There were 140 representatives from 47 different producers among the 493 registered delegates from a total of 58 different countries. There were also 100 registrations representing 57 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that the supply and demand balance in the global long steel industry is becoming more and more unstable. Explaining that Chinese finished steel products are dominating most markets, he noted that the situation is close to what the market went through ten years ago and stressed that, if the Chinese continue in the same way, the global steel industry will suffer great damage.

The IREPAS chairman added that the markets are in a bearish mood and are holding back with a not so promising outlook.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Previous optimism for H2 postponed to 2025       

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the finding of the committee meeting on the general situation in the global steel and raw material markets, noting that the optimistic sentiments seen in spring this year for the second half of the year have been postponed until 2025. Emphasizing that iron ore prices are under pressure from lower production in China, he stated that slowing Chinese production could work in favor of the rest of the world in terms of reduced Chinese export volumes.

Looking at the EU, pointing out that scrap generation in the region has slowed down as the sales of downstream industries have decreased amid lower personal spendings in the region, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee noted that the lower scrap generation in Europe has led to scrap prices being stable at higher levels. He also commented that business activity in Germany, which is the main driver in the EU, is slowing down even though the year started with improvements in the construction and housing industries, the positive effects of which will be seen on the raw material side until the end of the year.

Regarding the situation in Turkey, Björkman said that the country has postponed scrap purchases during summer and autumn this year due to competitive alternative options of semi-finished products from Asia, especially China. He added that he expects Turkey to continue to purchase imports of billets, slabs and HRC, thus negatively affecting scrap prices.

Traders at IREPAS: Competitive Chinese billets pull Turkish mills away from scrap       

Wilhelm Alff, chairman of the traders committee, stated that China’s exports have been increasing constantly, with the country’s average monthly exports trending at 5.6 million mt in 2022, at 7.7 million mt in 2023 and expected to be around 8.7 million mt in 2024. Noting that China has been exporting semi-finished and finished steel products heavily at competitive prices, he stated that any surge in protectionist measures in reaction to this would just provide short-term relief, only changing product flow.

The traders committee chairman stated that, given the attractive prices of Chinese material, especially billet, Turkish mills are expected to continue to buy Chinese billet as an alternative to higher-priced scrap, putting pressure on scrap prices.

Regarding iron ore, Mr. Alff stated that rebar production in China has decreased amid destocking due to the switch to the new rebar standard, resulting in lower demand for iron ore. He said that iron ore stocks at Chinese ports currently stand at 149 million mt. Emphasizing the current spread between scrap and iron ore costs, Alff commented that everybody wants to be a blast furnace-based steel producer for the next six months.

Producers at IREPAS: Prospects for near future do not look bright

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, said that, since China is the main driving force behind the global steel industry, everybody is unfortunately taking a position according to what China is doing. He pointed out that China is shipping semis and finished steel products to almost everywhere in the world, thereby putting pressure on prices and creating a huge supply and demand imbalance, while it is becoming even tougher for everyone else to compete.

Sharing the findings of the producers committee with the conference participants, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that producers in GCC countries are a little more optimistic than those in other countries as their economies are moving in the right direction, amid new projects, in Saudi Arabia for example, which are creating demand in the market, with the construction and real estate sectors being the driving force in the GCC region. Looking at the EU, the chairman of the producers committee said that business has seemed to be at a standstill in the region for more than a year now and hardly any improvement is expected in the next six months or so. On the other hand, Turkey is stuck in terms of export opportunities, being pushed into a corner by various protectionist measures, while it cannot sell to some Asian countries which used to be its main export destinations for long products because of Chinese competition. Commenting on the global longs market in general, Cebecioğlu said, “The near future does not look bright. We will probably see the same trend unless China stops exporting.”

