There were 99 representatives from 41 different producers among the 386 registered delegates from a total of 49 different countries. There were also 86 registrations representing 41 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Ioannis Manessis, chairman of IREPAS, said that two major conflicts – one in Ukraine and the other in Iran — have consequences for global trade in general and serious repercussions for the industry in particular. He said steel trade has been affected by both demand destruction and supply disruptions, as well as by elevated energy costs, higher freight rates and the practical difficulty of securing vessels on time to transport materials.

Mr Manessis added that protectionism continues to intensify at the same time. IREPAS chairman also said that real demand in the global long products sector remains subdued while geopolitical tensions have driven up freight, energy, and raw material costs. Combined with some degree of inventory replenishment, this has supported higher prices he concluded.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Tighter supply, geopolitics reshape global scrap market

Speaking at the panel session, Jens Björkman from Stena Metal International and also chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, shared the committee’s assessments of the current dynamics and difficulties in the global raw material markets. Mr. Björkman highlighted significant shifts in global market dynamics over the past year, pointing to tighter supply conditions, changing trade flows and increasing geopolitical influence on pricing and demand. One of the key developments has been the slowdown in Chinese steel output, with March production falling to the lowest monthly level in six years. This decline, linked to weaker margins and stricter controls, has supported sentiment in other regions, while iron ore prices have remained relatively firm at $105-110/mt due to supply-side constraints. India continues to stand out as a major growth market, supported by strong domestic sponge iron production. This has reduced its reliance on scrap imports, although the country could be an attractive destination, based on freight costs and pricing conditions.

The chairman of the raw material suppliers committee stated that, in Europe, safeguard measures and regulatory frameworks have reinforced protectionist dynamics, supporting intra-regional scrap demand. However, concerns persist over high energy costs and the risk of stagflation, which could weigh on longer-term demand. In the United States, stronger domestic steel production has boosted internal demand for raw materials. At the same time, the attractiveness of scrap exports has declined, particularly for high-quality grades, as supply increasingly shifts toward domestic consumption.

Mr. Björkman pointed out that Turkey has seen improved sentiment, supported by stronger steel production and demand. Reduced semis supply from Iran has increased reliance on scrap imports, pushing prices to around $410/mt, an annual high. Rising freight costs, driven by higher bunker fuel prices and disruptions of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, have further supported pricing.

Mr. Björkman emphasized that there is no global surplus of scrap supply, as scrap continues to be steadily consumed. Europe exports around 19-20 million mt annually, reflecting limited domestic demand growth, but future availability may tighten due to increasing EAF adoption and regulatory constraints. Traditional importers in the Middle East may face challenges as scrap availability tightens in Europe and the US. Meanwhile, he noted, growing scrap generation and processing capacity in Asia, particularly in China and India, could gradually reshape global trade flows.

Mr. Björkman said that increasing regulatory requirements, particularly EU waste shipment rules, are expected to drive investment in sorting and processing. At the same time, tighter credit conditions and reduced availability of trade finance are adding complexity to global scrap trade. He went on to say that, despite strong pricing and demand conditions, the market outlook remains uncertain. Energy prices, economic growth and geopolitical developments continue to pose risks, while elevated oil prices at around $110 per barrel are still considered manageable for now. However, in conclusion, he commented that any deterioration in demand or purchasing power could quickly shift the market into a more challenging phase.

Traders at IREPAS: Geopolitical tensions and higher costs disrupt steel trade flows

Speaking during the panel session, Wilhelm Alff, director at Duferco and chairman of the traders committee, shared the committee’s assessment of current market conditions, highlighting weakening demand, regulatory pressures and rising geopolitical risks. Mr. Alff reminded that crude steel production in China reached around 960 million mt in 2025, while data from the first quarter of 2026 indicate that output may decline further or at best remain stable, with no clear signs of growth. In China, the sharpest drop was observed in the rebar segment, in which production fell by 12 percent, reflecting the ongoing downturn in the construction sector. The only improvement in China was the growth of more than 10 percent in iron ore inventories, mainly due to strategic stock building, highlighting the disconnect between raw material positioning and weak end-user demand.

