The DOC found that revocation of the antidumping duty orders on the given product from the given seven countries would likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of dumping.

The weighted-average dumping margins are at

• 114.53 percent for Belarus,
• 133.0 percent for China,
• 60.46 percent and 71.01 percent for Indonesia,
• 17.21 percent for Latvia,
• 232.86 percent for Moldova,
• 47.13 percent and 52.07 percent for Poland
• 41.69 percent for Ukraine

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings

• 7214.20.00,
• 7228.30.8050,
• 7222.11.0050,
• 7222.30.0000,
• 7228.60.6000,
• 7228.20.1000

of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS).

The weighted-average dumping margins stand at

• 114.53 percent for Belarus,
• 133.00 percent for China,
• 60.46 percent and 71.01 percent for Indonesia,
• 16.99 percent for Latvia,
• 232.86 percent for Moldova,
• 47.13 percent and52.07 percent for Poland,
• 41.69 percent for Ukraine.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings 7214.20.00, 7228.20.8050, 7222.11.0050, 7222.30.0000, 7228.60.6000, and 7228.20.1000 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS).

As a result of minor changes made in the decision, wire rod importers will be subject to a tax liability of

• $175/mt during June 15, 2024-January 6, 2025;
• $170/mt during January 7, 2025-January 6, 2026 and
• $165/mt between January 7, 2026 and January 6, 2027.

Also, products originating from 113 countries and customs territories, including Afghanistan, Argentina, the Philippines and Belarus, will be exempt from the safeguard measure and be subjected to quotas. In this context, a quota of 33,898 mt will be applied in the first period of the measure and 67,796 mt in the second and third periods. However, the quota given for each country or customs territory will not exceed 11,299 mt in the first period and 22,599 mt in the second and third periods.

The products subject to the investigation fall under Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers 7213.10.00.00.00, 7213.91.10.00.00, 7213.91.20.00.00, 7213.91.41.00.11, 7213.91.41.00.12, 7213.91.41.00.13, 7213.91.41.00.19, 7213.91.49.00.11, 7213.91.49.00.12, 7213.91.49.00.13, 7213.91.49.00.19, 7213.91.70.10.11, 7213.91.70.10.12, 7213.91.70.10.13, 7213.91.70.10.19, 7213.91.70.90.00, 7213.91.90.00.00, 7213.99.10.00.11, 7213.99.10.00.13, 7213.99.90.10.11, 7213.99.90.10.13, 7213.99.90.10.19, 7213.99.90.90.00, 7227.10.00.00.00, 7227.20.00.00.00, 7227.90.10.00.00, 7227.90.50.00.00, and 7227.90.95.00.00.

The DOC found that revocation of the antidumping duty orders on the given product from the given seven countries would be likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of dumping. The DOC has determined weighted-average dumping margin of up to

• 114.53 percent for Belarus,
• 133.00 percent for China,
• 71.01 percent for Indonesia,
• 16.99 percent for Latvia,
• 232.86 percent for Moldova,
• 52.07 percent for Poland,
• 41.69 percent for Ukraine.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings 7214.20.00, 7228.20.8050, 7222.11.0050, 7222.30.0000, 7228.60.6000, and 7228.20.1000 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS).

As a result of the ITC’s affirmative determinations, the existing orders on imports of this product from Belarus, Italy, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom will remain in place.

The DOC found that revocation of the antidumping duty orders on the given product from the given countries would be likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of dumping.

The DOC has determined weighted-average dumping margins of up to 280.02 percent for Belarus, 18.89 percent for Italy, 41.10 percent for South Korea, 756.93 percent for Russia, 142.26 percent for South Africa, 32.64 percent for Spain, 4.44 percent for Turkey, 44.03 percent for Ukraine, 84.10 percent for the UAE, and 147.63 percent for the UK.

The products in question are currently classifiable in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) under subheading 7213.91.3011, 7213.91.3015, 7213.91.3020, 7213.91.3093; 7213.91.4500, 7213.91.6000, 7213.99.0030, 7227.20.0030, 7227.20.0080, 7227.90.6010, 7227.90.6020, 7227.90.6030, and 7227.90.6035.