Turning to the current situation in China, the IREPAS chairman said that, besides reducing production, the Chinese will also have to boost domestic demand, which is slow given the problems in the Chinese real estate sector. He went on to say that just reducing production by itself will not be enough, the government should provide some stimulus program as well. Regarding Turkey’s billet imports as an alternative to scrap, he said that Turkish mills will buy less scrap, complementing their needs with billet imports from China, which means they will be producing less semis, and this situation may also exert some pressure on scrap prices.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Marriott Rive Gauche Hotel Paris

Day 2: Monday, September 16, 2024

09:15 – 09:30                  Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:30 – 11:00                   SESSION ONE – Global markets and CBAM impact

- Latest developments in the global steel market and recent trends in steelmaking capacity

Luciano Giua, Economist/Policy Analyst, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

- Navigating the EU CBAM: Financial impacts and strategies for cost mitigation

Louis Redshaw, Ceo/Founder, Redshaw Advisors Ltd

                                           SESSION TWO – ASEAN steelmarket outlook

Moderator: Anastasiia Kononenko, Head of Market Intelligence-Asian markets, SteelOrbis

Yeoh Wee Jin, Secretary General, South Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI)

11:00 – 11:30                     Networking break

11:30 – 12:30                    SESSION THREE – Macroeconomic overview

- Evaluation of economies – in EU, US, China globally

Wars and impacts of political crises
Predictions of possible scenarios for US elections

Daniel Gros, Professor, Bocconi University / Director, Bocconi University’s Institute for European Policy Making / Advisor, European Parliament

13:00 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

16:00 – 18:00                    Monday cocktail reception

Day 3: Tuesday, September 17, 2024

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, emphasized that the global long products market has recently been suffering from declining imports and exports and a lack of supply-demand balance.

The IREPAS chairman said the reduced production levels in 2022 have been carried over into 2023 and are able to satisfy actual consumption, which has resulted in an aversion to imported steel due to the lack of certainty, leading to a decline in the scope of international business.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Output cuts in EU to bring down scrap prices

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, summarized the committee meeting findings stating that the past few months have been challenging for the global steel market due to drastic price drops, higher energy prices and weak global demand.

Mr. Björkman pointed out that the energy crisis in the EU has eased, going back to pre-war levels and standing at a 10-year average, though high interest rates still remain a challenge. He said that there is a likelihood of production cuts ahead of the summer, which would bring down scrap prices and orders in the EU.

Regarding the potential consequences of the European Parliament’s recent revision of its Waste Shipment Regulation, Mr. Björkman stated that scrap shipments to non-OECD countries will be a major challenge, fortunately Turkey – which is a major destination for scrap supply – will not be affected. In addition, the committee chairman noted that within a five-year timeframe the EU will consume most of the scrap generated in the region itself since its steel production will shift to electric arc furnaces within the scope of green steel targets.

Aside from multiple challenges, Turkey is facing muted trade activities ahead of the approaching elections amid production cuts and weak demand for finished steel products, the committee chairman stated. He went on to say that once the election period is over Turkey is likely to see some pick-up in domestic business, though the demand in the local market will not be sufficient and so Turkey will have to try to export again. Regarding Turkey’s scrap demand, the committee chairman said that “a slower normal demand” is expected in the coming months.

Traders at IREPAS: Rough times for long steel industry         

Wilhelm Alff, chairman of the traders committee, said that the steel industry, especially the Turkish long steel industry, is going through very rough times amid weak domestic markets, high energy costs, a lot of trade cases, and new competition in the form of new players in the market such as Iran, India, China, the Middle East and Africa. Commenting on the Turkish market situation, the committee chairman said that areas which were previously reachable for Turkish long steel products are now getting less and less so, due to greater competition. He also drew attention to the fact that, as of March 31, Turkey had only used less than five percent of its EU rebar import quota, because of the reduction in EU steel demand and the increasing number of new mills in the region, for instance, the competitive offers from Oman and Egypt. He went on to say that, with the current market prices in the EU, which have been on a drastic downtrend since October last year and are at levels almost equal to import prices, buyers prefer domestic sourcing rather than waiting for late arrivals. The traders committee predicted that the EU quota situation will continue like this for at least another quarter.

Looking at China, Mr. Alff said that China’s tightening of its controls on overcapacity is likely to have a significant effect on market dynamics, resulting in decreased steel output which will support prices in turn. However, he added that this will also depend on how strictly these controls are implemented. The committee chairman stated that the anticipated demand in China failed to materialize after the New Year holidays and so it may be possible to see competitively-priced Chinese steel sold in the export markets. However, the extent to which this will happen depends on the level of demand in China and in the global market. He said that, if Chinese steel demand continues to be weaker than expected, Chinese suppliers may turn to the export markets, while China may face some obstacles due to trade measures.