This weakness in demand is particularly evident in Europe, where the overall economic outlook remains poor. Public spending is increasingly being redirected toward defense and social support rather than infrastructure, especially in Germany, limiting the recovery potential for steel consumption. The committee also pointed out that existing production capacity in the EU continues to exceed demand, noting that even prolonged production stoppages by major producers have had little visible impact on the market. A key concern for traders remains the implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The committee chairman emphasized that, in the current environment, traders are advised to use default emission values when calculating CBAM costs in order to avoid risks, although this approach increases cost exposure. Uncertainty surrounding calculation methods and verification procedures continues to complicate transactions, making it essential to involve producers and clearly define contract terms.

In addition, recent changes to the EU safeguard system have added further pressure. Quotas have been reduced by nearly 50 percent, while out-of-quota duties may rise to as high as 50 percent. Market participants criticized the lack of adjustment in country-specific quotas, even where suppliers have not delivered material for extended periods. As a result, portions of the quota system remain effectively unusable, further tightening supply and negatively affecting buyers and end-users in the region. Against this backdrop, traders also highlighted the growing impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. According to Mr. Alff, escalating tensions have tightened raw material supply chains and pushed costs higher, significantly slowing trading activity. Mills are increasingly relying on short-term sourcing strategies and opportunistic cargoes, while additional costs for transporting billets overland from Omani ports are estimated at around $40/mt. Severe port congestion is further complicating trade flows, making execution increasingly difficult. Despite these disruptions, the committee believes that the current situation is still being treated as temporary rather than structural. However, logistical constraints, especially in key maritime routes, continue to limit cargo movements and add uncertainty to global trade.

Commenting on global trade flows, Mr. Alff noted that exporters are likely to face growing challenges in accessing traditional markets. Tightening EU quotas and rising protectionism are forcing suppliers to seek alternative destinations, though options are becoming increasingly limited as more countries introduce similar trade barriers. Africa is expected to remain a key growth market in the medium term, supported by rising imports from Asia, particularly China, although the expansion of local production capacity and potential protectionist measures could gradually slow this trend.

Regarding China, the committee expects semi-finished steel exports to remain at elevated levels but under tighter control, as the Chinese authorities are likely to manage trade flows more actively to avoid another sharp surge. While the ongoing crisis in the Gulf region could support demand for Chinese material, its impact will largely depend on logistical conditions and the ability to move cargoes efficiently.

Looking at other regions, market conditions in the US and Latin America were described as relatively stable, with the US benefiting from solid demand driven by public infrastructure projects.

Overall, the traders committee underlined that the global steel market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty, shaped by weak demand in key regions, regulatory changes and geopolitical risks. In such an environment, Alff concluded that it is extremely difficult to predict price trends, emphasizing that market participants will need to continuously monitor developments and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Producers at IREPAS: Global steel sector under pressure from costs and weak growth

Alex Gordienko, export director of Spain’s CELSA Group and representing the producers committee, stated, in sharing the producers committee’s findings, that the global steel industry is facing increasing pressure from rising costs, weak economic growth and regulatory complexity. He noted that uncertainty remains high, particularly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Mr. Gordienko indicated that raw material prices have risen significantly, while the ability to pass these costs on to customers remains limited. As a result, margins across the industry are under sustained pressure, with finished steel prices failing to fully reflect higher input costs.

Mr. Gordienko noted that economic growth remains subdued across many regions, limiting the potential for a meaningful recovery in steel demand. He warned that current conditions reflect a fragile balance, with demand holding but lacking strong momentum. He described energy markets as highly volatile, largely due to tensions in the Middle East, adding that there is no clear timeline for a resolution and that a prolonged conflict could significantly worsen market conditions.

Mr. Gordienko went on to state that trade policy remains a key theme, with the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at the center of discussions.

CBAM is seen as a mechanism that will gradually level carbon costs globally, encouraging countries such as Turkey, China and India to develop their own carbon pricing systems.

He said that, while CBAM is not expected to trigger immediate price changes, producers anticipate a medium-term disruption. By 2027, mills with verified emissions data are expected to gain a competitive advantage, as buyers increasingly prioritize suppliers able to provide reliable carbon data. Currently, only a limited number of suppliers, particularly in Japan and South Korea, are fully prepared for these requirements.

Meanwhile, the other restrictive factor, he pointed out, is that a new quota system stricter than the EU’s framework is expected to be introduced in the UK.

