There were 96 representatives from 36 different producers among the 302 registered delegates from a total of 41 different countries. There were also 75 registrations representing 43 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Ioannis Manessis, chairman of IREPAS, stated that the global steel industry is operating in an increasingly challenging environment characterized by geopolitical conflicts, shifting trade flows, higher costs and relatively weak demand. According to the IREPAS chairman, the deteriorating situations in the Black Sea and Iran are having a significant impact on steel markets and international trade. Damage to ports and vessels’ reluctance to sail have made trade in the Black Sea extremely difficult, while attacks on bulk carriers and oil tankers have also created significant challenges for trade in the Middle East.

Against this backdrop, energy prices, including oil, natural gas and coal prices, have increased, in some cases significantly. Manessis noted that these increases are raising costs for steel producers, scrap suppliers and shipping companies, affecting the entire steel value chain.

At the same time, the industry is facing an increasingly restrictive global trade environment. The IREPAS chairman highlighted the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its safeguard measures implemented after July 1, US tariffs, scrap trade restrictions in around 40 countries worldwide and other trade measures affecting steel markets. He also pointed to China’s recent efforts to prevent its steel industry from offering products at excessively low or loss-making prices, stating that these measures already appear to be having an impact on the market.

Meanwhile, higher interest rates are putting additional pressure on consumers as authorities seek to contain inflation. Manessis stated that, apart from demand related to the expansion of artificial intelligence data centers, global demand for steel products remains relatively weak.

According to the IREPAS chairman, demand is therefore not currently determining the direction of the market, with rising costs instead becoming the key factor. As a result, steel prices are increasing in almost all markets despite weak demand. Manessis added that, although the current environment remains difficult to navigate, higher prices are allowing trade to continue and creating opportunities for market participants.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Producers at IREPAS: Trade barriers and overcapacity are fragmenting global steel markets

Steel producers remain cautiously optimistic despite challenging international trade conditions, while energy and raw material costs are expected to continue putting pressure on mills at least through the end of the winter, according to Alex Gordienko, export director at Spain’s CELSA Group, speaking on behalf of the producers committee.

Mr. Gordienko said that regions face different challenges, with European producers particularly affected by energy-related issues. Nevertheless, producers continue to see underlying domestic demand and remain somewhat more optimistic than current market conditions might suggest.

India expected to remain focused on domestic market

Commenting on the rise in Indian steel demand and the decline in the country’s export activity, Gordienko pointed to significant infrastructure investments and rapidly growing construction demand, while India’s steel production capacity is also increasing. He said he expects India to remain primarily focused on its domestic market over the next five years.

Regarding Southeast Asian suppliers, Gordienko said they will remain competitive internationally, though increasingly selective about their target markets. Their presence is expected to remain significant in the MENA region, while access to the EU will be more difficult due to quota restrictions.

EU needs favorable investment conditions as well as trade protection

Turning to Europe, Gordienko said there is significant potential demand from housing, electricity generation, data centers and defense investments, as well as the replacement of aging infrastructure. However, bureaucratic barriers are preventing these needs from translating into actual construction and investment.

According to Gordienko, the EU has become increasingly effective at protecting its steel market, but less successful in creating economic conditions that make steel production and investment attractive. Safeguards and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) provide some protection, but cannot compensate for issues such as insufficient or expensive energy supply.

Overcapacity and trade barriers to fragment global markets

Addressing global overcapacity, Gordienko said governments increasingly want to preserve domestic steelmaking capacity even when mills struggle to generate profits, while new capacity continues to emerge in several regions.

He said he sees no realistic global mechanism capable of effectively regulating excess capacity. As trade barriers increase, surplus steel will have access to fewer export destinations, increasing the pressure on markets that remain open. At the same time, protected markets could experience temporary shortages and price increases despite substantial global excess capacity.

Gordienko said fragmentation is also changing the traditional steel market cycle. Instead of one broadly synchronized global cycle, individual regions are increasingly likely to follow their own cycles as trade barriers, domestic policies and local market conditions gain importance.

Looking ahead to 2027, he identified fragmentation as a key issue, encompassing overcapacity, Chinese exports and growing trade barriers, with market participants increasingly needing to focus on developments in their own domestic markets.

