At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the global long products market has recently been suffering from declining imports and exports and a lack of supply-demand balance.

The IREPAS chairman said the reduced production levels in 2022 have been carried over into 2023 and are able to satisfy actual consumption, which has resulted in an aversion to imported steel due to the lack of certainty, leading to a decline in the scope of international business.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Output cuts in EU to bring down scrap prices

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the committee meeting findings stating that the past few months have been challenging for the global steel market due to drastic price drops, higher energy prices and weak global demand.

Mr. Björkman pointed out that the energy crisis in the EU has eased, going back to pre-war levels and standing at a 10-year average, though high interest rates still remain a challenge. He said that there is a likelihood of production cuts ahead of the summer, which would bring down scrap prices and orders in the EU.

Regarding the potential consequences of the European Parliament’s recent revision of its Waste Shipment Regulation, Mr. Björkman stated that scrap shipments to non-OECD countries will be a major challenge, fortunately Turkey – which is a major destination for scrap supply – will not be affected. In addition, the committee chairman noted that within a five-year timeframe the EU will consume most of the scrap generated in the region itself since its steel production will shift to electric arc furnaces within the scope of green steel targets.

Aside from multiple challenges, Turkey is facing muted trade activities ahead of the approaching elections amid production cuts and weak demand for finished steel products, the committee chairman stated. He went on to say that once the election period is over Turkey is likely to see some pick-up in domestic business, though the demand in the local market will not be sufficient and so Turkey will have to try to export again. Regarding Turkey’s scrap demand, the committee chairman said that “a slower normal demand” is expected in the coming months.

Traders at IREPAS: Rough times for long steel industry         

Wilhelm Alff, chairman of the traders committee, said that the steel industry, especially the Turkish long steel industry, is going through very rough times amid weak domestic markets, high energy costs, a lot of trade cases, and new competition in the form of new players in the market such as Iran, India, China, the Middle East and Africa. Commenting on the Turkish market situation, the committee chairman said that areas which were previously reachable for Turkish long steel products are now getting less and less so, due to greater competition. He also drew attention to the fact that, as of March 31, Turkey had only used less than five percent of its EU rebar import quota, because of the reduction in EU steel demand and the increasing number of new mills in the region, for instance, the competitive offers from Oman and Egypt. He went on to say that, with the current market prices in the EU, which have been on a drastic downtrend since October last year and are at levels almost equal to import prices, buyers prefer domestic sourcing rather than waiting for late arrivals. The traders committee predicted that the EU quota situation will continue like this for at least another quarter.

Looking at China, Mr. Alff said that China’s tightening of its controls on overcapacity is likely to have a significant effect on market dynamics, resulting in decreased steel output which will support prices in turn. However, he added that this will also depend on how strictly these controls are implemented. The committee chairman stated that the anticipated demand in China failed to materialize after the New Year holidays and so it may be possible to see competitively-priced Chinese steel sold in the export markets. However, the extent to which this will happen depends on the level of demand in China and in the global market. He said that, if Chinese steel demand continues to be weaker than expected, Chinese suppliers may turn to the export markets, while China may face some obstacles due to trade measures.

Regarding the possible outcomes of the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism, Alff said that the approval of this mechanism is a significant move and it could face resistance from exporting countries such as China and India as they may consider these measures as unfair practice. He added that these countries may also respond with tariffs on European goods, which could lead to trade frictions. The committee chairman said that the eventual carbon border tax is likely to increase the cost of imported goods that have a heavy carbon footprint, which will result in difficulties for some countries as regards competing in the EU.

Producers at IREPAS: Falling energy costs and scrap prices may create opportunities   

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, pointed out that the steel industry has been experiencing challenging times amid inflation and rising interest rates, which pose a big problem for investors in making decisions about their investments. He also said that supply and demand are not balanced and that exports and imports are declining everywhere, while adding that capacity utilization rates are way below usual levels. All these factors put pressure on the market, he noted. However, he also pointed to some positive factors, saying that energy costs and scrap prices are coming down.

