The supply and demand balance in the global long steel products market has become marginally worse for international business since June, although supply has started to react. Global crude steel production moved from an increase of 1.7 percent year on year in June to a decrease of 0.3 percent in July, with China’s crude steel output moving from an increase of 0.4 percent to a decrease of 3.6 percent in these respective months. However, global production in the January-July period was down only 0.6 percent year on year, which does not yet signal a meaningful rebalancing. The market situation in the coming period is extremely difficult to predict, particularly given the geopolitical developments affecting the Black Sea region and the Strait of Hormuz. International trade has become increasingly challenging. Demand remains generally subdued, while disruptions to supply and logistics are creating upward pressure on prices.

Energy costs rise significantly, overall environment increasingly inflationary

At the same time, energy costs have risen significantly. Natural gas prices in Europe and elsewhere remain at very high levels, with electricity prices following the same trend, while coal prices have also moved higher. Consequently, the overall environment has become increasingly inflationary. We, therefore, have an unusual combination of relatively weak demand and rising costs and supply-side pressures, which are creating considerable uncertainty and volatility in the international steel market.

China’s steel bar exports rise further, its real estate investments deteriorate

In the meantime, China’s real estate investments deteriorated from a decrease of 18.0 percent in the first half to a drop of 19.2 percent in the January-July period, with fixed-asset investments and infrastructure investments decreasing by bigger margins of 6.7 percent and 3.6 percent respectively in the January-July period, compared to respective declines of 5.7 percent and 2.4 percent in the first half. Steel exports from China in July remained above 10 million metric tons, with steel bar exports rising by 20.9 percent in July and by 12.3 percent in the January-July period. Together with the tighter EU and UK import quotas from July 1, this means a better balance inside protected markets but more displacement into the remaining open markets. The imbalance is being redistributed rather than resolved.

Higher costs begin to push EU prices upwards

Demand in the EU market remains weak, partly due to the summer season and the continued lack of activity in construction. A sudden increase in consumption is not currently foreseen, particularly as we move into the fourth quarter, which is traditionally a period of slowing activity. Nevertheless, sharply higher energy costs are now pushing mills’ prices upwards. Exceptionally low water levels on Europe’s major rivers have also increased transport costs for both mills and importers. Even in a weak demand environment, producers cannot continue absorbing these additional costs indefinitely. The current upward price movement is therefore mainly cost-driven rather than the result of any significant improvement in consumption.

US remains one of the clearer growth markets, but high interest rates still a major issue

The US is one of the clearer growth markets: domestic steel shipments increased by 5.3 percent in the first half of 2026, while steel demand is forecast to grow by 1.7 percent in the calendar year 2026, supported by infrastructure and technology-related investment. There is a gradual demand recovery in the US as well as strong infrastructure investment and continued AI investments. Meanwhile, imports are down 22 percent year-to-date. Supply in the US long steel market is moderately tight but has been moving toward a balance as of August. High interest rates are still a major issue for residential and commercial construction. However, rising domestic capacity and slowly recovering imports should gradually ease the supply pressure. Overall, the situation is better for US mills, but tougher for international suppliers. The US is going on its own path, at least until the results of the mid-term elections are announced. In the meantime, there are about 20 steel producers in the US announcing outages for September, October and November.

Global prices to remain driven by supply-side factors rather than by demand

From a pricing perspective, the main supportive factors are the prospect of reduced supply pressure from China, disruptions affecting trade in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, higher energy and production costs, and the increasingly restrictive trade measures being implemented in the US, the EU and the UK. Global production finally saw a slightly negative correction in July, indicating that mills are beginning to respond. In the EU, steel producers are announcing profits. Our expectation is that prices will remain under upward pressure during the next quarter driven primarily by the abovementioned factors rather than by a strong recovery in underlying demand.

Global steel demand foreseen to improve in 2027, but no broad recovery yet

On the demand side, the picture is less encouraging. Nevertheless, there is still meaningful demand in the Americas, while demand in most other regions appears broadly stable rather than deteriorating significantly. Looking at the global situation, India, Southeast Asia, Africa and select US construction segments offer the best opportunities for long steel products. According to market analysts, global steel demand is expected to improve further in 2027, supporting trade volumes and market confidence. These are positives for select markets and margins, but not yet evidence of a broad global demand recovery.

Ferrous scrap market still characterized by weakness

The ferrous scrap market is weak without much movement towards the upside as steel mills seek to avoid price hikes that would further constrict their margins.

Competition at reduced levels amid limited number of viable supply alternatives

Competition in the global long steel market is currently somewhat reduced, mainly because the number of competitive supply sources has become more limited. Trade restrictions, geopolitical disruptions, higher freight and energy costs, and difficulties in accessing certain markets have all reduced the number of viable supply alternatives.

Current market status very unstable, market highly sensitive to geopolitical developments

Under such circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as very unstable. The market will remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly in the Black Sea and the Middle East.

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The DOC preliminarily determined that POSCO and POSCO International Corporation (PIC), treated as a single entity, did not sell subject merchandise in the United States at prices below normal value during the period of review. The DOC has preliminarily determined a weighted-average dumping margin of 0.00 percent for the collapsed entity.