Mr. Gordienko commented that logistical challenges are adding further pressure, particularly in the Middle East, where port congestion is disrupting cargo flows. Limited truck availability and rising freight costs, driven by higher bunker fuel prices and fuel shortages, are increasing delivery costs for producers. He also stated that production disruptions in Iran have significantly affected global semis supply. Publicly available information indicates that facilities representing around 10 million mt of capacity have been heavily damaged, with recovery timelines ranging from six to 12 months. Iran exported approximately 3 million mt of semis in 2025, with around 75 percent directed to Asia. The disruption has contributed to increased Chinese semi-finished exports, particularly in March, as China moved to fill the supply gap. In the meantime, diesel shortages in Europe and transportation constraints are further amplifying cost pressures, with freight rates rising faster than oil prices.

On the raw materials side, Gordienko stated that availability remains a structural constraint. European producers, heavily reliant on scrap for electric arc furnace-based production, face limited flexibility in switching to alternative inputs such as HBI due to high energy requirements. This suggests limited short-term changes in production routes.

Lastly, he shared his prediction regarding the market outlook. Despite relatively stable demand and pricing conditions, the overall outlook remains uncertain. In conclusion, he said that energy prices, geopolitical developments and cost pressures continue to pose significant risks, leaving the global steel industry in a fragile and unpredictable environment.

Day 1: Sunday, April 26, 2026

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Hotel Okura Amsterdam

Day 2: Monday, April 27, 2026

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

IREPAS Chairman: Ioannis Manessis, Principal, Hellenic Halyvourgia S.A

09:30 – 11:10                  SESSION ONE – Critical Changes in the Global Long Steel Markets and Macroeconomic Overview

- Long products market outlook

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group

- Macroeconomic Overview

- Patrice Ollivaud, Economist, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

 - Panel: Hedging ferrous metals to unlock commodity trade finance solutions

Moderator: Alberto Xodo, Product Specialist (Steel & Nickel), LME
John Short, CEO, Boomer Commodities
Phillip Price, Founder, Pool 

11:10 – 11:40 Networking break

11:40 – 13:10 SESSION TWO – Global Steel Market Outlook and CBAM Impact

- Hydrogen-based DRI: Front Runner or Also Ran?

Dr. John Atherton, Secretary General, International Iron Metallics Association

- CBAM Unlocked: Risk, Opportunity, and the Road Ahead

Jack Laing, Carbon Specialist, CarbonChain

- Chinese Steel Outlook for 2026

Yuan Wenjiong, President, Dao Fortune

- Indian Steel Market Outlook 

Sumit Bhatia, Vice President – New Business Development & Strategy, ARS Steels

13:10 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, April 28, 2026

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

There were 140 representatives from 47 different producers among the 493 registered delegates from a total of 58 different countries. There were also 100 registrations representing 57 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that the supply and demand balance in the global long steel industry is becoming more and more unstable. Explaining that Chinese finished steel products are dominating most markets, he noted that the situation is close to what the market went through ten years ago and stressed that, if the Chinese continue in the same way, the global steel industry will suffer great damage.

The IREPAS chairman added that the markets are in a bearish mood and are holding back with a not so promising outlook.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Previous optimism for H2 postponed to 2025       

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the finding of the committee meeting on the general situation in the global steel and raw material markets, noting that the optimistic sentiments seen in spring this year for the second half of the year have been postponed until 2025. Emphasizing that iron ore prices are under pressure from lower production in China, he stated that slowing Chinese production could work in favor of the rest of the world in terms of reduced Chinese export volumes.

Looking at the EU, pointing out that scrap generation in the region has slowed down as the sales of downstream industries have decreased amid lower personal spendings in the region, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee noted that the lower scrap generation in Europe has led to scrap prices being stable at higher levels. He also commented that business activity in Germany, which is the main driver in the EU, is slowing down even though the year started with improvements in the construction and housing industries, the positive effects of which will be seen on the raw material side until the end of the year.

Regarding the situation in Turkey, Björkman said that the country has postponed scrap purchases during summer and autumn this year due to competitive alternative options of semi-finished products from Asia, especially China. He added that he expects Turkey to continue to purchase imports of billets, slabs and HRC, thus negatively affecting scrap prices.