Commenting on Turkey, the committee chairman said that the country has lost its major traditional export markets and its leading position, adding that the countries to which Turkey used to export, like Egypt, the GCC and Indonesia, have become exporters themselves. Another obstacle facing Turkish exports are trade cases. It is difficult to sell to the US, Canada and the EU and it is impossible to sell to Singapore and Hong Kong. He stated that, with falling energy costs and scrap prices, Turkey may have the chance to do business again. Regarding the steel demand expected in Turkey’s southern region following the devastating earthquakes in February, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that the unfortunate disaster will create demand, not only for the steel industry, but also for downstream segments as well. However, he pointed out that the demand will be spread over years, adding that it is not going to come all at once like people have been saying.

Turning to China, Cebecioğlu said that the Chinese market has not picked up after the New Year holidays, while he indicated that Chinese traders are very aggressive and very much active in the export markets. The IREPAS chairman underlined that China affects all market players because of its big capacity and that the Chinese are exporting to every corner of the world, so “if they stick to reducing production, this might help”.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at InterContinental Barcelona

Day 2: Monday, May 8, 2023

09:00 – 09:10                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:10 – 10:50                    SESSION ONE: Long Products and macro economy

- Long products market outlook

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group 

- Keynote Speech :Eng Ahmed Ezz, Chairman, Ezz Industries

- Macroeconomic overview

Pedro Videla, Professor and Head of the Economics Department, IESE Business School

10:50 – 11:20                     Networking break

11:20 – 13:00                     SESSION TWO: Critical changes in markets

- Spanish steel market outlook

Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, Chief Economist, UNESID

- Turkish steel market outlook

Dr. Veysel Yayan, Secretary General, Turkish Steel Producers Association (TSPA)

- Chinese steel market outlook

• Outlook for Chinese steel production and consumption in 2023 compared to the previous year. How will the different steel-consuming industries perform?
• What steps is China is taking towards green technologies?
• How long will the increase of its EAF-based steel capacities take?
• Perspective for semis imports in China in the next few years
• With the Chinese steel industry’s ongoing focus on enlarging EAF-based production, what is the outlook for scrap supply? Will imports of scrap increase?
• China’s strategy to secure iron ore supply both from domestic mines and overseas investments

Frank (Shaoliang) Zhong, Deputy Director General, World Steel Association / Chief Representative, World Steel Association Beijing Office

- US trade policy and steel: has anything really changed post-Trump?

• The current state of US Trade measures
• Economic policies affecting steel import trade
• Comparison with past Trump administration policies

Matthew Nolan, Partner, Arent Fox LLP and Bulent R. Hacioglu, Managing Partner, Trade Resources Company

13:00 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                  Cocktail Reception InterContinental Barcelona

Day 3: Tuesday, May 9, 2023

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

At the opening of the conference Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that IREPAS firmly believes in, has supported and will always continue to support free and fair trade in steel but is very concerned by the recent developments triggered by the unilateral US tariffs, which are unjustified and against the World Trade Organisation rules and principles.

The IREPAS chairman stated that, in spite of all such protectionist measures, the global long steel products market is currently in a positive mood amid good demand worldwide. He added that, had there not been protectionist actions like the additional tariffs, quotas or safeguard measures, the global business scenario would certainly be much better. Mr.Cebecioglu said that protectionism is like a virus, expanding and hurting the international trade environment.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw material suppliers at IREPAS : Two major events have impacted the market

Jens Björkman, chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, said that, since the previous IREPAS meeting held in September 2018 in Istanbul, two major events have impacted the raw materials market. The first of these events was the significant reduction in production by Turkish steel producers – the leading buyers of scrap in the world – and the corresponding reduction in their demand for scrap. Turkish mills’ scrap demand has stabilized somewhat since then but it still remains at low levels, a fact which scrap suppliers will have to get used to. Mr. Björkman said that most of the raw materials committee members believe that they will continue to see reductions in Turkish demand for scrap due to poor domestic market conditions in Turkey.