The all-others rate is 41.10 percent.

The DOC determined a weighted-average dumping margin of 53.27 percent for Promet Steel JSC and 53.27 percent for all other Bulgarian exporters.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings 7213.10.0000, 7214.20.0000, and 7228.30.8010 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS).

The AD investigation was initiated on June 30, 2025, in response to a petition filed by the Rebar Trade Action Coalition. The final determination was published in the Federal Register on July 30, 2026. If the US International Trade Commission (ITC) issues an affirmative final injury determination, the DOC will issue an AD order.

In the AD investigation, covering the period of investigation between April 1, 2024, and March 31, 2025, the DOC determined a weighted-average dumping margin of 34.20 percent for the Ezz group, comprising Al-Ezz Dekheila Steel Alexandria Company S.A.E., Ezz Steel Company S.A.E., Ezz Rolling Mills Company S.A.E., and Al-Ezz Flat Steel Company S.A.E.

The DOC also determined a margin of 52.73 percent for El Marakby Steel, 52.73 percent for Suez Steel Company, and 34.20 percent for all other Egyptian exporters. The rates for El Marakby Steel and Suez Steel Company are based on facts available with adverse inferences.

In the CVD investigation, covering the period of investigation between January 1, 2024, and December 31, 2024, the DOC determined a net countervailable subsidy rate of 23.27 percent for the Ezz group, comprising Al-Ezz Dekheila Steel Alexandria Company (SAE), Ezz Steel Company S.A.E., Ezz Rolling Mills Company (SAE), Al-Ezz Flat Steel Company (SAE), Contra Steel Co., and Al-Ezz Group Holding Company for Industry & Investment.

The DOC also determined a rate of 23.27 percent for all other Egyptian exporters.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings 7213.10.0000, 7214.20.0000, and 7228.30.8010 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS).

The investigations were initiated on June 30, 2025, in response to a petition filed by the Rebar Trade Action Coalition. The final determinations were published in the Federal Register on July 30, 2026. If the US International Trade Commission (ITC) issues an affirmative final injury determination, the DOC will issue AD and CVD orders.

The DOC determined a net countervailable subsidy rate of 6.80 percent for Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company and 6.80 percent for all other Vietnamese exporters.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings 7213.10.0000, 7214.20.0000, and 7228.30.8010 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS).

The CVD investigation was initiated on June 30, 2025, in response to a petition filed by the Rebar Trade Action Coalition. The final determination was published in the Federal Register on July 30, 2026. If the US International Trade Commission (ITC) issues an affirmative final injury determination, the DOC will issue a CVD order.

The net countervailable subsidy rate is 72.94 percent for Tosyali Iron Steel Industry Algeria SPA, the sole mandatory respondent, and 72.94 percent for all others. The rate is based on facts available with adverse inferences, as Tosyali did not participate in the investigation.

Because the US Trade Representative has determined that Algeria is not a Subsidies Agreement country, no material injury determination by the US International Trade Commission was required.

The ITC closed its investigation on May 18, 2026, and the DOC subsequently issued this order. The CVD order is applicable as of July 6, 2026, and was published in the Federal Register the same date.

The overall business environment in the global long steel products market has deteriorated again. Everything is even more difficult and complexities are increasing further. Nevertheless, the apparent de-escalation of the conflict involving Iran could mark an important turning point. If geopolitical risks continue to ease, we may be approaching the bottom of the current market cycle.

International rebar market now weaker compared to one month ago

The international reinforcing bars market is now weaker than it was a month ago. Demand in the market continues to be subdued, while supply remains high, putting pressure on prices and margins. However, in addition to the positive development represented by the easing of tensions in the Middle East, some producers are heard to have begun lowering production in response to market conditions, which should help improve the supply-and-demand balance over time.

Demand hit by low confidence, more Iranian and Russian billet could depress rebar prices

It seems that the concerns and lack of confidence shown by market players, in particular by buyers, constitute the main obstacles preventing demand from improving. The price of scrap shows how confident mills are for future planning. We may see more Iranian and Russian billets in the market, which would exert further pressure on reinforcing bar prices.

Producers face higher costs of power during the hot summer season

As far as costs are concerned, with energy demand increasing amid the seasonally high temperatures, the higher price of power will also work against producers’ interests.

EU struggles to improve its GDP, domestic prices soften due to weak demand

The overall geopolitical situation is not good for investments and Europe is still struggling to improve its GDP, while energy costs and inflation are rising. In the meantime, we have entered into a new phase regarding EU imports, which will only be observed during the initial days of the new quarterly period and will then be silent for the rest of the quarter. Despite the announcement of the quota reduction by almost 50 percent well in advance, EU mills had been able to raise their prices for a while, but now their prices are falling back to where they were before, as demand is weak all over the EU.

Chinese steel exports continue to increase despite gradual decline in output

There is nothing positive in the Far East except for the gradual decrease in production in China, which, however, will not change anything in the short run. Chinese steel exports continue to increase.

