On behalf of our members worldwide, we extend our heartfelt condolences to the families of those who lost their lives, to the management and employees of HABAS, and to the entire Turkish steel community.

Our thoughts and solidarity are with our colleagues at HABAS during this extremely difficult time.

IREPAS

Overall, the situation in the global long steel products market has worsened slightly. There has been a so-called stability in the global long steel products market for the last couple months as far as demand is concerned, though demand remains weak. However, some volatility is seen in rebar prices due to changes in scrap prices. Higher scrap prices have been resulting in increased demand for steel billets from the Far East. Governments worldwide may push for increased investments in infrastructure amid AI data centre construction and resulting increases in electricity needs. In the US, of course, this is already happening, but it is also expected to be seen in other parts of the world soon.

Chinese give signals of wanting to keep supply in check, but doubts persist

Excess production capacity continues to be a major concern. In terms of supply, it seems the Chinese government wants to keep supply in check. Of course, it is not clear that this will actually happen. There is still no sign of any improvement in demand or of a slowing down of Chinese exports for the time being. Market players are crossing their fingers that next year the Chinese will take similar actions to what they did back in 2016.

Uncertainty is the main risk facing all parties

Uncertainty is the main risk facing all parties and appears likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. Increased interest rates in the West are another concern affecting future demand expectations.

European steel producers face rapidly increasing costs, demand remains weak

The European steel market remains challenging, with weak demand and strong competition between domestic producers. The reduced safeguard quotas and CBAM have so far provided limited support to steel prices, as European mills continue competing aggressively for volumes rather than protecting their margins.

However, the situation is changing rapidly due to skyrocketing energy costs. Natural gas prices in the EU have increased by approximately 150 percent over the past three months, with Dutch TTF futures now trading above €100/MWh compared to less than €40/MWh three months ago. Electricity prices have also increased sharply.

The increase in electricity and natural gas prices since August has so far added more than €110/mt to direct steelmaking and rolling costs, and there is a risk of further increases.

At current finished steel prices, the economics of European steel production are becoming increasingly difficult. Mills are facing a choice between passing these additional costs on to customers, accepting a further deterioration in margins or reducing production.

Meanwhile, reduced import quotas and CBAM are limiting alternative sources of supply. Although demand remains weak, the combination of rising production costs and restricted imports could significantly change the supply-demand balance in Europe.

The recent price increases have been primarily cost-driven rather than demand-driven. Higher logistical costs, including those caused by exceptionally low water levels on European rivers, have added further pressure without substantially disrupting supply chains.

The German construction industry is still awaiting the implementation of state-funded infrastructure projects, while private investment remains subdued due to continuing uncertainty.

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2027, further increases in European steel prices appear likely if energy costs remain at current levels or continue rising. Any reductions in production would add further upward pressure, even without an improvement in demand.

The present situation has become unsustainable. It demands immediate action.

Some slight improvement in supply-demand balance in general

Mills in the rest of the world do not have the extremely high costs of European production, which are mainly the result of the EU’s CO2 policies, but it still seems oversupply is not a very big issue. So, the balance of supply and demand in general is probably a little better than before.

Demand in US relatively stable, but growth focused on select areas

In the US, demand is relatively stable, but high import tariffs and trade restrictions have significantly reduced opportunities for international suppliers, while domestic mills enjoy a more protected market. Margins for international traders in the US remain under significant pressure. AI data centre construction, energy, and selected infrastructure projects remain among the few major growth areas. Residential and commercial construction activity remains weak, partly due to high financing costs. Steel demand growth is uneven across different steel products and sectors. Overall, the global supply-demand imbalance continues to be a serious concern. It may soon be a US problem as well for certain products like rebar.

EAF-based producers see production costs rise continuously, integrated mills benefit

One interesting factor is that the production costs for EAF-based material are increasing continuously due to electricity shortages and the lack of adequate transmission lines. This is probably to the advantage of integrated producers who use coal.