Regarding the possible outcomes of the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism, Alff said that the approval of this mechanism is a significant move and it could face resistance from exporting countries such as China and India as they may consider these measures as unfair practice. He added that these countries may also respond with tariffs on European goods, which could lead to trade frictions. The committee chairman said that the eventual carbon border tax is likely to increase the cost of imported goods that have a heavy carbon footprint, which will result in difficulties for some countries as regards competing in the EU.

Producers at IREPAS: Falling energy costs and scrap prices may create opportunities   

Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, pointed out that the steel industry has been experiencing challenging times amid inflation and rising interest rates, which pose a big problem for investors in making decisions about their investments. He also said that supply and demand are not balanced and that exports and imports are declining everywhere, while adding that capacity utilization rates are way below usual levels. All these factors put pressure on the market, he noted. However, he also pointed to some positive factors, saying that energy costs and scrap prices are coming down.

Commenting on Turkey, the committee chairman said that the country has lost its major traditional export markets and its leading position, adding that the countries to which Turkey used to export, like Egypt, the GCC and Indonesia, have become exporters themselves. Another obstacle facing Turkish exports are trade cases. It is difficult to sell to the US, Canada and the EU and it is impossible to sell to Singapore and Hong Kong. He stated that, with falling energy costs and scrap prices, Turkey may have the chance to do business again. Regarding the steel demand expected in Turkey’s southern region following the devastating earthquakes in February, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that the unfortunate disaster will create demand, not only for the steel industry, but also for downstream segments as well. However, he pointed out that the demand will be spread over years, adding that it is not going to come all at once like people have been saying.

Turning to China, Cebecioğlu said that the Chinese market has not picked up after the New Year holidays, while he indicated that Chinese traders are very aggressive and very much active in the export markets. The IREPAS chairman underlined that China affects all market players because of its big capacity and that the Chinese are exporting to every corner of the world, so “if they stick to reducing production, this might help”.

19:00 – 22:00                   Welcome cocktail at Four Seasons Hotel Bosphorus Istanbul

Day 2: Monday, May 30, 2022

09:00 – 09:15                   Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:15 – 10:00                    SESSION ONE: Critical changes in global long steel markets

- Long products market outlook

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

Alexander Gordienko, Export Director, Celsa Group 

- Turkish steel industry overview

Dr. Veysel Yayan, Secretary General, Turkish Iron and Steel Producers’ Association (TISPA)

- The revision of the waste shipment regulation and its impacts on trade of steel scrap – a recyclers’ perspective

Olivier Francois, President, European Recycling Industries’ Confederation (EuRIC)

10:00 – 10:20                     Networking break

10:20 – 11:10                     SESSION TWO: Critical changes in global long steel markets – EU, Ukraine and China

- EU steel market outlook

• Outlook for EU economy and steel industry
• EU steel imports, the impact of safeguard measures on them, and perspectives on recent and future modifications of such measures in view of the ongoing war in Ukraine
• Impact of energy costs (natural gas/electricity) on EU-based EAFs and perspectives on the supply shortage in the EU

Alessandro Sciamarelli, Director of Economic Studies and Market Analysis, European Steel Association (EUROFER)

- Chinese steel market outlook

Huseyin Ocakci, Middle East General Manager, CIEC

- Ukrainian economy and steel industry: current situation and outlook (online presentation)

• Brief overview of the military situation and scenarios for its development.
• Overview of the Ukrainian economy: current situation and expectations.
• Estimated damage caused by the war to infrastructure and the economy as a whole.
• Ukrainian steel industry: supply and demand situation and outlook.
• Steel exports from Ukraine: risks and challenges.