Traders at IREPAS: Trade barriers and freight risks make steel trade more regional

F.D. Baysal, chairman and CEO of SEBA Group of Companies and chairman of the traders committee, shared the committee’s assessment of current market conditions, highlighting weakening demand, regulatory pressures and rising geopolitical risks.

Mr. Baysal stated that steel trade is becoming more regional as tariffs, freight risks and additional import requirements complicate transactions. Presenting the findings of the IREPAS traders committee, Baysal said China had reduced steel production but continued to export large volumes. He stated that export licensing and VAT-related changes had altered the composition of its exports, with a greater share of long products. Continued weakness in China’s real estate sector has left surplus production seeking overseas markets, he added.

Freight risks complicate steel trade in Middle East

Baysal described freight conditions as volatile, stating that shipping from Asia to Europe has remained relatively soft, while finding vessels for shipments to and from the Middle East has become difficult. War-risk premiums and higher bunker costs have added to the challenges faced by traders.

Regarding trade in the GCC region, Baysal said decisions can no longer be based solely on the price of steel and its shipping cost. Traders must also consider insurance, changing transit times and uncertainty over whether cargoes will arrive as planned. He stated that he expects logistics to remain a significant issue. Baysal said geopolitical freight premiums are not necessarily permanent. What has changed more durably, in his view, is the need to account for geopolitical risks in every transaction. Shipping routes, additional premiums and the working capital tied up in delayed cargoes have become part of traders’ calculations.

High interest rates weigh on US steel demand

Baysal pointed out that higher interest rates are weighing on US commercial and residential construction and on demand for steel products used in those sectors. However, infrastructure, data centers, energy projects and manufacturing investment continue to consume steel. He noted that large infrastructure and data center projects are supplied mainly by domestic mills.

Against this background, Baysal said traders favor disciplined purchasing and low inventories. Back-to-back transactions are more attractive than speculative stockholding when financing is expensive and tariffs, quotas, freight and regional market conditions can change.

Capacity-demand gap and trade measures seen as interconnected risks

Although steel remains a cyclical industry, Baysal said its underlying trade structure has changed. Capacity growth, trade barriers and geopolitical risks have fragmented the market, requiring traders to identify opportunities in individual regions rather than rely on price differences alone.

Looking ahead to 2027, he described the gap between steel capacity and demand, and the trade measures that may result from it, as interconnected risks.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Rising costs and trade barriers put pressure on raw material flows

Jens Björkman from Stena Metal International and chairman of the raw material suppliers committee shared the committee’s assessments of current dynamics and difficulties in global raw material markets during a panel session.

Mr. Björkman stated that higher freight, energy and financing costs, together with potential restrictions on scrap exports, are putting pressure on the steelmaking raw material trade. Presenting the findings of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee, Björkman said coking coal prices had risen by around 60 percent within a few months. He also pointed to strong raw material demand in the US during the first part of 2026 and growth in India. In Europe, in contrast, high energy costs have added to the challenges facing the industry, he stated.

Low Rhine water levels disrupt European scrap and steel movements

Björkman said the low water levels of the River Rhine, comparable to those seen in 2018, have disrupted movements of scrap and steel in Europe. Some material has remained in inventories instead of reaching its destinations, causing business to be postponed. He described European steel capacity utilization of around 65 percent as unsustainable.

Regarding coking coal, Björkman said the summer price surge was driven particularly by conditions in China and had also lifted Australian prices. Chinese demand has since eased somewhat, he said. Although he cited an increase of around six percent in Indian production this year, he does not expect it to offset weaker Chinese demand. Björkman therefore sees a slightly negative outlook for coking coal prices in the coming months and said the earlier surge may prove temporary in the short term.

Trade disruptions affect scrap purchases in India and Pakistan

Turning to import scrap markets in India and Pakistan, Björkman said disruptions to trade flows have had a substantial effect on purchasing. Buyers who previously could purchase smaller quantities with shorter lead times have had to consider larger volumes and longer delivery periods. Higher freight and financing costs make those changes more difficult, he explained. He added that demand for European material has increased.