India and parts of Southeast Asia remain relatively strong markets

Internationally, India and parts of Southeast Asia remain relatively strong markets. We also see some potential for improvement in Southeast Asia during 2027, although any recovery is likely to be gradual and uneven. Another positive factor is that there is no bombing in the Middle East.

Competition in global market remains very tough and very regional

Competition in the global market is, as always, very tough and very regional. Excess global capacity, particularly in Asia, combined with trade barriers and limited access to major importing markets, is forcing exporters to compete aggressively for fewer available opportunities. The first quarter of 2027 is expected to see further price increases in Europe. The North American market is still stable at 80 percent capacity utilization, but in the next two to three years domestic competition may
pick up due to oversupply and uncertain consumption forecasts.

Current status of the market stable in Europe for the moment, unstable in other areas

Under these circumstances, the current status of the market is stable in Europe at least for a few more weeks, but unstable in other areas.

Market outlook for next quarter very challenging, scrap to be scarcer as US and EU export less

The outlook of the market for the next quarter is very challenging and weak. It seems there will be higher prices due to higher energy costs and also scarcity of scrap, since the US, one of the two big scrap exporting regions, requires more and more scrap domestically. In addition, Europe, is increasing its consumption of scrap and less will be available for the export market, also leading to higher scrap prices. The outlook for demand is stable but unsatisfactory.
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Accordingly, the EC decided to launch the review after the EUROFER had submitted a request for a review on June 30, 2026, based on the fact that the expiry of the measures would be likely to result in continuation or recurrence of dumping and recurrence of injury to the EU industry. The review will cover the period between July 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, and will be completed within 12 months.

The antidumping duties on the given products are at the 7.9 percent for Valin Group and 24.0 percent for all other Chinese companies.

The products subject to the review currently fall under Customs Tariff Statistics Position Numbers

• 7213 10 00,
• 7213 20 00,
• 7213 91 10,
• 7213 91 20,
• 7213 91 41,
• 7213 91 49,
• 7213 91 70,
• 7213 91 90,
• 7213 99 10,
• 7213 99 90,
• 7227 10 00,
• 7227 20 00,
• 7227 90 10,
• 7227 90 50,
• 7227 90 95.

The DOC has preliminarily found that some Turkish exporters made sales of the subject merchandise at prices below normal value during the period of review. The DOC has preliminarily determined estimated weighted-average dumping margins at 13.11 percent for Colakoglu Metalurji A.S.; Colakoglu Dis Ticaret A.S. and Ekinciler Demir ve Celik Sanayi A.S.

The DOC has also rescinded this review with respect to three companies, namely Habas Sinai ve Tibbi Gazlar Istihsal Endustrisi A.S., Icdas Celik Enerji Tersane ve Ulasim A.S. and Kaptan Demir Celik, for which there were no reviewable entries of the subject merchandise during the period of review.

There were 96 representatives from 36 different producers among the 302 registered delegates from a total of 41 different countries. There were also 75 registrations representing 43 different raw material suppliers.

At the opening of the conference, Ioannis Manessis, chairman of IREPAS, stated that the global steel industry is operating in an increasingly challenging environment characterized by geopolitical conflicts, shifting trade flows, higher costs and relatively weak demand. According to the IREPAS chairman, the deteriorating situations in the Black Sea and Iran are having a significant impact on steel markets and international trade. Damage to ports and vessels’ reluctance to sail have made trade in the Black Sea extremely difficult, while attacks on bulk carriers and oil tankers have also created significant challenges for trade in the Middle East.

Against this backdrop, energy prices, including oil, natural gas and coal prices, have increased, in some cases significantly. Manessis noted that these increases are raising costs for steel producers, scrap suppliers and shipping companies, affecting the entire steel value chain.

At the same time, the industry is facing an increasingly restrictive global trade environment. The IREPAS chairman highlighted the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its safeguard measures implemented after July 1, US tariffs, scrap trade restrictions in around 40 countries worldwide and other trade measures affecting steel markets. He also pointed to China’s recent efforts to prevent its steel industry from offering products at excessively low or loss-making prices, stating that these measures already appear to be having an impact on the market.