Traders at IREPAS: Competitive Chinese billets pull Turkish mills away from scrap       

Wilhelm Alff, chairman of the traders committee, stated that China’s exports have been increasing constantly, with the country’s average monthly exports trending at 5.6 million mt in 2022, at 7.7 million mt in 2023 and expected to be around 8.7 million mt in 2024. Noting that China has been exporting semi-finished and finished steel products heavily at competitive prices, he stated that any surge in protectionist measures in reaction to this would just provide short-term relief, only changing product flow.

The traders committee chairman stated that, given the attractive prices of Chinese material, especially billet, Turkish mills are expected to continue to buy Chinese billet as an alternative to higher-priced scrap, putting pressure on scrap prices.

Regarding iron ore, Mr. Alff stated that rebar production in China has decreased amid destocking due to the switch to the new rebar standard, resulting in lower demand for iron ore. He said that iron ore stocks at Chinese ports currently stand at 149 million mt. Emphasizing the current spread between scrap and iron ore costs, Alff commented that everybody wants to be a blast furnace-based steel producer for the next six months.

Producers at IREPAS: Prospects for near future do not look bright

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, said that, since China is the main driving force behind the global steel industry, everybody is unfortunately taking a position according to what China is doing. He pointed out that China is shipping semis and finished steel products to almost everywhere in the world, thereby putting pressure on prices and creating a huge supply and demand imbalance, while it is becoming even tougher for everyone else to compete.

Sharing the findings of the producers committee with the conference participants, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that producers in GCC countries are a little more optimistic than those in other countries as their economies are moving in the right direction, amid new projects, in Saudi Arabia for example, which are creating demand in the market, with the construction and real estate sectors being the driving force in the GCC region. Looking at the EU, the chairman of the producers committee said that business has seemed to be at a standstill in the region for more than a year now and hardly any improvement is expected in the next six months or so. On the other hand, Turkey is stuck in terms of export opportunities, being pushed into a corner by various protectionist measures, while it cannot sell to some Asian countries which used to be its main export destinations for long products because of Chinese competition. Commenting on the global longs market in general, Cebecioğlu said, “The near future does not look bright. We will probably see the same trend unless China stops exporting.”

Turning to the current situation in China, the IREPAS chairman said that, besides reducing production, the Chinese will also have to boost domestic demand, which is slow given the problems in the Chinese real estate sector. He went on to say that just reducing production by itself will not be enough, the government should provide some stimulus program as well. Regarding Turkey’s billet imports as an alternative to scrap, he said that Turkish mills will buy less scrap, complementing their needs with billet imports from China, which means they will be producing less semis, and this situation may also exert some pressure on scrap prices.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Marriott Rive Gauche Hotel Paris

Day 2: Monday, September 16, 2024

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:30 – 11:00                   SESSION ONE – Global markets and CBAM impact

- Latest developments in the global steel market and recent trends in steelmaking capacity

Luciano Giua, Economist/Policy Analyst, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

- Navigating the EU CBAM: Financial impacts and strategies for cost mitigation

Louis Redshaw, Ceo/Founder, Redshaw Advisors Ltd

                                           SESSION TWO – ASEAN steelmarket outlook

Moderator: Anastasiia Kononenko, Head of Market Intelligence-Asian markets, SteelOrbis

Yeoh Wee Jin, Secretary General, South Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI)

11:00 – 11:30                     Networking break

11:30 – 12:30                    SESSION THREE – Macroeconomic overview

- Evaluation of economies – in EU, US, China globally

Wars and impacts of political crises
Predictions of possible scenarios for US elections

Daniel Gros, Professor, Bocconi University / Director, Bocconi University’s Institute for European Policy Making / Advisor, European Parliament

13:00 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, September 17, 2024

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the global long products market has recently been suffering from declining imports and exports and a lack of supply-demand balance.

The IREPAS chairman said the reduced production levels in 2022 have been carried over into 2023 and are able to satisfy actual consumption, which has resulted in an aversion to imported steel due to the lack of certainty, leading to a decline in the scope of international business.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Output cuts in EU to bring down scrap prices

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the committee meeting findings stating that the past few months have been challenging for the global steel market due to drastic price drops, higher energy prices and weak global demand.

Mr. Björkman pointed out that the energy crisis in the EU has eased, going back to pre-war levels and standing at a 10-year average, though high interest rates still remain a challenge. He said that there is a likelihood of production cuts ahead of the summer, which would bring down scrap prices and orders in the EU.