The chairman of the raw material suppliers committee expressed concern about proposed changes affecting EU shipments of ferrous and non-ferrous material to non-OECD countries. North Africa and South Asia are significant and consistent buyers of European material, he said. In his view, restrictions could affect both their ability to purchase scrap from the EU and recycling activity within Europe.

Financing raw material trade has also become more difficult throughout the supply chain, according to Björkman. Higher interest rates, freight costs and raw material prices are encouraging companies to keep lead times short, buy according to immediate requirements and avoid accumulating large inventories.

Scrap to remain principal raw material for EAF-based producers

On the future raw material mix for electric arc furnace-based producers, Björkman said scrap will remain the principal input. HBI and DRI can supplement scrap, but he does not expect them to replace it. Their cost is a constraint in many regions, while energy availability influences where they can be produced. Björkman also questioned whether Europe could depend on supplies from the GCC given regional and political uncertainties.

Trade barriers seen as key risk for scrap market in 2027

Björkman said Europe has sufficient scrap for its own steelmakers and has opposed adding further restrictions and administrative requirements to its export trade.

Asked about the risks facing the market in 2027, he identified increasing trade barriers as a particular concern for scrap suppliers. Björkman expects trade to become more regional, with European exporters facing additional requirements.

The commission has found that the expiration of the antidumping measures in respect of exports of rebar from China would lead, or would be likely to lead, to a continuation of, or a recurrence of, the dumping and the material injury that the antidumping measures are intended to prevent. Accordingly, the commission has recommended that the duties continue and new duty rates for the parties subject to the review be revised as follows:

Baowu Group Echeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd

• Current rate of duty (%) : 19.0 combination
• New rate of duty (%) : Floor price

All other exporters

• Current rate of duty (%) : 19.0 combination
• New rate of duty (%) : 23.7 combination

The products, in various diameters up to and including 50 mm, currently fall under the following Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers

• 7213.10.00.42,
• 7214.20.00.47,
• 7227.90.10.69,
• 7227.90.90.01,
• 7227.90.90.02,
• 7227.90.90.04,
• 7228.30.10.70,
• 7228.30.90.40,
• 7228.60.10.72.

The commission has found that the given products exported from Indonesia, Malaysia (except for Southern Steel), Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam at dumped prices appear to have caused material injury to the Australian industry. In addition, the commission stated that Indonesia-based company Pt Ispat Panca Putera did not make sales of rebar to Australia in the given period.

The final dumping margins determined are at the table below.

Indonesia

• Pt Ispat Panca Putera : Did not export
• Pt Putra Baja Deli        : 1.3%

Malaysia

• Ann Joo Steel Berhad                           :  9.2%
• Southern Steel                                        : negative 0.1%
• Alliance Steel, Amsteel and Masteel  :  9.2%
• Others                                                       : 26.2 %

Thailand

• Tata Steel : 2.1%
• Others       : 6.7%

Turkey

• Çolakoğlu         : 7.1%
• Kaptan Demir : 9.1%
• Kroman Çelik  : 8.5%
• Others               : 36.4%

Vietnam

• Vina Kyoei        : 9.6%

The products currently fall under the codes 7214.20.00, 7228.30.10, 7228.30.90, and 7228.60.10.

The review, which was launched upon the application made by local producer InfraBuild, covered the period between October 1, 2023 and September 30, 2024. The commission has found that the expiration of the antidumping measures in respect of exports of rebar from South Korea and Spain would lead, or would be likely to lead, to a continuation of, or a recurrence of, the dumping and the material injury that the antidumping measures are intended to prevent.

Accordingly, the commission recommended that the duties continue and new duty rates for the parties subject to the review be revised as follows:

South Korea

1. Daehan Steel Co., Ltd
   • Current rate of duty : 4.7%
   • New rate of duty : 2.3%
2. Dongkuk Steel Mill Co., Ltd
   • Current rate of duty : Floor price
   • New rate of duty : 2.5%
3. Other exporters
   • Current rate of duty : 8.5%
   • New rate of duty : 12.0%

Spain

1. Compañía Española de Laminación, S.L. (CELSA)
   • Current rate of duty : 9.4%
   • New rate of duty : 12.4%
2. Other exporters except Nervacero S.A.
   • Current rate of duty : 11.8%
   • New rate of duty : 15.0%