Meanwhile, higher interest rates are putting additional pressure on consumers as authorities seek to contain inflation. Manessis stated that, apart from demand related to the expansion of artificial intelligence data centers, global demand for steel products remains relatively weak.

According to the IREPAS chairman, demand is therefore not currently determining the direction of the market, with rising costs instead becoming the key factor. As a result, steel prices are increasing in almost all markets despite weak demand. Manessis added that, although the current environment remains difficult to navigate, higher prices are allowing trade to continue and creating opportunities for market participants.

On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.

Producers at IREPAS: Trade barriers and overcapacity are fragmenting global steel markets

Steel producers remain cautiously optimistic despite challenging international trade conditions, while energy and raw material costs are expected to continue putting pressure on mills at least through the end of the winter, according to Alex Gordienko, export director at Spain’s CELSA Group, speaking on behalf of the producers committee.

Mr. Gordienko said that regions face different challenges, with European producers particularly affected by energy-related issues. Nevertheless, producers continue to see underlying domestic demand and remain somewhat more optimistic than current market conditions might suggest.

India expected to remain focused on domestic market

Commenting on the rise in Indian steel demand and the decline in the country’s export activity, Gordienko pointed to significant infrastructure investments and rapidly growing construction demand, while India’s steel production capacity is also increasing. He said he expects India to remain primarily focused on its domestic market over the next five years.

Regarding Southeast Asian suppliers, Gordienko said they will remain competitive internationally, though increasingly selective about their target markets. Their presence is expected to remain significant in the MENA region, while access to the EU will be more difficult due to quota restrictions.

EU needs favorable investment conditions as well as trade protection

Turning to Europe, Gordienko said there is significant potential demand from housing, electricity generation, data centers and defense investments, as well as the replacement of aging infrastructure. However, bureaucratic barriers are preventing these needs from translating into actual construction and investment.

According to Gordienko, the EU has become increasingly effective at protecting its steel market, but less successful in creating economic conditions that make steel production and investment attractive. Safeguards and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) provide some protection, but cannot compensate for issues such as insufficient or expensive energy supply.

Overcapacity and trade barriers to fragment global markets

Addressing global overcapacity, Gordienko said governments increasingly want to preserve domestic steelmaking capacity even when mills struggle to generate profits, while new capacity continues to emerge in several regions.

He said he sees no realistic global mechanism capable of effectively regulating excess capacity. As trade barriers increase, surplus steel will have access to fewer export destinations, increasing the pressure on markets that remain open. At the same time, protected markets could experience temporary shortages and price increases despite substantial global excess capacity.

Gordienko said fragmentation is also changing the traditional steel market cycle. Instead of one broadly synchronized global cycle, individual regions are increasingly likely to follow their own cycles as trade barriers, domestic policies and local market conditions gain importance.

Looking ahead to 2027, he identified fragmentation as a key issue, encompassing overcapacity, Chinese exports and growing trade barriers, with market participants increasingly needing to focus on developments in their own domestic markets.

Traders at IREPAS: Trade barriers and freight risks make steel trade more regional

F.D. Baysal, chairman and CEO of SEBA Group of Companies and chairman of the traders committee, shared the committee’s assessment of current market conditions, highlighting weakening demand, regulatory pressures and rising geopolitical risks.

Mr. Baysal stated that steel trade is becoming more regional as tariffs, freight risks and additional import requirements complicate transactions. Presenting the findings of the IREPAS traders committee, Baysal said China had reduced steel production but continued to export large volumes. He stated that export licensing and VAT-related changes had altered the composition of its exports, with a greater share of long products. Continued weakness in China’s real estate sector has left surplus production seeking overseas markets, he added.

Freight risks complicate steel trade in Middle East

Baysal described freight conditions as volatile, stating that shipping from Asia to Europe has remained relatively soft, while finding vessels for shipments to and from the Middle East has become difficult. War-risk premiums and higher bunker costs have added to the challenges faced by traders.

