All required information can be found here.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products and steel billet, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Raw Material Suppliers: Scrap collectors may consolidate for sustainable future         

The chairman of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee Jens Björkman indicated that scrap supply has found other places to go such as the Arabian Gulf, the Indian peninsula, as well as Turkey since the last IREPAS meeting in autumn 2014.

Mr. Björkman pointed out that the whole supply chain is suffering from overcapacity – from the mills and mines to scrap collectors. He said that some companies have scrap sites that are not profitable and will have to shut down. For a sustainable future, scrap collectors might have to consolidate, he said.

Björkman also pointed out that the domestic supply and demand situation in the US during winter has been tough, with harsh winter conditions affecting scrap collection. Besides, the decline in scrap prices also contributed to the 15 percent reduction in scrap collection. He added that demand in the US has also been affected by lower demand in the gas and oil sectors.

Regarding the EU, the raw material suppliers committee chairman said that demand was subdued but relatively healthy in the last few months, with the weaker euro serving to protect the industry somewhat. Commenting on European Commission restrictions on scrap exports, he said that “it never really gets farther than a discussion point”, adding that there are already obstacles in EU legislation which restrict exports. However, he reiterated that he does not see restrictions going further than that.

Replying to a question on whether major iron ore producers are becoming a monopoly, Mr. Björkman said that these miners want to retain their margins by increasing output, adding that the industry will continue to see high supply for a while before more and more smaller miners start shutting down production.

Traders: Weak euro is a positive signal for trade              

Bernd Neuenkirchen, the chairman of the IREPAS traders committee, said that there were ups and downs in the market which the committee discussed, mentioning North America as a bright spot, in comparison to the EU and other markets. While competition has increased, demand for rebar has not been too bad despite harsh winter conditions, according to the traders committee. Mr. Neuenkirchen also pointed out that the bad weather conditions in the northeastern US did not affect the steel industry as bad as it did last year when demand and GDP experienced a fall due to harsh winter conditions.

The traders committee chairman indicated that the weak euro has certainly changed the picture in the market, and this is a positive thing for traders, meaning there will be a wider range of supply sources, with European mills suddenly coming into picture. Regarding China, Neuenkirchen said that trade actions against China have changed the picture a little bit in the US and Canada, and as a result either China is out of these markets or its volumes are lower. In response to a question on whether US producers will continue to pursue trade action against Turkish rebar exports, he said he believes the US producers will ask for a review.

Producers need to find new opportunities while preserving margins   

Kim Marti, the chairman of both IREPAS and of the IREPAS steel producers committee, stressed that there are three major points for steel producers: the markets are growing, Chinese exports are expected to continue putting pressure on the markets, while big producers are adjusting their production according to market conditions.

Mr. Marti said producers have to find new opportunities, while in the meantime they also have to preserve margins by adjusting production. He said that, regarding the EU, its economy is expected to grow by 1.5 percent and customers are financially healthy, thereby increasing the possibilities for business. The IREPAS chairman indicated that Turkey is involved in intense competition with China, while it is challenged by low demand in neighboring countries, such as Iraq and Syria, due to political unrest. Turkish exporters have been finding alternative markets in Africa and South America.

Looking at South America, Brazil is suffering a little bit because of political uncertainty, while other countries in the region are enjoying healthy conditions. Mr. Marti also said that seven percent GDP growth is expected in the Philippines, while construction in the country is growing as well. He added that the country needs 150,000 mt of billet per month, and with new production capacities coming on line the country will be self-sufficient.

19:00 – 22:00 Welcome Cocktail at Intercontinental Paris Le Grand Hotel

March 23rd, Monday

09:00 - 09:15 Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS – Kim Marti

09:15 – 10: 30 SESSION ONE 

• Low raw material prices and booming Chinese exports: which consequences for the global steel sector?
  Eric Louvert, BNP Paribas
• Why The Future Begins – Navigating The Turbulent World of Small Ideas and Grand Narratives
  Special Guest Speaker: Magnus Lindkvist

10:30 – 11:00  Networking Break

11:00 – 12:30  SESSION TWO – Critical changes expected in global long steel markets

• Long product market outlook
  Franc Cardona, Celsa Group
• EU Steel market outlook
  Jeroen Vermeij, The European Steel Association (EUROFER)
• Chinese steel industry outlook
  Ralf Baltrusch, China Minmetals Corporation
• CIS market overview – How the Ukraine-Russia crisis is effecting the steel markets?
  Vitali Postolenko, Derzhzovnishinform (DZI)