According to the committee chairman, the second major event that influenced the raw materials market was the iron ore waste dam collapse in Brazil, which has had a strong influence on iron ore prices. He added that iron ore prices increased by 20 percent within a short time and that prices have continued to move upwards. Mr. Björkman also touched upon some other factors affecting the raw materials market, namely, the low water levels on the Rhine which had made logistics extremely difficult and costly, leading to a slowdown in the accumulation of scrap at ports for export. He stated that the slowing down of the EU automotive sector in the last six months led to the lower availability of prime scrap for export.

The committee chairman said that there has been some buildup of scrap demand in areas such as Southeast Asia, South America and North Africa, which is balancing the reduced demand from Turkey though not entirely. Answering a question about the influence of the Section 232 tariffs on US scrap exports, Mr. Björkman said that in the past few months there have been some reductions in US scrap exports, partly because of lower import needs from Turkey and partly due to stronger demand in the US domestic market, adding that US domestic scrap demand is driving down the availability of scrap for exports.

Regarding steel production in the EU, he pointed out that it has declined somewhat in the first few months of the current year, while both demand for scrap in the EU and intra-EU trade have been active and strong.

Commenting on the financing of the scrap trade, Mr. Björkman said that, right after the currency crisis in Turkey, availability of letters of credit was tight in the country and financing costs for Turkish mills increased substantially, with the currency fluctuations making these issues much more challenging.

Traders at IREPAS: Safeguard measures have a major impact on trade

Representing the IREPAS traders committee, F.D. Baysal said that safeguard measures are having a major impact on steel trade. Referring to a question by his fellow traders, Mr Baysal commented on Turkey’s alternative markets and said that Africa will by no means replace the US and the EU as a destination for Turkish exports. Mr. Baysal said there are not a lot of places the extra supply in Turkey could go to and the only solution is reducing capacity utilization.

Answering a question regarding the potential for Iran’s billet exports, Mr. Baysal said that Iran is not likely to produce steel any cheaper than Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Algeria, while sanctions make it almost impossible to buy Iranian steel.

Mr. Baysal also stated that, while the Chinese government is taking serious measures and reducing production, Chinese suppliers will definitely not be absent from the global market but, as they are more contented in their domestic market, they will be less destructive in terms of pricing in the export markets. He added that the cut in VAT in China will help stimulate the economy.

Producers at IREPAS:  Importers have become exporters and vice versa

Mr Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS and also of the IREPAS producers committee, said that GDP is growing in most countries worldwide although growth is slower than expected in some markets. Nevertheless, he added that things are getting better, which signals good demand. The IREPAS chairman said that protectionist measures are spreading like a virus throughout the world, changing trade flows.

He pointed out that importers have become exporters and vice versa. Mr. Cebecioglu stated that US President Trump totally destroyed the markets with tariffs and that others are following suit, starting a chain effect, increasing customers’ costs and ultimately causing economies to slow down.

Answering a question about the troubled Turkish exports, Mr. Cebecioglu said that the main export markets for Turkey have become Yemen and Israel, with the US and Canada being out of reach. However, the committee chairman reiterated that the Turkish steel industry has gone through difficult times before and will get through this one as well.

19:00 – 22:00                        Welcome cocktail at Hilton Diagonal Mar Barcelona

Day 2: Monday, April 8, 2019

09:00 – 09:15                        Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:15 – 10:15                          SESSION ONE – Global economic outlook

-  What is next in the global economy?

- How European and British economy trending after Brexit
- Impact of trade wars on global trade and economical growth
- Most recent expectations in economic growth rates
- Most recent developments in major economies
- Short and long term expectations in major economies
- Risks and challanges

Prof. Núria Mas, IESE Business School / Head of the Economics Department

10:15 – 10:45                           Networking break

10:45 – 12:30                           SESSION TWO – Critical changes in global long steel markets

- Long products market outlook

Daniel González, Celsa Group / International Commercial Director

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

-    Development and outlook of Chinese steel industry

Jiang Xiaodong, China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute (MPI) / Assistant President, Director of Comprehensive Planning Department