The applicable duties range between 2.4 percent and 108.5 percent. The antidumping duties were imposed in May 2017.

The products in question currently fall under Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers 7213.10.00.11, 7213.10.00.12, 7213.10.00.13, 7213.10.00.90, 7214.20.00.11, 7214.20.00.12, 7214.20.00.13, 7214.20.00.14, 7214.20.00.21, 7214.20.00.22, 7214.20.00.23, 7214.20.00.24, 7214.20.00.31, 7214.20.00.32, 7214.20.00.33, 7214.20.00.34, 7214.20.00.90, 7215.90.00.20, 7215.90.00.30, 7215.90.00.50, 7228.30.00.51, 7228.30.00.52 and 7228.30.00.53.

Some oversupply is observed here and there in the global long steel products market. The market situation is getting worse. In particular, there is a vacuum in Western markets due to the war in Ukraine. Price hikes were very rapid and very steep, which could be a reason. Energy prices have negatively impacted manufacturing, especially in Europe. Inflation is another factor which has also been having a negative impact on consumption, though it is still difficult to comprehend why the market has been so silent during recent weeks and to understand what has been causing prices of scrap to drop by such significant margins.

Reinforcing bar mills in EU in good position to keep prices at high levels

Reinforcing bar mills in the EU are in a good position to maintain their prices at high levels despite lower demand and internationally weakening prices, as Turkish and Algerian imports have been out of the market since quotas expired as of early April.

Lack of clarity in EU on lifting of safeguards or quota increases for some products

There is still no signal from Brussels regarding the lifting of safeguards or increases in quota volumes for certain products. Hence, offers are expected to stay tight. Brussels is responsible for the detrimental usage of the “all other countries” quota in April because of the strange handling of the Russian and Belorussian quotas.

Scrap price premium shrinks in April influenced by Russian semis supplies

The pricing premium on ferrous scrap, which was an effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, deteriorated during April as Russian semi-finished products have been able to find destinations in Asia and Turkey via trading intermediaries. Russian ferrous materials trade at a steep discount to other suppliers, with fewer destinations available. The March war premium was lost in April despite the war continuing and despite continued disruptions amid the ongoing brutality of the invasion.

Intra-European trade at good levels

Demand remains good in intra-European trade where supply in the long product market is insufficient compared to demand.

Strong dollar puts pressure on commodity and ferrous metals sectors

In uncertain times, a safe heaven is provided by the US dollar, which has been trading at a five-year high against the euro. This has been putting pressure on the commodity and ferrous metals sectors as well.

Chinese lockdowns put pressure on global raw material prices

There has been a slowdown in China due to the Covid lockdowns and property developers still being in trouble after the Evergrande crisis. The majority of the Chinese population is still affected by lockdowns due to China’s zero Covid strategy. The lockdowns have also had a negative impact on demand and prices, with global raw material prices coming under pressure.

Margins for producers and users still very good, post-Covid situation in West a positive

The margins for producers and users worldwide are still very good, with Ramadan now over and production growth in China still negative. The pandemic is almost over, at least in the Western world. The post-Covid situation in major markets remains a positive, which boosts consumption.

Russian exports disrupt pricing, war in Ukraine contributes to uncertainty

Competition in the global longs market remains very regional due to trade measures. But Russian exports have been causing significant disruptions as far as pricing is concerned. The war in Ukraine and the worldwide uncertainty does not help the markets to resume their normal business mode. The situation is very challenging when trade is very intermittent and so competition is not very intense.

Market situation unstable though outlook satisfactory despite challenges

The current situation in the market can be described as fluctuating and unstable as market demand is intermittent. The outlook, however, is still very good and satisfactory despite being challenging in certain regions.

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The global long steel products market has entered a new and completely unprecedented situation as a result of the war in Ukraine. The current situation means one of the largest suppliers of many raw and semi-processed materials will be completely excluded from the market for an unforeseeable period of time, with the consequences being almost impossible to predict at the moment.

Supplies of raw materials and semis from northern Black Sea at standstill

There will certainly be difficulties which, in fact, have started already, with the supplies of raw material and semis from the northern shores of the Black Sea. The situation will definitely push prices up due to the reduction in shipments in general out of Russia and Ukraine, and the depth of the impact will be shaped by the extent of the measures against Russia and the duration of the conflict. We may see further shortages in energy supplies, which will increase costs further. The price increases for all steel products and the supply shortages will be greater and more serious than many people expected. There will be a long-term disruption of trade and shipments.