US market very reliant on data centers

Capacity utilization in the US is stalling at 81 percent and domestic mills are announcing increases of US$10/nt. The driver in the US market has been data centers, which are not all 100 percent-financed or are without building permits.

Most encouraging development was the easing of tensions in Middle East

Having said all above, the most encouraging development was the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Greater regional stability could have supported a gradual recovery in economic activity and steel demand, particularly in the Gulf markets. At the same time, despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, there are signs of improving demand for steel products. This suggests that reconstruction needs and investment could provide support for the market once geopolitical conditions normalize. These developments had given reason for cautious optimism about the medium-term outlook. But the tension seems to be there again.

Global competition still extremely intense, few genuinely free markets remain

Competition in the global steel market remains extremely intense. Trade flows continue to be shaped by tariffs, quotas and other trade measures, resulting in fragmented regional markets. Within Europe, competition is strong due to weak demand and significant production capacities. Competition in third-country export markets is even more challenging, as suppliers from around the world compete for a shrinking number of open destinations. Today, there are relatively few genuinely free markets remaining for global steel producers.

Current market status unstable, with a very unclear outlook

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable with a very unclear outlook.

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The DOC determined that Deacero S.A.P.I. de C.V. and Deacero Summit S.A.P.I. de C.V., treated as a single entity, made sales of subject merchandise at less than normal value during the period of review. The DOC has determined a weighted-average dumping margin of 14.67 percent for the entity.

According to the preliminary results, the weighted-average dumping margin was determined at 15.97 percent.

The DOC also rescinded the review with respect to seven companies, namely ArcelorMittal Mexico S.A. de C.V., Comercializadora Eloro, S.A., Grupo Villacero S.A. de C.V., Ingeteknos Fabricaciones S.A. de C.V., Ternium Mexico S.A. de C.V., Optimatiks Mexico S.A. de C.V., and TA 2000 S.A. de C.V., as there were no reviewable, suspended entries of subject merchandise from these companies during the period of review.

The all-others rate is 20.11 percent.

The DOC determined that Colakoglu Metalurji A.S. received countervailable subsidies during the period of review. The DOC has determined a net countervailable subsidy rate of 1.26 percent.

The preliminary rate was 1.84 percent. The rate was revised in the final results based on changes made to the subsidy rate calculation in response to comments received from interested parties.

Half of the import quotas have been allocated exclusively to free trade agreement (FTA) partners, while the remaining half will be available to all exporting countries, including FTA partners.

The regulation establishes three different quota access mechanisms depending on the exporting country’s status.

Countries receiving a country-specific quota (CSQ) may use their allocated quota immediately. Once exhausted, eligible FTA partners may continue exporting under an additional FTA Quota – CSQ, which is administered on a first-come, first-served basis.

Countries without country-specific quotas may instead access:
- “Other countries” quota: accessible for the exporting countries which are not FTA partners.
- FTA Quota – Other countries quota: accessible for the exporting countries which are FTA partners.

The countries that are able to access these three type of quotas may vary depending on the products.

The CSQ allocations for reinforcing bars are as follows:

• Türkiye : 239,66.09 mtons (59,919.02 mtons per quarter)
• Egypt : 144,367.80 mtons (36,091.95 mtons per quarter)
• Algeria : 63,761.42 mtons (15,940.36 mtons per quarter)
• Moldova : 39,719.11 mtons (9,929.78 mtons per quarter)
• China : 20,216.13 mtons (5,054.03 mtons per quarter)
• Ukraine : 67,710.16 mtons (16,927.54 mtons per quarter)
• FTA Quota – CSQ : 158,803.37 mtons (39,700.84 mtons per quarter)
• Other Countries : 63,322.34 mtons (15,830.59 mtons per quarter)
• FTA Quota – Other Countries : 38,299.23 mtons (9,574.81 mtons per quarter)
• UK (to Northern Ireland from other parts of the UK) : 8,649.90 mtons (2,162.48 mtons per quarter)

The CSQ allocations for wire rods are as follows:

• Türkiye : 244,589.00 mtons (61,147.25 mtons per quarter)
• Malaysia : 86,683.40 mtons (21,670.85 mtons per quarter)
• UK : 175,399.53 mtons (43,849.88 mtons per quarter)
• Ukraine : 189,145.02 mtons (47,286.26 mtons per quarter)
• Switzerland : 162,195.34 mtons (40,548.83 mtons per quarter)
• Viet Nam : 97,086.65 mtons (24,271.66 mtons per quarter)
• Moldova : 95,839.25 mtons (23,959.81 mtons per quarter)
• Egypt : 86,714.89 mtons (21,678.72 mtons per quarter)
• FTA Quota – CSQ : 122,881.38 mtons (30,720.34 mtons per quarter)
• Other Countries : 153,927.34 mtons (38,481.84 mtons per quarter)
• FTA Quota – Other Countries : 138,440.96 mtons (34,610.24 mtons per quarter)
• Korea : 11,334.76 mtons (2,833.69 mtons per quarter)
• Japan : 5,293.99 mtons (1,323.50 mtons per quarter)