Roman Perepelytsia, Head of Strategy and Business Development, Metinvest Holding

11:10 – 11:30                     Networking break

11:30 – 12:30                    SESSION THREE: Global economic developments and expectations

The Current State of Developed and Emerging Markets

Prof. Dr. Ozgur Demirtas, Chair Professor of Finance, Sabanci University 

12:30 – 14:30                    Networking lunch

14:30 – 16:30                    IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 16:30 IREPAS Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

19:30 – 23:00                   Gala dinner at Four Seasons Hotel Bosphorus

Day 3: Tuesday, May 31, 2022

10:00 – 11:30                   SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• IREPAS Producers Committee
• IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• IREPAS Traders Committee

The attendees of the virtual meeting will be able to watch the global long steel market presentation by Mr Alex Gordienko of Celsa and the panel discussion involving the chairmen of the IREPAS committees. The online event will also be an interactive experience which as always will give the attendees the opportunity to interact with steel market experts and executives from all the most prominent companies. Please follow the link to register.

Of the many deserving long-term contributors to the IREPAS community, several were awarded plaques at the gala dinner held at the 79th meeting in Istanbul, which marked the 35th anniversary of the foundation of IREPAS.

At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS emphasized that there is obvious confusion and uncertainty in the global long steel products market triggered by the announcement of new tariffs on steel imports by President Trump as a result of the Section 232 investigation in the US, the subsequent exemptions from these tariffs, and the resulting safeguard investigation announced in the EU. Mr. Cebecioglu added that it has become extremely difficult to make business decisions as the prevailing question in the markets is, “What’s going to happen next?”.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products and steel billets, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Chinese scrap exports not a long-term threat

Mr. Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, stated that since 2015 a rebound has been seen in commodities, as well as scrap, mainly driven by China. He added that most scrap suppliers are worried about the growth in Chinese scrap generation and that the shift in Chinese production to electric arc furnaces might not be quick enough to accommodate the rise in scrap supply. According to Mr. Björkman, there will no long-term exports of Chinese scrap, which will be used in the domestic industry as much as possible.

Mr. Björkman indicated that the EU has seen better-than-expected growth, while the US has performed very well with solid domestic market demand amid the Section 232 tariffs. The raw materials committee chairman said that there is still uncertainty in the market on account of protectionism. He said that, as the uncertainty caused by Section 232 is better for the US domestic market, the discussions of the tariff itself boosted domestic demand and steel production in the US even prior to the implementation of the tariff. Accordingly, he expects that the final decision might be delayed until after the June 1 deadline. Regarding the Turkish steel market, Mr. Björkman said that it is characterized by political uncertainty due to the early election, the weaker lira and shorter lead times.

The committee chairman concluded that, if there is a global trade war, then everybody will be a loser, adding that he does not believe the intentions are to start a trade war.

Traders at IREPAS: Chinese exports will be modest, if not absolutely absent

Mr. Wilhelm Alff, the chairman of the traders committee, said that the main topics discussed during the traders committee meeting were the tariffs in the US and the safeguard investigations launched in the EU and also lately in Turkey. He said he thinks that the EU will wait until the final announcement from the US to conclude its own investigation.

The traders committee chairman stated that, despite the 25 percent duty on imports, the US has to import rebar as they are not self-sufficient, though he also pointed out that Turkey, the biggest rebar exporter to the US, is unlikely to gain an exemption from the tariffs.

Regarding the outlook for Chinese exports, basis the reports that China will continue to close down unproductive and illegal plants and will shift production to electric arc furnaces, and that the EAF capacity they are going to build is about 40-50 million mt, while they will be reducing other capacity at the same time at a very similar rate, and there will be a surplus of 20 million mt, Mr. Alff said that while it might sound a lot for the EU, for example, is relatively small for China in terms of overall demand. The traders committee chairman said he thinks that the Chinese have learnt their lesson already, i.e., that the risk of antidumping duty is always there. He said that the Chinese are building new plants for their own consumption, adding that they will not be absolutely absent from the export scene but their contribution will be modest.

Steel Producers at IREPAS: Sentiment for rest of 2018 is very positive

Mr. Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS and also of the producers committee, said that at the producers committee meeting everyone agreed that there is demand in the long steel market but also obstacles, adding that the two main worries are what China will do and where this current protectionism will take us. He indicated that sentiment was very positive for the remainder of 2018.

Regarding the Section 232 extension, Mr. Cebecioglu said that there might be some further extensions to the Section 232 deadline in order to see what the other countries are going to do. He added that it is a dangerous game the US is playing, saying that everyone needs clarity. He also pointed out that with the tariffs the US is targeting a capacity utilization of 75 percent, though they will still need to import at this rate.