Regarding trade in the GCC region, Baysal said decisions can no longer be based solely on the price of steel and its shipping cost. Traders must also consider insurance, changing transit times and uncertainty over whether cargoes will arrive as planned. He stated that he expects logistics to remain a significant issue. Baysal said geopolitical freight premiums are not necessarily permanent. What has changed more durably, in his view, is the need to account for geopolitical risks in every transaction. Shipping routes, additional premiums and the working capital tied up in delayed cargoes have become part of traders’ calculations.

High interest rates weigh on US steel demand

Baysal pointed out that higher interest rates are weighing on US commercial and residential construction and on demand for steel products used in those sectors. However, infrastructure, data centers, energy projects and manufacturing investment continue to consume steel. He noted that large infrastructure and data center projects are supplied mainly by domestic mills.

Against this background, Baysal said traders favor disciplined purchasing and low inventories. Back-to-back transactions are more attractive than speculative stockholding when financing is expensive and tariffs, quotas, freight and regional market conditions can change.

Capacity-demand gap and trade measures seen as interconnected risks

Although steel remains a cyclical industry, Baysal said its underlying trade structure has changed. Capacity growth, trade barriers and geopolitical risks have fragmented the market, requiring traders to identify opportunities in individual regions rather than rely on price differences alone.

Looking ahead to 2027, he described the gap between steel capacity and demand, and the trade measures that may result from it, as interconnected risks.

Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Rising costs and trade barriers put pressure on raw material flows

Jens Björkman from Stena Metal International and chairman of the raw material suppliers committee shared the committee’s assessments of current dynamics and difficulties in global raw material markets during a panel session.

Mr. Björkman stated that higher freight, energy and financing costs, together with potential restrictions on scrap exports, are putting pressure on the steelmaking raw material trade. Presenting the findings of the IREPAS raw material suppliers committee, Björkman said coking coal prices had risen by around 60 percent within a few months. He also pointed to strong raw material demand in the US during the first part of 2026 and growth in India. In Europe, in contrast, high energy costs have added to the challenges facing the industry, he stated.

Low Rhine water levels disrupt European scrap and steel movements

Björkman said the low water levels of the River Rhine, comparable to those seen in 2018, have disrupted movements of scrap and steel in Europe. Some material has remained in inventories instead of reaching its destinations, causing business to be postponed. He described European steel capacity utilization of around 65 percent as unsustainable.

Regarding coking coal, Björkman said the summer price surge was driven particularly by conditions in China and had also lifted Australian prices. Chinese demand has since eased somewhat, he said. Although he cited an increase of around six percent in Indian production this year, he does not expect it to offset weaker Chinese demand. Björkman therefore sees a slightly negative outlook for coking coal prices in the coming months and said the earlier surge may prove temporary in the short term.

Trade disruptions affect scrap purchases in India and Pakistan

Turning to import scrap markets in India and Pakistan, Björkman said disruptions to trade flows have had a substantial effect on purchasing. Buyers who previously could purchase smaller quantities with shorter lead times have had to consider larger volumes and longer delivery periods. Higher freight and financing costs make those changes more difficult, he explained. He added that demand for European material has increased.

The chairman of the raw material suppliers committee expressed concern about proposed changes affecting EU shipments of ferrous and non-ferrous material to non-OECD countries. North Africa and South Asia are significant and consistent buyers of European material, he said. In his view, restrictions could affect both their ability to purchase scrap from the EU and recycling activity within Europe.

Financing raw material trade has also become more difficult throughout the supply chain, according to Björkman. Higher interest rates, freight costs and raw material prices are encouraging companies to keep lead times short, buy according to immediate requirements and avoid accumulating large inventories.

Scrap to remain principal raw material for EAF-based producers

On the future raw material mix for electric arc furnace-based producers, Björkman said scrap will remain the principal input. HBI and DRI can supplement scrap, but he does not expect them to replace it. Their cost is a constraint in many regions, while energy availability influences where they can be produced. Björkman also questioned whether Europe could depend on supplies from the GCC given regional and political uncertainties.

Trade barriers seen as key risk for scrap market in 2027

Björkman said Europe has sufficient scrap for its own steelmakers and has opposed adding further restrictions and administrative requirements to its export trade.