Regarding the potential consequences of the European Parliament’s recent revision of its Waste Shipment Regulation, Mr. Björkman stated that scrap shipments to non-OECD countries will be a major challenge, fortunately Turkey – which is a major destination for scrap supply – will not be affected. In addition, the committee chairman noted that within a five-year timeframe the EU will consume most of the scrap generated in the region itself since its steel production will shift to electric arc furnaces within the scope of green steel targets.

Aside from multiple challenges, Turkey is facing muted trade activities ahead of the approaching elections amid production cuts and weak demand for finished steel products, the committee chairman stated. He went on to say that once the election period is over Turkey is likely to see some pick-up in domestic business, though the demand in the local market will not be sufficient and so Turkey will have to try to export again. Regarding Turkey’s scrap demand, the committee chairman said that “a slower normal demand” is expected in the coming months.

Traders at IREPAS: Rough times for long steel industry         

Wilhelm Alff, chairman of the traders committee, said that the steel industry, especially the Turkish long steel industry, is going through very rough times amid weak domestic markets, high energy costs, a lot of trade cases, and new competition in the form of new players in the market such as Iran, India, China, the Middle East and Africa. Commenting on the Turkish market situation, the committee chairman said that areas which were previously reachable for Turkish long steel products are now getting less and less so, due to greater competition. He also drew attention to the fact that, as of March 31, Turkey had only used less than five percent of its EU rebar import quota, because of the reduction in EU steel demand and the increasing number of new mills in the region, for instance, the competitive offers from Oman and Egypt. He went on to say that, with the current market prices in the EU, which have been on a drastic downtrend since October last year and are at levels almost equal to import prices, buyers prefer domestic sourcing rather than waiting for late arrivals. The traders committee predicted that the EU quota situation will continue like this for at least another quarter.

Looking at China, Mr. Alff said that China’s tightening of its controls on overcapacity is likely to have a significant effect on market dynamics, resulting in decreased steel output which will support prices in turn. However, he added that this will also depend on how strictly these controls are implemented. The committee chairman stated that the anticipated demand in China failed to materialize after the New Year holidays and so it may be possible to see competitively-priced Chinese steel sold in the export markets. However, the extent to which this will happen depends on the level of demand in China and in the global market. He said that, if Chinese steel demand continues to be weaker than expected, Chinese suppliers may turn to the export markets, while China may face some obstacles due to trade measures.

Regarding the possible outcomes of the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism, Alff said that the approval of this mechanism is a significant move and it could face resistance from exporting countries such as China and India as they may consider these measures as unfair practice. He added that these countries may also respond with tariffs on European goods, which could lead to trade frictions. The committee chairman said that the eventual carbon border tax is likely to increase the cost of imported goods that have a heavy carbon footprint, which will result in difficulties for some countries as regards competing in the EU.

Producers at IREPAS: Falling energy costs and scrap prices may create opportunities   

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, pointed out that the steel industry has been experiencing challenging times amid inflation and rising interest rates, which pose a big problem for investors in making decisions about their investments. He also said that supply and demand are not balanced and that exports and imports are declining everywhere, while adding that capacity utilization rates are way below usual levels. All these factors put pressure on the market, he noted. However, he also pointed to some positive factors, saying that energy costs and scrap prices are coming down.

Commenting on Turkey, the committee chairman said that the country has lost its major traditional export markets and its leading position, adding that the countries to which Turkey used to export, like Egypt, the GCC and Indonesia, have become exporters themselves. Another obstacle facing Turkish exports are trade cases. It is difficult to sell to the US, Canada and the EU and it is impossible to sell to Singapore and Hong Kong. He stated that, with falling energy costs and scrap prices, Turkey may have the chance to do business again. Regarding the steel demand expected in Turkey’s southern region following the devastating earthquakes in February, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that the unfortunate disaster will create demand, not only for the steel industry, but also for downstream segments as well. However, he pointed out that the demand will be spread over years, adding that it is not going to come all at once like people have been saying.