Mr. Cebecioglu stressed that these trade disputes are not sustainable, stating that they have to end somewhere. According to the IREPAS chairman, if the EU is exempt from the duties after June 1 and rest of the world is not, it will create a problem for Turks as a major exporter. However, he went on to say that, if everyone gets 25 percent, then Turkey will still have a chance to export rebar to the US. He also said that a 25 percent duty rate across the board would be more fair compared to quotas granted for some countries.

Mr. Cebecioglu also commented on the removal of the import duty on Turkish rebar, stating, “We have not seen a real threat at the moment but we know small volumes are coming to Turkey. As of now, there is a safeguard investigation in Turkey. We have to protect what is ours.”

Responding to a question about the graphite electrode shortage, the producers committee chairman said the shortage has been relieved to some extent, though the steel industry needs more and more electrodes due to the new electric arc furnaces being built. He also indicated that the cost of electrodes is rising also because of higher needle coke prices.

19:00 – 22:00      Welcome cocktail at Wyndham Grand Athens

September 25th, Monday

09:00 – 09:15      Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS

09:15 – 10:30        SESSION ONE – Global economic outlook

- Global Economic and Market Developments

Vassilis Patikis, Piraeus Bank / Head, Economic Research & Investment Strategy

• Structural Themes for the Post Crisis Global Economy
• US, European and Chinese Cycles
• Market Implications

10:30 – 11:00 Networking break

11:00 – 12:30          SESSION TWO – Critical changes expected in global long steel markets

- Long product market outlook

Jose Angel Rey, Celsa Group / Commercial Director

• Overview of global construction sector
• Steel and long products consumption
• Rebar markets
• International price situation

- Latest situation on the North American steel market and short term outlook

Frank Bergren, Metal Partners International / Managing Director

• Key challenges and opportunities in the US long products market
• Section 232
• What’s next for the US market?

- Focus on China: Can China sustain current situation?

Li Xinchuang, China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute (MPI) / President – China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) / Vice Secretary General

• Outlook for Chinese steel market – raw materials and long products
• Is the current domestic demand level sustainable?
• Overcapacity and environmental pollution : Is China going to be able to keep the undertaking on capacity cuts?
• Electrode production and exports
• An outlook for 2018 including AD cases

12:30 – 14:30 Networking lunch

14:30 – 17:00        IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 17:00 Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 17:00 Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 17:00 Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

17:00 - 19:00         Cocktail Reception

September 26th, Tuesday

09:30 – 11:00             SESSION FOUR – Panel with Committee Chairmen

• Producers Committee
• Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• Traders Committee

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products and steel billets, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Scrap demand will return within a few months

Jens Björkman, the chairman of the IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee, said that iron ore pricing has been more stable lately. He added that the slowing growth in China is increasing pressure on capacity utilization and is also weighing on steel prices. Having that said, the raw material suppliers believe that the market is in a better position in terms of exports from China.

Regarding the scrap market, the raw material suppliers committee’s findings indicate a relatively stable market and the committee expects demand to return within a few months. Mr. Björkman said that scrap inflow in the Western world, namely, in the EU and the US, is down by around 20 percent this year compared to 2015, thereby affecting the profitability of recyclers. He also stated that the high value of the US dollar is putting pressure on dollar-based scrap pricing, while US domestic demand has dropped and this is the main factor causing the decline in scrap prices.

Commenting on the international trade, the IREPAS Raw Material Suppliers Committee chairman said that Brexit resulted in the weakening of the pound, which opened the way for more exports coming from the UK. On the other hand, Turkish scrap trade has lately become more based on prompt shipments, while Russian scrap exports have declined sharply since domestic demand in Russia has improved. He also stated that the financing of the scrap trade is better in Russia, while, in the case of Turkey, banks were hesitant in the immediate aftermath of the coup attempt in July this year. He also commented that the recent rating downgrades for Turkey might impact financing as well. Mr. Björkman stressed that, with the last quarter of the year just around the corner, many suppliers are not interested in holding stocks.