The given products in various diameters up to and including 50 mm are currently classified under the following codes in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule

• 7213.10.00.42,
• 7214.20.00.47,
• 7227.90.10.69,
• 7227.90.90.01,
• 7227.90.90.02,
• 7227.90.90.04,
• 7228.30.10.70,
• 7228.30.90.40,
• 7228.60.10.72

The commission has found that the given products exported from Malaysia (except for Southern Steel), Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam (except for Hoa Phat) at dumped prices appear to have caused material injury to the Australian industry. In addition, the commission stated that Indonesia-based companies Pt Ispat Panca Putera and Pt Putra Baja Deli did not make sales of rebar to Australia or exported with negligible dumped margins in the given period.

Accordingly, preliminary dumping margins are determined at

• 9.2 percent for Malaysia-based Alliance Steel, Amsteel Mills, Ann Joo Steel, Malaysia Steel Works
• 26.2 percent for all other Malaysian companies;
• 3.1 percent for Thailand-based Tata Steel Manufacturing (Thailand) Public Company Limited
• 6.7 percent for all other Thai exporters;
• 7.7 percent for Turkey-based Colakoglu Metalurji A.S,
• 8.6 percent for Turkey-based Kroman Celik Sanayii A.Ş.,
• 9.1 percent for Turkey-based Kaptan Demir Celik Endustrisi ve Ticaret A.Ş.
• 36.4 percent for all other Turkish producers;
• 9.5 percent for Vietnam-based Tung Ho Steel Vietnam Corporation, VAS Group Nghi Son Joint Stock Company and Vina Kyoei Steel Company,
• 17.3 percent for all other Vietnamese exporters.

The products currently fall under the codes 7214.20.00, 7228.30.10, 7228.30.90, and 7228.60.10.

The final report for the investigation, which covers the period between July 1, 2023 and June 30, 2024, will be published on December 18, 2025, instead of November 19, 2025.

The products, in various diameters up to and including 50 mm, subject to the investigation are classified under the Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers 7214.20.00, 7228.30.10, 7228.30.90, and 7228.60.10.

The final report for the investigation, which covers the period between April 1, 2024 and March 31, 2025, will be published on February 23, 2026, instead of October 21, 2025. The current antidumping measures, which were initially imposed in April 2016, stand at 33.1 percent for all Chinese exporters.

The given products with a diameter of less than 14 mm are currently classified under the following codes in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule 7213.91.00.44 and 7227.90.90.02.

Australia’s Antidumping Commission has announced that it has extended the due date to publish the final results of the antidumping (AD) investigation on imports of rebar from China launched in May this year. The extension is based on the delays completing verification of relevant data.

The final report for the investigation, which covers the period between April 1, 2024 and March 31, 2025, will be published on February 9, 2026, instead of October 7, 2025.

The products, in various diameters up to and including 50 mm, subject to the investigation are classified under the foloowing Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers

• 7213.10.00.42,
• 7214.20.00.47,
• 7227.90.10.69,
• 7227.90.90.01,
• 7227.90.90.02,
• 7227.90.90.04,
• 7228.30.10.70,
• 7228.30.90.40,
• 7228.60.10.72.

The investigation was launched at the exporter’s request and covers the period between April 1, 2024, and March 31, 2025. The commission is expected to complete its recommendation report by September 15, 2025, at the latest, and to submit the final ruling report to Australia’s Minister for Industry and Science of Australia by October 28, 2025, at the latest.

Currently, Baowu Group Echeng is subject to the country-wide duty rate of 19.0 percent as outlined in the review on December 24, 2020.

The products subject to the investigation are classified under the following Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers

• 7213.10.00
• 7214.20.00
• 7227.90.10
• 7227.90.90
• 7228.30.90
• 7228.30.10
• 7228.60.10

The Antidumping Commission is expected to make a recommendation to the Minister of Industry, Science and Technology based on the outcome of the inquiry no later than October 21, 2025. The given products with a diameter of less than 14 mm are currently classified under the following codes in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule 7213.91.00.44 and 7227.90.90.02.