Turning to China, Cebecioğlu said that the Chinese market has not picked up after the New Year holidays, while he indicated that Chinese traders are very aggressive and very much active in the export markets. The IREPAS chairman underlined that China affects all market players because of its big capacity and that the Chinese are exporting to every corner of the world, so “if they stick to reducing production, this might help”.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Four Seasons Hotel Bosphorus Istanbul

Day 2: Monday, May 30, 2022

09:00 – 09:15                   Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:15 – 10:00                    SESSION ONE: Critical changes in global long steel markets

- Long products market outlook

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group 

- Turkish steel industry overview

Dr. Veysel Yayan, Secretary General, Turkish Iron and Steel Producers’ Association (TISPA)

- The revision of the waste shipment regulation and its impacts on trade of steel scrap – a recyclers’ perspective

Olivier Francois, President, European Recycling Industries’ Confederation (EuRIC)

10:00 – 10:20                     Networking break

10:20 – 11:10                     SESSION TWO: Critical changes in global long steel markets – EU, Ukraine and China

- EU steel market outlook

• Outlook for EU economy and steel industry
• EU steel imports, the impact of safeguard measures on them, and perspectives on recent and future modifications of such measures in view of the ongoing war in Ukraine
• Impact of energy costs (natural gas/electricity) on EU-based EAFs and perspectives on the supply shortage in the EU

Alessandro Sciamarelli, Director of Economic Studies and Market Analysis, European Steel Association (EUROFER)

- Chinese steel market outlook

Huseyin Ocakci, Middle East General Manager, CIEC

- Ukrainian economy and steel industry: current situation and outlook (online presentation)

• Brief overview of the military situation and scenarios for its development.
• Overview of the Ukrainian economy: current situation and expectations.
• Estimated damage caused by the war to infrastructure and the economy as a whole.
• Ukrainian steel industry: supply and demand situation and outlook.
• Steel exports from Ukraine: risks and challenges.

Roman Perepelytsia, Head of Strategy and Business Development, Metinvest Holding

11:10 – 11:30                     Networking break

11:30 – 12:30                    SESSION THREE: Global economic developments and expectations

The Current State of Developed and Emerging Markets

Prof. Dr. Ozgur Demirtas, Chair Professor of Finance, Sabanci University 

12:30 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

19:30 – 23:00                   Gala dinner at Four Seasons Hotel Bosphorus

Day 3: Tuesday, May 31, 2022

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

The attendees of the virtual meeting will be able to watch the global long steel market presentation by Mr Alex Gordienko of Celsa and the panel discussion involving the chairmen of the IREPAS committees. The online event will also be an interactive experience which as always will give the attendees the opportunity to interact with steel market experts and executives from all the most prominent companies. Please follow the link to register.

Of the many deserving long-term contributors to the IREPAS community, several were awarded plaques at the gala dinner held at the 79th meeting in Istanbul, which marked the 35th anniversary of the foundation of IREPAS.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS emphasized that there is obvious confusion and uncertainty in the global long steel products market triggered by the announcement of new tariffs on steel imports by President Trump as a result of the Section 232 investigation in the US, the subsequent exemptions from these tariffs, and the resulting safeguard investigation announced in the EU. Mr. Cebecioglu added that it has become extremely difficult to make business decisions as the prevailing question in the markets is, “What’s going to happen next?”.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products and steel billets, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Chinese scrap exports not a long-term threat

Mr. Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, stated that since 2015 a rebound has been seen in commodities, as well as scrap, mainly driven by China. He added that most scrap suppliers are worried about the growth in Chinese scrap generation and that the shift in Chinese production to electric arc furnaces might not be quick enough to accommodate the rise in scrap supply. According to Mr. Björkman, there will no long-term exports of Chinese scrap, which will be used in the domestic industry as much as possible.

Mr. Björkman indicated that the EU has seen better-than-expected growth, while the US has performed very well with solid domestic market demand amid the Section 232 tariffs. The raw materials committee chairman said that there is still uncertainty in the market on account of protectionism. He said that, as the uncertainty caused by Section 232 is better for the US domestic market, the discussions of the tariff itself boosted domestic demand and steel production in the US even prior to the implementation of the tariff. Accordingly, he expects that the final decision might be delayed until after the June 1 deadline. Regarding the Turkish steel market, Mr. Björkman said that it is characterized by political uncertainty due to the early election, the weaker lira and shorter lead times.

The committee chairman concluded that, if there is a global trade war, then everybody will be a loser, adding that he does not believe the intentions are to start a trade war.