In answer to a question on Ukraine’s scrap export tax,  Mr. Björkman said that exports from the country have diminished and the supply from the Baltic region has compensated for the loss of supply in some regions, adding that Turkey might need to book larger deep sea cargoes and this would mean a riskier operation for the Turkish steel industry.

Traders at IREPAS: Possible antidumping duty on Turkish rebar imports into the US is likely to increase pressure on prices

Representing the IREPAS Traders Committee, Wilhelm Alff from Duferco affirmed that traders are also concerned by the recent antidumping filing by the US-based rebar producers, pointing out that the quantities of imports are much higher compared to the previous filings. The traders committee expressed the view that Turkey has to find an arrangement with the US administration to continue rebar exports, otherwise “they need to find a new home which will increase pressure on market pricing”, said Mr. Alff. He also stated that the reason the US rebar importers choose Turkey as a supply source is not only price; he said that, besides being competitive in pricing, Turkey is also capable of meeting every specific type of requirement the US reinforcing bar market needs, which most other suppliers are not able to do.

Commenting on China, the IREPAS Traders Committee chairman said that capacity reduction is not everything; the bigger problem is the excess production which is creating a huge disturbance in the market. He stated that closing the mills is a very political issue; the potential loss of employment as a result of the closures will create a headache for the administration. The committee chairman also indicated that, even if China is granted market economy status, it will not change a lot for the industry except for trade cases which becomes more difficult for applicants.

Answering a question on whether the failed coup attempt in Turkey has had any effect on business, Mr. Alff said that he has not experienced any doubts on the customers’ side regarding Turkish supply, other than concerns about deliveries within a few days of the coup attempt; otherwise, it has been business as usual.

Steel Producers at IREPAS: Market conditions are more stable

Murat Cebecioglu, the chairman of IREPAS and also of the IREPAS Producers Committee, commented that in general the market conditions are more stable compared to previous years, while market players from the GCC countries are a little bit more optimistic than their EU counterparts. “Things are improving slowly but surely,” he added.

Mr. Cebecioglu said that trade protectionism is a significant issue for export-dependent countries, since competition is getting tougher and the pressure on exporters is increasing. He expressed the belief that export destinations will become limited and producers will have to find new places to sell their products. He also commented on the US antidumping filing on rebar imports, recalling that three years ago the same trade case resulted in zero margins. He went on to say that this time it is political, adding that the petitioners always change the method by which they calculate margins; however, he still expects the US producers’ coalition to come up empty-handed. He said he is confident that his company does not sell dumped goods to the US, while also stressing that the Turkish industry is certainly not subsidized.

In answer to a question regarding the granting of market economy status to China, the IREPAS Producers Committee chairman said that the decision makers have to think twice, adding that, if China is granted market economy status, trade measures will become more difficult. Mr. Cebecioglu stated that he considers it is too early to talk about the effects of Brexit in terms of international trade, but he hinted that Turkish mills might benefit from it.

Ioannis Meimaroglu, chairman of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee, underlined the record-high 44 registrations of representatives of a total of 32 different raw material supplier companies for this latest IREPAS meeting, and continued by stating that, in the first few months of the current year, scrap exports from the US and Europe have declined by as much as 30-40 percent year on year, partly due to the harsh winter conditions, but mostly due to the strong demand coming from domestic mills in the US. Meimaroglou quoted the US suppliers who mentioned that, even if scrap prices in the international market reach the level of $400/mt, it will still be difficult to compete with the current strength of the US domestic market. A similar situation was also outlined by European suppliers from Germany, Belgium and Sweden.

The substantial decrease in scrap exports from Romania – down to a monthly volume of just 72,000 mt compared to the previously normal monthly volume of 150,000 mt – came as a result of low scrap collection prices, stated the committee chairman, adding that scrap availability will continue at Rostov and other Azov Sea ports, especially after the opening of navigation on the rivers (around mid-April), but, of course, only if international market prices reach at least the same levels as prices from domestic factories.

The IREPAS raw materials suppliers committee chairman also said that Russian scrap exporters are now facing significant financing problems, as banks are taking serious measures after the events in Crimea and in eastern Ukraine in general. This may lead to new financing conditions for the suppliers and their clients, at least for a period of time until the normalization of relations between Russia and Ukraine, he remarked. “A new fact, underlined by some participants in the committee, is that scrap demand has now started to come from countries like Mexico and Egypt, which will further affect the availability of exports from the traditional suppliers,” Mr. Meimaroglu said.

