting down excess capacities.

The IREPAS chairman said; global steel consumption grew by 3.1 percent in 2013, confirming its sustained growth since 2009. More than three percent growth is expected in both 2014 and 2015. Global apparent steel finished use is forecast at 1.52 billion mt in 2014, with long steel product consumption this year expected to reach 846 million mt. He went on to say that the Asian markets, which account for more than 70 percent of total long steel product consumption, continue to drive global consumption volumes and growth.

Regarding long steel product consumption in terms of the different products, Kim Marti said that rebar has gained market share and accounts for 43 percent of total long steel product consumption, with wire rod accounting for 27 percent, merchant bar for 24 percent, and sections for six percent. Overall annual growth in rebar consumption in 2014 is foreseen to reach 5.3 percent, with significant strength in North America (with a predicted rise of 7.8 percent) and signs of recovery in the EU (with an anticipated 5.9 percent increase in rebar consumption for the full year). Mr. Marti affirmed that the developing economies are driving global rebar consumption, with China accounting for 55 percent of total consumption.

September 28th, Sunday

14:00 – 19:00 Registration desk opens at the lobby
19:00 – 23:00 Welcome Cocktail at Hilton Berlin Hotel
September 29th, Monday 

08:30 – 09:00 Registration desk opens at the conference area
09:00 – 10:00 Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS – Kim Marti

SESSION ONE – Global Economic Outlook
Keynote Speaker: Lutz Karpowitz, Commerzbank AG

10:00 – 11:00  Guest Speaker: Peter Draper (former director of Man.Utd. FC)

11:00 – 11:30 Networking Break

11:30 – 12:30 SESSION TWO – Global Trends, Diminishing Exports and Trade Cases

• EU economy and long product market outlook / Speaker : Franc Cardona, Celsa Group
• US market trends and trade cases / Speaker: Bernd Neuenkirchen, C&F International

• Steel trends and expectations: MENA and GCC / Speaker: Abdulaziz Abdul Razaq Hashim , Qatar Steel

12:30 – 14:00 Lunch Break

14:00 – 17:00 IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:00–15:45 Wire Rod & Rebar Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:00–15:45 Billet Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 16:00–17:00 Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30–17:00 Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30–17:00 Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

20:00 – 23:00 Gala Dinner

September 30th, Tuesday 

09:30 – 11:00 SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

Committees:
- Wire Rod & Rebar Suppliers Committee
- Billet Suppliers Committee
- Producers Committee
- Raw Material Suppliers Committee
- Traders Committee

All details will be announced soon.