Asked about the risks facing the market in 2027, he identified increasing trade barriers as a particular concern for scrap suppliers. Björkman expects trade to become more regional, with European exporters facing additional requirements.

For Vietnam, the DOC determined a net countervailable subsidy rate of 6.80 percent for Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company and 6.80 percent for all other Vietnamese exporters.

For Egypt, the DOC determined a net countervailable subsidy rate of 23.27 percent for the Ezz Group, comprising Al-Ezz Dekheila Steel Alexandria Company (SAE), Ezz Steel Company S.A.E., Ezz Rolling Mills Company (SAE), Al-Ezz Flat Steel Company (SAE), Contra Steel Co., and Al-Ezz Group Holding Company for Industry & Investment. The DOC also determined a rate of 23.27 percent for all other Egyptian exporters.

The subject merchandise is provided for in subheadings 7213.10.0000, 7214.20.0000, and 7228.30.8010 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS).

The CVD orders are applicable as of September 18, 2026, the date of publication in the Federal Register.

The current antidumping duties on rebar from the countries in question are at

• 20.3 percent for Algeria,
• 23.1 percent for Egypt, Italy, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam,
• 21.8 percent for Indonesia,
• 8 percent for Oman
• 45.0 percent for Russia

The Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT) will now conduct an inquiry to determine whether the expiry of its findings is likely to result in injury to the Canadian industry and has announced that it will issue its decision no later than February 24, 2027.

The products under review currently fall under Harmonized System (HS) tariff classification numbers

• 7213.10.00.11,
• 7213.10.00.12,
• 7213.10.00.13,
• 7213.10.00.90,
• 7214.20.00.11,
• 7214.20.00.12,
• 7214.20.00.13,
• 7214.20.00.14,
• 7214.20.00.21,
• 7214.20.00.22,
• 7214.20.00.23,
• 7214.20.00.24,
• 7214.20.00.31,
• 7214.20.00.32,
• 7214.20.00.33,
• 7214.20.00.34,
• 7214.20.00.90,
• 7215.90.00.20,
• 7215.90.00.30,
• 7227.90.00.50,
• 7228.30.00.51,
• 7228.30.00.52
• 7228.30.00.53

The orders follow affirmative final determinations by the DOC and the US International Trade Commission (ITC), which determined that a US industry is materially injured by reason of dumped imports of rebar from the three countries.

For Bulgaria, the DOC determined a weighted-average dumping margin of 53.27 percent for Promet Steel JSC and all others.

For Egypt, the DOC determined a weighted-average dumping margin of 34.20 percent for the Ezz Steel group of companies and all others, and 52.73 percent for El Marakby Steel and Suez Steel Company, based on adverse facts available.

For Vietnam, the DOC determined a weighted-average dumping margin of 128.53 percent for the Hoa Phat group of companies, with a cash deposit rate of 123.49 percent after adjustment for export subsidy offsets, and a Vietnam-wide rate of 136.57 percent, based on adverse facts available.

According to the government notice, the antidumping measure will remain in place until January 28, 2031. The TRA recommended maintaining the existing duty rates, as it did not consider it appropriate to recalculate the antidumping amounts during the expiry review.

Under the extended measure, Chinese producer Valin Group will remain subject to an antidumping duty of 7.9 percent, while all other Chinese exporters will continue to face antidumping duty of 24 percent.

The TRA launched the expiry review on January 28, 2026, which covered the period between October 1, 2024 to September 30, 2025. According to the TRA, the review indicates that dumping and injury to the UK industry would likely continue or recur if the existing measures were allowed to expire.

The subject products currently fall under the codes

• 7213 10 00,
• 7213 20 00,
• 7213 91 10,
• 7213 91 20,
• 7213 91 41,
• 7213 91 49,
• 7213 91 70,
• 7213 91 90,
• 7213 99 10,
• 7213 99 90,
• 7227 10 00,
• 7227 20 00,
• 7227 90 10,
• 7227 90 50
• 7227 90 95