12:30 – 14:00  Lunch Break

14:00 – 17:00  IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:30 – 17:00  Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 17:00  Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30 – 17:00  Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

20:00 – 23:00  Gala Dinner

March 24th, Tuesday 

09:30 – 11:00  SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

Committees:

• Producers Committee
• Raw Material Suppliers Committee
• Traders Committee

Raw material suppliers: Increasing Chinese exports will alter market balances

Ioannis Meimaroglou, chairman of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee, stated that the increasing volume of exports from China due to the slowdown of Chinese domestic consumption is influencing the world market and will certainly change the existing steel trade balances. Mr. Meimaroglou said that the some members of the raw materials committee expressed the view that the threat of cheap Chinese steel exports is being used more as a pretext to exert downward pressure on raw material prices, while others stated that, if Chinese exports reach 100-120 million tons annually, the consequences will be serious, independently of whether these exports are directed to Turkey or to other countries.

Meimaroglou added that the increasing raw material demand in the market and particularly in the Arabian peninsula is creating a new situation in the region and can change the correlations on a more permanent and long-term basis. He went on to say that the considerable fall in iron ore prices has been increasing the pressure on scrap prices, adding that the strengthening of the US dollar is helping raw material suppliers for the time being, covering a part of the price fall.

Regarding scrap collection, Meimaroglu stated that the domestic markets in the US, Europe and Russia are very strong and healthy and so it is difficult to compete with them in order to collect material for export, leaving most scrap yards almost empty. He concluded by saying that the raw material market is likely to see further pressure on prices, drastically affecting suppliers’ quantities, while also adding that the direction of scrap flow may change in the future.

Traders see new possibilities for business with Iran, upbeat on Iraq and Ukraine

The traders committee chairman F.D. Baysal said that, despite the political instability in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq and Syria, shipments to Iraq are still continuing, though with some interruptions. He underlined that there are new possibilities for buying from and selling to Iran which is a new market to look forward to.

Regarding the tensions between Ukraine and Russia, Mr. Baysal stated that business is being carried on as usual, with minor interruptions which do not pose any major problems for traders. The trade flow in the region is observed to be continuing as before.

Commenting on different antidumping cases, Mr. Baysal remarked that, since Turkey is exempt from US rebar antidumping duties, rebar exports from Turkey to the US will continue, adding that the pricing may not change. He pointed out that, with China exiting the US market as a result of the wire rod antidumping duty investigation, there will be new countries entering the US market.

With regard to the increasing volumes of Chinese exports flooding the market, Baysal said that he has been always a supporter of free trade as long as it is also fair trade – speaking in response to market information that China is exporting to North Africa with 180-day credit terms, with insurance provided by a state-owned company.

Finally, commenting on raw material prices, the traders committee chairman said that iron ore prices have been declining and probably will decline further, forcing scrap prices to decline as well. Traders are looking forward to seeing lower prices, he affirmed.

Steel producers: Changing billet prices will lead to new market realities

The chairman of the steel producers committee, Kim Marti, who is also chairman of IREPAS, stated that Turkey is out of the billet market in addition to the interruptions to the business in Ukraine and that the market has been left to the Chinese mills. Mr. Marti added that the Chinese billet suppliers gaining ground in the region will put pressure on billet prices in the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions and also on scrap prices, since billets are used as a substitute for scrap. Mr. Marti, along with the other committee chairmen, agreed that certain measures should be imposed against Chinese exports.

Mr. Marti pointed out that the changing billet prices will take the industry to a new setup in the coming months, though also saying that the market adjusts quickly to new realities. Rebar demand will see a slight increase compared to 2013, Mr. Marti said, adding that the Turkish mills are happy with their domestic market and are looking forward to new trade routes opening up again to Iraq.

The producers committee chairman also said that, while the northern EU countries are performing well, the situation is less bright for southern EU countries. Italian, Spanish and Greek mills are still facing significant overcapacity under very slow market circumstances, finding the balance with exports to North Africa and production cuts. Mr.Marti added that they are starting to see signs of revival in consumption in Greece and Spain.

Commenting on the EU mills’ investments in environmental protection, Mr. Marti said that it is not something that the mills should abandon, while other committee chairmen agreed that environmental protection constitutes a social responsibility aspect of businesses and should be continued.

All details will be announced soon.

The IREPAS chairman stated that overcapacity is still the main problem the steel industry is facing, citing China as the principal source of the overcapacity with new steelmaking capacities coming on stream in the country. Mr. Marti also included the change in the iron ore-scrap price balance, as well as trade barriers and credit restrictions as problems the industry is coping with.