Traders at IREPAS: Chinese exports will be modest, if not absolutely absent

Mr. Wilhelm Alff, the chairman of the traders committee, said that the main topics discussed during the traders committee meeting were the tariffs in the US and the safeguard investigations launched in the EU and also lately in Turkey. He said he thinks that the EU will wait until the final announcement from the US to conclude its own investigation.

The traders committee chairman stated that, despite the 25 percent duty on imports, the US has to import rebar as they are not self-sufficient, though he also pointed out that Turkey, the biggest rebar exporter to the US, is unlikely to gain an exemption from the tariffs.

Regarding the outlook for Chinese exports, basis the reports that China will continue to close down unproductive and illegal plants and will shift production to electric arc furnaces, and that the EAF capacity they are going to build is about 40-50 million mt, while they will be reducing other capacity at the same time at a very similar rate, and there will be a surplus of 20 million mt, Mr. Alff said that while it might sound a lot for the EU, for example, is relatively small for China in terms of overall demand. The traders committee chairman said he thinks that the Chinese have learnt their lesson already, i.e., that the risk of antidumping duty is always there. He said that the Chinese are building new plants for their own consumption, adding that they will not be absolutely absent from the export scene but their contribution will be modest.

Steel Producers at IREPAS: Sentiment for rest of 2018 is very positive

Mr. Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS and also of the producers committee, said that at the producers committee meeting everyone agreed that there is demand in the long steel market but also obstacles, adding that the two main worries are what China will do and where this current protectionism will take us. He indicated that sentiment was very positive for the remainder of 2018.

Regarding the Section 232 extension, Mr. Cebecioglu said that there might be some further extensions to the Section 232 deadline in order to see what the other countries are going to do. He added that it is a dangerous game the US is playing, saying that everyone needs clarity. He also pointed out that with the tariffs the US is targeting a capacity utilization of 75 percent, though they will still need to import at this rate.

Mr. Cebecioglu stressed that these trade disputes are not sustainable, stating that they have to end somewhere. According to the IREPAS chairman, if the EU is exempt from the duties after June 1 and rest of the world is not, it will create a problem for Turks as a major exporter. However, he went on to say that, if everyone gets 25 percent, then Turkey will still have a chance to export rebar to the US. He also said that a 25 percent duty rate across the board would be more fair compared to quotas granted for some countries.

Mr. Cebecioglu also commented on the removal of the import duty on Turkish rebar, stating, “We have not seen a real threat at the moment but we know small volumes are coming to Turkey. As of now, there is a safeguard investigation in Turkey. We have to protect what is ours.”

Responding to a question about the graphite electrode shortage, the producers committee chairman said the shortage has been relieved to some extent, though the steel industry needs more and more electrodes due to the new electric arc furnaces being built. He also indicated that the cost of electrodes is rising also because of higher needle coke prices.

19:00 – 22:00      Welcome cocktail at Wyndham Grand Athens

September 25th, Monday

09:00 – 09:15      Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:15 – 10:30        SESSION ONE – Global economic outlook

- Global Economic and Market Developments

Vassilis Patikis, Piraeus Bank / Head, Economic Research & Investment Strategy

• Structural Themes for the Post Crisis Global Economy
• US, European and Chinese Cycles
• Market Implications

10:30 – 11:00 Networking break

11:00 – 12:30          SESSION TWO – Critical changes expected in global long steel markets

- Long product market outlook

Jose Angel Rey, Celsa Group / Commercial Director

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

- Latest situation on the North American steel market and short term outlook

Frank Bergren, Metal Partners International / Managing Director

• Key challenges and opportunities in the US long products market
• Section 232
• What’s next for the US market?

- Focus on China: Can China sustain current situation?

Li Xinchuang, China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute (MPI) / President – China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) / Vice Secretary General

• Outlook for Chinese steel market – raw materials and long products
• Is the current domestic demand level sustainable?
• Overcapacity and environmental pollution : Is China going to be able to keep the undertaking on capacity cuts?
• Electrode production and exports
• An outlook for 2018 including AD cases

12:30 – 14:30 Networking lunch

14:30 – 17:00        IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 17:00 Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 17:00 Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 17:00 Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

17:00 - 19:00         Cocktail Reception

September 26th, Tuesday

09:30 – 11:00             SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• Producers Committee
• Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• Traders Committee