Wilhelm Alff, the chairman of the IREPAS traders committee, evaluated the market situation stating that the supply-demand imbalance still exists and will continue in the short to medium term, despite quite low capacity utilization levels in Europe, especially in southern Europe. The traders remarked that in China, although some outdated capacities are being closed for environmental purposes, they are being replaced by larger and more advanced mills. Regarding the ongoing antidumping duty cases in the US in relation to Turkish and Mexican rebar, mixed opinions were expressed by traders, with no significant margin anticipated for Turkish rebar suppliers. Traders believe that protectionist practices will continue to be adopted.

Mr. Alff also mentioned that long steel product imports are expected to decline in the Algerian market with the commissioning of new capacities, including the new rebar mill of Turkish steel group Tosyali, which began production in June 2013. Lower long steel product demand in this country will affect Spanish and Italian rebar suppliers negatively, as Algeria is the main export market for southern European long steel mills.

Representing the IREPAS billet suppliers committee, Margarita Zvezda from Russian steel producer Evraz, stated that Ukraine and Russia – the largest steel billet suppliers – witnessed stable billet supplies in 2013, with Evraz permanently stopping a plate mill and thus having additional ~400,000 mt of steel for exports in the form of square billet, while Ural Steel shutting OHF production.

Ms. Zvezda remarked that Turkey, a long-standing net billet exporter, has become a net importer of steel billet last year, firstly because Turkish steel billet producers are mainly EAF-based and higher scrap prices harmed these producers’ cost-effectiveness, causing them to lose market share in export markets to CIS mills, which are mostly BOF-based and have cheaper iron ore supplies. Secondly, Turkish steel producers have preferred to import cheaper steel billets from the CIS instead of producing crude steel to cast steel billets. The IREPAS billet suppliers committee does not foresee any change in this situation in the mid-term, as some CIS billet suppliers are expected to continue sacrifice their margins in order to provide discounts to undercut Turkish steel billet prices.

Ms. Zvezda also stated that Iran had been a major player in the Middle Eastern steel billet market until international sanctions were imposed, adding that, if political issues are resolved, it will again become an important steel billet importer. However, she went on to say, this situation is not expected to last long, as Iran is close to becoming self-sufficient in terms of steel billet supplies after the commissioning of ongoing steel billet capacity projects.

As regards Egypt, Ms. Zvezda stated that Egypt has not experienced a genuine recovery in long steel consumption with significant overcapacity being in place, while a big portion of existing long steel demand is coming from illegal construction sites, a risky situation if the government decides to undertake measures, she said, going on to state that, with the commissioning of the steel billet plant project of Egyptian Steel, the country’s demand for steel billets is foreseen to decline.

Kim Marti, IREPAS chairman and chairman of the rebar and wire rod suppliers committee, said that long steel products demand in GCC countries is quite strong as usual, especially in Qatar. Local governments’ infrastructure spending, most importantly on housing, is providing support for higher demand. Stability is foreseen to continue in these countries which have solid budgets. However, he added, some new rebar capacities are coming on stream in the Middle East and some capacity expansions are also being carried out.

Mr. Marti stated that significant differences are seen between the north and south of Europe in terms of long steel product demand. In Germany, he said, residential construction is supporting long steel demand and in Poland EU funds worth €1.6 billion are expected to be spent mostly on infrastructure investments. Long steel demand in Spain and Portugal is not anticipated to decline further after the severe contraction in past years, though Italian long steel demand may decrease by a further 10 percent this year, Mr. Marti warned. Greece, surprisingly, is foreseen to witness some improvement in long steel demand, with some infrastructure investments.

After the municipal elections, the Turkish economy is expected to regain stability, the IREPAS chairman said, adding that Turkish rebar producers are not expecting high antidumping margins as a result of the ongoing trade case in the US against Turkish rebar.

To conclude, Mr. Marti stated that financial restrictions are limiting opportunities for rebar and wire rod producers, while providing some opportunities for traders.