Marti also said that the key risks to the global economy, such as geopolitical tensions including conflicts in Ukraine and in the Africa/MENA region, should be closely monitored. He indicated that the long-term fundamentals for long steel products remain solid, with emerging economies expected to continue to drive long steel product demand, especially in Asia. However, despite demand growth, margins for EAF producers have been squeezed, while iron ore-based producers have been benefiting from relatively low iron ore prices.

Mr. Marti commented on the fear of oversupply from China in the market, stating that it is justified, pointing out that Chinese rebar production totaled almost 220 million mt in 2013. He said that the EU is still facing a period of low consumption compared to 2008-09 and is trying to adapt its production to the market by shutting down excess capacities.

The IREPAS chairman said; global steel consumption grew by 3.1 percent in 2013, confirming its sustained growth since 2009. More than three percent growth is expected in both 2014 and 2015. Global apparent steel finished use is forecast at 1.52 billion mt in 2014, with long steel product consumption this year expected to reach 846 million mt. He went on to say that the Asian markets, which account for more than 70 percent of total long steel product consumption, continue to drive global consumption volumes and growth.

Regarding long steel product consumption in terms of the different products, Kim Marti said that rebar has gained market share and accounts for 43 percent of total long steel product consumption, with wire rod accounting for 27 percent, merchant bar for 24 percent, and sections for six percent. Overall annual growth in rebar consumption in 2014 is foreseen to reach 5.3 percent, with significant strength in North America (with a predicted rise of 7.8 percent) and signs of recovery in the EU (with an anticipated 5.9 percent increase in rebar consumption for the full year). Mr. Marti affirmed that the developing economies are driving global rebar consumption, with China accounting for 55 percent of total consumption.

September 28th, Sunday

14:00 – 19:00 Registration desk opens at the lobby
19:00 – 23:00 Welcome Cocktail at Hilton Berlin Hotel
September 29th, Monday 

08:30 – 09:00 Registration desk opens at the conference area
09:00 – 10:00 Welcome address by Chairman of IREPAS – Kim Marti

SESSION ONE – Global Economic Outlook
Keynote Speaker: Lutz Karpowitz, Commerzbank AG

10:00 – 11:00  Guest Speaker: Peter Draper (former director of Man.Utd. FC)

11:00 – 11:30 Networking Break

11:30 – 12:30 SESSION TWO – Global Trends, Diminishing Exports and Trade Cases

• EU economy and long product market outlook / Speaker : Franc Cardona, Celsa Group
• US market trends and trade cases / Speaker: Bernd Neuenkirchen, C&F International

• Steel trends and expectations: MENA and GCC / Speaker: Abdulaziz Abdul Razaq Hashim , Qatar Steel

12:30 – 14:00 Lunch Break

14:00 – 17:00 IREPAS Committee Meetings

• 14:00–15:45 Wire Rod & Rebar Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:00–15:45 Billet Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 16:00–17:00 Producers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30–17:00 Raw Material Suppliers Committee (by invitation only)
• 14:30–17:00 Traders Committee (open to all attendees)

20:00 – 23:00 Gala Dinner

September 30th, Tuesday 

09:30 – 11:00 SESSION THREE – Panel with Committee Chairmen

Committees:
- Wire Rod & Rebar Suppliers Committee
- Billet Suppliers Committee
- Producers Committee
- Raw Material Suppliers Committee
- Traders Committee

Ioannis Meimaroglu, chairman of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee, underlined the record-high 44 registrations of representatives of a total of 32 different raw material supplier companies for this latest IREPAS meeting, and continued by stating that, in the first few months of the current year, scrap exports from the US and Europe have declined by as much as 30-40 percent year on year, partly due to the harsh winter conditions, but mostly due to the strong demand coming from domestic mills in the US. Meimaroglou quoted the US suppliers who mentioned that, even if scrap prices in the international market reach the level of $400/mt, it will still be difficult to compete with the current strength of the US domestic market. A similar situation was also outlined by European suppliers from Germany, Belgium and Sweden.

The substantial decrease in scrap exports from Romania – down to a monthly volume of just 72,000 mt compared to the previously normal monthly volume of 150,000 mt – came as a result of low scrap collection prices, stated the committee chairman, adding that scrap availability will continue at Rostov and other Azov Sea ports, especially after the opening of navigation on the rivers (around mid-April), but, of course, only if international market prices reach at least the same levels as prices from domestic factories.