-    MENA and GCC Market Outlook

Juma Nasser Al Mansouri, Emirates Steel Industries / Vice President – Sales

-    How the steel industry can use freight to its advantage

Denny Sabah, Clarksons Shipbrokers / Business Development

12:30 – 14:30                           Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                           IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:30 – 18:00                            Cocktail Reception

Day 3: Tuesday, April 9, 2019

09:30 – 11:00                           SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

Ioannis Meimaroglu, chairman of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee, underlined the record-high 44 registrations of representatives of a total of 32 different raw material supplier companies for this latest IREPAS meeting, and continued by stating that, in the first few months of the current year, scrap exports from the US and Europe have declined by as much as 30-40 percent year on year, partly due to the harsh winter conditions, but mostly due to the strong demand coming from domestic mills in the US. Meimaroglou quoted the US suppliers who mentioned that, even if scrap prices in the international market reach the level of $400/mt, it will still be difficult to compete with the current strength of the US domestic market. A similar situation was also outlined by European suppliers from Germany, Belgium and Sweden.

The substantial decrease in scrap exports from Romania – down to a monthly volume of just 72,000 mt compared to the previously normal monthly volume of 150,000 mt – came as a result of low scrap collection prices, stated the committee chairman, adding that scrap availability will continue at Rostov and other Azov Sea ports, especially after the opening of navigation on the rivers (around mid-April), but, of course, only if international market prices reach at least the same levels as prices from domestic factories.

The IREPAS raw materials suppliers committee chairman also said that Russian scrap exporters are now facing significant financing problems, as banks are taking serious measures after the events in Crimea and in eastern Ukraine in general. This may lead to new financing conditions for the suppliers and their clients, at least for a period of time until the normalization of relations between Russia and Ukraine, he remarked. “A new fact, underlined by some participants in the committee, is that scrap demand has now started to come from countries like Mexico and Egypt, which will further affect the availability of exports from the traditional suppliers,” Mr. Meimaroglu said.

Wilhelm Alff, the chairman of the IREPAS traders committee, evaluated the market situation stating that the supply-demand imbalance still exists and will continue in the short to medium term, despite quite low capacity utilization levels in Europe, especially in southern Europe. The traders remarked that in China, although some outdated capacities are being closed for environmental purposes, they are being replaced by larger and more advanced mills. Regarding the ongoing antidumping duty cases in the US in relation to Turkish and Mexican rebar, mixed opinions were expressed by traders, with no significant margin anticipated for Turkish rebar suppliers. Traders believe that protectionist practices will continue to be adopted.

Mr. Alff also mentioned that long steel product imports are expected to decline in the Algerian market with the commissioning of new capacities, including the new rebar mill of Turkish steel group Tosyali, which began production in June 2013. Lower long steel product demand in this country will affect Spanish and Italian rebar suppliers negatively, as Algeria is the main export market for southern European long steel mills.

Representing the IREPAS billet suppliers committee, Margarita Zvezda from Russian steel producer Evraz, stated that Ukraine and Russia – the largest steel billet suppliers – witnessed stable billet supplies in 2013, with Evraz permanently stopping a plate mill and thus having additional ~400,000 mt of steel for exports in the form of square billet, while Ural Steel shutting OHF production.

Ms. Zvezda remarked that Turkey, a long-standing net billet exporter, has become a net importer of steel billet last year, firstly because Turkish steel billet producers are mainly EAF-based and higher scrap prices harmed these producers’ cost-effectiveness, causing them to lose market share in export markets to CIS mills, which are mostly BOF-based and have cheaper iron ore supplies. Secondly, Turkish steel producers have preferred to import cheaper steel billets from the CIS instead of producing crude steel to cast steel billets. The IREPAS billet suppliers committee does not foresee any change in this situation in the mid-term, as some CIS billet suppliers are expected to continue sacrifice their margins in order to provide discounts to undercut Turkish steel billet prices.