Will the steel industry have enough raw materials for April? No firm prices for anything

The steel industry does not know if it has enough raw materials to operate in April, nor does it know what the price will be for those raw materials that are available for purchase.  The steel industry is not quoting firm prices for anything, and any price mentioned would have been inconceivable before the last week of February. A significant part of commercial billet and slab has suddenly been put out of the global business. The CIS is a major part of this trade along with pig iron and iron ore pellets. We are currently going through a massive remapping of logic. Materials need to be covered from other sources in an already limited market. Conditions are extremely tight, which also shows in short-term pricing spikes.

Russian exporters hit by sanctions

Russian exporters have hit a brick wall in the Black Sea. There will be enormous problems with shipments whether westwards or southwards, as well as financial and logistical difficulties. Companies from the countries that have joined the sanctions will be making sure that their supply chains are not using material from the sanctioned countries. Ships that load cargoes at Russian ports will be subject to sanctions themselves: they may lose insurance and their cargoes will not be insured. Many customers will not take the risk of buying products of Russian origin.

Far East ports and China to remain best option for Russia’s exports

On the other hand, Russian mills are expected to maintain production but flows of steel will be from their Far East ports and by rail delivery to China.  Russian mills have the absolute lowest cost of production and by far the lowest marginal cost of producing one ton of steel. So, if they can ship and get paid, they will flood the Asian markets including the Indian subcontinent with increased quantities. This will affect the flows of everyone else in Asia and may not be welcome by the Chinese steel industry. China is the most stable steel market in the world today and it does not want instability.

China set to become dominant billet supplier to North Africa

China will probably become the dominant supplier of billets to North African markets, in competition with Turkish suppliers. The overall situation is bleak. The world is now very short of BF and DR pellets. The shortages of pig iron and HBI already existed.  For many users of such raw materials, Ukraine and Russia were the No. 1 or No. 2 supplier.

Scrap market in chaos, exporters delay new sales to compensate for previous losses

Scrap exporters sold at least 1.3 million metric tons of scrap to Turkey for March shipment and most of this tonnage is yet to be collected. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, all markets are upside down and the cost of scrap in all regions is going up. At present, the demand is for April cargoes and sellers are busy trying to complete their old-priced tonnages for March. When the scrap market moves up further, the cost of collection also rises further, increasing losses for March, but this seems unavoidable. Accordingly, exporters are trying to delay their new sales for April as much as possible in order to compensate for the mentioned losses, making the current market situation even worse.

Price in US may have hit bottom

In the US market, prices had been softening until recently and have maybe hit bottom now. demand is strong, but domestic mills seem to satisfy most of the demand. Most international mills have stopped giving offers, so no new offers are available anyway. The holiday season is almost over. The only remaining holiday is Ramadan. Furthermore, we are almost at the end of the pandemic, unless another variant surprises us. Prices will go up in some places and prices could at the same time go down in others. Anyone who is not afraid of sanctions will be able to enjoy very cheap Russian and Belorussian origin raw materials and steel.

Not much competition in global longs market, severe competition for scrap

There is not much competition in the market. Prices will explode due to logistical problems and competition will be more and more regional. On the other hand, there is already severe competition among scrap importing countries to obtain scrap, and this is expected to continue. Winter conditions will be over by April, so scrap flows will be normalised. However, the loss of volumes from Russia and Ukraine will have to be compensated for somehow.

Market is currently unstable, outlook is extremely unpredictable

The current status of the market can be described as fluctuating and unstable. The outlook is also extremely unpredictable. Regardless of whether the steel industry does quite well, major questions will exist around increased inflation and possibly lower growth, perhaps stagflation.

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Accordingly, Ukraine’s interdepartmental commission on international trade has imposed a 16.08 percent special customs duty on ex-Belarus steel deformed bars of up to 40 mm in diameter produced from carbon and alloyed steel. The duty will come into force in seven days after the publication of the statement is published in the Official Gazette.