The IREPAS raw materials suppliers committee chairman also said that Russian scrap exporters are now facing significant financing problems, as banks are taking serious measures after the events in Crimea and in eastern Ukraine in general. This may lead to new financing conditions for the suppliers and their clients, at least for a period of time until the normalization of relations between Russia and Ukraine, he remarked. “A new fact, underlined by some participants in the committee, is that scrap demand has now started to come from countries like Mexico and Egypt, which will further affect the availability of exports from the traditional suppliers,” Mr. Meimaroglu said.

Wilhelm Alff, the chairman of the IREPAS traders committee, evaluated the market situation stating that the supply-demand imbalance still exists and will continue in the short to medium term, despite quite low capacity utilization levels in Europe, especially in southern Europe. The traders remarked that in China, although some outdated capacities are being closed for environmental purposes, they are being replaced by larger and more advanced mills. Regarding the ongoing antidumping duty cases in the US in relation to Turkish and Mexican rebar, mixed opinions were expressed by traders, with no significant margin anticipated for Turkish rebar suppliers. Traders believe that protectionist practices will continue to be adopted.

Mr. Alff also mentioned that long steel product imports are expected to decline in the Algerian market with the commissioning of new capacities, including the new rebar mill of Turkish steel group Tosyali, which began production in June 2013. Lower long steel product demand in this country will affect Spanish and Italian rebar suppliers negatively, as Algeria is the main export market for southern European long steel mills.

Representing the IREPAS billet suppliers committee, Margarita Zvezda from Russian steel producer Evraz, stated that Ukraine and Russia – the largest steel billet suppliers – witnessed stable billet supplies in 2013, with Evraz permanently stopping a plate mill and thus having additional ~400,000 mt of steel for exports in the form of square billet, while Ural Steel shutting OHF production.

Ms. Zvezda remarked that Turkey, a long-standing net billet exporter, has become a net importer of steel billet last year, firstly because Turkish steel billet producers are mainly EAF-based and higher scrap prices harmed these producers’ cost-effectiveness, causing them to lose market share in export markets to CIS mills, which are mostly BOF-based and have cheaper iron ore supplies. Secondly, Turkish steel producers have preferred to import cheaper steel billets from the CIS instead of producing crude steel to cast steel billets. The IREPAS billet suppliers committee does not foresee any change in this situation in the mid-term, as some CIS billet suppliers are expected to continue sacrifice their margins in order to provide discounts to undercut Turkish steel billet prices.

Ms. Zvezda also stated that Iran had been a major player in the Middle Eastern steel billet market until international sanctions were imposed, adding that, if political issues are resolved, it will again become an important steel billet importer. However, she went on to say, this situation is not expected to last long, as Iran is close to becoming self-sufficient in terms of steel billet supplies after the commissioning of ongoing steel billet capacity projects.

As regards Egypt, Ms. Zvezda stated that Egypt has not experienced a genuine recovery in long steel consumption with significant overcapacity being in place, while a big portion of existing long steel demand is coming from illegal construction sites, a risky situation if the government decides to undertake measures, she said, going on to state that, with the commissioning of the steel billet plant project of Egyptian Steel, the country’s demand for steel billets is foreseen to decline.

Kim Marti, IREPAS chairman and chairman of the rebar and wire rod suppliers committee, said that long steel products demand in GCC countries is quite strong as usual, especially in Qatar. Local governments’ infrastructure spending, most importantly on housing, is providing support for higher demand. Stability is foreseen to continue in these countries which have solid budgets. However, he added, some new rebar capacities are coming on stream in the Middle East and some capacity expansions are also being carried out.

Mr. Marti stated that significant differences are seen between the north and south of Europe in terms of long steel product demand. In Germany, he said, residential construction is supporting long steel demand and in Poland EU funds worth €1.6 billion are expected to be spent mostly on infrastructure investments. Long steel demand in Spain and Portugal is not anticipated to decline further after the severe contraction in past years, though Italian long steel demand may decrease by a further 10 percent this year, Mr. Marti warned. Greece, surprisingly, is foreseen to witness some improvement in long steel demand, with some infrastructure investments.

After the municipal elections, the Turkish economy is expected to regain stability, the IREPAS chairman said, adding that Turkish rebar producers are not expecting high antidumping margins as a result of the ongoing trade case in the US against Turkish rebar.

To conclude, Mr. Marti stated that financial restrictions are limiting opportunities for rebar and wire rod producers, while providing some opportunities for traders.

All details will be announced soon.

Mr. Marti emphasized that the continuation of free trade is unquestionable, though adding that steel producers may need to take measures against unfair trade practices. He also added that credit restrictions are limiting the pace of trade in the steel industry, as the steel business is seen risky by finance providers.