Ms. Zvezda also stated that Iran had been a major player in the Middle Eastern steel billet market until international sanctions were imposed, adding that, if political issues are resolved, it will again become an important steel billet importer. However, she went on to say, this situation is not expected to last long, as Iran is close to becoming self-sufficient in terms of steel billet supplies after the commissioning of ongoing steel billet capacity projects.

As regards Egypt, Ms. Zvezda stated that Egypt has not experienced a genuine recovery in long steel consumption with significant overcapacity being in place, while a big portion of existing long steel demand is coming from illegal construction sites, a risky situation if the government decides to undertake measures, she said, going on to state that, with the commissioning of the steel billet plant project of Egyptian Steel, the country’s demand for steel billets is foreseen to decline.

Kim Marti, IREPAS chairman and chairman of the rebar and wire rod suppliers committee, said that long steel products demand in GCC countries is quite strong as usual, especially in Qatar. Local governments’ infrastructure spending, most importantly on housing, is providing support for higher demand. Stability is foreseen to continue in these countries which have solid budgets. However, he added, some new rebar capacities are coming on stream in the Middle East and some capacity expansions are also being carried out.

Mr. Marti stated that significant differences are seen between the north and south of Europe in terms of long steel product demand. In Germany, he said, residential construction is supporting long steel demand and in Poland EU funds worth €1.6 billion are expected to be spent mostly on infrastructure investments. Long steel demand in Spain and Portugal is not anticipated to decline further after the severe contraction in past years, though Italian long steel demand may decrease by a further 10 percent this year, Mr. Marti warned. Greece, surprisingly, is foreseen to witness some improvement in long steel demand, with some infrastructure investments.

After the municipal elections, the Turkish economy is expected to regain stability, the IREPAS chairman said, adding that Turkish rebar producers are not expecting high antidumping margins as a result of the ongoing trade case in the US against Turkish rebar.

To conclude, Mr. Marti stated that financial restrictions are limiting opportunities for rebar and wire rod producers, while providing some opportunities for traders.

Mr. Marti emphasized that the continuation of free trade is unquestionable, though adding that steel producers may need to take measures against unfair trade practices. He also added that credit restrictions are limiting the pace of trade in the steel industry, as the steel business is seen risky by finance providers.

19:00 – 23:00 Welcome Cocktail at Hilton Diagonal Mar Barcelona
March 31st, Monday 
09:00 – 09:30 Registration desk opens at the conference area

09:30 – 10:45

• Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS – Kim Marti
• SESSION ONE – The Unbalanced Post Recession
  Keynote Speaker:
  Xavier Sala-i-Martin, J. and M. Grossman Professor of Economics at Columbia University in New York / Chief Economic Advisor of the Center for Global Competitiveness and Performance at the World Economic Forum in Davos

10:45 – 11:15 Networking Break

11:15 – 12:30

SESSION TWO – Global Trends, Key Points and Critical Issues

• Long steel products market / Franc Cardona, Grupo Celsa
• US market coverage with focus on recent trade cases / Bernd Neuenkirchen, C&F International
• Steel trends and expectations: MENA and GCC / Bhaskar Dutta, Al Jazeera Steel Products
• Overview of Turkey’s steel exports and main issues faced / Namik Ekinci, Turkish Steel Exporters’ Association

12:30 – 14:00 Lunch Break

14:00 – 17:00 IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:00–15:45 Wire Rod & Rebar Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
  14:00–15:45 Billet Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
  16:00–17:00 Producers Committee (by invitation only)
  14:30–17:00 Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
  14:30–17:00 Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

 18:00 – 18:30 Busses leave for Gala Dinner Venue – Camp Nou

19:00 – 20:00 Camp Nou Corporate Tour
20:00 – 20:30 Presentation by Jordi Moix, FC Barcelona Board Member
20:30 – 22:00 Gala Dinner
22:00 Departure

April 1st, Tuesday 

09:30 – 11:00 SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen
Committees:
- Wire Rod & Rebar Suppliers Committee
- Billet Suppliers Committee
- Producers Committee
- Raw Material Suppliers Committee
- Traders Committee

*All presentations will be in English